智通财经7月17日电，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.9%，降息25个基点的 概率为4.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为43.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为54.0%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为2.2%。 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.9% ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation report is generally positive, with core inflation rising by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while annual data is slightly above expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Core inflation's monthly increase of 0.2% meets expectations, indicating stability in inflation trends [1] - Annual inflation data is slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting some inflationary pressures may be emerging [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with breathing room, allowing them to maintain interest rates steady in July [1] - The Fed will need to consider data from July and August before making a decision in September [1]

CPI公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率升至97.4% 金十数据7月15日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：CPI数据公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 2.6%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为38.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 34.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.6% | 59.9% | 48.0% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.4% | 38.6% | 17.1% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

金十数据7月15日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为94.8%，降息25个基点的概率为5.2%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.2%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 1.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 37.2% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 5.2% | 60.0% | 46.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 94.8% | 36.9% | 14.8% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为94.8% ...

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [1] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 4.9% [1] - The current interest rate is 4.25%-4.50%, with a 92.8% probability of being maintained in July, decreasing to 29.7% in September and 11.3% in October [4] Group 2 - The expected interest rate ranges for the upcoming meetings are as follows: 3.75%-4.00% has a 42.4% probability in October, while 4.00%-4.25% has a 43.3% probability [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% decreases significantly in the upcoming months, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing unprecedented complexity due to the impact of tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which are significantly influencing interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - The announcement of new tariffs in April has led to a comprehensive adjustment of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasting models, necessitating a reevaluation of inflation prospects [3]. - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from June indicate that policymakers discussed the effects of tariffs in depth, ultimately deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3][5]. - The policy statement highlighted "changes in the global trade environment" as a new risk factor [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's remarks, the bond market reacted with a 5 basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which later rebounded by 3 basis points, reflecting investor confusion regarding policy outlook [5]. - The U.S. labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate at a historical low of 3.8%, while manufacturing activity indices have been below the neutral level for two consecutive months [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for imported goods increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly above historical averages, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Expectations - Despite Powell's current stance against rate cuts, market expectations suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut in September, with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut [6]. - Powell emphasized the need for data reliance and policy flexibility in response to the evolving trade policy landscape, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [8]. - The intertwining of political and economic factors is expected to complicate future monetary policy decisions, as noted by a former Fed official [9].

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 95.3% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is 4.7% [1] - For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 33%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 64% and a 50 basis point cut is 3% [1] Group 2 - The projected interest rate probabilities for the upcoming FOMC meetings are as follows: - 3.25%-3.50%: 0.0% - 3.50%-3.75%: 0.0% (September) 2.6% (October) - 3.75%-4.00%: 0.0% (July) 3.0% (September) 55.8% (October) - 4.00%-4.25%: 4.7% (July) 64.0% (September) 37.1% (October) - 4.25%-4.50% (current rate): 95.3% (July) 33.0% (September) 4.4% (October) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, with June employment growth exceeding expectations for the fourth consecutive month and a further decline in the unemployment rate, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach in its next interest rate decision [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with April and May's non-farm employment figures revised upward by 16,000 [1][5]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [3][8]. - The significant growth in state and local government employment was a key driver for the better-than-expected data, while private sector employment only increased by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased from 170.51 million to 173.38 million, with the number of unemployed individuals decreasing from 7.237 million to 7.1025 million [9]. - Disparities in unemployment rates were noted among different demographic groups, with the unemployment rate for African Americans rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites decreased to 3.6% [9]. Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Average hourly earnings rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3% and the previous month's 0.4%, with the annual wage growth rate at 3.7%, also lower than the revised 3.8% [11]. - The moderate wage growth may alleviate some inflationary pressures for the Federal Reserve [11]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have shifted, with the likelihood of a cut during the July 29-30 meeting dropping to near zero, while the probability for a September cut is around 75% [12]. - The market anticipates a total reduction of 50 basis points within the year, down from a prior expectation of 64 basis points [12]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase, with the Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.3%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to 4.261% [16].

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in July is 25.3% [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 7.6% [1] Group 2 - The cumulative probability of a 25 basis points rate cut by September is 69.7% [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis points rate cut by September is 22.8% [1]

美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.8% 金十数据7月1日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.8%，降息25个基点的概率为20.2%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为5.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为75.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为18.8%。 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.25%-3.50% | | | 0.0% | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 13.7% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 60.3% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 20.2% | 75.9% | 24.6% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 79.8% | 5.3% | 1.5% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 ...