美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启 动刑事调查。 对此，鲍威尔予以证实，司法部已在1月10日向美联储发出传票，并指出该威胁背后是白宫方面出于对美联储利率 决策的不满。 鲍威尔还表示，这关乎美联储能否继续依据证据和经济状况制定利率。他在美联储任职期间历经四届政府更迭， 始终专注于实现价格稳定与充分就业的法定使命，公共服务有时需要在威胁面前坚守立场。他将继续恪守参议院 确认的职责，以正直之心履行使命。 特朗普称该成本从27亿美元跃升至31亿美元，这种情况下他通常会解雇项目经理。但鲍威尔再次质疑数据来源， 因为它不是来自美联储内部，特朗普似乎将另一栋大楼的成本加在了正在翻修的两栋大楼上，美联储有储备，如 果需要的话还应付得来。 据悉该项目在前总统拜登时期（2019年）动工。最初的预算约19亿美元，但受通货膨胀影响，木材、钢铁和水泥 等建材成本大幅上涨，加上管道和电路全需更换，预算增至近25亿美元。 白宫管理和预算办公室主任罗素·沃特此前也因美联储大楼翻修而严厉质询鲍威尔，甚至将该项目比作法国的凡尔 赛宫。美联储称这是近一百年前建成的总部大楼首次全面翻修 ...

据CME"美联储观察"：非农数据公布后，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率2.8%（公布前为11.6%），维 持利率不变的概率升至97.2%（公布前为88.4%）。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为32.3%（公布前为 35.8%），维持利率不变的概率为66.8%（公布前为60.6%），累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%（公布前 为3.7%）。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite challenges in the coming year, opportunities are expected, with a strong belief in continued global economic growth [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2% to 3% due to the effects of interest rate cuts by 2026, supported by low mortgage rates and stable real income [1] - Outside the U.S., economic growth is expected to slightly improve due to a stable job market and improved tariff conditions, with Germany and China implementing significant development plans and stimulus measures [1] Group 2 - U.S. inflation is expected to stabilize by 2026, but reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target may take longer due to the need for service prices and wages to weaken further [2] - The inflation situation in most countries outside the U.S. has reached targets, allowing central banks to implement more stimulus measures, with Eurozone inflation expected to drop below 2% [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be data-driven, with potential fewer rate cuts in 2026 due to strong economic growth, necessitating a careful balance between supporting employment and stabilizing prices [2] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high in 2026, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-China strategic competition impacting global trade flows [3] - The U.S. has relied more on fiscal policy than monetary policy for economic support since the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to long-term inflation pressures and increased financing difficulties for the government [3] - The independence of central banks is crucial, as any signals weakening inflation targets in pursuit of higher growth could heighten investor uncertainty and increase risk premiums [3]

Group 1 - The central bank of China set the RMB to USD central parity rate at 7.0197, a decrease of 10 points [2][6] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 88.4% [3][8] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is 11.6% [3][8] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 40.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 55.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 4.3% [3][8]

Market Overview - The major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance at the opening, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.21%, the S&P 500 up by 0.36%, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.46% as of 23:00 [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector saw mixed results among the "Big Seven" tech companies, with Nvidia rising nearly 3% and Amazon increasing over 2%, while Apple and Tesla both fell over 3%, with Tesla's market value dropping by 310 billion yuan [1] - Tesla announced new financing options for its Model 3/Y vehicles, with down payments starting at 79,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 1,918 yuan [1] Semiconductor Sector - The storage sector stocks surged, with SanDisk rising by 22.79% to reach an intraday all-time high, and Micron Technology increasing by 7% to $334 per share, surpassing a market capitalization of $370 billion [2][4] - Other semiconductor companies also saw gains, including Microchip Technology up over 8% and Texas Instruments up by 5.97% [4] Data Center Cooling Stocks - Data center cooling stocks experienced significant declines, with Johnson Controls and Trane Technologies dropping by 10% at one point, and Modine falling by 20% [4] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, spot silver surpassed $80 per ounce, with an increase of over 4.9%, while spot gold rose by 0.87% to $4,487.678 per ounce [5][6] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective rise, with Bitcoin reaching $94,125.8, up by 1.56%, and Ethereum increasing by 4.55% to $3,292.9 [7][8] Federal Reserve Insights - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for a "fine-tuning" strategy in future interest rate decisions, highlighting the importance of flexibility and data-driven policies [8]

来源：新浪网 1月5日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0230，上调58点。升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为17.2%，维持利率不变的概率为82.8%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为44.1%，维持利率不变的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.0%。 美联储1月维持利率不变的概率为82.8% ...

Group 1 - The central bank of China has adjusted the RMB to USD midpoint rate to 7.0230, marking an increase of 58 points and reaching the highest level since September 30, 2024 [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January is 82.8%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 17.2% [3] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 44.1%, with a 48.9% chance of maintaining the current rate, and a 7.0% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and upcoming economic data, with gold likely to maintain a high-level consolidation and silver exhibiting more pronounced volatility [9] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - Key US economic data, including December non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing index, and housing sales, will be released next week, affecting market expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, which in turn will directly or indirectly impact precious metals [2] - Strong economic data may suppress safe-haven demand for precious metals in the short term, while weak data could boost gold and silver prices [2] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - In an uncertain macro environment with limited dollar fluctuations, gold is likely to continue its high-level consolidation, with key support around $4,380–$4,400 and resistance at the psychological level of $4,500–$4,520 [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but the medium to long-term trend remains bullish [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is more sensitive to dollar and macro data fluctuations, showing higher volatility this week, which may continue into the next week [4] - Support for silver is noted around $75–$76, with resistance near $78 [4] Group 4: Capital Flows - While macro data and dollar trends are key short-term factors, capital behavior remains the core underlying logic for precious metal prices, with capital inflows and structural adjustments potentially creating short-term volatility [5] Group 5: Technical Indicators - Daily and weekly technical indicators show that both gold and silver are above major moving averages, with short-term RSI close to high levels but not yet in the overbought zone, suggesting that prices may maintain a consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal [6] Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - Global geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine situation, Middle East conflicts, and US-Latin America relations, continue to affect market sentiment, with risk events potentially leading to short-term inflows into gold and silver, amplifying price volatility [7] Group 7: Trading Recommendations - Traders should focus on short-term opportunities around the release of macro data, while considering support and resistance levels for operations [8] - Long-term investors should pay attention to the interplay between dollar trends and capital flows to assess the likelihood of trend continuation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's minutes from the December 9-10 policy meeting is expected to highlight divisions among decision-makers regarding the third consecutive rate cut and signal a potential hold on rates into early 2026 [1] Group 1: Rate Decisions and Divergence - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% faced three dissenting votes, with two from regional Fed presidents who believed a rate cut was unnecessary and one from Governor Milan, who has consistently advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points since joining the Fed in September [1] - Fed Chair Powell noted that the 9-3 vote reflects "broad support" among officials, placing the Fed in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding economic developments [3] - Among the 19 decision-makers, six indicated that a rate of 3.9% would be appropriate by the end of 2025, which is higher than the current post-cut rate [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Outlook - There is significant divergence among decision-makers regarding the direction of rates for the coming year, with some advocating for no cuts while others support one or more cuts [4] - A series of delayed economic data due to government shutdowns tends to support a dovish perspective, although economists caution that the missing and estimated data may be highly questionable [4] - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a relatively mild year-over-year increase of 2.7%, but much of the data was collected during the latter half of the month when retailers were offering holiday discounts [4] - A report indicated that the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, but this figure was derived using an unusual method due to the disruption in regular data collection caused by the government shutdown [4]

美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率为83.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为16.1%，维持利率不变的概率为83.9%。到 明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为45.4%，维持利率不变的概率为47.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 6.9%。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月30日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0348，下调17点。 ...