研究中心能化团队 2025/05/15 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 5/08 62.8 555 778 4615 6505 93.88 223.0 328 -19 85.8 72.5 97814 115 0.50 2025/0 5/09 63.9 569 785 4715 6580 100.54 216.0 393 -42 86.9 72.5 91568 145 0.65 2025/0 5/12 65.0 590 870 4840 6675 87.60 280.0 324 -87 86.9 72.5 88754 180 1.15 2025/0 5/13 66.6 576 846 4935 6840 87.60 270.0 298 -29 86.9 72.5 85172 200 0.50 2025/0 5/14 66.1 590 870 5095 7000 87.60 280.0 324 -59 86 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. In the short term, it is recommended to avoid due to the easing of the trade war, and consider waiting for opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term. For silver, it is suggested to sell high on rebounds or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For aluminum, the weakening dollar supports metal prices, and after the Sino - US tariff agreement, the export performance of aluminum downstream products may improve. The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - For alumina, the macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the previous production cuts and maintenance of alumina enterprises have led to continuous inventory reduction, which supports the short - term price increase. However, the decline in imported ore costs and the release of new production capacity may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - For industrial silicon, although the price rose due to the warming of the commodity market sentiment, the fundamentals remain unchanged. The weekly output has declined to a new low after the festival, and the downward drive is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term price may fluctuate or rebound slightly, and it is advisable to short at high prices in the long term. It is recommended to hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - For polysilicon, it is advisable to take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. - For steel products, it is recommended to hold short positions in rebar, hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October. For iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract. For coking coal, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - For agricultural products, for soybeans, the US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game; domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term. For corn, the spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate. For sugar, it may rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future. For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see. For palm oil, it may rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term. For eggs and hogs, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate. For apples, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, for LLDPE and PP, they may fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted at high prices in the long term. For PVC, it is recommended to close short positions. For rubber, it is recommended to short in the medium term. For glass, it is recommended to gradually close short positions. For crude oil, it is advisable to short at high prices. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong, and the monthly spread is in a positive spread. For soda ash, it is recommended to gradually close short positions [8][9][10]. - For shipping, the short - term European container shipping (EC) may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures - **Gold Market** - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices weakened, and the international gold price denominated in London gold fell below $3,200 per ounce [1]. - News: Trump publicly stated that he does not plan to fire Powell but still pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US government officials will not seek dollar depreciation in trade agreements [1]. - Economic data: China's social financing scale increment in the first four months totaled 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. US inflation cooled in April, with CPI at 2.3% year - on - year and core CPI at 2.8% year - on - year [1]. - Inventory data: Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5 tons to 1,221 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. The London gold inventory in April increased slightly. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12 tons to 919 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 38 tons [1]. - Operation suggestions: Avoid in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long in the medium and long term; sell silver on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 2.2 Basic Metals - **Aluminum** - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 1.48% to 20,240 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 125 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $2,520.5 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The starting rate of aluminum products increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina** - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract increased by 3.77% to 2,945 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 4 yuan per ton. On May 14, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $370.04 per ton, up about $11 per ton from the 12th [3]. - Fundamentals: The production capacity decreased due to phased maintenance and production cuts of alumina plants. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: The price may rise in the short term, but the rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see or sell high [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market performance: The 2506 contract closed at 8,490 yuan, up 260 yuan from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: In the supply side, the resumption of production in Sichuan was obvious in the short term, and Yunnan had production cuts. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries was limited [3]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan per ton, up 3.0% from the previous day [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was less than expected. The social inventory decreased slightly last week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices in the long term, hold short positions or take short - term profits [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market performance: The PS2506 contract closed at 38,420 yuan per ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. The warehouse receipts increased by 20 to 40 [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in May is expected to be flat or slightly lower than in April, and the downstream silicon wafer factories have limited procurement [3]. - Operation suggestions: Take profits on long positions and pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price rises to around 40,000 [3]. 2.3 Black Industry - **Rebar** - Market performance: The main 2510 contract of rebar fluctuated strongly and closed at 3,119 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials increased, and the production increased. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced [4]. - Trading strategy: Hold short positions. Hold short positions in the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar and try the reverse spread of hot - rolled coils in July/October [4][5]. - **Iron Ore** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated strongly and closed at 737.5 yuan per ton, up 12 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The supply and demand were neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [5]. - Trading strategy: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. Wait and see for arbitrage [5]. - **Coking Coal** - Market performance: The main 2509 contract of coking coal fluctuated strongly and closed at 888.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan per ton from the previous night session [5]. - Fundamentals: The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, and the futures was at a premium [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [5]. 2.4 Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal** - Market performance: The CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term, trading on the expectation of US biodiesel policy [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term in South America and neutral in the long - term for US new - crop soybeans. The demand was seasonally weak [6]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans may rebound in the short term, and the medium - term drive lies in the yield game. Domestic soybeans are weak in the short term and may follow the international market to fluctuate in the medium term [6]. - **Corn** - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract rebounded slightly, and the deep - processing corn prices rose and fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand was tightening. The trade - end shipments increased in the short term, and the new wheat listing supplemented part of the demand [6]. - Trading strategy: The spot is weak, and the futures price may fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Sugar** - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,888 yuan per ton, down 0.29%. The basis was 8 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after tax was 37 yuan per ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Raw sugar rebounded under the influence of macro and crude oil. In May, China entered the pure sales period, and the inventory was low year - on - year [6]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton** - Market performance: Overnight, the US cotton price continued to fall, and the international oil price weakened. The Indian cotton import in February decreased by 16.7% month - on - month and increased by 394.2% year - on - year. The Vietnamese cotton import in April increased by 11.1% month - on - month and 28.0% year - on - year. The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated upward [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see and adopt the range - trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil** - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was in the seasonal growth period, and the export demand improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Rebound in the short term and be in a weak seasonal stage in the medium term [7]. - **Eggs** - Market performance: The 2506 contract of eggs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The cost supported the price [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Hogs** - Market performance: The 2509 contract of hogs rebounded, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply will continue to increase, and the pig price may decline resistantly [7]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Apples** - Market performance: The main contract closed at 7,723 yuan per ton, down 0.27%. The apple prices in Shandong were stable [7]. - Fundamentals: Extreme weather affected the apple setting in the main producing areas, and the low inventory and expected production reduction supported the price. The consumption problem needs attention [7]. - Operation suggestions: Wait and see [7]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise. The spot price in North China was 7,360 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased, and the import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was in the off - season for agricultural films [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **PVC** - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 5,028 yuan, up 2.3% [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions [9]. - **Rubber** - Market performance: The RU2509 contract increased by 1.6% and closed at 15,235 yuan per ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The market sentiment was bullish, and the supply was expected to increase [9]. - Trading strategy: Short in the medium term and pay attention to the pressure level around 15,500 - 15,600 yuan [9]. - **Glass** - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,037 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply was large, and the inventory accumulated. The demand was expected to improve [9]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions [9]. - **PP** - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly. The spot price in East China was 7,250 yuan per ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased, and the demand was expected to improve after the Sino - US tariff relaxation [9]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term [9]. - **Crude Oil** - Market performance: The oil price fell due to unexpected inventory accumulation and the possible Iran - US agreement [10]. - Fundamentals: The demand expectation increased slightly, and the supply pressure was large [10]. - Trading strategy: Short at high prices, and the short - term trading range is Brent $60 - 70 per barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - Market performance: The main contract rose sharply. The spot price in East China was 8,050 yuan per ton, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was normal, and the styrene inventory was low. The downstream demand was expected to improve [10]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term and adopt the positive - spread strategy for monthly spreads [10]. - **Soda Ash** - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,338 yuan, up 1.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass increased [10]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and consider selling out - of - the - money call options at 1,650 [10]. 2.6 Shipping - **European Container Shipping** - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract hit the daily limit, and the shipowners announced a price increase for the European line on June 1 [11]. - Fundamentals: The demand on the US line recovered, but the European line demand was still moderate. The supply on the US line will be adjusted, and large ships on the European line are still being launched [11]. - Trading strategy: Fluctuate strongly in the short term. Be cautious when chasing high in the 06 contract and try the 8 - 10 positive spread [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-15） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价867，基差130；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价840，基差103，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡思路 I2509：730-750区间 交易 利多： 铁矿石港口现货价格 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with expected lower production, stable exports and domestic consumption. However, short - term supply of US soybeans and domestic soybeans is expected to be large, and the prices are likely to be volatile in the short term, requiring additional stimuli for further upward movement [2][5]. - For palm oil, the significant increase in production and inventory in April puts downward pressure on prices in the medium - term. But the rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies provide some support. In the short term, prices may be volatile or slightly bullish due to the upcoming RVO rule [6][9]. - For sugar, the supply shortage situation is expected to turn into a slight surplus in the 2025/26 season. The price of raw sugar may hit a new low in the second and third quarters, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to weaken later [10][11]. - For cotton, the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term prices, and future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [13][14]. - For eggs, the supply pressure is large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [16][17]. - For pigs, the spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans/Meadow - **Important Information**: Overnight US soybeans rose due to the easing of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimated a slight reduction in the new US soybean production in the 25/26 season, stable crushing volume, a slight decline in exports, and a slight reduction in inventory. The expected RVO plan from the EPA in two weeks also supports US soybeans. The opening rate of domestic soybean oil mills increased, leading to a slight decline in the domestic soybean meal spot price. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - term, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to have large supplies but low valuations, so they are likely to be volatile. Further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli from biodiesel and production [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: The MPOB report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in April rose to 1.86 million tons. From May 1 - 5, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased significantly. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month. The rise in crude oil and expected US soybean oil policies support the price, but if the palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, the price will be under pressure. The industry association's request to greatly increase RVO will boost the valuation of US soybean oil [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production will put downward pressure on oil prices in the medium - term. However, the upcoming RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short term, so the prices may be volatile or slightly bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Tuesday. The analysis agency Green Pool estimated a slight surplus of 1.15 million tons in the global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season, with an expected 5.3% increase in production and a 0.95% increase in consumption [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil will ease the supply shortage. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but it is likely to weaken later [11]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell on Tuesday. The USDA monthly report was bearish for US cotton but showed a 710,000 - ton reduction in global production, mainly from China and Australia. As of May 11, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations will boost short - term cotton prices. The domestic cotton spinning industry has entered the off - season, with weak consumption and low imports, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on marginal changes in inventory [14]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Most egg prices in the country rose, and the downstream sales were mostly stable. Most traders' confidence in the future market declined [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The post - holiday inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure was large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rebounds [17]. Pigs - **Important Information**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable, with some areas showing a weak trend. The market sales were average, and there was a game between supply and demand [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has limited short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has a limited downward space. It is advisable to short on short - term rebounds caused by sentiment [20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价858，基差139；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价830，基差112，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，价格难以上行，震荡思路 I2509：710-730震荡 利多： 利空： 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿石期现基差 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年05月13日 【原油】 【锌】 中美贸易谈判结果超预期,市场风险情绪明显好转,沪锌低位反弹。就具体关税税率而言,国内商 品转口贸易利润仍大于直接对美出口,实际对消费端的提振预计有限。同时美国锌精矿进口至国内 的关税压力大减,成本端支撑转弱。基本面仍显供强需弱,延续反弹空配看法。 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明大超预期,本次关税降级对中美原油及油品贸易流并无直接影响，而 是进一步延续了上周美英贸易协议以来的贸易战阶段性缓和、经济衰退担忧修复主题。需求现实层 面同样具有韧性,临近北美夏季出行旺季,美国汽油表需相对坚挺,加之尼日利亚丹格特炼厂RFCC 装置检修的供应抗动，全球轻质馏分产品库存屡创新低,海外汽油裂解、综合炼化利润迎来修复。 但考虑到OPEC+已进入快速增产周期,近期美伊核谈判、俄乌和谈亦均有乐观信号释放,她练缓和 大背景下供应制裁风险弱化,油价反弹空间亦不过分乐观,布伦特关注70美元/桶压力位、S0关注 510元/桶压力位。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属延续回落。近期贸易谈判和地缘纷争交织,昨日中美发布联合声明降低对等关税,市场 反应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Trade war easing leads to a significant drop in gold prices and a fall in the gold - silver ratio below 100. The logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, with short - term avoidance recommended and mid - to long - term opportunities for building long positions [1]. - For basic metals, copper is recommended for buying on dips; aluminum may be bullish in the short - term, and buying on dips is advised; alumina is recommended for shorting on rallies; zinc is expected to be weak in the medium - term; lead is likely to trade in a range with a slightly higher bottom; industrial silicon suggests waiting and watching; and tin is recommended for buying on dips [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, for steel, hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions; for iron ore, try short positions in the 2509 contract; and for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and watch [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are expected to be volatile, corn futures prices will consolidate, sugar may be bullish in the short - term and bearish later, cotton suggests waiting and watching, palm oil should focus on relevant reports and policies, eggs and pork prices are expected to be weak, and apples suggest waiting and watching [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; rubber suggests waiting and watching in the short - term and shorting in the medium - term; and crude oil is recommended for shorting on rallies [8][9]. - In the shipping industry, the short - term outlook for European line container shipping is bullish, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract [10][11]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Overnight, precious metal prices dropped significantly due to trade war easing. The gold - silver ratio fell below 100 [1]. - **News**: China and the US cancelled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and Goldman Sachs postponed the expected rate - cut time to December [1]. - **Economic Data**: The US government's April fiscal budget surplus increased by 23% year - on - year to $258.4 billion, and customs tariff revenue reached a record high of $16 billion [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs had outflows. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 1217 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory remained at 15 tons. London's April gold inventory increased slightly. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9 tons to 924 tons, and India's March silver imports decreased to about 180 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid in the short - term due to trade war easing, and consider building long positions in the mid - to long - term. For silver, short on rallies or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday, but were constrained by the strong US dollar index [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and the back structure weakened [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.66% yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly as smelters maintained high - load production, and demand improved as the operating rate of aluminum products increased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The export of aluminum products may improve, and aluminum prices may be bullish in the short - term. Buy on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2509 contract rose 0.57% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased as refineries carried out maintenance and production cuts, while demand increased as electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price rebounded in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand surplus remains. Short on rallies [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the 2506 contract rose 1.35% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure remains as new smelter capacity increases and imports rise. Consumption decreased in May due to tariff impacts and weak domestic demand [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 1.13% yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply may tighten as secondary lead production becomes unprofitable and primary lead plants plan maintenance. Consumption is weak due to the off - season and export difficulties [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price bottom may rise slightly, but it will mainly trade in a range [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract rose 115 yuan yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. Sichuan's production recovered, and Yunnan reduced production. Demand from the polysilicon and organosilicon industries is limited [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch as the weekly production has declined [2]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract rose 1020 yuan yesterday due to short - covering [2][3]. - **Marginal Changes**: The US postponed a 24% tariff on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, and the comprehensive tariff rate for power batteries and energy - storage batteries decreased. The impact on lithium demand is controllable [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is expected to be more balanced in May. Supply decreased slightly, and demand from the domestic new energy vehicle market was lower than expected. Inventory decreased slightly last week [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Hold short positions or take short - term profits [2][3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The PS2506 contract rose 620 yuan yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to be flat or slightly lower in May. Demand from downstream wafer factories is limited [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions as the number of registered warehouse receipts is much smaller than the open interest. Pay attention to the willingness of enterprises to deliver when the price reaches 40,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated slightly higher yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The reduction of tariffs between China and the US boosted the consumer electronics industry, which is positive for tin prices. Domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and London's inventory increased [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The 2510 contract of rebar rose 65 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is seasonal. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and relevant arbitrage positions. The reference range for RB10 is 3040 - 3110 yuan [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of iron ore rose 22.5 yuan yesterday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand remained strong. However, the profit of steel mills narrowed, and the medium - term supply surplus remains. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short positions in the 2509 contract. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 730 yuan [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of coking coal rose 3 yuan yesterday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore production increased slightly, and the profit of steel mills narrowed. The first round of price increases was implemented, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose. The impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation has been mostly digested [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch. The reference range for JM09 is 850 - 900 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to positive USDA reports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is loose in the near - term in South America and tight in the long - term in the US. Demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybeans will follow the international market after stabilizing. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2507 contract of corn corrected, and the price of deep - processed corn fell in North China and remained stable in Northeast China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is tightening this year. The transfer of grain ownership to channels increases their bargaining power. Substitute imports are expected to decrease, but short - term spot sentiment may cool down [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices will consolidate due to falling spot prices and eased trade tensions [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose 0.19% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar rebounded due to macro and crude oil factors. The price is supported at 17 cents/lb. China's sugar market is in the pure sales period, and inventory is low. The price trend will follow raw sugar [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term and bearish later. Pay attention to the time of concentrated imports [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Overnight, US cotton prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton prices rose due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's April cotton exports were stable compared to March and decreased by 1% year - on - year. China's April textile and clothing exports increased. The expected production of Xinjiang cotton in the 25/26 season may increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch, and use a range - trading strategy [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian market was closed yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased seasonally in the producing areas, and exports improved [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is in a seasonally weak stage. Pay attention to the MPOB report today and production and biodiesel policies later [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2506 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, and demand is weak due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather and low vegetable prices. Cost provides some support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork fluctuated slightly, and the spot price fell slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply will continue to increase, and the impact of secondary fattening on prices will weaken. Demand is in the off - season, and costs are low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to decline with resistance. Pay attention to enterprise sales rhythms and secondary fattening trends [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract of apples rose 0.32% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Extreme weather may affect apple production in the new season, especially in Shaanxi. Low inventory and expected production reduction support prices, but consumption needs attention [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and watch [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis weakened, and the import window closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as new plants were put into operation and existing plants had more unexpected maintenance. Demand is in the off - season for agricultural films, but there may be a rush to export [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract rose 2.18% on Monday [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai raw material prices were not reported due to the Buddha's Birthday festival. Social inventory increased slightly [9]. - **Market Logic**: Positive signals from Sino - US negotiations boosted the market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term but with limited upside. Wait and watch in the short - term and short in the medium - term [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract rebounded slightly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The basis strengthened, the import window closed, and the export window opened [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased as some plants resumed production and new plants were put into operation. Demand from the downstream home appliance and automobile industries is mixed, and there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Short on rallies for far - month contracts [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose yesterday due to positive Sino - US tariff negotiation results, but the increase was limited due to supply pressure [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year even if demand is adjusted upwards [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading range is adjusted to $60 - 70 per barrel for Brent. Short on rallies [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose significantly yesterday due to positive news from Sino - US tariff negotiations. The import window closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are expected to increase slightly in May. Demand from downstream industries is weak, but there may be a rush to export [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Slightly bullish in the short - term. Do positive arbitrage on the monthly spread [9]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract hit the daily limit after the Geneva meeting [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand improved after tariff negotiations, but European line cargo volume was still moderate. Supply will be adjusted on the US line, and large European line ships are still being launched [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high prices in the 06 contract. Do 8 - 10 positive arbitrage [10][11].

农产品早报 2025-05-13 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 隔夜美豆收涨，贸易战缓和情绪带动，USDA 月报预估 25/26 年度美豆新作产量同比小幅减产，压榨量 持平，出口小幅下降，最终库存同比小幅去库，报告中性略利多，传两周内 EPA 将公布 RVO 方案。周 一国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东报 3000 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。本周油厂预计压榨大豆 190.85 万吨，上周压榨 184.6 万吨。国 内未来三个月豆粕及大豆累库趋势较强。 2、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 5 月 1-5 日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加 61.58%，出 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/13 P T A 日期 原油 2025/0 5/06 2025/0 5/07 2025/0 5/08 | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | 790 | 685 | 5555 | 5300 | 870 | | 7130 | 7315 | 8375 | | 2025/05/07 | 790 | 700 | 5650 | 5300 | 880 | | 7240 | 7415 | 8350 | | 2025/05/08 | 785 | 693 | 5600 | 5330 | 865 | | 7140 | 7315 | 8350 | | 2025/05/09 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5350 | 865 | | 7135 | 7340 | 8350 | | 2025/05/12 | 780 | 699 | 5650 | 5550 | 865 | | 73 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Dow Jones rising over 1100 points and both Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching two-month highs, driven by positive signals from trade talks and expectations of easing trade tensions [3] - Major tech companies saw substantial gains, with Amazon up over 8%, and Meta, Apple, and Tesla all increasing by more than 6%, indicating strong market sentiment [3] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged by 5.4%, with notable increases in stocks like WeRide (up 27%), XPeng, Bilibili, and JD.com, reflecting improved market confidence due to easing trade tensions and expectations of economic recovery in China [3] - The performance of electric vehicle companies, particularly XPeng and Li Auto, is bolstered by strong sales data and supportive policies, attracting significant investment [3] International Developments - The US-Ukraine mineral agreement, while appearing to focus on reconstruction, is seen as a strategic move by the US to gain access to Ukraine's rare earth and lithium resources, potentially altering global supply dynamics [4] - Chinese rare earth companies may face short-term price pressures, but China's advantages in processing technology and supportive policies could present long-term opportunities [4] Tax Policy Implications - The potential extension of previous tax cuts under Trump's new tax proposal could positively impact US stock market earnings expectations in the short term, although it may also lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures in the long run [5] Commodity Market Dynamics - Oil prices rose by 1.5% due to improved supply-demand expectations linked to global economic recovery, though volatility remains a concern due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production policies [5] - Gold prices fell by 2.7%, nearing $3200, influenced by a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, although gold retains long-term investment value amid global economic uncertainties [5] Currency and Investment Strategy - Offshore RMB depreciated by 397 points, primarily due to a stronger dollar and capital flow impacts, but the depreciation space is considered limited given improving economic fundamentals in China [6] - For long-term investors, US tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia, along with quality Chinese stocks such as XPeng, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba, are recommended for their growth potential amid improving fundamentals and policy support [6]