推动更多资金资源"投资于人"、服务于民生，让发展成果更多更公平惠及全体人民 读懂"投资于人"的重要意义，不妨从投资需要、投资回报、投资基础这三个角度来看。 经济越发展，民生工作越要抓好。把更多民生清单转化为投资清单，让"投资于人"管当前又利长远，量 力而行、久久为功，终将绽放长期收益，发展成果将更多更公平惠及全体人民。 首先，"投资于人"有需要。比如就业，今年我国高校毕业生规模创新高、脱贫人口务工规模要保持在 3000万人以上，就业压力加大，迫切需要更多稳岗支持；再说住房，城镇化进程中，大量老旧社区急需 维护改造；还有养老，我国老龄化快速加深，而养老护理缺口仍然很大。进入高质量发展阶段，人民对 美好生活的向往更加强烈，对这些急难愁盼问题和结构性矛盾，特别是具有长期性、复杂性、艰巨性的 民生痛点，有必要加大力度推动解决。 （文章来源：人民日报） 其次，"投资于人"有回报。惠民生也是稳经济、促发展。比如科技创新，今年以来国产人工智能大模型 惊艳世界，美国麦克罗波洛智库报告指出，"中国高校几乎培养了全球一半的顶尖人工智能人才。"创新 驱动实质靠人才驱动，人才红利则源自教育耕耘。我国财政性教育经费投入占国内生产总值比 ...

增持（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 钢铁 约束供给扩大消费 行情回顾（4.28-4.30）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,528.72 点，下跌 0.52%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.09pct，位列 30 个中信 一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：受假期影响本周交易日有限，海外交易市场贵金属价格出现一定的调整，黑色商 品则依然震荡。根据财联社，宝钢回应近期钢铁市场传闻行业将限产 5000 万吨以应对近年 来市场供需结构的变化是大概率事件，但随后黑色商品价格表现平淡，行业内对今年限产落 实疑虑较大。由于过去在执行中存在一定的落实障碍，加之今年的监督和奖惩还缺少更多的 细节，市场抱有一定的疑虑是正常的。中国"内卷"很大原因是由于地方政府尤其青睐重资 产的制造业，一是因为投资规模大，对 GDP 拉动作用明显；二是因为增值税在生产环节征 收，跟生产规模直接挂钩；三是因为制造业不仅可以吸纳从农业部门转移出的低技能劳动力， 也可以带动第三产业发展，增加相关税收。因为绝大多数税收征收自企业，且多在生产环节 征收，所以过去地方政府重视企业 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 05 年 月 日 钢铁 约束供给扩大消费 行情回顾（4.28-4.30）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,528.72 点，下跌 0.52%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.09pct，位列 30 个中信 一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：受假期影响本周交易日有限，海外交易市场贵金属价格出现一定的调整，黑色商 品则依然震荡。根据财联社，宝钢回应近期钢铁市场传闻行业将限产 5000 万吨以应对近年 来市场供需结构的变化是大概率事件，但随后黑色商品价格表现平淡，行业内对今年限产落 实疑虑较大。由于过去在执行中存在一定的落实障碍，加之今年的监督和奖惩还缺少更多的 细节，市场抱有一定的疑虑是正常的。中国"内卷"很大原因是由于地方政府尤其青睐重资 产的制造业，一是因为投资规模大，对 GDP 拉动作用明显；二是因为增值税在生产环节征 收，跟生产规模直接挂钩；三是因为制造业不仅可以吸纳从农业部门转移出的低技能劳动力， 也可以带动第三产业发展，增加相关税收。因为绝大多数税收征收自企业，且多在生产环节 征收，所以过去地方政府重视企业而相对轻视民生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting emphasizes expanding consumption and highlights investment opportunities in the travel chain for the upcoming May Day holiday, with a focus on service consumption as a key driver for domestic demand growth [1] - The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with significant growth in travel bookings and a notable increase in cross-border travel demand [1][2] - The report suggests that the combination of policy support and market demand will likely propel the tourism market into a new phase, recommending attention to investment opportunities in the travel chain [1] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The CITIC retail index rose by 0.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points [2][16] - The retail sector ranked 14th among 30 CITIC primary industries this week, with supermarkets and convenience stores showing the largest gains [2][23] Industry Dynamics Tracking - Notable developments include the opening of Aldi's first store in Wuxi, Hema achieving its first annual profit, and the cancellation of the "refund only" policy by major e-commerce platforms [3][41] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: 1. Recovery in gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks, with recommendations for companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng [4] 2. Gradual recovery in offline sales due to consumption-promoting policies, with a focus on traditional supermarkets like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. Optimized competition landscape in the e-commerce sector, with recommendations for platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4] Industry Data Tracking - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.09 trillion yuan, growing by 5.9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in online retail sales [27][29] - The report highlights the resilience of essential consumer goods and the mixed performance of discretionary spending categories [33][39]

其次，随着美国关税政策的影响边际递减，投资者风险偏好逐渐回升，加之中国政府实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，这些都有助于提升市场的整体情绪，进 而可能促进科技板块的表现。 此外，科技板块作为自主可控程度较高的行业，受益于国家政策的支持，特别是在科技创新、扩大消费 等方面，这为科技企业提供了良好的发展环境。 今日，港股科技盘中走低，新能源、医药、通信集体回调，港股科技ETF（513020）跌1.6%，网罗港股 互联网+硬科技龙头，资金持续布局中，连续4日净流入额超1.3亿元，今年来份额增长超130%。 银河证券表示，从估值角度来看，截至4月17日，资讯科技业的PE估值处于2019年以来40%分位数以 下，表明该行业估值处于历史中低水平，这意味着相对于历史估值，当前科技板块具有一定的估值吸引 力。 港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪中证港股通科技指数，包括互联网、新能源车、芯片、生物医药和创新药 等核心科技板块，代表了中国科技资产的整体投资价值。相比于恒生科技指数，港股通科技指数在科技 领域布局更均衡，能更好把握成长板块的投资机会。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过港股科技ET ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the establishment of new structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, which is a detailed deployment of moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - Structural monetary policy tools have become an important means to support the real economy, combining both total and structural functions, and ensuring the effective allocation of central bank funds to specific sectors [1][2] - As of the end of Q1 2025, there are 10 structural monetary policy tools in existence with a total balance of 5.9 trillion yuan, covering key areas such as real estate and capital markets [1][2] Group 2 - Supporting technological innovation through structural monetary policy tools can provide low-cost funding for enterprises, facilitating R&D activities and enhancing overall economic competitiveness [2] - Consumption plays a fundamental role in economic growth, and expanding consumption can effectively stimulate domestic demand, especially as residents' income levels rise [2] - The meeting highlighted the establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loans," indicating the potential for service consumption to grow significantly, with current service consumption accounting for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead, structural monetary policy tools are expected to continue optimizing and enhancing their effectiveness, working in conjunction with total monetary policy tools to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for high-quality economic development [3]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive economic start[5] - The need for robust policies to stabilize the economic recovery amidst increasing external shocks is emphasized[5] Fiscal Policy - The new local government special bond limit for 2025 is set at CNY 44,000 billion, an increase of CNY 5,000 billion from the previous year, marking the largest scale since 2015[6] - As of April 25, 2025, CNY 11,372 billion of special bonds have been issued, achieving 25.8% of the annual plan[6] Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on timely adjustments such as potential rate cuts[9] - Social financing stock increased by 8.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with new social financing amounting to CNY 15.2 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.4 trillion compared to the previous year[9] Consumer Spending - Final consumption expenditure contributed 51.7% to economic growth in Q1 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points[11] - Over 120 million people have benefited from subsidies under the "old for new" policy, leading to sales exceeding CNY 720 billion[12] Real Estate Market - In March 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1%, marking five consecutive months of stabilization[16] - The government is focusing on urban renewal and improving housing quality, with new standards set to take effect on May 1, 2025[17]

央广网北京4月23日消息（记者 樊瑞）21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛（下称CF40）发布2025年第一季度宏观政策报告。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世 界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，在扩大消费的政策选择与排序中，最优先和最见成效的是逆周期政策，可带动全社会收入和消费在短期内显著增加。 降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是逆周期政策的重点内容。 对于降准降息将在何时落地，张斌在接受央广财经记者提问时表示，"央行强调适时降准降息，具体要看经济数据还有中央统一部署。我觉得不会太远。" 推进促消费一揽子方案循序落实 张斌指出，在当下的国内外环境下，提振消费的重要性得到凸显。张斌介绍，过去二十年中国居民消费率经历"下降—上升—再下降"的三阶段波动，主要由 消费倾向变化与初次分配收入占比变化驱动。消费率变化背后的主导因素是工业化潮起带来2000-2010年的消费率下降，潮落带来2010年以后的消费率上 升，疫情带来短暂的消费率再次下降但并不改变消费率上升趋势。 CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌 提振消费是扩大内需、做大做强国内大循环的重中之重。3月16日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining a medium-speed economic growth rate to cross the high-income threshold, with a target growth rate of 5% set by the government, despite challenges faced in achieving this goal [2][3][4] - The current economic situation shows that China is close to the high-income threshold but has not yet crossed it, with a gap that has slightly widened over the past four years due to factors such as the pandemic, low prices, and currency depreciation [2][3] - The World Bank's dynamic adjustment of the high-income threshold indicates that China's per capita income growth must exceed 4% annually to meet this standard, highlighting the need for vigilance regarding potential risks [3][4] Group 2 - The article identifies structural issues in China's consumption, noting a nearly 20 percentage point gap in consumption as a share of GDP compared to the OECD average, indicating a significant structural bias rather than a mere average difference [4][5] - Factors contributing to insufficient consumption include a long-standing policy inclination towards investment over consumption, low levels of public services, and significant disparities in pension systems between urban and rural populations [5][6] - The urbanization rate in China is approximately 67%, with a significant gap in urban household registration, which affects service consumption and highlights the need for improved urbanization to enhance service availability [6][7] Group 3 - The article discusses the high proportion of government-held assets in China, which is about 38%, compared to less than 10% in OECD countries, suggesting that this wealth concentration has historically favored investment over consumption [7][8] - Economic growth can be analyzed through two dimensions: height (efficiency and quality of growth) and width (effective demand across society), with the latter being hindered by income inequality [8][9] - Recent innovations in technology, such as AI and humanoid robots, are seen as promising but may exacerbate income disparities and highlight the need for addressing the width of economic growth [9][10] Group 4 - The article stresses the importance of addressing the structural bias in consumption, aiming to reduce the gap in consumption as a share of GDP by 15 percentage points in the near term [12][13] - Recommendations include accelerating urbanization, narrowing income disparities, and enhancing social security systems, particularly pensions, to stimulate consumption [12][13] - Specific measures proposed include reallocating funds to increase rural pensions significantly, which could enhance consumption and support GDP growth, demonstrating a high consumption propensity among low-income groups [14][15]

升级商品消费，稳住消费大盘。目前，商品消费存在的主要问题是消费能力、消费意愿偏弱，有效 需求受到制约。商务部将重点从需求端着手，着力挖掘商品更新升级需求。今年以来，加力扩围实施消 费品以旧换新的政策成效逐步显现。截至3月24日，全国汽车以旧换新申请量合计超过150万份；消费者 购买12大类家电以旧换新产品超过2800万台，4500多万名消费者申请了5600多万件手机等数码产品的购 新补贴，电动自行车以旧换新已经超过220万辆。李刚表示，商务部将抓好政策落地实施，密切跟踪督 导、优化便民服务，畅通回收链条，加大宣传推广力度，让"真金白银"更高效更便捷直达消费者。 扩大服务消费，挖掘消费增量。服务消费增长较快、潜力巨大，但是一些领域供给存在短板，特别 是"一老一小"、家政服务等领域优质供给不足。商务部服贸司副司长王波表示，从今年起，商务部将牵 头实施服务消费提质惠民行动，围绕文化、旅游、养老、托幼、健康、体育、生活服务等服务消费重点 领域，从支持政策、促进活动、平台载体、对外开放、标准引领、发展环境等方面提出一批务实举措， 发挥部门合力，切实提升服务品质，改善消费体验，不断增强人民群众的获得感。 培育新型消费，增 ...