目前，美国危机的三大死结有：1. 债务雪球越滚越快，今年美国政府每借100美元，就有62美元用于支付旧债利息。2. 政 策工具箱已见底美联储去年加息525个基点，通胀却依然卡在3.5%高位。更尴尬的是，对华加征的关税反而让沃尔玛的自 行车涨价40%，特斯拉上海工厂产能却扩张了3倍。3. 美元信用出现裂痕巴西总统卢拉公开质问："凭什么要用美元买中国 商品？"如今金砖国家47%的贸易改用本币结算，沙特甚至开始接受人民币购买石油。 据新华财经报道，日前，美国财政部公布了2025年2月份的TIC报告。据该报告披露，2月份外国（地区）持有美债规模为 88,172亿美元，环比增加2,217亿美元，同比增加8,179亿美元。最新数据显示，美国联邦债务总额已经膨胀到36.2万亿美 元，其中约9.2万亿美元在2025年陆续到期，占该国债务总额的25.4%，引发了人们对其对其金融市场、利率和经济稳定 的担忧。此外，创纪录的美国政府赤字支出水平也推动了债务的迅速积累。 这段时间以来美国政府的经济政策一日三变，近日最大的新闻自然是美国"股债汇三杀"导致特朗普一点一点地食言，不 断放软原本极为强硬的态度。所谓"股债汇三杀"，就是美国股 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on May 6 was quoted at 795.4 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 0.6 CNY over the futures main price of 794.80 CNY per gram [1] - The closing price for the Shanghai gold futures on May 6 was 794.80 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 1.39% and a trading volume of 197,944 contracts [1] - MFS Investment Management's chief economist indicated that the U.S. Treasury market is returning to normal after a brief period of turmoil, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting being closely watched for potential dovish signals [1] Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, precious metals experienced wide fluctuations, with mixed economic data from the U.S. providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain patience [2] - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May [2] - The global economic and political uncertainties, along with a potential credit crisis for the U.S. dollar, are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses China's strategy to counteract the potential financial crisis stemming from the U.S. debt situation, which has reached nearly $29 trillion as of September 22 [1] - Since 2018, China has sold off $183.9 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, making it the largest seller during this period, while also facing the challenge of maintaining a significant holding of over $1 trillion in U.S. debt [1][11] - The article highlights a broader trend where 28 countries, including Russia, have collectively sold over $2 trillion in U.S. debt since 2017, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar [1] Group 2 - The U.S. claims to hold 8,100 tons of gold, but there are growing doubts about the authenticity of this figure, reflecting a lack of trust in the U.S. financial system [3][6] - The article notes that the U.S. has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. bonds, with Russia holding only $3 billion in debt and over 90% of its U.S. bond holdings cleared [5][11] - The decline in confidence in the U.S. dollar is evident, with its market share dropping from 73% in 2020 to a 25-year low of 59% [8] Group 3 - China is actively increasing its gold reserves as a hedge against the risks associated with U.S. debt, with gold being viewed as a more stable asset in the global market [12][15] - In July, China imported 55 tons of gold, and by September 2021, it had acquired at least 470 tons from international markets, while over 1,250 tons of gold have been withdrawn from the U.S. by various countries [12] - The article emphasizes that if a U.S. debt crisis occurs, the global financial market's confidence in the dollar could collapse, leading to a shift towards gold as the primary medium of exchange [14] Group 4 - The article argues that the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) is crucial for China to avoid being financially exploited by the U.S., as the dollar's dominance allows the U.S. to "harvest" global wealth [16][19] - Financial sovereignty is highlighted as a critical issue, with the article stating that without it, China risks being manipulated by foreign capital, which could have severe consequences for its economy [18] - The need for the RMB to be accepted as a global settlement currency is underscored, as this would mitigate the risks associated with U.S. monetary policy and its impact on global wealth distribution [19]

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The dollar credit crisis and the uncertainty of the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of the center of gold prices. This week, with the release of important economic data such as non - farm payrolls in the US, precious metals may maintain sharp fluctuations, and position control and light - participation are needed before the holiday. Tonight, attention should be paid to US ADP employment, PCE, and first - quarter GDP data [1] Other Key Points Tariff - related - Trump relaxed the auto tariff policy to relieve the impact on local automakers. The US Commerce Secretary reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The US said Europe did not participate well in tariff issues. Walmart notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments. The White House criticized Amazon for showing tariff prices, calling it a "hostile political act" [2] Ukraine - related - The US Secretary of State requires Ukraine to provide specific proposals and will withdraw from mediation if there is no progress. Putin is reported to have requested control of 4 regions in Ukraine during talks with the US [2] US Economic Data - The number of job openings in the US in March dropped to the lowest level since September last year. The US Conference Board consumer confidence in April plunged to a nearly five - year low. The US merchandise trade deficit in March widened to a record $162 billion [2]

金价像脱缰的野马，2024年初还在2050美元晃悠，到了2025年直接飙到3500美元，涨了七成多。 而美元却像漏气的皮球，购买力直线崩盘，有人甚至喊它要贬值90%。 人民币可不甘示弱，带着黄金筹码在国际舞台上大杀四方，结算量猛涨，中东土豪都开始用人民币买金。 美元的霸主地位晃得厉害，人民币国际化势头猛得像要追平它。 这场货币大战，到底谁能笑到最后？ 文案：凤梨 编辑：凤梨 国际金市最近可以说是十分热闹，买盘一波接一波，伦敦金交所一天能涌入30亿美金的订单。 亚洲的央行们买的最积极，中国、印度、土耳其，一个比一个出手狠，2025年一季度，全球央行买的黄金占了全年需求的四分之一。 这可不是投机炒作，黄金这东西不生利息，也不像股票能分红，但它有个真本事——能扛住货币贬值的风险。 回想1971年，美元跟黄金彻底分手，布雷顿森林体系崩了。 那会金价才35美元，如今3500美元，美元的购买力硬生生缩水了99%，这数字听着吓人，但市场反应更直接。 数据显示：2025年，美元指数跌到98，三年最低，美国国债日子也不好过，全球抛售潮来了，10年期美债的实际利率滑到-1.3%。 华尔街嘴上不认输，可连中国的保险资金都开始买黄金 ...

Report Summary 1) Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical turmoil, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, the US dollar credit crisis, and the global political and economic situation support the medium - to long - term upward trend of gold prices. With important US economic data such as non - farm payrolls to be released this week, precious metals may experience sharp fluctuations. It is necessary to control positions and participate cautiously before the holiday. Also, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings in March today [1]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Content Tariff - related News - Trump believes there is no red line to change his tariff policy according to an interview in The Atlantic. - The US Treasury Secretary said the first trade agreement might be reached as early as this week or next week, and India could be among the first batch. - German Chancellor - elect Merz will urge Trump to cancel all tariffs [2]. Russia - Ukraine - related News - Putin announced a 72 - hour cease - fire from 0:00 on May 8th to 0:00 on May 11th during the Victory Day celebration of the Great Patriotic War. - US media reported that the US and Ukraine will sign a mineral agreement as soon as this week. - Zelensky said the mineral agreement with the US has become "more stable and fair" after negotiations [2].

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing airstrikes by the US military against Houthi forces are escalating the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, with significant implications for global asset pricing [1] - The Houthis, supported by Iran, are disrupting maritime shipping in the Red Sea, which is in direct conflict with the US's efforts to maintain "freedom of navigation" [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Impact - The Red Sea crisis is leading to a restructuring of global shipping routes, with 75% of Eurasian container ships rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 40% increase in costs for the China-Europe route [3] - The daily oil transport volume through the Suez Canal, which is 1.2 million barrels, faces interruption risks, contributing to an 8% weekly increase in international oil prices [3] - The blockade of the Ras Isa port by Houthi forces has caused a 90% disruption in Yemen's fuel imports, creating a local supply crisis that contrasts with global oil surplus expectations [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market is exhibiting typical risk-hedging characteristics, maintaining high volatility after surpassing $3,000 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4] - The US dollar index rebounded strongly after signals from the Federal Reserve regarding prolonged high interest rates, casting a shadow over gold's upward momentum [4] - The scale of US national debt, at $36.6 trillion, and the ongoing unconventional monetary policy are undermining the credibility of the dollar [4] Group 4: Systemic Risks - Three systemic risks threaten market stability: prolonged Red Sea conflict leading to rising oil transport costs, potential liquidity crisis in the US Treasury market prompting policy shifts, and the risk of direct conflict between Saudi forces and Houthis affecting oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5] Group 5: Strategic Insights for Investors - The military actions by the US Navy, while appearing assertive, reveal deeper strategic dilemmas in the Middle East [6] - Investors may need to adjust to a new normal where "geopolitical premiums" on gold and oil become standard, while the dollar's safe-haven status is challenged by policy inconsistencies and debt issues [6] - Future market directions will depend on the recovery of Red Sea shipping routes, signals from the Federal Reserve's May meeting, and Iran's support for Houthi forces [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish approach towards the iron ore market [2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term supply - demand relationship of iron ore has improved, supporting the price, but the continued upside for the black series is limited. The mid - term supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose. The price will mainly move in a range, and it is recommended to short at high prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level, with molten iron production maintaining around 2.4 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks. However, the profits of blast furnace steel mills have been significantly compressed, and the impact of tariffs on exports will gradually emerge. Although short - term demand remains high due to pre - holiday stockpiling expectations, the rise and duration of molten iron production are expected to be limited [3][4] Inventory - Steel mill inventories continue to decline, and they are expected to maintain low inventory levels and purchase on - demand. Port inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks due to strong domestic steel mill demand and a phased decline in arrivals. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price pressure range for the 2509 contract is 720 - 730 yuan/ton [4]

每经编辑 肖芮冬 4月23日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。截至收盘，沪指跌0.1%，深成指涨0.67%，创业板指涨1.07%。全市场成交额12625亿元，较上一交易日放量1413亿元。黄 金股今日深度调整，午后跌幅进一步扩大。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘下跌7.09%、黄金基金ETF（518800）收跌5.93% 【下跌原因分析】避险情绪缓和，美元指数与美股反弹，金价回调。 今年以来，受美国关税政策的不确定性、经济衰退预期升温等因素影响，美元信用受损、市场避险情绪高涨，投资者大幅抛售美元资产，形成美股、美债、 美元同步下跌的"股债汇三杀"局面。黄金价格趋势较强、上涨逻辑较为清晰扎实，金价持续攀升、屡创新高。 今日受特朗普关税政策有望缓和的消息影响，市场避险情绪回落，美股、美元反弹，美股三大指数集体收涨；黄金价格回调，COMEX黄金自高点回撤 5.91%，SHFE黄金自高点回撤6.37%。 消息面上看，一方面，美国关税政策预期转好。另一方面，美元信用危机短暂缓和。特朗普表示不会解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，呵护意味明显，减弱了市场对 于美联储独立性以及美元信用的担忧。 黄金的回调，一方面是市场消息使得此前的恐慌情绪有 ...

经济刺激：通过施压降息对冲关税政策的负面影响。美国3月核心PCE物价指数同比升至2.9%，但一季度GDP增速放缓至1.8%，滞胀风险加 剧。特朗普试图将经济困境归咎于鲍威尔的"政策滞后"。政治博弈：为2026年连任铺路。若美联储在大选前降息，可能提振市场信心，但若鲍 威尔拒绝妥协，特朗普需通过"换人"重塑政策路径。 鲍威尔多次强调美联储的独立性。4月16日，他在公开讲话中明确表示："美联储的决策基于经济数据，而非政治压力。"根据美国法律，总统 无权随意解雇美联储主席，除非能证明其"渎职或不当行为"。历史判例显示，政策分歧无法构成解职理由。鲍威尔已表态，若遭遇法律挑战， 将通过司法程序抗争到底。 但特朗普正试图突破这一传统。他在4月21日白宫会议上宣称："如果我想让他离职，他很快就得走。"其团队甚至计划推动最高法院重新解释 《联邦储备法》，削弱央行独立性。 2025年4月22日，国际金融市场因特朗普政府与美联储的激烈博弈陷入剧烈震荡。美国总统特朗普在社交媒体连续炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔，称 其为"最大输家"和"Mr.Too Late"，并威胁"立即让他走人"。这一言论直接引发美股"黑色星期一"——道指暴跌2.48% ...