Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

日本央行：物价趋势可能符合下半年的展望目标。 经济和物价面临的不确定性极高。 ...

【导读】黄金成为全球央行第二大储备资产，金价徘徊，富国银行表示等待入场时点 受创纪录的购买量和金价飙升推动，黄金已超越欧元，成为全球央行第二大储备资产。 近日，黄金价格小幅震荡，似乎在等待方向。美国富国银行预测，多重不确定性将推动金价走高，耐心 等待入场时点。 欧洲央行：2024年黄金占全球官方储备的比例达到20%，仅次于美元 周三，欧洲央行发布的一份报告显示，全球央行的黄金储备攀升至3.6万吨，与1965年(布雷顿森林体系) 时的持仓水平相当(3.8万吨)。 报告显示，2024年黄金占全球官方储备的比例为20%，超过欧元的16%，仅次于美元的46%。 近日，美国富国银行发布2025年年中展望，报告指出贵金属将继续受益于地缘政治冲突和经济不确定 性。 富国银行分析师指出，投资者对贵金属上涨的乐观情绪已经达到历史上出现大幅回调前的水平，因此他 们更倾向于耐心等待价格下跌再买入。富国银行预计，到今年年底，金价将回落至3000至3200美元区 间，到2026年底将升至每盎司3600美元。 前一日，黄金价格冲高回落。盘中，因地缘冲突、世界银行下调全球经济增速预期，黄金价格一度冲 高。贸易谈判进行，周二美股持续上涨，影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales and indicated a slower start to the summer season amid economic uncertainty [1][2]. Financial Performance - Inditex reported revenues of 8.27 billion euros ($9.44 billion) for the fiscal first quarter from February 1 to April 30, falling short of the 8.39 billion euros forecast by analysts [2]. - The net income for the quarter was 1.3 billion euros, slightly below the 1.32 billion euros estimated by analysts [2]. Sales Trends - The company experienced a slower start to summer sales, with a 6% increase at constant currencies from May 1 to June 9, compared to a 12% growth in the same period last year [2]. - In March, Inditex had already indicated a slowdown in demand at the beginning of the year, which was attributed to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to benefit from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with predictions of reaching historical highs by 2026 [3] - Analysts suggest that the significant adjustments in commodity prices create attractive opportunities for economic improvement later this year and in 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors [3] - There is a recommendation for investors to shift towards sectors that may benefit from macroeconomic improvements, such as energy and precious metals [3] Group 2 - Current technical analysis indicates that spot gold has shown slight increases but is forming a bearish flag pattern, suggesting continued selling pressure [4] - The price is being suppressed by the EMA50, and the RSI indicator shows a divergence, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued downward trend [5]

美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说，美国总统唐 纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今年夏天结束，美国政策 制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政策的不确定性能在"7月消散"，美 联储才可能筹备9月降息。（央视新闻） ...

当前新增岗位大多来自医疗保健、休闲与酒店业，以及社会援助行业。虽然这些行业一向是拉动就业的 中坚力量，Flowers警告称，特朗普政府正在推动的支出法案中的关税和医保相关政策，可能会限制这 些行业的增长空间。 该支出法案已在众议院通过，目前正由参议院审议。内容包括削减7000亿美元的联邦医疗补助支出，并 提高通过"平价医疗法案"(ACA)市场报名医保的门槛与成本。 尽管最新公布的经济数据显示，美国就业市场依旧保持稳定，Appcast首席经济学家Andrew Flowers警告 称，就业基础正出现"裂痕"，未来几个月可能对劳动力市场构成重大挑战。 根据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，美国5月新增就业13.9万个，略高于市场预期，略低于4月的14.7万 个。失业率维持在4.2%，而代表就业不足情况的"兼职但想要全职"比例也维持在7.8%不变。 然而，Flowers指出，整体来看，美国就业市场其实只是"勉强维持现状"。他指出，过去一年美国月均 新增就业仅为14.4万个，这是自2011年以来的最低水平。 三大行业支撑就业但面临政策打击 但对正在找工作的人来说，情况则不容乐观，特别是刚从高中或大学毕业的求职者。"找到工作的难 ...

Core Insights - The reports reveal how U.S. businesses are responding to the unpredictable tariff policies of President Donald Trump, primarily by raising prices and slowing down hiring [2][3] Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the regions reported a "slight to moderate" decline in economic activity, with three regions reporting no growth [2] - All regions reported increased levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitance in decision-making among businesses and households [3] Business Responses - Many businesses are stockpiling goods expected to be affected by tariffs, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management [2][4] - A significant number of manufacturers (50%) reported price increases on goods subject to tariffs, with 31% of businesses stockpiling inventory and 43% reporting a decline in net profits [5] Hiring and Investment - Due to tariff-related uncertainties, many employers are delaying hiring, with reports of slight decreases in employee numbers in the manufacturing sector [4][6] - Nearly a quarter of service sector businesses are cutting capital investments in the U.S. [6] Small Business Impact - Small business owners express that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating significant challenges, with some reporting their slowest sales months [7][8] - The unpredictable nature of tariff implementation complicates business operations, making it difficult for companies to make clear procurement decisions or long-term plans [10][12]

19 CSI C 46 ura inter 图页 r BB I 生假 n a great I (90) · FORSEMANA care . INE u one L | and 1 (GB) ro m @11 00 1 11 0 1 国 eman appens a com 关于关税问题，《褐皮书》中频繁提及"关税"和"不确定性"相关词汇，突显了当前美国经济面临的挑战。许多企业预计未来成本和价格将上升，并表示关税 增加对成本和价格带来上行压力。企业对于物价上升的预期存在差异，部分计划将关税成本转嫁给消费者，同时采取措施应对潜在风险。 而美国近期针对 大量进口商品实施的高额关税措施，加剧了市场的不确定性。美国最近还宣布对钢铁和铝产品的关税提高，这种政策的变化使得经济前景更加不确定。 根据美联储发布的最新经济形势报告《褐皮书》显示，近期美国经济活动的略微下降，暗示着贸易关税和高度不确定性对经济产生了广泛影响。这份报告是 美联储每年发布的重要参考资料之一，由圣路易斯联邦储备银行编撰，汇总了十二家地区联储对全美经济情况的调查结果。 根据报告内容，自上一份《褐皮书》发布以来，美国经济活动略有下降。所有辖区反映出经济和政策 ...

技术面： 基本面： 周五（6月6日）亚盘时段，现货黄金触底反弹收复隔夜部分跌幅，目前继续上探暂交投于3373美元附近。金价周四冲高回落，早些时候盘中白银突破35美元 关口，创13年新高，带动金价一度升破3400关口，创近四周新高至3403.28美元/盎司附近，但随后因中美领导人通话释放的贸易紧张局势缓和信号，现货黄 金价格收盘下跌0.6%，报每盎司3352.65美元。 6月5日，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平的通话成为全球金融市场的焦点。特朗普在社交媒体上表示，双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，而 中国官方则强调应撤销对华消极举措。这场罕见的领导人对话被市场解读为贸易紧张局势解冻的信号，削弱了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，导致现货黄金价 格在盘中高点3403.28美元后回落至3352.65美元。尽管如此，黄金今年以来已上涨约28%，显示出其在全球不确定性背景下的强劲需求。贸易紧张局势的缓 解直接影响了避险资产的表现。黄金价格的下跌反映了市场对中美贸易谈判进展的乐观预期。 此外，特朗普近期多次公开呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔降低借贷成本，称高利率阻碍了经济增长。然而，美联储内部对降息的态度分歧明显。美联储理事库格 ...