美国最新的消费者信心指数的进一步大幅下滑对美联储本月议息会议上重启降息进程起到一定的支撑。从目前公布的一 系列最新的经济数据看，美联储本月降息几乎是板上钉钉的事情。有机构甚至认为，美联储本月会一次降息50个基点。 笔者认为，美联储本月降息25个基点是更大概率的事情，未来一段时间内美联储仍然会在降息问题上秉持谨慎态度，大 幅而快速降息的概率不大，除非美国经济出现了非常明显的加速下行的趋势。 目前，特朗普总统的关税政策仍然存在很大的变数，由此带给美国经济的不确定性仍然存在，这给美国经济带来了相当 的负面压力。 9月12日公布的数据显示，美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数从前值58.2下降至55.4。美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指 数从上月处于的历史低位进一步大幅下滑，这表明美国经济的最重要的支柱消费正在进一步恶化。 与此同时，美国经济还面临着来自"黑天鹅事件"的可能的负面冲击。这使得美国经济的前景更加扑朔迷离。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。一切有关市场的准确信息， 请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月12日消息，美国9月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55.4，预期58。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for interest rate cuts has been reinforced, and any adjustments or pullbacks in gold prices may present buying opportunities for bullish investors [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On September 11, gold opened at $3641.64, reached a high of $3648.89, then fell to a low of $3613.45 before closing at $3633.75, with a daily fluctuation of $35.44 and a decline of $7.89, or 0.22% [3]. - The overall bullish trend for gold remains intact despite recent fluctuations, with strong support from various moving averages [3][5]. - The gold price is expected to test resistance levels at $3650, with potential upward movement towards new highs if these levels are breached [9]. Group 2: Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index is showing a downward trend, which may support gold prices in the short term [5]. - Upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. inflation rate and consumer confidence index, are anticipated to influence gold prices, with expectations of a decline in inflation and weakened consumer confidence being favorable for gold [5]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices have been on an upward trajectory since last year, with potential targets of $3700 and $3770 in the near future [7]. Group 3: Silver Price Movements - Silver prices are also showing potential for recovery, with support levels at $41.35 and $41.20, and resistance levels at $41.80 and $42.00 [9].

Market Insights - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the nomination of Milan to the Federal Reserve next Monday, with a procedural vote first, followed by a confirmation vote if approved [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.7% in July, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 6 were recorded at 263,000, indicating potential increases in layoffs amid a slowdown in hiring [1] European Central Bank and Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, with economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone adjusted to 1.2% for 2025, up from 0.9% [2] - The Bank of Japan is accelerating plans to reduce its substantial ETF holdings, which could involve a gradual market entry of assets worth 37 trillion yen [2] - The Turkish Central Bank significantly cut its one-week repo rate from 43% to 40.5%, exceeding investor expectations by 200 basis points [2] Energy Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil supply growth forecast for this year by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, while slightly increasing demand growth expectations to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day, respectively [3] Global Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 617.08 points to close at 46,108.00, a gain of 1.36%; the S&P 500 increased by 55.43 points to 6,587.47, up 0.85%; and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 157.01 points to 22,043.07, a rise of 0.72% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23% to $3,673.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for October delivery decreased by $1.30 to $62.37 per barrel, a drop of 2.04%; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $1.12 to $66.37 per barrel, down 1.66% [5] - The U.S. dollar index declined by 0.26% to 97.529, with various currency exchange rates showing fluctuations against the dollar [5]

Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Historical consumption recovery during bull markets typically lags behind stock market recovery by 2-3 quarters, but shows good sustainability[1] - In the three bull markets since 2000, the recovery of retail sales growth lasted over 20 months in the first two rounds and 7 months in the third round[11] - Consumer confidence index generally improves during bull markets, indicating a wealth effect on consumption[2] Group 2: Impact of Bull Markets on Consumption Categories - Each bull market has different consumption categories that see significant growth; essential goods and dining-related consumption surged in the first round, while communication devices and jewelry saw the largest increases in the second round[3] - Major durable goods like automobiles and entertainment products experienced notable growth in the third round[3] - Three categories consistently showed recovery across all bull markets: home appliances, daily necessities, and grain/oil products[25] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - If consumer stimulus policies are weaker than expected, the recovery in consumption during a bull market may also be weaker than anticipated[32] - Unexpected overseas geopolitical events could negatively impact domestic risk appetite and consumer confidence[32]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of inflation in the U.S. is impacting consumer confidence, leading to a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a focus on non-farm employment and inflation data [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation is rising, which is causing a decline in consumer confidence [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] - The U.S. stock market is entering a performance gap in September, which may increase market volatility [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9670, with a recent increase of 3.62% from an opening price of 9394, reaching a high of 9771 and a low of 9385, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The U.S. personal spending for July recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was at 2.9%, also meeting expectations [2] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of softening, with an average monthly job increase of 35,000 over the past three months, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded a final value of 58.2, below the expected 58.6, reflecting a decline of approximately 6% from July [3] - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in durable goods purchasing conditions to the lowest point in a year, with personal financial conditions declining by 7% [3] - The silver market is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support around 9500; a drop below this level may signal a potential peak [3]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase, opening at $3410.91 per ounce and closing at $3445.48 per ounce, with a peak of $3447.63 per ounce on August 29 [1]. Economic Data - In July, U.S. personal spending rose by 0.5%, matching market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, also in line with expectations [2]. - The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise, with 63% of consumers anticipating an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting growing concerns about the economic outlook [4]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August dropped to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [3][4]. - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in the conditions for purchasing durable goods, reaching a one-year low [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is at 12.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 87.4% [8]. - Federal Reserve officials are facing a tension between inflation targets and labor market conditions, with discussions around potential policy adjustments [4]. Trade and Tariff Developments - A U.S. appeals court ruled that many of President Trump's global tariff measures are illegal, stating that the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [6]. - The court's decision allows the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, pending an appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. Geopolitical Context - The European Commission has plans to send troops to Ukraine, with ongoing discussions with the U.S. regarding support for Ukraine's armed forces [7]. - Germany and France are advocating for secondary sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war funding capabilities [7]. Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 9.74 tons, bringing the total to 977.68 tons [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase in prices, with December 2025 gold futures rising by $41.8 to close at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase. Silver futures also experienced a rise, closing at $40.750 per ounce, up 2.64% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - December gold futures surged due to technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark and reaching a three-week high [1]. - The increase in gold prices was supported by economic data released on the same day, indicating a favorable market environment for precious metals [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August was reported at 58.2, a decline of approximately 6% from July, marking the first decrease in four months [1]. - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July remained unchanged year-on-year at 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver futures prices on August 29, driven by technical buying and a sell-off in the U.S. stock market [1] - The December 2025 gold futures price rose by $41.8, closing at $3,516.1 per ounce, marking a 1.20% increase [1] - The December silver futures price increased by 104.7 cents, closing at $40.750 per ounce, with a rise of 2.64% [1] Group 2 - Economic data released on the same day indicated a decline in U.S. consumer confidence, with the University of Michigan's index falling to 58.2 in August, a decrease of approximately 6% from July [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained unchanged at 2.6% year-on-year for July, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [1] - The core inflation rate rose to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1]