Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating uncertainty in the labor market, which complicates their decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3][4] - There is a cautious tone from the Fed, as they lack real-time data on jobs and economic indicators, leading to a reliance on interpretation rather than concrete data [4][6] - The market seems to be absorbing the impact of tariffs as temporary and muted, with inflation remaining above the Fed's target but not showing significant upward pressure [8][9][10] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is preserving optionality in their approach to interest rates, indicating a division within the committee on future rate paths [2][4] - There is a suggestion that the labor market's weakness may be prolonged rather than a short-term blip, which could influence future rate cuts [4][5] - The Fed is cautious about making decisions based on sentiment rather than data, highlighting the importance of upcoming labor market data [6][10] Inflation and Market Response - Long-term Treasury yields are not reflecting heightened inflation concerns, suggesting that the market is comfortable with the current inflation levels [7][10] - Inflation has not shown a significant decline, remaining flat due to tariffs, but there is an expectation that it will eventually decrease as tariffs are absorbed [9][10] - The Fed is wary of incorporating assumptions into their policy decisions without clearer labor market data, which could lead to unexpected outcomes [10]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in December, contrary to previous expectations of a 25 basis point cut [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady in December reflects a shift in market expectations [1] - The previous forecast of a 25 basis point reduction indicates a change in economic outlook and monetary policy considerations [1]

Core Insights - The central bank's interest rate stance significantly impacts various financial products including car loans, credit cards, mortgages, savings, and student loans [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Impact on Loans - Car loans are influenced by the central bank's interest rate decisions, affecting affordability for consumers [1] - Credit card interest rates are also tied to the central bank's rates, which can lead to higher costs for borrowers [1] - Mortgages are directly affected by interest rate changes, impacting home buying and refinancing activities [1] Group 2: Savings and Student Loans - Savings accounts yield lower returns when interest rates are low, affecting consumer savings behavior [1] - Student loans are impacted by interest rates, influencing the cost of education financing for students [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant decline of over 2% this week, ending an eight-week winning streak due to heavy profit-taking by investors [3][7] - The market saw substantial outflows from gold ETFs, which contributed to the weakening buying momentum and pushed gold prices briefly down to $4,100/oz [5][7] - A softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Friday helped revive optimism for another Federal Reserve rate cut, stabilizing gold prices above $4,100 [6][7] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is highly anticipated, with traders closely monitoring remarks from Fed Chair Powell amid the ongoing government shutdown [7] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in speculative buying in gold has retreated, with investors focusing on locking in profits as gold prices approached all-time highs [3][4] - The "quiet period" before the FOMC meeting has led to a slowdown in updates regarding interest rate decisions, contributing to a lack of new upward momentum for gold prices [4][5] - The easing of trade war tensions and muted headlines regarding tariffs on Chinese imports have also contributed to the risk-off sentiment in the market [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Noan Fund remains optimistic about the long-term upward trend of gold prices, especially after the London spot gold price surpassed $4000, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to central banks in some Asian and Middle Eastern countries continuously increasing their gold reserves [1] - The recent rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar index, along with a decrease in the VIX index, indicates market volatility, while global gold ETF holdings have accelerated [1] Group 2 - As of now, there are over 142,000 gold-related enterprises in China, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Hunan provinces having the highest number of such enterprises [2] - Nearly 30% of these enterprises were established within the last five years, and 6.77% were founded within the last year [2]

Core Insights - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed concerns that the government shutdown will hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to the lack of official economic data [1] - Goolsbee specifically highlighted the potential absence of crucial inflation data, which poses a significant issue for the Fed [1] Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, will halt the operations of agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data [1] - Key reports that may be affected include the employment report scheduled for October 3 and the Consumer Price Index report set for October 15, both critical for assessing inflation [1] - Additional reports from the Census Bureau regarding retail sales and new residential construction are also at risk of delays [1] Inflation Concerns - Goolsbee reiterated worries about the recent rise in service sector inflation, suggesting that price pressures may persist in parts of the economy least affected by tariffs [1] - The next Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where policymakers will face challenges in evaluating economic trends with incomplete data [1]

美国政府停摆"黑天鹅" 大家好，10月的第一天，你们都出发了吗？路上肯定很堵吧，一起看看今晚海外市场的表现。 美股震荡 9月30日晚间，美股三大指数集体下跌，背后原因是美国政府面临关门危机。 分析师表示："就华盛顿而言，市场普遍预期关门会发生，所以投资者目前基本按兵不动，但如果持续超过两周，人们会开始更加担心。" 野村发达市场首席经济学家大卫·塞夫表示，政府关门至少不会改变美联储在10月份即将召开的会议上的决定。公布的数据越少，美联储 就越没有理由偏离点阵图，点阵图显示10月份调整25个基点。"无论他们是否拿到数据，我们的观点都是，这一举措都会发生。" 分析指出，随着美国政府停摆的可能性上升，股市震荡加剧，市场担忧停摆会持续多久，以及关键经济数据可能延迟发布将如何影响美联 储即将到来的利率决策。 尽管政府关门通常不会显著推动市场波动，但这一次可能不同，因为投资者已对劳动力市场放缓、滞胀风险和偏高的股票估值保持警惕。 关门还可能促使评级机构重新评估美国信用状况，穆迪已在5月下调过评级。 众议院议长、路易斯安那州共和党人迈克·约翰逊表示，他对能否在午夜最后期限前避免关门"持怀疑态度"，称结果取决于参议院少数党 领 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97 [2] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector rose due to a significant increase in oil prices [2] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares increased by 4.0%, while Microsoft rose by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8% [2] - Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of the company planning to raise $15 billion through bond issuance [2] Economic Data - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.8%, with Alibaba increasing by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu rising over 5%, and Pinduoduo up by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [3] - In August, new home sales in the US increased by 20.5% from July, reaching an annualized total of 800,000 units, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications due to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious remarks have injected a degree of caution into the market, particularly regarding the labor market, leading some investors to take profits [3] - Powell indicated that asset prices appear to be at "relatively high valuation levels," and emphasized the need for a balance between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further rate cuts may be necessary due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [4] Bond Market - The yields on long-term US Treasury bonds have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.1 basis points to 4.14%, and the 2-year yield rising by 3.2 basis points to 3.60% [4] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [5] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is seen as appropriate, with potential for further cuts by the end of the year, totaling 75 basis points [2][5]. Rate Cuts and Future Projections - The Fed's strategy includes monitoring inflation and job numbers, allowing for flexibility in future rate adjustments [3][6]. - Aiming for a total of 100 basis points in cuts within the next year, with a possibility of reaching neutral territory by the end of the first quarter [5]. Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains in the high 2% range, and the Fed seeks assurance that it will trend down to the target of 2% [6][19]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered limited, as the foreign goods portion in the U.S. consumption basket is relatively small [8]. Market Confidence and Interest Rates - The credibility of the Fed is crucial for maintaining lower long-term interest rates, as market confidence in the Fed's policies influences the yield curve [10][11]. - Political pressure to lower rates quickly could undermine the Fed's control over long-term rates, leading to increased inflation risk premiums [14][15]. Neutral Rate and Economic Growth - The neutral federal funds rate is estimated to be around 3% to 3.25%, while some argue it could be 100 basis points lower, providing more maneuvering room for the Fed [17][18]. - Anticipated economic growth in the coming years may add inflationary pressure, necessitating careful policy considerations [19][20].

美联储即将召开9月利率决策会议，但近期发生的一系列异常事件，给这场重要会议增添了许多不确定性。 9月15日晚间，美联储理事丽莎·库克收到联邦上诉法院的裁决，确认她可以参加本次会议。这起事件源于美国总统特朗普此前试图解雇她，理由是怀疑她在 银行监管问题上提供了不实陈述。就在库克事件尘埃落定的第二天，白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰在参议院批准后，宣誓就任美联储新理事。这场 宣誓仪式由亚特兰大法官伊丽莎白·布兰奇主持，而非惯例中的美联储主席鲍威尔或其他理事，这一安排显得格外引人注目。 面对这些变数，美联储主席鲍威尔正承受着巨大的决策压力。市场分析人士指出，在是否降息25个基点的问题上，鲍威尔将面临来自两个阵营的反对声音。 一方面，以新上任的米兰为代表的特朗普任命官员认为，过高的利率会抑制经济增长；另一方面，多位地区联储行长则担心，在当前通胀水平低于目标值的 情况下，继续刺激经济可能带来风险。 02 回顾鲍威尔2018年执掌美联储以来的经历，仅在2019年出现过一次政策分歧。当时美联储内部就是否应该为应对中美贸易战的影响而降息产生争议，最终有 两位官员反对降息决定，另有一位认为降息幅度过大。如今，类似的意见分歧可 ...