Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economic Research and Trade Policy - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Insights and Arguments - The US has reduced tariffs on China to approximately 40%, down from 145%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point decrease in the effective US tariff rate, which now stands at around 14% compared to 3.5% at the beginning of the year [2][12][20] - This tariff reduction has led to an upward revision of the US GDP projections for 2025, now expected to expand by 0.6%, and a decrease in inflation forecasts due to less tariff pass-through [2][12] - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.5%, prompting a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy normalization until December [2][12] - The trade war's impact on business sentiment has been significant, with sentiment dropping into recession territory, but the anticipated recession in the US for the second half of 2025 has been removed due to the tariff détente [3][11] - Despite the positive developments, the overall global growth outlook remains weak, with recession risks still estimated at 40% for the second half of 2025 [11][17] Additional Important Content - The current US tariff rate represents a substantial tax hike equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which could lead to upward pressure on prices for imported goods [14] - The US fiscal policy is shifting towards a more stimulative approach, with a proposed net stimulus of nearly 1% of GDP for the next year, which is expected to support continued labor demand and economic expansion [14][19] - The easing of trade tensions with China does not imply a resolution of trade issues with the EU and other Asian countries, where negotiations remain contentious [11][18] - The US administration's recent actions indicate a willingness to avoid "short-term pain for long-term gain," which has positively influenced asset prices and market sentiment [12][19] - The anticipated growth drag on China due to tariffs has been reduced to -1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025 [20] - The economic integration deals with Gulf states, including significant investments and economic exchanges, are expected to enhance trade flows but have limited immediate economic impact [19][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of US trade policy changes and their effects on the broader economic landscape.

农产品早报 2025-05-20 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆震荡为主，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，提供一定支撑。周一 国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报 2860 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short-term "high-level short allocation", long-term positive outlook for positive spreads [2] - Coking coal and coke: "Weak and volatile" [2] - Rebar and wire rod: "Volatile" [2] - Glass: "Volatile" [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 "Volatile", Shanghai 50 "Rebound", CSI 500 "Upward", CSI 1000 "Upward" [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2-year "Volatile", 5-year "Volatile", 10-year "Decline" [4] - Gold and silver: "High-level volatile" [4] - Pulp: "Weak and volatile" [5] - Logs: "Bottom volatile" [5] - Oils and fats: "Volatile" [5] - Meal products: "Volatile and bearish" [5] - Live pigs: "Volatile" [7] - Rubber: "Strong and volatile" [7] - PX: "Wait-and-see" [7] - PTA: "Wait-and-see" [8] - MEG: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PR: "Wait-and-see" [8] - PF: "Narrow-range consolidation" [8] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. Coal and coke markets are mainly following the trend of finished products. Steel prices are expected to remain low and volatile in the short term. Glass prices lack upward momentum. Stock index futures are recommended for long positions, and treasury bonds are also recommended for long positions. Precious metals are expected to maintain high-level volatility. Pulp prices are expected to be weak. Log prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate. Oils and fats and meal products markets are volatile. Live pig prices are expected to remain stable. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile. PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets are recommended for a wait-and-see approach [2][4][5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply is expected to increase with the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments and the release of some mine capacities. Demand is the key factor. Although the market's expectation for steel demand has improved, the actual demand is seasonally weak. High iron ore port inventories put pressure on prices. The weakening of trade conflicts may bring opportunities for far-month short selling [2] Coal and Coke - The supply and demand of coking coal remain loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke prices have been lowered. Coke supply continues to increase, and inventories are rising overall [2] Rebar and Wire Rod - The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, and demand is expected to decline. The total inventory is still in the process of being depleted, but the impact of the rainy season may slow down or reverse the inventory depletion. Steel prices are under short-term pressure [2] Glass - Some production lines have resumed operation, and daily melting volume has fluctuated slightly. Spot prices have declined slightly, and profits have been squeezed. Inventories have increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term [2] Stock Index Futures/Options - The previous trading day's performance of major stock indices varied. Sector funds flowed in and out differently. Macroeconomic data showed mixed results. With the phased results of Sino-US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, market risk aversion has eased, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [4] Treasury Bonds - The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and market interest rates have decreased, providing support for Treasury bond prices. Long positions in Treasury bonds are recommended [4] Precious Metals - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Gold's currency, financial, and hedging attributes are affected by various factors. Short-term factors such as trade tensions and Fed policies may cause fluctuations, but gold prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility [4] Pulp - Spot market prices have shown a differentiated trend, and external market prices have declined. The profitability of the papermaking industry is low, and paper mills' inventories are increasing. Demand has entered the off-season, and pulp prices are expected to be weak [5] Logs - Downstream demand has entered the off-season, and the supply of logs is expected to decrease. Current inventories are being depleted, and prices are expected to bottom out and fluctuate [5] Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is in the seasonal growth period, and inventories have increased significantly. The supply of three major oils and fats is abundant, while consumption is in the off-season. Prices are expected to be volatile [5] Meal Products - Sino-US trade relations have eased, but the weather in the US soybean-growing areas is a key factor. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply of meal products is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [5] Live Pigs - The average slaughter weight of live pigs has increased slightly, and demand from slaughtering enterprises has remained stable. Post-festival consumption demand has decreased, but the demand for secondary fattening provides support. Prices are expected to remain stable [7] Rubber - Domestic rubber production is relatively stable, while raw material prices in Thailand have continued to rise. Demand from sample tire enterprises has recovered, and inventories are expected to decrease slightly. Market sentiment is positive, but supply and demand fundamentals still put pressure on prices. Rubber prices are expected to be strongly volatile [7] PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may affect oil prices. The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG have fluctuated, and inventories have changed. The polyester market is affected by raw material prices and production reduction plans. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for these products [7][8]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a recovery in macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting the overall base metals sector [4][16][42] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to remain attractive due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, with gold prices anticipated to rise in the long term [4][42][43] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in gold and silver mining companies, as well as in base metals like copper and aluminum, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [17][18][42] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 3.72% to $3,205.30 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 1.37% to $32.43 per ounce [22][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 617,575.37 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 1,591,307.50 ounces [24] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support gold prices, with a focus on gold resource stocks due to their low valuation levels [4][42][43] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices increased by 0.02% to $9,447.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 2.65% to $2,481.50 per ton, zinc increased by 1.43% to $2,691.50 per ton, and lead rose by 0.93% to $2,000.00 per ton [6][44] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper at 78,140.00 yuan per ton, aluminum at 20,130.00 yuan per ton, zinc at 22,500.00 yuan per ton, and lead at 16,870.00 yuan per ton [6][44] - The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and a favorable outlook for copper prices due to ongoing infrastructure investments and demand in sectors like electric vehicles [17][71] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices have remained firm due to cost increases and environmental inspections in certain regions [14] - The market for molybdenum and vanadium is stable, with steel mills beginning to procure, although price movements are limited [15][79] - The US has initiated anti-dumping investigations on metal silicon imports, which may impact market dynamics [78]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in a better-than-expected outcome, with a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs and retention of the remaining 10% [4] - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some companies reporting lower-than-expected earnings due to various operational challenges [15][16][17] Company Summaries Yuanyuan Group - For Q1 2025, Yuanyuan Group reported revenues of $202.9 million and a net profit of $7.6 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2% respectively, which was below market expectations [15] Under Armour - Under Armour's FY25 revenue was $5.2 billion, down 9% year-on-year, with an operating loss of $185 million. Adjusted operating profit was $198 million, with a net loss of $201 million [16] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to decline by 4% to 5% compared to the same period in FY25, although gross margins are projected to improve [16] On - On reported a record Q1 sales of 727 million Swiss Francs, a 43% increase year-on-year, driven by a successful multi-channel strategy [17] - The company raised its full-year sales forecast for 2025, expecting at least a 28% increase, with gross margins projected between 60.0% and 60.5% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.28% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52% [19] - The overall retail sales in China for the first four months of 2025 grew by 4.1%, with online retail sales increasing by 11.5% [23] Material Data - As of May 16, 2025, the China Cotton 3128B Index was 14,577 RMB/ton, with a year-to-date decline of 0.9% [34][9] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [45]

东海期货 铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 华联期货 前期铁矿2509合约空单注意减仓 新世纪期货：稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的 改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关 键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低 的明确窗口期，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁 矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 东海期货：铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 5月15日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至738.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合 约报735.5元，涨幅1.03%。 铁矿石期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 钢厂利润可观，铁水产量短期处于高位，后续铁水产量回落是大概率事件，但对于回落路径，市场存在 较大分歧。供应方面，铁矿石发货量环比回落21.5万吨，到港量环比回落95.1万吨 ...

【导读】周三股票ETF资金净流出13亿元 数据显示，资金净流入前20大股票ETF中，中证A500ETF达到5只，中证500ETF、科创类宽基ETF各占2只，军工、机器人、半导体芯片等行业主题ETF均 有2只。从5日角度观测，近期资金流入科创50指数超36亿元，流入中证全指半导体超11亿元。 头部基金公司中，5月14日，易方达基金最新规模6506.4亿元，证券保险ETF净流入1.8亿元，机器人ETF易方达净流入0.8亿元，A500ETF易方达净流入0.5 亿元，恒生红利低波ETF、沪深300ETF易方达、科创板50ETF等均实现资金净流入。 5月14日（本周三），A股三大指数集体上涨，上证指数再次站上3400点，两市成交1.32万亿元。 部分资金选择"落袋为安"。股票ETF当日资金净流出13亿元，沪深300、中证500、中证A500等宽基ETF资金净流入靠前，券商、港股科技互联网等行业主 题ETF净流出较多。 4月下旬以来，股票ETF已连续超10个交易日呈现资金净流出，合计"失血"超500亿元。其中，本周前三个交易日合计净流出近250亿元。 股票ETF资金净流出13亿元 数据显示，截至5月14日，全市场股票ET ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/08 62.8 555 778 4615 6505 93.88 223.0 328 -19 85.8 72.5 97814 115 0.50 2025/0 5/09 63.9 569 785 4715 6580 100.54 216.0 393 -42 86.9 72.5 91568 145 0.65 2025/0 5/12 65.0 590 870 4840 6675 87.60 280.0 324 -87 86.9 72.5 88754 180 1.15 2025/0 5/13 66.6 576 846 4935 6840 87.60 270.0 298 -29 86.9 72.5 85172 200 0.50 2025/0 5/14 66.1 590 870 5095 7000 87.60 280.0 324 -59 86 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid due to the easing of the trade war, and consider waiting for opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term. For silver, it is suggested to sell high on rebounds or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For aluminum, the weakening dollar supports metal prices, and after the Sino - US tariff agreement, the export performance of aluminum downstream products may improve. The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - For alumina, the macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the previous production cuts and maintenance of alumina enterprises have led to continuous inventory reduction, which supports the short - term price increase. However, the decline in imported ore costs and the release of new production capacity may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - For industrial silicon, although the price rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment, the fundamentals remain unchanged. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward drive is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term price may fluctuate or rebound slightly, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long term. It is recommended to hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - For polysilicon, it is advisable to take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. - For steel products, it is recommended to hold short positions in rebar, hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October. For iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract. For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - For agricultural products, for soybeans, the US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game; domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term. For corn, the spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate. For sugar, it may rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future. For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term. For eggs and hogs, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for LLDPE and PP, they may fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted at high prices in the long term. For PVC, it is recommended to close short positions. For rubber, it is recommended to short in the medium term. For glass, it is recommended to gradually close short positions. For crude oil, it is advisable to short at high prices. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong, and the monthly spread is in a positive spread. For soda ash, it is recommended to gradually close short positions [8][9][10]. - For shipping, the short - term European container shipping (EC) may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures - **Gold Market** - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices weakened, and the international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3,200 per ounce [1]. - News: Trump publicly stated that he does not plan to fire Powell but still pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US government officials will not seek dollar depreciation in trade agreements [1]. - Economic data: China's social financing scale increment in the first four months totaled 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% year - on - year and core CPI at 2.8% year - on - year [1]. - Inventory data: Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5 tons to 1,221 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. The London gold inventory in April increased slightly. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 919 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38 tons [1]. - Operation suggestions: Avoid in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long in the medium and long term; sell silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 2.2 Basic Metals - **Aluminum** - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 1.48% to 20,240 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 125 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $2,520.5 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The starting rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina** - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract increased by 3.77% to 2,945 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 4 yuan per ton. On May 14, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $370.04 per ton, up about $11 per ton from the 12th [3]. - Fundamentals: The production capacity decreased due to phased maintenance and production cuts of alumina plants. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: The price may rise in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market performance: The 2506 contract closed at 8,490 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: In the supply side, the resumption of production in Sichuan was obvious in the short term, and Yunnan had production cuts. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries was limited [3]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan per ton, up 3.0% from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was less than expected. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices in the long term, hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market performance: The PS2506 contract closed at 38,420 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. The warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 40 [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in May is expected to be flat or slightly lower than in April, and the downstream silicon wafer factories have limited procurement [3]. - Operation suggestions: Take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. 2.3 Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated strongly and closed at 3,119 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials increased, and the production increased. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced [4]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions. Hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October [4][5]. - **Iron Ore** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated strongly and closed at 737.5 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [5]. - Trading strategy: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. Wait and see for arbitrage [5]. - **Coking Coal** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal fluctuated strongly and closed at 888.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [5]. 2.4 Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal** - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term, trading on the expectation of US biodiesel policy [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and neutral in the long - term for US new - crop soybeans. The demand was seasonally weak [6]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term [6]. - **Corn** - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract rebounded slightly, and the deep - processing corn prices rose and fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand was tightening. The trade - end shipments increased in the short term, and the new wheat listing supplemented part of the demand [6]. - Trading strategy: The spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Sugar** - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,888 yuan per ton, down 0.29%. The basis was 8 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after tax was 37 yuan per ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Raw sugar rebounded under the influence of macro and crude oil. In May, China entered the pure sales period, and the inventory was low year - on - year [6]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton** - Market performance: Overnight, the US cotton price continued to fall, and the international oil price weakened. The Indian cotton import in February decreased by 16.7% month - on - month and increased by 394.2% year - on - year. The Vietnamese cotton import in April increased by 11.1% month - on - month and 28.0% year - on - year. The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated upward [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see and adopt the range - trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil** - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in the seasonal growth period, and the export demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term [7]. - **Eggs** - Market performance: The 2506 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The cost supported the price [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Hogs** - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply will continue to increase, and the pig price may decline resistantly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Apples** - Market performance: The main contract closed at 7,723 yuan per ton, down 0.27%. The apple prices in Shandong were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather affected the apple setting in the main producing areas, and the low inventory and expected production reduction supported the price. The consumption problem needs attention [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [7]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise. The spot price in North China was 7,360 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was in the off - season for agricultural films [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **PVC** - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 5,028 yuan, up 2.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions [9]. - **Rubber** - Market performance: The RU2509 contract increased by 1.6% and closed at 15,235 yuan per ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The market sentiment was bullish, and the supply was expected to increase [9]. - Trading strategy: Short in the medium term and pay attention to the pressure level around 15,500 - 15,600 yuan [9]. - **Glass** - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,037 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory accumulated. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions [9]. - **PP** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,250 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand was expected to improve after the Sino - US tariff relaxation [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **Crude Oil** - Market performance: The oil price fell due to unexpected inventory accumulation and the possible Iran - US agreement [10]. - Fundamentals: The demand expectation increased slightly, and the supply pressure was large [10]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices, and the short - term trading range is Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - Market performance: The main contract rose sharply. The spot price in East China was 8,050 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was normal, and the styrene inventory was low. The downstream demand was expected to improve [10]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and adopt the positive - spread strategy for monthly spreads [10]. - **Soda Ash** - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,338 yuan, up 1.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass increased [10]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and consider selling out - of - the - money call options at 1,650 [10]. 2.6 Shipping - **European Container Shipping** - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit, and the shipowners announced a price increase for the European line on June 1 [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand on the US line recovered, but the European line demand was still moderate. The supply on the US line will be adjusted, and large ships on the European line are still being launched [11]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term. Be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-15） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价867，基差130；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价840，基差103，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡思路 I2509：730-750区间 交易 利多： 铁矿石港口现货价格 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 ...