Group 1 - The retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in July are expected to reach approximately 1.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% and a month-on-month decline of 11.2% [1] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to be around 1.01 million units, with a penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6% [1] - The lithium carbonate futures prices continue to rise, indicating ongoing high attention on the "anti-involution" trend [1] Group 2 - The CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index consists of 50 listed companies involved in various aspects of the new energy vehicle industry, reflecting the overall performance of leading companies in this sector [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index account for 55.74% of the index, including companies like CATL, BYD, and Tianqi Lithium [2] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF closely tracks the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index and includes various connection funds [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the energy metal sector is experiencing a strong performance, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" market trend, with significant representation from the new energy vehicle industry index [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) has risen by 1.51%, with notable increases in stocks such as Defu Technology (301511) up 6.76%, Huayou Cobalt (603799) up 6.23%, and Tianqi Lithium (002466) also seeing gains [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) has increased by 1.54%, with a recent price of 1.78 yuan, and has shown a cumulative increase of 4.67% over the past week, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) include CATL (300750), Huichuan Technology (300124), BYD (002594), and others, collectively accounting for 55.74% of the index [2] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) has various off-market connections, including Ping An's New Energy Vehicle ETF Connect A (012698), C (012699), and E (024504) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth in the Chinese passenger car market, with retail sales reaching 978,000 units from July 1-20, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, although it shows a 12% decline compared to the previous month [1] - The cumulative retail sales for the year amount to 11.88 million units, also reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - In the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, retail sales reached 537,000 units during the same period, marking a 23% year-on-year increase, while the penetration rate for NEVs stands at 54.9% [1] Group 2 - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) has seen a 0.87% increase, with notable stock performances from companies such as Defu Technology (up 7.89%) and Huayou Cobalt (up 4.22%) [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) has risen by 0.80%, with a recent price of 1.76 yuan, and has accumulated a 4.67% increase over the past week [1] - The index includes 50 companies involved in various aspects of the NEV industry, with the top ten stocks accounting for 55.74% of the index [2]

数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证新能源汽车产业指数(930997)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代 (300750)、汇川技术(300124)、比亚迪(002594)、长安汽车(000625)、三花智控(002050)、亿纬锂能 (300014)、华友钴业(603799)、赣锋锂业(002460)、国轩高科(002074)、天齐锂业(002466)，前十大权重 股合计占比55.74%。 新能车ETF(515700)，场外联接(平安中证新能车ETF联接A：012698；平安中证新能车ETF联接C： 012699；平安中证新能车ETF联接E：024504)。 消息面上，作为中国汽车制造强省，广东、安徽将在提高产品质量管理、践行账期承诺、优化供应商货 款支付流程、抵制"网络水军"、加强行业自律等方面着手，进一步规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序。其 中，广东省有关部门表示，引导广汽集团、比亚迪、小鹏汽车等整车车企作出"供应商支付账期不超过 60天"的承诺，促进整车企业和与上游供应商合作共赢。安徽省相关主管部门表示，安徽将积极引导整 车企业落实会议精神，加强产品质量管理、践行账期承诺，深化科技创新，突破关键核心技术，提升产 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) has shown a strong increase of 1.28% as of July 22, 2025, with notable gains from stocks such as Yahua Group (002497) up 9.99%, and Funeng Technology (688567) up 7.62% [1] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (515700) has risen by 1.38%, marking its fifth consecutive increase, with the latest price reported at 1.76 yuan [1] - Over the past week, the New Energy Vehicle ETF has accumulated a rise of 3.52%, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Vehicle Industry Index include CATL (300750), Huichuan Technology (300124), BYD (002594), and others, collectively accounting for 55.74% of the index [2] - The New Energy Vehicle ETF has several off-market connection options, including Ping An's New Energy Vehicle ETF Connection A (012698), C (012699), and E (024504) [2]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Domestic News - The three departments held a seminar on the electric vehicle industry to promote sustainable development and strengthen industry supervision and self-discipline [4][5] - Chongqing government issued measures to boost consumption, including subsidies for scrapping and replacing old vehicles, and promoting online vehicle registration [6] - Chengdu's electric vehicle ownership reached 1.08 million, accounting for 15.1% of total vehicles, achieving its 2025 target ahead of schedule [7][8] - BMW established a global IT research and development center in Nanjing, marking it as the largest in Asia and the only one in China [9] - Dongfeng Group increased its investment in Lantu Automotive by 1 billion yuan, raising its stake to approximately 79.69% [10] - Land Rover announced a full luxury car tax subsidy policy for specific models purchased within a limited time [11] - Xiaopeng Motors has built over 12,700 self-operated charging piles across 420 cities, aiming for 10,000 charging stations by 2026 [12][13] - Toyota's subsidiary announced a 3.7 billion yuan investment to build a battery factory in Dalian for electric vehicles [14] International News - The UK plans to launch its first autonomous vehicle services in spring 2026, with a focus on regulatory frameworks [15] - Tesla opened its first "Supercharger restaurant" in Los Angeles, allowing customers to charge their vehicles while dining [16] - Stellantis plans to double the production capacity of its Moroccan plant to 535,000 vehicles, increasing electric vehicle output significantly [17] - Tesla's FSD will integrate technology from the Austin Robotaxi project, enhancing its capabilities [18] Commercial Vehicles - The New Energy Commercial Vehicle Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance was established to promote technological innovation and industry integration [21] - Geely's methanol hydrogen technology completed a third round of financing exceeding 200 million USD, focusing on product development and ecosystem construction [22] - The first Chinese diesel engine oil standard was published, enhancing domestic engine performance and reducing maintenance costs [23] - The new Remote Super Energy VAN model was launched in the southern region, gaining significant attention in the industry [24]

据新华社，7月16日召开的国务院常务会议明确提出，要着眼于推动新能源汽车产业高质量发展，针对该产业领域 出现的各种非理性竞争现象，坚持远近结合、综合施策，切实规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序。 该会议内容释放了清晰信号，针对新能源汽车领域愈演愈烈的非理性竞争，政府将打出"组合拳"强力纠偏。从成本 调查、价格监测到产品生产一致性监督检查，再到对车企支付账期承诺的督促，这标志着中国新能源汽车产业正迎 来从"量"走向"质"的高质量发展新阶段。 会议明确提出，要加强成本调查和价格监测，强化产品生产一致性监督检查，督促重点车企落实好支付账期承诺。 "新能源汽车产业延续快速增长态势，已经成为我国汽车市场的主导力量。但看到成绩的同时，汽车行业出现的一 些问题也不容忽视。"中国汽车工业协会常务副会长兼秘书长付炳锋接受采访时说，要综合治理各种非理性竞争现 象，坚决维护公平有序的市场环境，推动行业健康、可持续发展。 矫正畸形反内卷 中国新能源汽车产业在电动化、智能化的双重驱动下实现了蓬勃发展。据中国汽车工业协会最新发布的数据显示， 2025年上半年，我国新能源汽车产销量分别为696.8万辆和693.7万辆，同比分别增长41.4%和40 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weekly oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with a weekly increase of 8.84% and an amplitude of 10.39%. The main contract was quoted at 69,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The macro - level policy focuses on promoting the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardizing its competition order. In terms of fundamentals, the supply expectation of lithium carbonate has been repaired due to the mine rectification, and there are hedging opportunities in the futures market, with the lithium ore price rising accordingly. However, the demand side is still mainly for rigid consumption, and the spot market trading is light. The industrial inventory is at a high level and slightly accumulating [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is in a state where the expectation is repaired but the actual situation is still weak. More effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was oscillatory and slightly stronger. The closing price was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton [5][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply expectation was repaired due to mine rectification, but the actual supply might decrease. The demand was mainly rigid, and the inventory was high and accumulating [5]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillatory trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton. The near - far month inter - period spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,060 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 66,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 708 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1796, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 5,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,781 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,145.78 tons, a decrease of 7,190.11 tons from April, a decline of 25.37% and a year - on - year decline of 13.92%. The monthly export volume was 286.735 tons, a decrease of 447.55 tons from April, a decline of 60.95% and a year - on - year increase of 34.96%. As of June 2025, the monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price was 49,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 500 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price was 30,450 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and no year - on - year change [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [40]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 28,500 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [45]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [48]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.07, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, is still in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, with a slightly decreased implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,840 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,599.50 dollars/ton, down 35.50 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 153,791 hands, down 6,666 hands. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 4,039 hands, up 4,268 hands. The LME copper inventory was 121,000 tons, up 10,525 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,325 tons, down 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,035 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 51 dollars/ton, down 2.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 180 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.79 dollars/kiloton, up 0.46 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,320 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,020 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 0.048 billion tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 54,790 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 0.1185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.96%, down 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.12%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.15%, down 0.0065. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.62, up 0.0102 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting. The National Committee Chairman Wang Huning emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The US PPI in June was flat month - on - month. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [2]