记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，2月3日24时国内成品油调价窗口将再度开启。受国际油价上涨影 响，国内汽、柴油价格将再度上调，这也是2026年成品油价格的第二次上调。汽、柴油零售限价每吨分 别上调205元、195元，升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上调0.16元、0.17元、0.17元。 后期来看，根据卓创资讯预计，继续关注美伊和谈情况，油价有望呈现窄幅波动行情，但是考虑到基本 面偏弱，供需过剩和库存压力较大，预计原油价格偏弱运行，下轮存在下跌可能。按照当前原油价格测 算，重新计算后的变化率或处负值范围，预计首日下调50元/吨左右。 金联创成品油分析师王延婷认为，随着春运启动，私家车出行增加，汽油需求逐步向好，加之部分用户 节前仍有备货需求，汽油需求相对坚挺。而随着户外基建项目陆续停工放假，下游开工进一步降低，柴 油需求延续平淡。另外，进入2月份，主营及地方炼厂方面检修厂家减少，整体开工负荷上涨，且主营 炼厂成品油收率明显增加，国内资源供应量相对宽裕。需求提升有限，而资源供应量增加影响下，各单 位出货压力较大，仍积极走量为主。由此来看，短期内，国内汽柴油行情存一定下行空间。 下个调价窗口在2026年2 ...

卓创资讯分析师 朱光明 [导语] 近期，随着中东局势的复杂变化，特别是美国对中东地区部署军队和航母等，加大了地区的紧 张局势，同时中东某国也在举行军演，事态扩大背景下，原油价格一度走高，内盘sc价格更是溢价明 显，出现涨停；随后美国释放和谈信号，油价回落。整体来看，油价不确定性较高，宽幅波动依然将延 续。 一、美国部署航母，威胁中东，油价多日上涨 近期两周左右时间，原油价格持续走高，以美原油为例，最低处于55美元/桶，最高涨到66美元/桶，上 涨幅度超过10美元/桶，内盘sc价格更是从410元/桶涨到500元/桶，考虑到美元走弱和人民币走强的汇率 影响，内盘溢价明显，这与中东局势紧张和中国进口原油可能中断存在较大关系。 因为目前中东局势整体可控，但是不确定性较高，虽然美国释放和谈的信号，但是美原油价格依然处于 63美元/桶附近波动，市场依然警惕可能达不成协议导致的油价再度上涨风险。因此，整体中东局势带 来的溢价问题依然存在。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 二、中东石油产量和出口均较高，军事力量主导航运安全 中 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices fell over 5% following President Trump's statement that Iran is "seriously negotiating" with Washington, indicating a potential easing of tensions with OPEC members to alleviate supply disruption concerns [1][3] - Brent crude futures dropped by 5.2% to $65.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 5.5% to $61.61 per barrel [1][3] - After experiencing the largest monthly gains since 2022 in January, where Brent oil prices rose by 16% and WTI by 13%, the recent decline is attributed to reduced risks of military action against Iran [4] Group 2 - Major oil and gas companies saw stock declines, with ExxonMobil down 1.3% and Chevron down 1.6% [4] - Other companies such as ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Diamondback Energy, and Occidental Petroleum experienced declines ranging from 2.5% to 3.6% [4] - Oilfield service providers Halliburton and Schlumberger also saw stock price drops of 3.5% and 2.8%, respectively, while refining companies Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy fell by 2% and 2.4% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices rebounded due to escalating geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran persisted over the weekend. Although Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran, no final decision has been made. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran. Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back at Israel and the US. The Iranian president showed a willingness to reconcile by meeting with the protest groups. If the US launches a military strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai month spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6] 3. Summary of Relevant Sections Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, stated that if the US initiates a war, it will be a regional conflict, not limited to one area. [3] - There was an explosion at Iran's southern Abbas Port, and Iranian media denied reports that a Revolutionary Guard commander was the target. [3] - US President Trump expressed hope that Iran would negotiate an acceptable agreement and said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US. [4] - The US and Iran have signaled their willingness to negotiate, but experts believe there are significant differences on key issues, making the negotiation prospects difficult. The current tense situation may continue for some time. [4] - OPEC+ confirmed a production increase suspension in March and will hold the next meeting on March 1st. The previous daily production cut of 1.65 million barrels may be partially or fully restored based on market conditions. [4] Inventory - In the week of January 23rd, US crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day. [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels to 13.696 million barrels per day. [17] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 2.295 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.54%. [17] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the same period last year. [17] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, an increase of 0.12%. [17] - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.642 million barrels per day, a decrease of 805,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [17] Weekly View - Crude oil prices rebounded this week due to geopolitical risks. If the US attacks Iran, oil prices may rise. Fundamentally, inventories increased, Dubai month spreads strengthened slightly after a low opening, gasoline cracking margins strengthened while diesel cracking margins fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. The price center in Q1 is expected to be high and volatile. [6]

Group 1 - The international oil prices have experienced significant volatility, with WTI prices dropping from $71.71 to $59.58 in a short period, influenced by geopolitical factors and OPEC's unexpected decision to increase production [1][3] - Market sentiment has shifted, with speculative capital heavily shorting oil, leading to a tenfold increase in put option prices, creating a vicious cycle of capital withdrawal from the oil market [3] - The current oil price fluctuations are primarily driven by policy factors rather than historical events like the shale oil revolution or the pandemic-induced demand collapse [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions, such as the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, add uncertainty to oil prices, with possible scenarios leading to significant price increases or decreases [3][4] - Oil companies are facing challenges as upstream profitability is squeezed, requiring reassessment of project viability, while refining companies must balance raw material cost reductions with market demand [3] - The low oil price environment may delay the green transition for the traditional energy sector, as the cost advantages of fossil fuels could hinder investments in renewable energy [3] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest oil importer, spends over $100 billion annually on crude oil imports, and while lower oil prices can improve the international balance of payments, there are risks associated with over-reliance on external oil sources [4] - The market is divided on future oil price predictions, with some analysts suggesting a potential rebound to $70 if OPEC agrees on compensatory production cuts, while others warn of a drop to the $30-$40 range if trade tensions persist [6] - New variables, such as potential changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and geopolitical actions regarding Venezuela, are expected to influence the oil market dynamics leading into 2026 [7]

或受美国总统特朗普加大对伊朗军事威胁消息影响，国际油价连涨三天冲破了四个月高点。 从近期盘面表现来看，1月29日，国际油价收涨超3%，布伦特原油价格收于70.71美元/桶，突破70美元大关。 分析师认为，长期来看，今年的油价仍然存在下调压力。 "最近油价的涨势超出了大家的预期，业内此前并没预判到能涨这么多。"隆众资讯原油分析师李彦今天在接受第一财经记者采访时直 言。 截至1月30日第一财经记者发稿，国际油价有小幅下调，WTI美国原油价格下调1.941%至64.15美元/桶，布伦特原油价格下调1.897%至 68.25美元/桶。 中银国际分析，短期内国际油价面临关税政策与OPEC+增产的压力，但地缘风险溢价、OPEC+的干预能力以及全球需求韧性有望支撑油 价底部；另外，宏观层面的不确定性或将加大油价的波动水平。 李彦认为，主要因素是市场对美伊局势的担忧，由于地缘因素扰动了情绪，业内担心未来原油供应可能出现问题。而次要因素有两个， 一是前段时间的寒潮天气确实导致美国原油的产量下降，另一个是哈萨克斯坦前段时间由于停电故障，部分油田暂时停产，也对油市产 生了影响。 宏观层面，据摩根大通报告，占据哈萨克斯坦近一半产量的 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：由地缘政治风险和区域基本面推动，市场参与者表示，市场供应和贸易流或存在不确定性，包括俄罗 斯货量的影响，以及美国对委内瑞拉原油采取行动后重质含硫油供应情况的重组。油价波动极大，联动燃油高位 波动，投资者谨慎操作。FU2603：2900-2960区间运行，LU2603：3330-3400区间运行 1、基本面：贸易消息人士表示，尽管预计2月从西方运往新加坡的低硫燃料油套利船货量将维持高位，但高昂的 运费正在抑制从欧洲向亚洲运输的套利经济性；在欧洲市场，较窄的高低硫价差正鼓励贸易商将低硫燃料油产品 混入高 ...

格隆汇1月29日｜中曼石油公告，公司股票于2026年1月28日、1月29日连续2个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏 离值累计超过20%，股价波动幅度较大。敬请投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性投资。近期国际原油 市场受地缘局势反复、供需格局等多重因素影响，价格呈现宽幅震荡走势，短期油价波动存在较大不确 定性，敬请广大投资者注意风险。 ...

Group 1 - Airline stocks experienced significant declines, with China Southern Airlines down 7.67% to HKD 5.54, China Eastern Airlines down 7.12% to HKD 5.22, and Air China down 3.5% to HKD 6.89 [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan during the Spring Festival, leading to the cancellation of all 49 flights to Japan in February [1] - Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, and others announced an extension of their free ticket refund and change policy for flights to Japan until October 24 [1] Group 2 - Dongxing Securities reported that the demand for flights to Japan is affected, causing some capacity to overflow to other routes, which may lead to oversupply in the market [1] - Recent fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates were noted, with Huachuang Securities indicating that a 10% change in oil prices could impact the annual costs of the three major airlines by approximately CNY 4.3 to 5.1 billion, while a 1% change in exchange rates could affect them by CNY 130 to 260 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices decreased despite a significant winter storm impacting crude production and refinery operations on the U.S. Gulf Coast [1] Industry Impact - The winter storm has led to disruptions in crude production and refinery activities, indicating potential supply constraints in the oil market [1]