2026年01月27日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 744.70 | 742.00 | 746.30 | 534.80 | 535.40 | 538.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 685.90 | 682.55 | 681.50 | 497.95 | 499.60 | 501.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 65.75 | 65.70 | 69.80 | 35.80 | 34.70 | 34.75 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 9.68% | 9.71% | 10.32% | 7.17% | 6.93% | 6.91% | | | 持仓量 ...

Group 1: Environmental Initiatives - The proposal to create the Miyun Reservoir National Park aims to enhance ecological advantages and promote local employment opportunities for farmers [4][5] - The Miyun water system is highlighted as a crucial part of the national water network, with significant contributions to flood control and water supply [4] - The average PM2.5 concentration in Miyun is projected to be 23.4 micrograms per cubic meter by 2025, the lowest in Beijing, indicating strong ecological health [4] Group 2: Hydrogen Energy Development - The hydrogen energy industry in Beijing has made significant progress, with the city being a national leader in hydrogen technology and infrastructure [5] - There is a call to include hydrogen energy in Beijing's future industrial plans, emphasizing the need for supportive policies to foster growth in this sector [5] - The development of hydrogen-powered vehicles and the establishment of hydrogen refueling stations are seen as critical steps for the future of the hydrogen industry in Beijing [5] Group 3: Waste Management and Energy Production - The current waste management strategy in Beijing has shifted from landfilling to incineration, generating nearly 14,000 tons of hazardous waste annually [6][8] - The potential to produce 48,000 tons of green hydrogen and recover 750,000 tons of liquid carbon dioxide from waste processing is highlighted, with an estimated economic benefit of around 20 billion yuan [8] - Advanced waste treatment technologies are recommended to maximize resource recovery and minimize environmental impact, transforming waste into green energy [6][8] Group 4: Urban Waterway Enhancement - The proposal includes enhancing the ecological corridors of rivers in urban areas, focusing on creating diverse and accessible waterfront spaces [9] - Suggestions for improving the green coverage along riverbanks and utilizing water features to activate urban spaces are presented [9] - The importance of balancing flood safety with the creation of recreational water spaces is emphasized, promoting a more integrated urban waterway system [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].

Group 1: Green and Low-Carbon Development - The Beijing Municipal Political Consultative Conference emphasizes the importance of creating a green, low-carbon, and livable environment, suggesting the acceleration of hydrogen energy cold chain vehicle commercialization as a key initiative [1] - Liu Zuoli, a member of the conference, advocates for strengthening green technology innovation and establishing strategic partnerships to support the development of a green technology market ecosystem [1] - Recommendations include the establishment of green technology validation centers and the implementation of advanced technology demonstration projects to address challenges in green development [1] Group 2: Cultural Innovation and Tourism - The conference highlights the role of new cultural formats in driving tourism consumption, with a focus on creating unique, epic-level cultural IPs to enhance Beijing's cultural landscape [2] - Suggestions include developing immersive large-scale performances that integrate daytime tourism with evening shows to transform the city's consumption patterns [2] - The use of technology, such as VR and AR, is recommended to enhance cultural experiences and promote digital cultural brands [2] Group 3: Rural Revitalization - The conference discusses the potential of Beijing's rural areas, emphasizing the need to leverage new media for promoting agricultural products and intangible cultural heritage [3] - Recommendations include using short videos and live streaming to connect traditional farming stories with products, creating a platform for rural services [3] - There is a call to break down regional and operational barriers to develop a comprehensive rural tourism industry, focusing on creating micro-vacation destinations that cater to urban residents' leisure needs [3][4]

证券日报网讯 1月26日，美锦能源在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司当前专注于煤焦化工和氢能 两大主业。其中，氢能作为"十五五"规划明确的未来产业，整体仍处于示范应用和商业模式逐步成熟阶 段。公司正依托自身煤焦资源基础和"煤—焦—气—化—氢"一体化产业链优势，持续推进"碳氢协同"发 展路径，在夯实现有煤焦主业稳定经营的同时，探索氢能与传统产业在制氢、能源利用效率提升及减碳 降碳方面的协同融合，稳步推进制氢、储运、加氢及下游应用场景布局，并在部分环节已形成一定先发 和协同优势。氢能业务对公司业绩的影响将与行业发展进程、应用场景落地及商业化节奏密切相关，公 司将在注重风险可控和经济性的前提下，有序推进相关项目建设与运营，持续培育新的增长动能，稳步 释放长期内在价值。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - term bullish logic for platinum and palladium is solid, driven by the resonance of macro - finance and industrial fundamentals. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to Trump's policy swings and geopolitical news, the core upward momentum remains intact, and the medium - and long - term upward trend is clear [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 685.90, 682.55, and 681.50 respectively, with price increases of 64.55, 60.55, and 59.05 and increases of 10.39%, 9.73%, and 9.49% respectively. The trading volumes are 25095, 861, and 508, and the open interests are all 11180 [1] - For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 497.95, 499.60, and 501.00 respectively, with price increases of 19.05, 19.40, and 13.65 and increases of 3.98%, 4.04%, and 2.80% respectively. The trading volumes are 11027, 292, and 42, and the open interests are all 4087 [1] Spot Market - For platinum in Shanghai, the previous closing price was 681.50, with a price increase of 57.10 and an increase of 0.091%. For London platinum, the previous closing price was 2705.00, with a price increase of 198.00 and an increase of 0.079%. For Zhou Dafu platinum, the previous closing price was 1051.00, with a price increase of 96.00 and an increase of 0.101%. For Lao Fengxiang platinum, the previous closing price was 950.00, with a price increase of 90.00 and an increase of 0.105% [1] - For Chinese palladium, the previous closing price was 470.00, with a price increase of 25.00 and an increase of 0.056%. For Russian palladium, the previous closing price was 4569.11, with a price decrease of 83.81 and a decrease of 0.018% [1] Inventory - For platinum, the NYMEX inventory remains at 665,888.20 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3784.0 ounces to 338,089.85 ounces. The trading volume of the Gold Exchange decreased by 6.0 kilograms to 2.00 kilograms, and the trading value decreased by 363.2 million yuan to 136.30 million yuan [1] - For palladium, the NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 216,266.31 ounces and 144,029.47 ounces respectively [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - The current value of the US dollar index is 97.51, a decrease of 0.7725 from the previous value. The S&P 500 index is at 6,915.61, an increase of 2.2600. The US Treasury yield is 4.24, a decrease of 0.0200. The Nasdaq index is 23,501.24, an increase of 65.2200. The Dow Jones index is 49,098.71, a decrease of 285.3000. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.99, a decrease of 0.0090 [1] - For Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 1115.64, 1118.38, and 1121.02 respectively, with price increases of 28.06, 28.00, and 28.00. For Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608), the current prices are 24965.00, 24930.00, and 24929.00 respectively, with price increases of 1626, 1633, and 1647 [1] Macroeconomic News - The successor to the Fed Chair is a market concern. Trump may announce the new candidate this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated, up from 4%. [2] - The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Lute. The original tariff measures will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks and a plunge in spot silver. The EU emergency summit will be held on January 22 [2] - The US Trade Representative hopes to have another round of trade negotiations with China, and China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson called for implementing the consensus of the two heads of state [2] - The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including building the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving service quality [2] Analysis of Platinum and Palladium - On the macro level, Powell's criminal prosecution weakens the US dollar's credit, increasing the pressure on US Treasury bonds. The global de - dollarization process speeds up, enhancing the reserve and hedging value of platinum and palladium. The Polish central bank's gold - buying plan supports the precious metals sector. The expected Fed rate cuts will boost platinum and palladium valuations, and the Greenland geopolitical risk provides short - term support for hedging demand [2] - On the industrial side, platinum has strong upward momentum. The hydrogen energy industry boom drives up demand, and the supply is constrained by South African production capacity. Palladium is affected by electrification but has demand support from hybrid vehicle penetration and emission policies, with a tight spot market balancing prices [2]

1月23日，海外铂期货价格突破2600美元/盎司，并创出新高，海外钯期货价格则逼近2000美元/盎司关 口。与此同时，广期所铂、钯期价同样强势上涨。截至昨日收盘，铂期货主力合约2606上涨10.39%， 报685.9元/克；钯期货主力合约2606上涨3.98%，报497.95元/克。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达认为，铂、钯期价上涨是海外市场避险情绪升温、金属板块整体强势、基本 面偏强等因素共同作用的结果。 曾可介绍，钯需求高度依赖汽车尾气催化剂（占比超80%）。"受新能源汽车加速发展与铂替代趋势明 显的双重压制，钯需求增长缺乏想象空间。虽然短期钯仍存在供应缺口，但预计2026年缺口将大幅收 窄，基本面对其价格支撑有限。"他说。 展望后市，顾冯达认为，金属市场将走出历史级别"牛市"，但板块强弱分化明显且波动大。其中，可将 铂视为战术性进攻选择。若供应紧张局面持续，其价格有望挑战更高位置。至于钯，则应保持谨慎，其 基本面支撑相对较弱，更多是跟随板块整体情绪运行。顾冯达提醒，虽然行情火热，但投资者需清醒认 识相关风险，当前铂价上涨已计入较多乐观预期，任何宏观预期的边际变化或地缘政治局势的缓和都可 能使部分获利资金了结 ...

1月23日，海外铂期货价格突破2600美元/盎司，并创出新高，海外钯期货价格则逼近2000美元/盎司关 口。与此同时，广期所铂、钯期价同样强势上涨。截至昨日收盘，铂期货主力合约2606上涨10.39%， 报685.9元/克；钯期货主力合约2606上涨3.98%，报497.95元/克。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达认为，铂、钯期价上涨是海外市场避险情绪升温、金属板块整体强势、基本 面偏强等因素共同作用的结果。 记者注意到，海外铂现货租赁市场的年化利率已飙升至35%的历史高位。对此，顾冯达认为，这一情况 说明市场确实存在"一铂难求"的现象。 曾可认为，在铂价上涨背景下，投资需求显著提升，同时氢能产业与商业航天等新兴领域打开长期成长 空间，预计2026年铂仍将延续供不应求的态势，缺口可能会进一步扩大。 虽然铂、钯同属铂族金属，但供需前景存在差异。顾冯达介绍，钯的供需面远弱于铂。虽然钯价短期受 金属板块带动上涨，但其需求严重依赖内燃机汽车，当下电动化转型将对其构成长期压制。相关机构预 测，2026年钯市场可能会小幅过剩。 曾可介绍，钯需求高度依赖汽车尾气催化剂(占比超80%)。"受新能源汽车加速发展与铂替代趋势明显的 双 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Direction - The company introduced its development history, competitive advantages, and strategic transformation across four business segments, focusing on industrial gases and hydrogen energy expansion [2][4]. - The gas operation business has achieved significant results, with projects like the Inner Mongolia helium extraction and nitrogen production for lithium iron phosphate plants completed [2][3]. Group 2: Industrial Gas Operations - The company plans to drive gas operations through "self-investment + mergers and acquisitions," primarily in Sichuan, gradually expanding nationwide [2][4]. - The company aims to leverage upstream mineral and clean energy resources to enhance downstream industrial advantages and economic benefits [2][4]. Group 3: Hydrogen Energy Development - A clear development plan for the hydrogen energy industry has been established, focusing on deep low-temperature liquid hydrogen technology and extensive application scenarios [4][5]. - The company has developed a 5 tons/day hydrogen liquefaction capacity and is working on a 30 tons/day large-scale liquefaction technology, achieving leading energy consumption levels domestically [5][6]. Group 4: Partnerships and Collaborations - The company has formed a joint venture with Toyota, establishing Sichuan Shudao Toyota Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of CNY 236 million [8]. - Collaborations with various institutions, including Southwest Jiaotong University and Tsinghua University, have been initiated to accelerate technology transfer and innovation [11][12]. Group 5: Hydrogen Energy Products and Projects - The company has developed a series of hydrogen energy equipment products and initiated several influential demonstration projects, including hydrogen refueling stations in Hubei and Sichuan [6][7]. - The company is actively exploring hydrogen energy applications in low-altitude economy and hydrogen-powered locomotives, focusing on new fueling models [9][10]. Group 6: Policy and Market Strategy - The company is aligning its hydrogen energy initiatives with national and regional policies, particularly in the context of the "dual carbon" goals, to support industry development [10][12]. - Efforts are being made to establish a cooperative ecosystem within the hydrogen energy industry, covering all aspects from production to application [12].

Core Insights - Hydrogen energy is positioned as a strategic emerging industry in China, essential for driving green energy transformation and supporting carbon neutrality goals, with a focus on fostering new productive forces and economic growth [1] - The CIHC 2026 China Hydrogen Exhibition and International Hydrogen Conference will take place from March 25-27, 2026, in Beijing, marking a significant event in the global hydrogen energy landscape [1][4] Industry Development - China's hydrogen industry is transitioning from isolated technological breakthroughs to a collaborative upgrade across the entire value chain, including production, storage, transportation, and utilization [1] - The exhibition will feature an area of 50,000 square meters and is expected to attract 600 domestic and international exhibitors, showcasing a diverse range of activities including conferences, international exchanges, and product launches [3] Exhibition Highlights - The CIHC 2026 exhibition has seen a significant increase in participation, with 410 companies and institutions signed up compared to 21 in the inaugural event in 2021, reflecting its growing influence in the global green hydrogen sector [4] - Key technologies in hydrogen production, such as alkaline (ALK), proton exchange membrane (PEM), and anion exchange membrane (AEM), will be prominently featured, highlighting China's leading position in hydrogen equipment manufacturing [4] Technological Innovations - The exhibition will showcase innovations in hydrogen production technology, including large-scale electrolysis equipment and advanced membrane materials, demonstrating the industry's progress in diversification and large-scale applications [6][8] - A comprehensive display of hydrogen storage and transportation technologies will also be presented, addressing various methods such as high-pressure gas storage and liquid hydrogen transport [8] Global Market Engagement - The CIHC 2026 aims to serve as a hub for global hydrogen technology insights and market opportunities, facilitating connections between technology leaders, equipment manufacturers, and project operators [7] - The event will coincide with the 16th China International Clean Energy Expo (CEEC 2026), creating synergies between green electricity and green hydrogen sectors, enhancing the overall impact of both exhibitions [10] Buyer Engagement - The exhibition is actively inviting buyers from various sectors, including power, transportation, metallurgy, and chemicals, to create a robust ecosystem for collaboration and business opportunities [11][13] - A "global buyer map" is being developed to attract decision-makers from over 70 countries, ensuring that exhibitors engage with potential clients who have immediate procurement needs [13] Strategic Importance - CIHC 2026 is positioned as a critical platform for observing industry policies and market opportunities, linking global technological and commercial resources to accelerate the development of the hydrogen industry [14]