Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that gold prices have recently fallen below $4000 per ounce, marking a significant decline after reaching a historical peak of $4390 per ounce on October 17. This decline is attributed to technical corrections and profit-taking by investors [1][2]. - The recent drop in gold prices has been ongoing for nearly a week, with a notable decline starting on October 21. The market has experienced high volatility since then [1]. - Analysts suggest that the extreme market conditions are due to an overcrowded long position in gold, which has led to profit-taking as investors seek to realize gains [1]. Group 2 - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by ongoing monetary easing and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - Global central banks have continued to purchase gold at a significant rate, averaging over 1000 tons per year since 2022, which provides a stable demand foundation for gold [2]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to various global uncertainties, reinforcing its value in investment portfolios [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gold and gold jewelry sector, indicating potential for growth driven by macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [6]. Core Insights - Recent significant increases in gold prices have led to heightened market interest, with expectations for continued upward movement in the medium to long term due to central bank purchases, shifts in ETF holdings, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][15]. - The gold sector has shown resilience, with gold stocks expected to align more closely with gold prices as market conditions stabilize [3]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing structural changes, with demand from middle and high-income consumers becoming more rational, and brands focusing on craftsmanship and cultural integration to drive sales [4]. Summary by Sections Macro Analysis - Gold prices are expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, but three key factors are likely to push prices higher in the medium to long term: ongoing central bank purchases, a shift in global ETF holdings from net sellers to net buyers, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][15]. - Since 2019, central banks have accumulated 4,340.3 tons of gold, increasing its share in foreign exchange reserves to 22.37% [15][16]. Strategy - The rise in gold prices since 2022 has been driven by three main factors: a shift in Federal Reserve policy, concerns over dollar credit, and increased geopolitical risks [2][31]. - The short-term turning point for gold prices is linked to the easing of geopolitical tensions, while the medium-term turning point is tied to changes in U.S. monetary policy or government debt expansion [31] [28]. Asset Allocation - Current gold valuations remain acceptable, with room for increased allocation by domestic institutions. Suggested allocation ranges for gold in multi-asset strategies are 5%-10%, 10%-20%, and 20%-25% [2][3]. - The report highlights that gold's role in improving the risk-return profile of investment portfolios is significant, especially in uncertain economic conditions [36][54]. Precious Metals - Gold stocks have not fully followed the recent rise in gold prices due to market caution, but valuations remain historically low, with a rolling P/E ratio around 30 times [3][4]. - Recommended stocks include Lingbao Gold, Tongguan Gold, and Zijin Mining, among others [3]. Textile and Light Industry - The gold jewelry market is expected to see a decline in consumption volume starting in 2024 due to rising gold prices and changing consumer behavior [4][41]. - Brands like Chow Tai Fook are focusing on high-end positioning and product upgrades, resulting in a 4.1% year-on-year increase in retail value in Q3 [4][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, positive news such as Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026 and the European joint statement on Ukraine have boosted market risk appetite, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The transfer of inventory from New York to London has relieved the physical tightness of London silver. It is expected that precious metal prices may shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and major - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term credit risk of the US dollar. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Precious Metals - **Price and Price Changes**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, London gold spot rose 2.5% to $4340.36 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.4% to $51.72 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 2.5% to $4355.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.6% to $50.70 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also showed varying degrees of increase. [5] - **Spread and Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 48.5%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 31.8%. The spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 21.4%, and the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 1.2%. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios both increased by 1.9%. [5] 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: From October 17 to October 20, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 1.09% to 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position rose 1.76% to 15769.7749 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of change. [5] - **Inventory Data**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.32% to 86565.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased 12.44% to 749362.00 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.19%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.59%. [5] 3.3 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.09, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.62, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.46%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50% to 4.00%. [5] - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: The VIX index decreased by 12.27%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.07% to 6735.13, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.56% to $56.93. [5] 3.4 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On October 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.02% to 994.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.2% to 11805 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Short - term Outlook**: Precious metal prices may still need some adjustment in the short - term, but due to factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest - rate cut in October, prices are unlikely to continue to decline significantly. Domestic silver prices may be relatively resistant to decline, and prices are expected to shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long - term, the center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including improved risk appetite in global markets and potential easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On October 22, London spot gold prices fell to nearly $4000 per ounce, with a daily decline of 5.31%, while silver dropped by 6.99% [1]. - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some buying during the dip while others are waiting for potentially lower prices [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Adjustments - Analysts indicate that the current price adjustments in gold and silver are due to a combination of improved risk appetite in markets, particularly in Asia, and signs of de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The rapid increase in precious metal prices prior to the decline indicated an overheated market, leading to profit-taking and adjustments [2]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, being smaller and less liquid than gold, experiences more pronounced price fluctuations, which can lead to larger gains and losses [3]. - Recent easing of logistics and inventory issues has contributed to a recovery in silver market liquidity [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - Regulatory bodies have responded to the volatility by increasing margin requirements for gold contracts to mitigate systemic risks and protect investors [4]. - Several funds have implemented purchase limits to manage exposure to the volatile precious metals market [5]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the fundamental drivers of gold prices, such as rising debt and declining dollar credibility [6]. - Investment strategies should focus on long-term positioning while being cautious of short-term market fluctuations [7].

Core Insights - International gold prices have surged, with domestic gold prices in RMB reaching new highs, indicating strong market demand and investor interest [1][3] - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates [3][4] Price Trends - As of October 17, the price of investment gold bars in China surpassed 1000 RMB per gram, with a 100-gram gold bar costing approximately 100,000 RMB, compared to around 63,000 RMB at the beginning of the year [1] - Gold jewelry prices have also risen, with brands like Chow Tai Fook pricing 24K gold jewelry at 1279 RMB per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 32 RMB and a weekly increase of 111 RMB [1] - Domestic gold spot and futures prices both exceeded 1000 RMB per gram, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 spot price closing at 997.17 RMB per gram and the main futures contract at 999.8 RMB per gram [1] International Market Dynamics - International gold prices have recently crossed significant thresholds, with prices reaching nearly 4380 USD per ounce in London and 4392 USD per ounce in New York, marking a weekly increase of over 8.4%, the largest in recent years [1][2] - Year-to-date, international spot gold prices have increased by over 66%, while gold prices in RMB have risen by more than 62%, with 2023 projected to be the year with the highest price increase since 1979 [1][2] Driving Factors - Short-term factors driving gold prices include concerns over the stability of the credit system following loan fraud disclosures by U.S. regional banks and ongoing government shutdowns [3] - The demand for gold as a defensive asset has increased amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with central banks globally reducing dollar assets and increasing gold holdings [3] - In September, global gold ETFs experienced record inflows of 17.3 billion USD, and the average daily trading volume in the gold market reached 388 billion USD, a 34% month-over-month increase [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 15, the Fed Chair Powell's speech suggesting a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction and not refuting the market's October rate - cut expectation led to a weaker US dollar index, boosting precious metal prices. Gold hit new highs, and silver was supported by high leasing rates. In the short - term, factors like Sino - US trade uncertainty, the ongoing US government shutdown, and a high probability of a Fed rate cut in October will support gold prices. Silver may face adjustment risks if the physical shortage eases. In the long - term, factors such as Fed rate - cut space, global geopolitical uncertainty, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, London gold spot rose 2.2% to $4197.46/ounce, London silver spot rose 1.1% to $52.44/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.2% to $4214.90/ounce, CONEX silver rose 3.0% to $51.43/ounce, AU2512 rose 2.3% to 960.34 yuan/gram, AG2512 had 0.0% change at 11533 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 2.4% to 957.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 3.8% to 11930 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From October 14 to 15, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread changed by - 23.4% to - 3.04 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 1068.3% to 397 yuan/kilogram, the gold TD - London spread changed by - 75.8% to - 0.79 yuan/gram, the silver TD - London spread changed by - 15.6% to - 1412 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose 2.3% to 83.27, the COMEX + London ratio fell 0.7% to 81.95, the AU2602 - 2512 spread changed by - 757.4% to - 18.54 yuan/gram, and the AG2602 - 2512 spread had 0.0% change at 24 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Position Data - From October 13 to 14, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.25% to 1021.45 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.13% to 15733.09127 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the non - commercial short position rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, the non - commercial net long position rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the non - commercial short position fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On October 15, 2025, compared to October 14, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.04% to 75099 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 3.07% to 1030429 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory fell 0.16% to 39660680 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.88% to 515632550 troy ounces [3]. 3.4 Other Market Data - From October 14 to 15, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 99.05, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.22% to 3.48%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.14% to 4.03%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate rose 9.35%, the VIX fell 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 1.63% [4].

Core Insights - The surge in gold prices, surpassing $4000 per ounce, reflects significant changes in the global economic and political landscape, driven by short-term risk aversion, medium-term monetary policy expectations, and structural shifts in the global monetary system [1][4] Short-term Factors - Immediate catalysts for the gold price increase include geopolitical uncertainties, the recent U.S. government "shutdown" crisis, and global trade tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [1] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, directly contributing to the price surge [1] Medium-term Drivers - Continuous gold purchases by global central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to be a primary driver for sustained high gold prices [2] - Data from the IMF indicates a 14.16 percentage point decline in the share of foreign exchange reserves in total global reserves over the past decade, while the proportion of gold reserves has increased by 8.4 percentage points, providing structural support for gold prices [2] Central Bank Actions - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China and those in emerging markets like Saudi Arabia and Poland, have been increasing their gold holdings, with 43% of central banks planning to continue this trend in the next 12 months [3] - The influx of private sector funds into gold, particularly through Western market gold ETFs, is accelerating as investors seek to hedge against dollar credit risks [3] Long-term Trends - The fundamental support for the current surge in gold prices stems from deep-seated concerns regarding the credibility of the U.S. dollar and ongoing structural changes in the global monetary system [4] - The historical breakthrough in gold prices signifies a decline in trust in the dollar-centric monetary system, exacerbated by the U.S. government's debt crisis and a significant drop in the dollar index [4] - The transition from a dollar-dominated system to a multi-currency framework is becoming evident, with gold serving as a key strategic asset in this evolving landscape [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.84% to 11,531 yuan/kilogram [4] - The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the rise of risk aversion sentiment boosted the prices of precious metals to strengthen again. In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October will keep the gold price strong. Silver will also maintain a strong trend in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment when the high premium of London silver eases [4] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The central bank's gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, London gold spot rose 2.6%, London silver spot rose 3.4%, COMEX gold rose 2.7%, COMEX silver rose 4.3%, AU2512 rose 2.9%, AG2512 rose 4.1%, AU (T + D) rose 2.9%, and AG (T + D) rose 3.7% [3] Spread/Ratio Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 62.9%, the spread of gold (TD - London) decreased by 44.5%, the spread of silver (TD - London) increased by 1.0%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.5%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 decreased by 5.4%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 25.0% [3] Position Data - From October 9 to October 10, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX gold increased by 9.43%, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold increased by 0.13%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver increased by 0.97%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX silver decreased by 0.21%, and the non - commercial net long position of COMEX silver increased by 1.43% [3] Inventory Data - From October 10 to October 13, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.82%. From October 9 to October 10, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% [3] Other Market Data - From October 10 to October 13, the US dollar index decreased by 2.22%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 31.83%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.59%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.17%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 2.71%, and VIX decreased by 5.33% [4]

今日周三（9月24日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于850附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报855.42元/ 克，涨幅0.50%，最高触及862.10元/克，最低下探855.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在9月的利率决议会议上，美联储内部呈现出显著的意见分歧态势，不过鲍威尔始终展现出沉稳冷静的 姿态。近期，特朗普再度发力，加大对美联储的政策施压强度，此举不仅强化了市场对于美联储长期秉 持"鸽派"政策走向的预期，也对美元的国际公信力构成了更为严峻的挑战。 自今年就任以来，特朗普多次公开指责美联储降息步伐迟缓，甚至曾放出狠话称要罢免鲍威尔的职务。 此外，在8月初美联储理事库格勒提前离任之后，特朗普迅速做出人事安排，任命其经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰临时接任该职位。当前，美联储理事会共有7名成员，其中沃勒与鲍曼均系特朗普提名人 选。倘若明年鲍威尔卸去主席之位并依惯例辞去理事职务，那么届时由特朗普所任命的理事会成员数量 或将增至5人。这一潜在变化无疑会进一步加深市场对美联储独立性受损的忧虑。 从整体情况来看，尽管面临诸多压力， ...