2. 富国银行：下半年更看跌美元，避险备胎正在受益 富国银行宏观策略师Erik Nelson表示，"下半年我们更看跌美元。会出现更多疲软的美国硬数据、美联 储开始像市场预测的那样真的降息、美国资产部分抛售以及对美联储独立性的担忧，很可能重新回到人 们的视野中。"瑞银财富管理资深美国经济学家Brian Rose认为，"一切都取决于美联储的独立性。如果 担心美联储失去独立性，就会严重损害美元的避险地位。我们看到，在当前形势下，日元或瑞郎这些避 险货币的备胎正在受益。" 国外 1. 富国银行：美国4月份CPI上涨可能加速 关税正促使市场机构为更高的通胀做好准备。富国银行经济学家在下周美国CPI报告发布前写道，4月 份消费者价格上涨可能加速。他们预计，在3月份出人意料地下降0.1%之后，4月CPI月率将上涨0.2%。 经济学家说，这将使CPI年率降至2.3%的四年低点。他们预计核心CPI年率将维持在2.8%不变。他们表 示，随着关税已经成为现实，"我们认为，更高的进口成本会影响到消费者价格，这只是时间问题。" 3. 德商银行：美联储料保持观望，静待贸易政策影响显现 德商银行表示，今天市场焦点转向了美联储FOMC利率决 ...

Inflation Data Summary - The overall CPI for March in the U.S. was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month change of -0.05% compared to February's 0.22%[1] - Core CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year core CPI was reported at 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.0%[1] Market Reactions - Despite the significant cooling of inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing tariff impacts, with little change in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[3] - Long-term yields continued to rise, and U.S. stock markets experienced a decline after opening[1] Tariff Impact - Tariffs remain a core variable influencing market and Federal Reserve decisions, with uncertainty surrounding their effects on growth and inflation data[3] - The Richmond Fed President indicated that the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation may not be fully realized until June[3] Core CPI Components - Most components of core CPI showed a cooling trend, particularly in volatile categories like school accommodations and transportation services, which contributed significantly to the inflation decline[1] - The core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%, indicating a negative growth trend[6] Specific Item Changes - Energy prices saw a significant month-on-month decline of 2.39%, while food prices increased by 0.44%[7] - The core goods category turned negative with a month-on-month change of -0.09%, reflecting a slowdown in previously rising furniture and clothing prices[6]