[ 12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国内钯金期货主力合约涨停。当 日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司。 ] 年末金属市场掀起涨价狂潮。12月24日，黄金、白银、铜、铂金等国内外价格均创出历史新高，国内钯 金期货主力合约涨停。 当日，伦敦金、银现货价格最高探至4525.83美元/盎司、72.701美元/盎司，沪金、沪银主力合约价格最 高涨至1022.88元/克、17671元/千克；国内铂金、钯金期货主力合约相继涨停，再度分别创出新高 675.65元/克、578.45元/克；铜价也创出历史新高，LME铜最高冲至12282美元/吨，沪铜期货主力合约最 高价为96750元/吨。此外，镍的价格也在近期急速上涨。 南华期货高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，此轮金属市场价格上涨是在降息周期大背景下，叠加了地缘政 治、产业周期的扰动，资金逐利共同推动的。国泰君安期货有色及贵金属研究团队认为，这轮金属价格 的集体狂飙，本质上是宏观流动性宽松+供需紧平衡+AI浪潮下的三重共振。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达也称，2025年金属板块的强势表现缘于宏观金融政策与供需结构 ...

近一个月以来，伦敦现货白银价格不断创新高。数据显示，自11月24日触底反弹以来，伦敦现货白银价 格涨幅超过30%。对于本轮白银飙升，笔者认为核心驱动来自以下三个方面：宏观流动性宽松、供需矛 盾加剧及投资需求拉动。 综上，近期，白银期货价格的大幅上涨，是宏观宽松预期、供应结构性短缺及投资需求共振的结果。短 期来看，白银价格已计入大量乐观预期，回调风险逐步累积。但中长期而言，美联储宽松周期未结束、 绿色能源产业需求刚性增长、供需缺口持续存在等核心逻辑未被破坏，白银价格仍具备趋势性支撑。伦 敦白银现货价格预计维持在60美元／盎司之上。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、美联储主席候选人情况 以及美国"232调查"结果及库存变化等关键变量。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更 ...

首先，宏观流动性方面，美联储年内三次降息，2026年降息预期强化。10年期美债收益率回落至 4.16%，实际利率下行推升非生息资产吸引力。美元指数跌破100关口，人民币汇率走强至7.05附近。这 进一步打开了白银上涨空间。 近一个月以来，伦敦现货白银价格不断创新高。数据显示，自11月24日触底反弹以来，伦敦现货白银价 格涨幅超过30%。对于本轮白银飙升，笔者认为核心驱动来自以下三个方面：宏观流动性宽松、供需矛 盾加剧及投资需求拉动。 最后，不容忽视的是，政策不确定性加剧市场情绪。美国对白银的"232调查"结果预计于2026年1月17日 公布。关税政策的不确定性引发市场对未来进口成本上升的担忧，刺激投资者提前囤积现货，进一步加 剧了现货紧张局面，推升短期价格。 综上，近期，白银期货价格的大幅上涨，是宏观宽松预期、供应结构性短缺及投资需求共振的结果。短 期来看，白银价格已计入大量乐观预期，回调风险逐步累积。但中长期而言，美联储宽松周期未结束、 绿色能源产业需求刚性增长、供需缺口持续存在等核心逻辑未被破坏，白银价格仍具备趋势性支撑。伦 敦白银现货价格预计维持在60美元／盎司之上。后续重点关注美联储政策表态、美联储主 ...

12月22日，广期所铂、钯期货价格再度涨停。其中，铂期货主力2606合约价格报收568.45元/克，上涨 6.99%；钯期货主力2606合约价格报收508.45元/克，上涨7%。值得关注的是，当日，外盘现货铂突破 2000美元/盎司重要关口，为2008年以来首次。 顾冯达也表示，铂市场已连续3年处于供需紧平衡状态。供应端，主要矿山产能增长有限，部分产区面 临生产扰动；需求端，虽然传统汽车的催化剂领域受电动车发展的结构性影响，但随着铂载量要求的提 高、氢能产业进程的推进，以及铂在化工、医疗等工业领域的稳定应用，仍为其需求提供了多元支撑。 中长期来看，供需结构对铂价格有托底作用。 从钯基本面看，王美丹表示，今年以来，钯已转为供应过剩状态，预计2026年供应过剩量会进一步扩大 至约16.9吨，偏弱的基本面对钯价形成压制。 顾冯达认为，当前铂、钯的供需结构并未全面改善，当前铂族金属的价格上涨本质上是对宏观层面等有 较强预期的表现，一旦市场情绪转向，或出现快速回调的可能。 展望后市，叶倩宁认为，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分交易者选择"抢跑"配 置，这反映在ETF持续增加衍生品持仓上。因此在缺乏明确 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged significantly, with the London spot silver price exceeding $66 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 3.5% as of December 17, and a total increase of over 32% since November 24 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices has led to a decline in the gold-silver ratio, reaching a four-year low [2] - Key drivers for silver's stronger performance compared to gold include macro liquidity easing, intensified supply-demand imbalances, and increased investment demand [2] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2023 and expectations for further cuts in 2026 have contributed to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.16%, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market has experienced structural shortages for several years, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and AI growing rapidly, while mineral supply remains constrained [2] - It is projected that the silver market will face a shortfall of 3,660 tons by 2025, with over 50% of demand driven by industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by the fact that 72% of mined silver is sourced from copper, lead, and zinc by-products [2] Group 3: Market Behavior and Risks - The COMEX futures market is currently facing significant physical delivery demands, leading to a "short squeeze" that amplifies price increases [3] - Analysts caution about potential short-term pullback risks due to the rapid price increase, with concerns that the market may enter an overbought territory [3] - The RSI indicator for silver is above 85, indicating severe overbought conditions, and the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX silver have reached a record high since 2020, suggesting accumulated profit-taking pressure [3]

转自：中国经营网 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 12月16日，现货铂金XPT最高触及1834.94美元/盎司，年内涨幅超过90%。 沈学昂强调，在供给缺口延续、流动性宽松以及氢能叙事推进的背景下，铂金中长期仍有上涨空间。短 期内则可能受其他贵金属情绪外溢影响，波动加大。他还特别提到，国内铂金期货价格已较外盘出现一 定溢价，随着国内铂钯期货市场发展，国内定价话语权有望提升。 南华期货方面指出，从中长期看，铂金的牛市基础仍在，短期看国内期货市场资金集中涌入导致铂金国 内外价差走扩，短期需警惕调整风险。展望2026年，预计美联储在2026年上半年继续采取宽松货币政策 的政策基调不变，投资需求仍有望上升；另一方面，预计2026年铂金仍将保持供需面偏紧的格局。 12月16日，国内铂金大盘价站上400元/克。 谈到铂金价格大涨的原因，中信期货研究所有色与新材料组高级研究员王雨欣分析表示，主要受两方面 因素推动：一是市场对美联储独立性减弱与降息空间扩大的预期增强，二是现货市场供需再度收紧。她 指出，随着美联储主席提名临近，市场开始交易"美联储独立性风险"，潜在候选人政策倾向偏鸽，叠加 即将公布的非农数据可能偏弱， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the sharp adjustment in the night session last week, precious metal prices are expected to enter a short - term oscillatory trend. Given that ETF holdings are still in an inflow state, prices are unlikely to decline continuously in the short term. Long - term, the center of gravity of gold prices will likely move up, and long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - On December 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.33% to 970.66 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.75% to 14,892 yuan/kilogram [3] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - After the Fed cut interest rates in December and restarted RME, loose macro - liquidity drove precious metal prices higher. London spot gold approached a record high, and London spot silver hit a new record high. However, due to risk - control measures by exchanges, there was significant profit - taking pressure, leading to a pullback in prices. Statements from Fed and BOJ officials, stock market declines, and potential geopolitical risk mitigation also affected prices. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and this week, events like US non - farm payrolls, OPI, PCE, and the BOJ interest - rate decision should be watched. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Medium - to - Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long run, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the long - term upward movement of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] 4. Data Tracking Price Tracking - On December 12, compared with December 11, the prices of London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all rose, with increases ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. The price differences between TD and SHFE active contracts of gold and silver, and between domestic and foreign markets also changed to varying degrees, with changes ranging from - 21.1% to 21.8% [3] Position Data - Compared with December 11, on December 12, the positions of non - commercial long and short in COMEX gold and silver changed, with the long - position change in COMEX gold reaching 1.37% and the short - position change in COMEX silver reaching - 6.95%. The holdings of gold and silver ETFs also increased slightly [3] Inventory Data - On December 12, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17% compared with December 11, while SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.41% and 0.54% respectively [3] Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market Data - On December 12, the dollar/yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07%, the dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.21%, the VIX increased by 5.99%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.07%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.67% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that copper futures have strengthened, with the main contract surpassing the 94,000 mark, reaching a new high [1] - Codelco's copper production dropped to 111,000 tons in October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [2] - The copper industry in Shandong aims to exceed 200 billion yuan in output value by 2027, promoting related industries to surpass 1 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and Powell's comments on labor market risks are expected to support copper prices due to a weaker dollar [4] - Despite a recent technical correction in copper prices due to large long positions being liquidated, the fundamental supply shortage and structural imbalance in global copper inventories support a price floor [4] - The tightening supply of copper concentrate and low domestic inventories are expected to keep copper prices strong in the short term [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) rebounding to 93k, approaching the 30-day moving average of 94k, likely due to favorable macroeconomic conditions such as the end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT) and increased liquidity [1] - BTC is currently in a key price range of 93-93.8K, with weakening resistance and a potential upward movement in a volatile channel, indicating a significant rebound opportunity [1] - The liquidation map shows demand for liquidation around 96k, while there is also a need for a pullback to 90k and 88k, suggesting that key levels will be tested before any breakout [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Analysis - The recent price movements of BTC indicate a three-phase rebound pattern, with previous rebounds of 12%, 10%, and 16% occurring over 10 days, one week, and 12 days respectively [1] - The current trading environment suggests caution in chasing high prices, as significant resistance exists around 96k [1] Group 3: Ethereum Analysis - Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a 4-hour level main upward wave pattern, with a projected high around the 1.618 Fibonacci level, targeting a price range of 3380-3400 for potential short positions [3] - ETH is facing strong resistance, indicating a need for a pullback, with potential support levels identified between 3120 and 3080 [5] Group 4: Solana Analysis - Solana (SOL) has shown a strong upward movement but is now showing signs of fatigue, with a recent rebound from 123 to 146.85 without a normal pullback [6] - Key resistance levels for SOL are identified at 150.75 and 157, with a potential short opportunity if the price does not pull back significantly from 146.85 [7] Group 5: HYPE and VSN Analysis - HYPE has shown a clear divergence at its peak price, indicating potential for a short position if it aligns with corrections in BTC and ETH [11] - VSN is showing signs of wanting to break out of a long-term descending channel, with recent volume increases suggesting a favorable risk-reward scenario despite existing risks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a period of oscillation around the 4000-point mark on the Shanghai Composite Index, influenced by various factors including changes in US-China relations and liquidity concerns in overseas markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a consolidation phase, primarily due to short-term profit-taking pressures from funds and a lack of consensus among market participants [1] - The market is characterized by a structural performance under the index's oscillation, with rapid rotation among various sectors [2] - The current environment is conducive to "small-cap + thematic investment" strategies, as the market is in a performance vacuum with weak fundamental guidance [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Recent concerns over tightening overseas liquidity and fears surrounding AI business models have dampened market risk appetite [2] - The 4000-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index serves as both a technical and psychological barrier, necessitating repeated oscillation to digest this level [2] - The fourth quarter is a critical period for institutional portfolio rebalancing, particularly following a dominant tech style in the market [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain its current state, with a focus on new leading themes as funds may shift towards more aggressive strategies [1] - Attention is drawn to upcoming US economic data and potential changes in interest rate expectations, which could further influence market dynamics [1]