Core Insights - The online music industry is entering a new phase characterized by "emotional economy," with companies adapting their business models to enhance user engagement and monetization opportunities [12] Group 1: Company Performance - Tencent Music reported a total revenue of 84.4 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with adjusted net profit rising by 33.0% to 26.4 billion yuan [1] - In contrast, NetEase Cloud Music's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 38.27 billion yuan, a decline of 6%, but its profit surged by 132.4% to 18.82 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more profitable "emotional consumption" despite lower overall revenue [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The online music platforms are increasingly focusing on K-POP, live performances, and fan engagement as key growth drivers for 2025 [2] - Tencent Music has strengthened its content advantage by becoming the second-largest shareholder of SM Entertainment and forming strategic partnerships with K-POP labels [2][3] - NetEase Cloud Music is also expanding its K-POP content library through partnerships with major entertainment companies [3] Group 3: User Engagement and Monetization - Tencent Music has launched the Bubble fan interaction community, offering high-value services such as exclusive merchandise and priority concert ticket purchases, enhancing user engagement [3][4] - NetEase Cloud Music has introduced features like free early listening and ticket purchasing for premium members, tapping into fan demand for exclusive experiences [3][4] - Both companies are leveraging their platforms to create immersive experiences that deepen emotional connections with users, thus driving music consumption [4][6] Group 4: Market Trends - The rise of "emotional economy" is transforming the online music industry, with platforms moving beyond simple music streaming to include artist management, live events, and merchandise sales [6][12] - Tencent Music's successful management of G-DRAGON's concert in Macau has expanded its presence in the international entertainment market, showcasing the potential of fan-driven economic models [7][8] - The number of independent musicians on NetEase Cloud Music has surpassed 819,000, indicating a growing diversity in music content that attracts younger audiences [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing evolution of online music platforms reflects a deeper understanding of emotional connections and social interactions, which are crucial for future growth [12] - The balance between commercialization and user experience will be a significant challenge for the industry moving forward, as companies navigate the complexities of the emotional economy [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company has experienced a 6% year-on-year decline in total revenue for H1 2025, with a significant drop of 43% in social entertainment revenue. However, the adjusted operating profit has increased by 35% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [1][8] - The online music subscription business has shown robust growth, with a 15% increase in subscription revenue driven by the growth in paid user numbers. The online music revenue reached 2.97 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, with a leading paid penetration rate of 27% [2][15] - The company is focusing on young users and developing original content to create differentiation, which is expected to support long-term growth. The number of independent musicians on the platform has exceeded 820,000, with approximately 4.8 million music tracks uploaded [3][20] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved to 36.4%, up 1.4 percentage points due to optimized music copyright costs. The content service cost was 1.8 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year, accounting for 47% of revenue [1][8][9] - The total expense ratio for H1 2025 was 16.6%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to effective sales expense optimization [9] Commercialization - The online music subscription revenue reached 2.47 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by the growth in paid users. The company has enhanced its membership benefits to stimulate user willingness to pay for premium experiences [2][15] - Social entertainment services and other business revenues fell to 860 million yuan, a decline of 43% year-on-year, as the company is restructuring its live streaming ecosystem [19] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting adjusted profits of 3.05 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.05 billion yuan respectively, with an upward revision of 47% for 2025 [3][20] - The reasonable valuation range for the company's stock is set between 311.00 and 354.00 HKD, with a closing price of 280.00 HKD [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent Music is expanding in the pan-music field, with a successful increase in ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) [1][4] - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the subscription business, driven by the growth of ARPPU and an increase in paid user penetration [6][28] - Tencent Music's acquisition of the long audio leader, Ximalaya, is anticipated to enhance synergies between long audio and music, similar to the model of Spotify [6][29] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent Music achieved total revenue of 8.44 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.8% [11][20] - The online music revenue accounted for 81% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [11][20] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11][20] Subscription Business - In Q2 2025, subscription revenue reached 4.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [4][20] - The number of online music paying users was 124 million, with a payment rate of 22.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [4][26] - The monthly ARPPU was 11.7 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [4][26] Other Online Music Revenue - Other online music business revenue, including advertising and digital albums, grew by 46.9% year-on-year to 2.47 billion yuan [5][20] - The company has seen strong growth in artist-related activities and live performances, including managing large international tours [5][20] Strategic Developments - Tencent Music is actively expanding overseas, including a stake in South Korean SM Entertainment and launching the "Bubble" product for high-end fan services [8][29] - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to leverage its leading market position and expand its pan-music offerings [6][29] Valuation - The reasonable valuation range for Tencent Music is set at $27.10 to $28.90, reflecting an increase of 66-71% [1][29] - The report uses comparable companies for valuation, indicating a strong growth potential in the pan-entertainment sector [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding the opening of Pop Mart's flagship store in Thailand highlights the ongoing competition and design similarities with Miniso's MINISO LAND, raising questions about originality and potential copyright infringement in retail design [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock has surged approximately 170% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of around HKD 370 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 100, driven by a significant increase in overseas sales, which grew over four times in the first half of the year [3][4] - In contrast, Miniso's stock has seen a slight decline of 0.6%, with a market capitalization close to HKD 50 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 18, impacted by profit declines due to acquisitions and interest expenses [4][3] Group 2: Market Strategy - Pop Mart adopts a "premium expansion" strategy, focusing on creating brand awareness through online channels and flagship stores, while Miniso emphasizes rapid store replication through supply chain advantages and cost control [5][6] - The two companies have distinct approaches to intellectual property (IP), with Pop Mart acting as an "IP creator" and Miniso as an "IP connector," relying on collaborations with established brands to enhance product offerings [6][7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese toy industry, particularly in the collectible segment, is experiencing significant growth, with its market share in overseas markets increasing from 3% in 2020 to an expected 18% by 2025 [8] - The rise of the collectible toy market is contributing to the transformation of China's manufacturing sector, moving from "OEM advantages" to "cultural premiums," and is projected to reach a market size of CNY 110.1 billion by 2026 [9] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The competition between Pop Mart and Miniso reflects a broader consumer trend where young consumers seek both emotional value and cost efficiency in their purchases, indicating a dual demand for unique experiences and affordability [10]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music with a target price of HKD 118, driven by user growth, improved ARPPU, and strong performance in advertising and concert-related businesses [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music's revenue for Q2 2025 reached RMB 84.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with a gross margin of 44.4% [1] - Operating profit was RMB 29.8 billion, up 35.5% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 35.3% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was RMB 25.7 billion, reflecting a 37.4% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net margin of 30.5% [1] User Growth and Revenue Streams - The online music service revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 68.5 billion, a 26.4% increase year-on-year, with subscription revenue at RMB 43.8 billion, up 17.1% [2] - The number of paying users reached 124 million, a 6.3% increase year-on-year, with ARPPU at RMB 11.7, a 9.3% increase [2] - The paid penetration rate reached 22.5%, with SVIP users exceeding 15 million, accounting for 12.1% of paying users [2] Business Expansion and Content Strategy - Tencent Music is expanding its partnerships with domestic and international record companies and artists, including collaborations with The BlackLabel and H Music to enhance K-pop offerings [2] - The company is innovating content production in collaboration with SM Entertainment to promote NCT CHENLE's Chinese EP [2] - Tencent Music provided nearly 300 live performance opportunities for around 100 artists on its platform in the first half of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q2 2025, primarily driven by online music services, despite declines in social entertainment and other service revenues [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 8.44 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.8% [1]. - Q2 2025 gross margin was 44.4%, up 2.4 percentage points year-over-year and 0.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Q2 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders (IFRS) was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 43.2% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 43.9% [1]. - Adjusted net profit (Non-IFRS) for Q2 2025 was 2.57 billion yuan, up 37.4% year-over-year and 21.2% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 8.26 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 17.7% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.2% [1]. Group 2: Online Music Segment - Q2 2025 online music revenue was 6.85 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.1% [2]. - The company anticipates Q3 2025 online music revenue to be 6.75 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 23.2% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 1.5% [2]. - Q2 2025 monthly active users (MAU) for online music were 553 million, down 3.2% year-over-year and 0.4% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - Q2 2025 average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) was 11.7 yuan per month, up 9.3% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter [2]. Group 3: Social Entertainment Segment - Q2 2025 social entertainment revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, down 8.5% year-over-year but up 2.3% quarter-over-quarter [2]. - The company expects Q3 2025 social entertainment revenue to decline to 1.51 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 1.9% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.2% [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 11.6 billion, 11.1 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan respectively, with upward revisions based on increased music subscription rates [3]. - A target price of 112.8 HKD (102.6 CNY) is set for 2026, based on a P/E ratio of 29 times [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q2 2025 performance, exceeding expectations with significant revenue and profit growth, driven primarily by online music services and a diversified product offering [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.798 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and a net profit of 6.7 billion, up 115.85% [1] - Q2 2025 revenue reached 8.442 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.91%, while net profit was 2.409 billion, an increase of 43.22% [1] - Online music service revenue was 6.85 billion, growing 26.4% year-on-year, while social entertainment revenue declined by 8.5% to 1.59 billion [1] Revenue Drivers - The growth in online music services was attributed to a rapid increase in subscription revenue and steady growth in advertising services, artist merchandise, and live performances [1] - Subscription revenue for online music reached 4.38 billion, up 17.1%, driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user, which was 11.7, a 9.3% year-on-year increase [1] Margin Improvement - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 44.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, primarily due to the rapid growth in subscription and advertising revenue, optimizing the revenue structure [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its content ecosystem, provide customized support for domestic and international artists, and innovate product offerings to sustain long-term growth [2] - Short-term strategies include promoting internationalization of the Bubble community and enhancing the fan economy ecosystem [2] - Mid-term focus will be on deepening SVIP benefits and increasing investment in AI technology and expanding overseas markets [2] - Long-term goals involve building a comprehensive music entertainment ecosystem encompassing content, platform, social interaction, and performances to increase global market share [2] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a solid industry position with robust growth, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 3.48, 3.29, and 3.72, respectively, and current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 27X, 28X, and 25X [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to a more optimistic outlook on Tencent Music's non-subscription business, the earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 5%, 7%, and 6% respectively [1] - The valuation benchmark year has been updated to 2026, with the price-to-earnings ratio increased from 24 times to 28 times, resulting in a target price increase of 47%, from HKD 75.66 to HKD 111.2 [1] - The report highlights that Tencent Music has a unique business model and diversified revenue sources, leading to sustainable profit growth prospects and improved transparency, thus maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 2 - Tencent Music's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with the ARPPU-driven strategy proving effective, supported by a vibrant music content ecosystem and fan economy [1] - For Q3, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 17% year-on-year, reaching RMB 8.21 billion, with a net increase of 1.3 million music subscriptions, totaling 125.7 million [1] - The ARPPU is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year to RMB 11.90, and the adjusted net profit for Q3 is anticipated to increase by 32% year-on-year to RMB 2.39 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has raised its earnings forecasts for Tencent Music (01698) for 2025-2027 by 5%, 7%, and 6% respectively, due to a more optimistic outlook on the company's non-subscription business [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts and Valuation - The valuation benchmark year has been updated to 2026, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple increased from 24 times to 28 times, resulting in a target price increase of 47%, from HKD 75.66 to HKD 111.2 [1] - The company is recognized for its unique business model and diversified revenue sources, leading to sustainable and transparent profit growth prospects [1] Group 2: Recent Performance and Future Expectations - Tencent Music's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with the strategy driven by ARPPU proving effective, supported by a vibrant music content ecosystem and fan economy [1] - For Q3, revenue is expected to grow by 17% year-on-year to RMB 8.21 billion, with a net increase of 1.3 million music subscriptions, totaling 125.7 million, and ARPPU projected to rise by 10% to RMB 11.90 [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 is anticipated to increase by 32% year-on-year to RMB 2.39 billion [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [5] Core Views - The growth of online music paid users and ARPPU is expected to drive an increase in online music revenue, leading to improved profit margins. The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 11.6 billion, 11.1 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates due to higher music membership payment rates and adjustments in social entertainment revenue [2] - The target price is set at 112.8 HKD (102.6 RMB) based on a P/E ratio of 29 times for 2026 [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the total revenue is projected at 27.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%. Revenue is expected to grow to 32.62 billion yuan in 2025E, reflecting a 14.8% increase [3][11] - The operating profit for 2023A is 4.78 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 48.5%. It is expected to reach 9.83 billion yuan by 2025E, a 33.7% increase [3][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 4.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33.8%. The forecast for 2025E is 11.55 billion yuan, representing a 73.9% increase [3][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 35.3% in 2023A to 44.4% in 2025E, while the net margin is projected to rise from 17.7% to 35.4% over the same period [3][11] - The report anticipates a rise in online music revenue to 68.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [8] - The average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is expected to increase to 11.9 yuan per month in Q3 2025, up from 11.7 yuan in Q2 2025 [8]