Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have released a draft for public consultation regarding the procurement standards for new energy vehicles, emphasizing non-discriminatory treatment of suppliers and strict adherence to contract specifications for vehicle parameters and configurations [2] - China's first green hydrogen coal chemical project has commenced full market operation, with an expected annual hydrogen production of 705,900 cubic meters, which will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 13,880 tons [2] - Over 510 green mines have been established at the provincial level or above in China, including 1,054 national-level green mines, accounting for 40.8% of licensed operating mines, achieving significant results in resource conservation and ecological restoration [2] - The steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries are set to complete their first carbon emission quota clearance by the end of this year, as per the newly released quota distribution plan for 2024 and 2025 [2] Regional Developments - The Yangtze River Delta has achieved 180.8 billion kilowatt-hours of inter-regional electricity exchange, surpassing its annual target ahead of schedule, with an 8.26% increase compared to the previous year [3] - The implementation plan for the national carbon peak pilot in the Qiannan High-tech Industrial Development Zone has been released, aiming for a low-carbon, efficient modern phosphate chemical industry by 2030 [3] Energy Projects - Shanxi Province has initiated a bidding process for new energy projects, with a total mechanism electricity scale of 55.06 billion kilowatt-hours, including 14.17 billion kilowatt-hours from wind power and 40.89 billion kilowatt-hours from solar power [4] International Developments - Japan is expected to approve the restart of its largest nuclear power plant, the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, with only one of its seven reactors set to resume operation [5] - Egypt has signed a nuclear fuel procurement agreement with Russia for the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, ensuring fuel supply for the first reactor [5] Corporate News - China Nuclear Engineering Corporation has reported new contracts totaling 123.84 billion yuan and cumulative operating revenue of 81.33 billion yuan as of October 2025 [7]

报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/20 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,050.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1573323 | -57810↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -105874 | -5566↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -49 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the "Scheme" provides effective support for carbon prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [3]. - In the short - term, the increase in the basic carry - over volume of the three major industries leads to an increase in potential purchase demand, but it is necessary to note that it may not all be converted into market buying demand [3]. - In the long - term, the total quota gap of quota - deficient enterprises in the three major industries increases, and the supply - demand may be tight, which will drive up carbon prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Policy Adjustment - On November 17, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Scheme", which has two adjustments compared with the previous draft: the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation is adjusted from 0.1 to 0.15, and the upper and lower limits of carbon emission intensity deviation are adjusted from ±30% to ±20%; the basic carry - over volume of key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries is adjusted from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. For key emission units included in two or more industries, the basic carry - over volume is adjusted to the sum of the basic carry - over volumes of key emission units in each industry (≥110,000 tons) [1]. Market Performance - On November 19, 2025, the carbon emission quota rose sharply in the early trading and hit the daily limit, with a slight pull - back at the close. The closing price was 66.86 yuan/ton, with a gain of over 8%. The trading volume for the whole day was 1.1464 million tons, a 17.6% increase from the previous day's trading volume [2]. Short - term Impact - The adjustment of the "Scheme" allows enterprises in the three major industries to buy more quotas before the end of the year to carry over to next year, increasing short - term potential purchase demand. After the adjustment, the potential purchase demand of newly added enterprises increased from 1.334 million tons to 13.34 million tons [3]. Long - term Impact - The increase in the coefficient of carbon emission intensity and carbon emission intensity deviation makes the quota surplus or deficit of enterprises larger. Considering that the quota carry - over policy only lasts until the end of 2025, in 2026, quota - surplus enterprises may be more inclined to "hoard" quotas, while quota - deficient enterprises will convert all quota gaps into market demand due to compliance requirements, so the supply - demand may be tight and drive up carbon prices [4]. Operation Suggestions - Quota - surplus enterprises should confirm whether the remaining quotas meet the maximum carry - over volume requirements, and sell the excess part on rallies; key emission units in the three newly included major industries in the national carbon market can pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips in the carbon market [4]. Noun Explanation - Carbon emission intensity coefficient: An indicator characterizing the advanced level of an enterprise's carbon emission intensity control; when an enterprise is better than the industry benchmark level, the value is >0; otherwise, the value is <0 [5]. - Carbon emission intensity deviation: In 2025, the carbon emission intensity coefficients of steel enterprises, cement clinker production lines, and aluminum electrolysis processes are based on the gap between the carbon emissions per ton of products in their main processes and the industry balance value [5].

伊 张默涵 从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025/11/19 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 能源转型与碳中和组 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短期需关注基础结转量的增加带来的潜在需求是否能转化为有效的市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with new home and second-hand home transaction areas still showing negative year-on-year growth, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024. New construction starts and development investments continue to decline, and funding is tight, indicating an ongoing deleveraging cycle. The overall loss level of the industry has further expanded compared to the second quarter, suggesting that the fundamentals remain weak. Future policy support and stabilization of the industry are expected to drive market trends [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is benefiting from a dual advantage of cost and policy due to the elimination of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities. The sector is expected to see stable support from urban village renovations and the acceleration of affordable housing construction. Current valuations are at historical lows, making certain stocks attractive for defensive and long-term investment [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of November 13, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.07% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 11.37% [13][17]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to one focused on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [4][28]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 2.63% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.3 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.38% [29][32]. - The cement industry is expected to see a significant increase in profitability due to the implementation of carbon trading regulations and the elimination of inefficient capacities. The sector is supported by ongoing construction projects and a favorable valuation environment [4][50]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and Binhai Group (002244) in the real estate sector, and Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801) in the building materials sector [4][53].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the national carbon emission trading market prices are normal and influenced by multiple factors such as supply-demand relationships, market expectations, trading behaviors, and market psychology [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Impact - The State Council approved the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into the carbon emission trading market, marking a significant step in promoting green and low-carbon transformation in these sectors [3]. - The carbon market's expansion is expected to enhance emission reduction responsibilities for enterprises, transitioning from intensity control to total volume control during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a focus on stable carbon emission industries by 2027 [3][5]. Group 2: Low-Carbon Investment and Innovation - The carbon market has driven low-carbon investments and accelerated the innovation and promotion of green low-carbon technologies, with enterprises integrating carbon asset management into their daily operations [4]. - The carbon trading has reportedly reduced the overall emission reduction costs in the power generation sector by approximately 35 billion RMB during the first two compliance cycles, indicating a positive impact on cost-effectiveness in the newly included industries [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to further expand the coverage of the carbon market, prioritize total volume control in stable carbon emission industries, and enhance the pricing function of the carbon market to reflect true emission reduction costs [5].

Core Points - The national carbon emissions trading market will gradually shift from intensity control to total control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a goal to cover major industrial emission sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon emissions trading market and implement total quota control and paid allocation [1][2] - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries in the carbon emissions trading market is expected to enhance corporate responsibility for emissions reduction [2][4] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - The central government has issued its first document on carbon market construction, demonstrating a strong commitment to addressing climate change [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will accelerate the establishment of the national carbon market and expand its coverage to major emission industries by 2027 [1][2] Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The development of a voluntary emission reduction trading market is being expedited, with a focus on creating a comprehensive methodological system to support social voluntary reductions [2][5] - As of October 28, the voluntary emission reduction trading market has registered 31 projects and achieved a total transaction volume of 3.25 million tons, with a transaction value of 270 million yuan [5] Industry Impact - Since the launch of the national carbon market, the power generation sector has established internal carbon management systems, leading to reduced emissions costs by approximately 35 billion yuan during the first two compliance periods [4] - The diversification of industry participants following the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum is expected to facilitate cross-industry resource allocation and lower overall emissions reduction costs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China is advancing the construction of a national carbon market, focusing on green and low-carbon transformation as outlined in the recent policy directives [1]. Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The national carbon emissions trading market will expand its coverage to include major emission industries in the industrial sector by 2027 [1]. - A total quota control and paid allocation system will be implemented, transitioning from intensity control to total control based on national greenhouse gas emission targets [1]. - The allocation of quotas will gradually shift towards a higher proportion of paid distribution, combining free and paid methods [1]. Group 2: Quota Management and Pricing - There will be a gradual tightening of quotas to enhance their scarcity, which will help carbon prices more accurately reflect the costs of emissions reduction in China [1]. - This approach aims to provide clearer price signals for optimizing key industries and facilitating green and low-carbon transformation [1]. Group 3: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The construction of a voluntary emission reduction trading market will be accelerated, with a focus on developing a comprehensive methodological system to support social voluntary reductions [1]. - The initiative aligns with the ecological value transformation of the "Two Mountains" concept [1]. Group 4: Market Vitality and Financial Products - Efforts will be made to enhance the vitality of the national carbon market by exploring and developing green financial products and services related to carbon emissions rights and certified voluntary reductions [1]. - The aim is to diversify the types and numbers of trading entities and strengthen market transaction supervision [1].