金十数据7月30日讯，美国经济在第一季度萎缩之后，在第二季度恢复增长，这主要归因于贸易波动。 美国商务部表示，美国第二季度GDP增速为3%，超过了经济学家们的预期2.4%。此前，由于企业为应 对特朗普政府预期的关税而大量进口，第一季度GDP以0.5%的年率萎缩。第二季度GDP报告标志着特 朗普政府关税政策引发经济不确定性的半年结束。特朗普已将关税作为其经济议程的基石，并表示从长 远来看，关税将使美国更加富裕，并带回制造业就业岗位。不过，经济学家表示，越来越多的迹象表 明，消费者和企业在特朗普设定的最后期限前处于观望状态。一些经济学家预计，特朗普政府的贸易和 移民政策需要时间来影响通胀和劳动力市场。 美国第二季度经济增速为3% 超出预期 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，美国二季度经济增长超过预期，从年初因贸易冲突带来的下滑中反弹。然而，即 便如此，经济增长的整体趋势仍略显放缓，相较近几年处于较低水平。数据显示，剔除通胀因素后，美 国二季度实际GDP年化季率初值增长了3%，超过预期。与一季度-0.5%相比，二季度的增长构成了显著 反弹。年初，美国企业为了规避特朗普总统提高关税的政策，大量提前进口商品，导致第一季度进口激 增，从而大幅拉低了当季GDP增长。而在接下来的三个月中，这一趋势发生逆转。特朗普在4月2日宣布 的激进关税措施，起初对企业和消费者的实际冲击并未如预期那般严重，反而带动了经济数据的修复。 美国二季度经济反弹幅度大于预期 但整体趋势仍略显放缓 ...

美国经济分析局7月30日发布数据显示，美国第二季度经济折合年率增长3.0%。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with current trading around the support levels established previously [1][4] - COMEX gold prices have declined to $3371.3 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.77%, while domestic SHFE gold prices are reported at 778.08 yuan per gram, down 0.78% [3] - The latest PMI data shows a significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.5, below expectations, while the services PMI is at 55.2, indicating a reliance on the service sector for economic growth [3] Group 2 - The weekly chart suggests that gold prices are expected to remain within the range of $3000 to $3500 for the second half of the year, with potential upward movement anticipated next year [4] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on the support and resistance levels, with key support identified at $3350 or $3335 and resistance at $3382 or $3393 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is likely to weaken significantly by the end of the year due to underwhelming economic growth in the Eurozone, despite current market expectations being more favorable than those for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Growth Expectations - Market expectations for Eurozone growth are currently better than those for the U.S. [1] - The company anticipates that even if the U.S. does not impose the proposed 30% tariffs on EU imports, these growth expectations will still not be met [1] Fiscal Policy Impact - The company believes that loose fiscal policies will boost economic growth in Germany [1] - However, the overall impact of fiscal policy on the Eurozone is expected to be neutral [1] Tariff Effects - The macroeconomic research firm predicts that the impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth will be relatively mild [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant drop in ADP employment numbers for June, which decreased by 33,000 jobs, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of an increase of 100,000 jobs. This marks the first negative reading since March 2023 and indicates underlying issues in the employment market despite its apparent strength [1][3][5]. Group 2 - The service sector is the hardest hit, with professional and business services losing 56,000 jobs, followed by the education and healthcare sector with a reduction of 52,000 jobs, and financial activities decreasing by 14,000 jobs. The Midwest and Western regions also saw job losses of 24,000 and 20,000 respectively, while the Southern region barely maintained slight growth [3][5]. - Small businesses, defined as those with fewer than 20 employees, experienced a net loss of 29,000 jobs, highlighting their vulnerability under high interest rates and policy uncertainty, whereas larger companies with over 500 employees added 30,000 jobs [3][5]. - ADP's Chief Economist Neela Richardson pointed out that while mass layoffs have not occurred, companies are adopting a strategy of "freezing hiring" and "not filling vacancies," leading to a passive contraction in employment. The average monthly job growth over the past three months has been only 18,700, the lowest since the onset of the pandemic [5][7]. Group 3 - The tightening of immigration policies has led to a decline in foreign labor, resulting in a reduction of 2 million in labor supply, which is more impactful than tariff effects. A recent study warns that net immigration in the U.S. could reach zero or even negative this year, necessitating the creation of only 10,000 to 40,000 jobs monthly to maintain the current unemployment rate, but this could permanently damage economic growth potential [5][7]. - Following the ADP data release, traders increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July from 20% to 27.4%, with expectations for at least two rate cuts by the end of the year. The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as economists expect an addition of 110,000 jobs, but past data revisions have raised concerns about the reliability of these figures [7].

Core Insights - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report may reignite concerns over economic growth and increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts [1] - Economists predict an increase of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3% [1] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that inflation remains further from the target compared to employment, suggesting the Federal Reserve should adopt a cautious stance on rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.97%, the Dow Jones up 0.94%, and the S&P 500 up 0.8%, marking near historical closing highs for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Netflix, Amazon, and Meta rising over 2%, while Microsoft, Google, and Intel rose over 1%. Nvidia continued to reach new highs, while Apple and Tesla saw slight declines [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, fell by 0.29%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese concept stocks. Xiaomi Group's ADR surged nearly 10% after announcing significant pre-orders for its electric vehicle [1] Group 2 - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.5% annualized decline in real GDP for Q1, reversing a previous growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024, marking the first economic contraction in three years [2] - The decline in GDP was primarily due to a significant 37.9% increase in imports, the fastest growth since 2020, which negatively impacted GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points, and a 4.6% decrease in government spending, the largest drop since 1986 [2] - Durable goods orders in May saw a preliminary month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, driven by a 230% increase in non-defense aircraft orders [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that lower-than-expected inflation data or a weak job market could lead to earlier interest rate cuts, with market expectations for three rate cuts within the year [2][3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that tariffs could raise inflation in the coming months but suggested that the impact would not be as severe as previously experienced [2][3] - Goldman Sachs cautioned investors to be wary of low-quality stocks in the current bullish market, as their price increases may be driven by short-sellers covering positions rather than strong fundamentals [3][4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unpredictability of Trump's policies and their impact on the U.S. economy, suggesting that his approach of externalizing internal issues does not address the root problems of the economy [1] - It highlights that the driving force behind the U.S. economy is internal innovation rather than external factors, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation for sustained economic growth [2][5] - The article outlines the historical economic growth cycles in the U.S., noting a significant decline in total factor productivity growth since the 1970s, which has contributed to the erosion of the "American Dream" [5][6] Group 2 - The article explains the "tunnel effect" in social psychology, where economic stagnation exacerbates social tensions, leading to a perception of inequality and frustration among the lower classes [6][11] - It argues that the U.S. economy is currently facing a bottleneck due to over-saturation in the market and the offshoring of manufacturing jobs, which has resulted in a decline in domestic job opportunities [7][8] - The transition from an industrial to a service-based economy has not yielded the same level of technological advancement as previous industrial revolutions, raising questions about the overall impact on economic growth [8][9] Group 3 - The article points out that despite the rise of the internet economy, the overall contribution to productivity growth has been limited, with many innovations not translating into significant economic benefits for the majority [9][10] - It discusses the phenomenon of "jobless growth," where technological advancements do not create proportional job opportunities, particularly for lower-skilled workers [10][11] - The concentration of wealth among a small number of individuals due to globalization and capital-intensive industries has led to increased inequality and reduced opportunities for the average worker [11][12] Group 4 - The article suggests that revitalizing innovation is crucial for economic recovery, proposing policies such as a super tax rate to address inequality and improve public services [12][13] - It critiques Trump's policies as failing to address the deeper structural issues in the economy, arguing that they may hinder long-term growth and innovation [12][13] - The need for structural reforms is emphasized, as avoiding necessary changes could lead to greater long-term costs, particularly for the most vulnerable populations [13]