投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，全天小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 15756 亿元，较上日缩量 475 亿元。消息面上，统计局公布了 6 月制造业 PMI 数据，为 49.7，上月为 49.5，其中新订单指数回升 至扩张区间，制造业 PMI 表现边际向好趋势。近期股市风险偏好回升，主要原因在于政策面托底需求 以及增量资金入市的预期不断升温，加上外部风险因素短期内趋于缓和，大金融与 AI 科技板块成为 市场主线。目前沪深两市成交金额达到 1.5 万亿元的量级，市场情绪偏向积极乐观。总的来说，短期 内股指震荡偏强为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies and regulations aim to enhance the legal framework and regulatory environment of China's capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong supervision, and promoting high-quality development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Framework - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a coordinated investment and financing capital market, highlighting the importance of risk prevention and regulatory strength [1]. - The new "National Nine Articles" require a focus on strong regulation and risk prevention to promote high-quality development in the capital market [1][2]. - Recent measures have been introduced to support the long-term development of technology companies, with over 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market being tech firms [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Investor Confidence - The introduction of guidelines to encourage long-term capital investment aims to create a stable market environment, addressing the historical volatility of the capital market [3]. - The implementation of policies such as the "Guidance on Promoting Long-term Capital Investment" and the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Index Investment" is designed to enhance market stability [3]. - Regulatory measures are being strengthened to support investor returns through dividends and share buybacks, fostering confidence among retail investors [3]. Group 3: Corporate Governance and Compliance - The new regulations focus on improving the share reduction rules for major shareholders to enhance corporate governance and protect investor interests [4]. - Stricter entry requirements for public offerings and enhanced responsibilities for intermediaries are being enforced to ensure market integrity [4]. - The introduction of a comprehensive system for monitoring and penalizing misconduct, including insider trading and market manipulation, is crucial for maintaining market fairness [5]. Group 4: Legal Enforcement and Investor Protection - The new "National Nine Articles" propose a multi-faceted approach to increase accountability for securities violations, including administrative, civil, and criminal penalties [5]. - Collaborative efforts between judicial and regulatory bodies aim to improve the efficiency of legal processes related to securities violations [5][9]. - Innovative dispute resolution mechanisms, such as judicial mediation and arbitration, are being promoted to enhance investor protection and resolve conflicts effectively [9]. Group 5: Future Directions and Challenges - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period will focus on addressing persistent issues in the capital market, such as shareholder misconduct and regulatory enforcement [7]. - There is a need for continuous improvement of laws and regulations, particularly in the areas of derivative trading and cross-market supervision [8]. - The promotion of a culture of compliance and investor education is essential to mitigate risks associated with market manipulation and fraud [8].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of new private fund managers, particularly insurance-related private equity and securities investment funds, indicates a growing trend of long-term capital entering the market, contributing to the steady growth of private fund scale in China [1][2][5]. Group 1: New Private Fund Managers - Three new private fund managers were registered last week, including two private equity and venture capital managers and one private securities investment manager [1]. - The newly registered private securities investment manager, Taibao Zhiyuan (Shanghai) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd., was established on May 21, 2025, and completed its registration within about one month [2]. - Taibao Zhiyuan aims for a target scale of 20 billion yuan for its first private securities investment fund, responding to national calls for expanding insurance institutions' private fund establishment [2]. Group 2: Insurance-Related Private Funds - Insurance-related private funds have been increasingly active this year, with significant long-term capital entering the market [3]. - Xinhua Insurance plans to invest up to 15 billion yuan in a private fund initiated by Guofeng Xinghua, with a total fund size of 22.5 billion yuan [3]. - The fund will focus on large listed companies that meet specific governance and operational criteria, aiming for stable dividend returns through a long-term investment approach [3]. Group 3: Private Fund Scale Growth - As of the end of May 2025, the total scale of private funds in China reached 20.27 trillion yuan, with 19,832 registered private fund managers [5]. - The number of private securities investment funds stood at 83,829, with a total scale of 5.54 trillion yuan [6]. - In May 2025, 1,219 new private funds were registered, with a total new scale of 607.26 billion yuan [6].

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 金种子酒本周下跌4.18%，迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒周跌幅均超2.5%，加之股价微微下跌的口子窖——本 周，在白酒指数小幅下挫的背景下，四大徽酒企业股价出现全线下跌。 从本周白酒企业整体走势来看，徽酒企业表现相对低迷。在消费场景萎缩、消费需求不足以及白酒企业 纷纷去库存控价的背景下，徽酒品牌在省外市场的渗透率较低、品牌影响力不足的缺陷就暴露出来。 《每日经济新闻·将进酒》记者注意到，根据2025年一季报，徽酒企业省外收入占比均较低。比如口子 窖，其一季度安徽省外营收占比仅11.13%，迎驾贡酒和金种子酒同期省外营收占比也均未超过17%。 徽酒"老大"古井贡酒虽然持续推进全国化战略，但省外市场仍处于投入阶段，短期内难以带来显著增 长，加之省内竞争格局日益激烈，其他徽酒品牌正在加速抢占市场份额，经营正面临"内外交困"。 徽酒"老二"迎驾贡酒2025年一季度则遭遇省内和省外收入双重下滑。一方面，古井贡酒对其压制增强； 另一方面，省外市场拓展面临较大阻力，难以形成稳定的增长来源。 ETF资金入市或将托底白酒估值 在经历此前一周大幅反弹后，本周白酒指数小幅震荡整理。截至6月27日收盘，WI ...

Group 1 - The second batch of insurance fund long-term investment pilot projects has officially commenced, with Taikang Asset being the first institution to announce its investment [1] - Taikang Stable Growth Fund, established by Taikang Asset, has a total approved amount of 12 billion yuan for long-term investments, aimed at optimizing asset-liability matching and enhancing capital market stability [2][3] - The investment strategy focuses on three main areas: high-dividend assets, industrial upgrade dividends, and counter-cyclical investment, promoting a long-term value investment approach [3] Group 2 - The total amount for the second and third batches of pilot projects has reached 222 billion yuan, with multiple insurance companies actively participating [4] - The long-term investment pilot is expected to alleviate profit volatility for insurance companies and enhance equity investments, contributing to a stable interaction between insurance funds and capital markets [4]

银河研究 金融期货研发报告 金融期货年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 稳中有进 开启慢牛 ——股指期货 2025 年中策略报告 报告摘要： 2025 上半年市场两次经受住了考验，分别在政策预期、资金支撑下实现探底反弹，形 成快跌慢涨的慢牛走势，底部不断抬高。 一行一局一会两度联合新闻发布会，坚强有力的表态表明管理层稳定股市的信心和决 心，下半年政策环境持续稳定，股指也将表现稳定。 市场利率不断下行，理财资金不断转向高股息资产为股市营造良好的市场环境，推动中 长期资金入市的政策指向使保险资金股票投资不断提速，汇金等央企增持又使市场增添信 心，资金面整体稳中有增。 宏观经济数据和上市公司业绩同样保持平稳，进而使估值下有支撑，股指慢牛表现即有 基本面又有资金面的助力，预计下半年将继续震荡上行。 股指期货成交持仓略有增长，受多方因素影响贴水有所加大，为期指多头带来较好的投 资机会，在风险合理控制的情况下，可能为投资者取得超额收益。 风险因素：国内经济增长不及预期，地缘政治因素 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 :sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant growth and performance of enterprise annuity funds in China, with a focus on long-term investment strategies and the shift to a three-year cumulative performance assessment [1][2][3] Group 2 - As of the end of Q1 2025, there are 168,200 enterprises with enterprise annuities, covering 32.91 million employees, with total fund accumulation reaching 3.73 trillion yuan and net investment assets at 3.70 trillion yuan [1] - The three-year cumulative return for enterprise annuity funds is reported at 7.46%, with an annualized average of 2.43% [4] - The adjustment in performance assessment to a three-year cumulative basis aligns with the guidelines for promoting long-term capital market investments, aiming to enhance the value investment approach and improve long-term returns [1][2][3] Group 3 - The investment management landscape includes 22 institutions managing 5,713 annuity portfolios, with total assets amounting to 3.67 trillion yuan [4] - Fixed income assets account for 529.30 billion yuan with a three-year cumulative return of 10.54%, while equity-related assets total 3.17 trillion yuan with a return of 7.06% [4] - The average scale of individual portfolios has shown steady growth, increasing from 502 million yuan in Q1 2022 to 628 million yuan by Q1 2025 [4] Group 4 - There is a notable performance differentiation among investment management institutions, with some achieving returns exceeding 12% while others reported negative returns [5][6] - The current equity investment ratio of enterprise annuity funds in A-shares is approximately 14%, indicating significant room for growth towards the 40% cap on equity investments [6]

政策利好下，近期券商板块明显回暖。6月18日，证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层增强制度 包容性适应性的意见》，科创板"1+6"改革细则出炉！有分析称，证券行业有望受益于科创板的深化改 革。消息面利好提振下，该如何看待券商板块的投资机遇？ 科创板IPO边际宽松，券商板块或迎利好！ 在科创板"1+6"改革方案中，"1"代表设置科创成长层，而"6"则指在科创板创新推出6项改革措施，包括 面向优质科技企业试点IPO预先审阅机制、扩大第五套标准适用范围、支持在审未盈利科技企业面向老 股东开展增资扩股等。 有分析称，"1+6"政策是促使资本市场更好地服务科技创新和新质生产力发展的有力举措。证券公司作 为中介机构，落实好自身"资本市场看门人"责任的前提下，业务发展受益于资本市场改革政策。政策落 地后，科创板IPO边际放松，或利好券商投行、PE直投业务发展。 （资料参考：开源证券《1+6政策落地 科创板IPO边际宽松 利好券商投行、直投业务》，2025.6.19） 此外，随着稳股市政策效果逐步显现，近期市场情绪明显回暖，沪深两市成交活跃度提升，或利好券商 板块。 如何看待券商板块的长期价值？ 当前，多重利好因素共振下， ...

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has entered a technical bull market, with the China Convertible Bond Index reaching a new high of 439.86 points on June 25, marking a cumulative increase of over 20% since September of the previous year [1][4][2]. Market Performance - The China Convertible Bond Index has shown a strong upward trend, reaching its highest level since June 26, 2015 [2]. - The convertible bond market has benefited from a supportive policy environment and a strong performance in the A-share market since September 24 of the previous year, which has boosted investor confidence [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing a shrinking supply, leading to increased scarcity and heightened demand from investors [1][4]. - Despite concerns over credit risk and defaults in the first half of 2024, the overall risk has significantly decreased, allowing for a recovery in investor confidence and capital inflow into the convertible bond market [5][6]. Fund Performance - Convertible bond funds have performed well, with several funds achieving year-to-date returns exceeding 8% as of June 24 [5]. - The scale of convertible bond ETFs has increased significantly, with the Bosera China Convertible Bond ETF reaching over 400 billion yuan, a fivefold increase from the beginning of 2024 [5][6]. Investor Behavior - Investors are exhibiting a tendency to take profits amid the strong performance of the convertible bond market, reflecting a rational approach to risk management [6][7]. - The current high valuation of the convertible bond market, with a median conversion premium rate close to 30%, raises concerns about potential price corrections if underlying stock prices fluctuate [8]. Future Outlook - The future performance of the convertible bond market may increasingly depend on the performance of underlying stocks, as high conversion premiums could lead to significant risks if stock prices decline [8][9]. - The ongoing supply contraction in the convertible bond market may lead to increased difficulty in selecting bonds, potentially reducing the market's attractiveness and liquidity [9].

《意见》提出支持增强消费能力，培育消费需求。夯实宏观经济基础，稳定消费预期，加大实体经济支 持力度，强化金融与财政、产业等政策协同联动，实施好货币政策和财政政策，健全资本市场功能，推 动中长期资金入市。同时，支持居民就业增收，强化民营和小微企业、个体工商户等经营主体金融服 务，创新金融产品，规范投资理财业务，提高居民财产性收入。此外，鼓励金融机构研发个人养老金专 属产品，加快推进商业保险年金产品创新，提升消费意愿。 在支持消费产业链上优质企业融资方面，《意见》明确发挥信贷支持主渠道作用，鼓励金融机构创新优 化信贷产品，加大对消费行业经营主体首贷、续贷、信用贷、中长期贷款支持力度。设立服务消费与养 老再贷款，额度5000亿元，对符合条件的金融机构发放的服务消费重点领域贷款，可按贷款本金的 100%申请再贷款。加大债券市场融资支持力度，支持文化、旅游、教育等服务消费领域企业及科创企 业发行债券。积极发展股权融资，支持消费产业链上优质企业通过发行上市、"新三板"挂牌等方式融 资，引导社会资本加大投资，发挥私募股权投资基金和创业投资基金作用。 《意见》提出加大消费重点领域金融支持。推动扩大商品消费，鼓励金融机构做好消 ...