Group 1 - The potential imposition of a 50% tariff on refined copper by the Trump administration could significantly increase costs for U.S. copper buyers, impacting the manufacturing sector that relies heavily on imported copper [1][2] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports, and the Chilean government is actively seeking exemptions from the proposed tariffs, emphasizing the importance of Chilean copper production to U.S. manufacturing [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the tariffs may increase domestic smelting and boost mining profits, they are unlikely to lead to substantial mining investments in the U.S. due to the long lead time required for new mining projects [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government has condemned the proposed tariffs, labeling them as "illegal" and a direct attack on Canadian workers, as Canada is the second-largest supplier of copper to the U.S. [2] - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with U.S. consumers likely to draw on existing inventories in response to the tariffs, which could affect demand for copper over the next nine months [2] - The U.S. produced 850,000 tons of refined copper from ore last year, with an additional 810,000 tons relying on imports, highlighting the country's significant dependence on foreign copper sources [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upward space of copper prices. If the 50% tariff on copper starts on August 1st, the subsequent arbitrage channel will close, export demand will sharply decrease, and inventory will start to accumulate, with the market trend being bearish. Currently, the market is mainly volatile as there are many uncertainties regarding the copper tariff [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper market opened high and weakened during the day. The issue of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and the proposed tariff on copper may extend the Fed's wait - and - see period. As of July 4, 2025, the spot smelting fee is - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.31 cents per pound. The expected supply shortage may improve. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1363500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80800 tons (+6.30%). July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - season [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and weakened during the day, closing at 78700. The long positions of the top 20 were 118651 lots, an increase of 2530 lots; the short positions were 115777 lots, a decrease of 3320 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 40 yuan per ton, and in South China was - 30 yuan per ton. On July 10, 2025, the LME official price was 9742 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 10 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 4, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.31 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 23300 tons, a decrease of 9478 tons from the previous period. As of July 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 67100 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 108700 tons, a slight increase of 625 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 231100 short tons, an increase of 7736 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump will not only include refined copper but also cover semi-finished products, significantly amplifying the market impact of the tariff [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff will apply to semi-finished copper products such as copper wire, copper plates, and copper tubes, which are essential for sectors like power grids, military, and data centers [1][2]. - The implementation of the tariff is set to begin on August 1, 2025, although the final details of the tariff measures are still subject to change [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts from Huatai Securities predict that the copper price may experience a correction after the tariff is implemented, especially given the traditional off-peak season in July and August, but they view this correction as a potential buying opportunity [1]. - The inclusion of semi-finished products in the tariff could disrupt processors who rely on imported raw materials, leading to increased costs across various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, construction, and military [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products. Last year, the U.S. imported approximately 800,000 tons of copper and copper alloy semi-finished products [2]. - Any disruption in foreign copper and semi-finished product supply could pose significant challenges for the U.S. power supply [2]. Group 4: Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the tariff may positively impact COMEX copper prices due to the nature of the tariff being applied to imports, which will increase costs reflected in domestic prices [3]. - However, the short-term impact on prices may be mitigated by existing inventory levels, which can be consumed before the full effect of the tariff is felt [3]. - HSBC anticipates that a "buying spree" may temporarily elevate copper prices in Shanghai and London, but once the tariff policy is clarified, excess copper may return to the global market, exerting downward pressure on prices [4].

特朗普征收 50%铜进口关税,市场 影响力的？ 全球资产配置热点聚焦系列之三十 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 lingj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fenaxv2@swsresearch.com 極遵乐 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究本品 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 联系人 2025 年 07 月 11日 从交易层面上来看,本轮事件驱动下,铜价变化呈现以下特征:1)关税公布后 COMEX 铜价大幅上 行,但是 LME 铜价、SHFE 铜反而下行,体现出远期纽约交易所的铜去库存压力。特朗普公布 50% 关税后,COMEX 铜价由于是完税价格,则该价格跟随关税税率而大幅上升,但是 LME 铜价反而下 行。跟踪铜全球库存可以发现,自从 2025 年 2 月特朗普关税风险出现后, COMEX 铜库存持续走高, 维持在季节性的绝对高位,而 LME 铜和 SHFE 铜库目 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.23%至 9682 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.26%至 78590 | | | 元/吨；国内现货铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美联储理事沃勒认为当前的联邦基金利 | | | 率过于具有限制性，并表示可能在本月底的美联储会议上就会支持降息，但认为美联 | | | 储应继续缩表，但缩表规模比预期低。另外，美联储内部继续就通胀未来产生分歧。特 | | | 朗普则继续敦促美联储降息，但从市场预测概率来看美联储 7 月降息概率仍较低。国 内方面，中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大 | | 铜 | 至 3.6%。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 975 吨至 108100 吨；Comex 库存增加 7018 吨 | | | 至 20.97 万吨；SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一微增 0.08 万吨至 14.37 万吨， | | | 较上周四增加 1.19 万吨。需 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's announcement on July 9, 2025, regarding a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective from August 1, 2025, leading to a significant rise in COMEX copper prices and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio [3][6][12] - The report highlights the historical context of copper tariffs and their effects on prices, noting that the COMEX copper price and the COMEX/LME copper price ratio have moved in tandem since early 2025 [12][13] - The report anticipates a tightening of global copper supply in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced production from both domestic and international smelting companies, while demand remains resilient despite being weaker than the previous year [29][30][35] Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, COMEX copper prices surged, while LME and SHFE copper prices declined, indicating a shift in inventory dynamics and local consumption patterns [14][20] - The report notes that COMEX copper inventories have reached seasonal highs, while LME and SHFE inventories are at seasonal lows, suggesting potential pressure on LME and SHFE prices if the tariffs are implemented [20][21][22] - The LME copper market is characterized by a high backwardation structure, providing a cushion against price declines due to low inventories [26] Supply and Demand Outlook - The report projects that global copper supply will tighten in the latter half of 2025, with a slowdown in copper mine supply growth and continued increases in domestic refined copper production [29][30] - Domestic demand for copper is expected to remain cautious, particularly in the power sector, while overseas demand may improve due to infrastructure initiatives in the U.S. and a recovery in Europe [35][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring potential production cuts among Chinese smelting companies, which could significantly influence market dynamics [30] Economic Implications - The report outlines the potential impact of rising copper prices on U.S. manufacturing costs, which could exacerbate inflationary pressures [42][50] - It highlights the heavy reliance of the U.S. on imported refined copper, with a projected supply gap of 43% of annual consumption in 2024, primarily sourced from Chile, Canada, and Peru [44][46] - The report discusses the broader implications for copper-producing countries, including potential shifts in global trade flows and the dual impact on China as both a beneficiary and a competitor in the refined copper market [52]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's plan to impose a 50% import tariff on copper will include semi-finished products, impacting materials used in power grids, military applications, and data centers [1] Group 1: Tariff Details - The proposed tariff will apply to various copper materials, with a specific focus on semi-finished products such as wires, sheets, and pipes [1] - While refined copper is expected to be subject to tariffs, the status of semi-finished products remains unclear [1]

智通财经APP获悉，全球铜交易商正向中国买家提供铜货品，因为他们希望将无法在特朗普总统规定的 50% 铜关税截止日期前运往美国的铜库存进行处理。特朗普在周三晚些时候表示，将从 8 月 1 日起实 施这项新关税，旨在促进从半导体到弹药等各类产品的国内生产。但他并未明确哪些铜产品将受到此影 响，也未说明是否会考虑例外情况。 据知情的中国铜贸易商称，中国是全球最大的铜消费国，自 6 月下旬以来，海外卖家提供的铜供应数量 一直在增加，目前达到了数月来的最高水平。另一位中国交易商表示，他们已收到一家来自南美洲的买 家提供的 1500 公吨铜的订单，预计于 7 月下旬或 8 月初交付，该供应商"急于找到买家"。 对中国的供应量增加反映了那些为应对关税而数月来一直将铜运往美国的交易商们，现在必须开始寻找 无法在关税生效前通过美国边境的货物的替代目的地。 据物流消息人士称，只有正在装货或已经在运输途中的来自拉丁美洲的铜才有可能在截止日期前完成交 付，即便如此，也很可能接近截止日期。Benchmark Mineral Intelligence铜业分析师 Albert Mackenzie表 示："如果智利的铜矿产品因运往美国的量 ...

智利铜矿开采公司Antofagasta首席执行官：铜关税将增加买家的成本。 ...

智利矿业部长：智利尚未收到关于铜关税的通知。 ...