美元走软，放大了美国遭受的关税冲击。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家Gourinchas：关税加重全球增速疲软的风险。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have risen to a one-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, with investors closely monitoring trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by favorable technical factors and a general weakness in the dollar [1] - The potential for the U.S. and its trade partners to fail to reach an agreement may create uncertainty, prompting market participants to engage in hedging activities [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA, highlights that the combination of a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields enhances the attractiveness of gold as an investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has weakened, allowing emerging market currencies to recover some of their losses, with the Mexican peso reaching its highest point against the dollar during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso has appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a positive movement for the currency [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs has revised its prediction for the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut from December to September, reflecting a new assessment of the current economic conditions and future inflation trends [1] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation appears to be smaller than previously expected, with other factors contributing more significantly to the decline in inflation [1] - Asian economies are facing major risks due to current U.S. tariff policies and trade tensions, with Vietnam being particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on U.S. market demand [2] Group 2: Currency Trends - Lombard Odier strategists expect the U.S. dollar to continue weakening over the next 12 months, with a fair value estimate for EUR/USD around 1.15, suggesting caution in a wider range of 1.15-1.20 due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The Japanese yen has appreciated by 9% over the past six months, driven by global trade tensions and calls for U.S. interest rate cuts, with July historically being a strong month for the yen [3] Group 3: Real Estate and Inflation - Germany is facing a housing shortage, with recent real estate downturns hindering construction activities and causing rent increases, prompting the government to expand rent control measures [4] - In 2023, German property prices fell over 10%, but a 3.8% increase projected for Q1 2025 indicates a significant reversal, particularly in major cities like Berlin, Munich, and Frankfurt [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are rising due to optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts later this year, alongside a weakening US dollar [1][2] - Gold prices increased by 1.17%, reaching $3341.30 per ounce, with a trading range between $3271.90 and $3342.21 per ounce on July 1 [1] - Market participants are anticipating at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, influenced by upcoming employment reports that may catalyze a decline in US Treasury yields, which typically benefits gold [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that while gold prices are generally trending upwards, the short-term outlook has shifted to neutral to slightly bearish, with a critical support level at $3200 [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average at $3322 could open up further downside potential for gold prices [3] - The recent focus remains on whether economic data will indicate a slowdown in economic activity, which could enable the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [2]

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]

Group 1 - London copper prices experienced a slight decline, with three-month copper down by $36 or 0.36% to $9,842 per ton, following a three-month high reached last Friday [3] - The Shanghai copper market saw the most active August contract drop by 120 yuan or 0.15% to 79,650 yuan per ton [5] - The financial markets were buoyed by the announcement from the Canadian government to cancel the digital services tax, aiming for a "mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement" with the U.S. [5][6] Group 2 - The dollar's weakness provided support to the metal markets, keeping the dollar index near a three-year low [7] - A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for overseas buyers, potentially increasing demand [8] - COMEX copper fell by 0.8% to $5.08 per pound, with the premium of COMEX over LME copper slightly decreasing to $1,365 per ton [9]

Group 1 - LME copper prices surged to a nearly three-month high, driven by a weak dollar, supply concerns, and speculative buying after key technical levels were breached [1][3] - As of June 26, LME three-month copper rose by $187, or 1.93%, closing at $9,899.5 per ton, marking the strongest level since March 27 [1][2] - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month copper rebounded to $310 per ton, the highest since November 2021 [4] Group 2 - The dollar index fell to its lowest level since early 2022, weakening confidence in the robustness of U.S. monetary policy, which supports commodity prices [3] - Active buying in the Chinese copper market was noted, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contracts rising by 0.6% to 79,000 yuan (approximately $11,022.74), the highest since June 11 [6] - LME copper has increased by 22% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [6] Group 3 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month zinc rising by $63.5, or 2.35%, to $2,768.0 per ton, and three-month tin increasing by $556, or 1.68%, to $33,749.0 per ton [2][6]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have surged to a three-month high, driven by a weaker dollar and supply concerns, alongside increasing demand from China [1] Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift in supply and demand, with the possibility of China emerging as a new demand driver for copper [1]

Core Insights - The weakening of the US dollar has diminished the attractiveness of holding cash, as indicated by a survey conducted by French foreign trade bank investment management [1] Group 1: Survey Findings - 41% of respondents believe that currency depreciation is the primary risk associated with holding cash [1] - 38% of participants think that better returns can be found elsewhere, making cash less appealing [1] - Concerns about inflation are significant, with 35% of respondents stating that cash interest rates are insufficient to meet long-term goals [1]