1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff 2.0 on copper and copper products has a negative impact on the macro - sentiment. The tariff of 50% on copper and copper products starting from August 1st is beyond market expectations, causing a divergence in the trends of US and London copper, with the price difference widening to $2000 - 3000. The tariff will lead to a decrease in copper flowing from non - US regions to the US, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions and having a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. The recommended strategies are to short on rallies and sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was $44.25/ton, up $0.46 or 1.04% week - on - week. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1848 yuan/ton, down 1011 yuan or 54.72%. The southern crude copper processing fee remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of refined copper rods was 64%, down 3 percentage points or 5.11%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 25%, up 0.7 percentage points or 2.66%. The operating rate of wire and cable was 68%, down 4 percentage points or 5.47% [7]. - **Inventory**: The available days of copper concentrate port inventory were 5.6 days, down 0.2 days or 3.09%. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.29 million tons, up 0.47 million tons or 3.29%. The bonded area inventory was 7.29 million tons, up 0.59 million tons or 8.09%. The total global inventory was 50.04 million tons, up 4.05 million tons or 8.09% [7]. - **Valuation**: The spot smelting comprehensive profit was - 3850 yuan/ton, up 561 yuan or 14.58%. The long - term smelting comprehensive profit was - 317 yuan/ton, up 541 yuan or 170.69%. The import profit was - 970 yuan/ton, up 659 yuan or 67.93% [7]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Logic - Affected by the copper tariff expectation, about 400,000 tons of copper (about half a year's import volume in the US) has been imported into the US in advance. After the tariff is implemented in early August, the flow of copper from non - US regions to the US will stop, and the supply pressure in non - US regions will be alleviated. The tariff policy has a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.1.3 Fed Rate - cut Path - The report provides the expected interest rate changes and implied overnight interest rates of different regions and time points in the US through the federal funds futures and OIS models, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's rate - cut path [11]. Part 2: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price/Spread/Cost/Profit - **Price**: The report presents the historical data of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, and LME3 closing price [13][16][21][23]. - **Spread**: It shows the historical data of the Shanghai - London ratio, Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate), and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount [23]. - **Cost/Profit**: The report provides the historical data of spot copper import profit, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), feed - processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit for long - term contracts [25][27][29][31]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply/Demand - **Supply**: It includes the production of copper concentrate in Chile and Peru, the import volume of copper concentrate, scrap copper, and crude copper, and the production and import volume of electrolytic copper [33][37][40]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: The operating rates of refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire, as well as the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper rod lines are presented [44][45]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: The cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amounts are provided [46][47]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: The operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper tubes, and the production, domestic sales, and export volumes of household air conditioners are shown [54][55]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: The operating rate of copper plate - strips, and the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper plate - strips are presented [58][59]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided [61][62][64]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: The operating rate of brass rods, the monthly and cumulative housing completion areas, and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities are shown [67][68][70][72]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - **Domestic**: The report provides the historical data of domestic copper inventories, including social inventory, bonded area inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, and SMM copper concentrate port inventory [73][74]. - **Overseas**: It shows the historical data of overseas copper inventories, including LME electrolytic copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory [76][77]. Part 3: Capital Position 3.3.1 Copper External Market Position - On July 8th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 35.1%, slightly lower and basically flat, and the net long - position increased to 39,600 lots. On July 11th, the net long - position of LME investment funds was 32,182 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6990 lots [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in Shanghai copper prices is mainly due to the US plan to impose a 50% copper tariff, exceeding previous expectations. There is a cold expectation for cross - regional arbitrage in the future, and export demand will significantly decrease. Although the expectation of tight supply at foreign copper mines has not been reversed, the downward space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and weakened during the day. In June, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. Trump announced tariff hikes on 14 countries (effective on August 1), threatening to impose a 200% tariff on drugs and a 50% surcharge on copper. Since the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, US copper prices have risen significantly, while London copper and Shanghai copper prices have weakened to varying degrees [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting plant processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expectation of extremely tight copper supply may improve. After the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate [1]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate decreased, and the air - conditioning industry has passed its peak production and sales period and entered the off - season. The overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy have performed well [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened during the day, closing at 78,090. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,230 lots, a decrease of 705 lots; the short positions were 111,042 lots, an increase of 214 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 90 yuan per ton, and in South China it is 5 yuan per ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9,595 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 40 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on July 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.32 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 50,100 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 69,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 109,600 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 236,500 short tons, an increase of 3,061 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market for copper is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,430 with a daily decline of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a decline of 0.14%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,663 with a decline of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 17,565 to 81,666, and the position decreased by 2,386 to 178,682. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1,000 to 19,905, and the position decreased by 1,214 to 281,000. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 1,578 to 23,307, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 625 to 108,725. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 37.69% with a decline of 0.19% [1] - **Spot Data**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 21.57, a change of - 20.62 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 25, a change of - 40 from the previous day. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 140, a change of - 110 from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Trump issued trade letters this week, imposing a new round of tariffs on many countries, with the scope of the 50% copper tariff possibly expanding to semi - finished products, which may impact the construction of the US power grid and data centers [1] - **Micro**: The Indonesian Interior Minister asked to relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International. The new LME warehouse in Hong Kong attracted 100 tons of copper stored in "non - warrant" form before its official opening in mid - July. Ivanhoe's Kamoa - Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a 11% year - on - year increase in copper production in the second quarter, reaching 112,009 tons. Copper traders are shipping copper to Hawaii for tariff - related trade. First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources is key to extending the life of the Sentinel mine in Zambia [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with the value range being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry Core Insights - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump has led to a significant spike in copper prices, with COMEX copper reaching a historical high of $5.8955 per pound, marking a 17% increase, the largest single-day rise since 1968 [2] - The tariff is expected to have profound implications for both the U.S. and global copper markets, affecting supply chains and pricing dynamics [1][2] - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle sector, construction, home appliances, and electronics [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariff on Copper Prices - The 50% tariff on copper imports is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, causing immediate volatility in the global copper market [2] - The COMEX copper price surged to $5.6855 per pound on the announcement date, reflecting a dramatic market reaction [2] Section 2: China's Copper Industry Fundamentals and Tariff Impact - China's copper consumption ranks third among metals, with a strong demand from the power sector and growing needs from the electric vehicle industry [5] - By the end of 2024, China's power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.348 billion kilowatts, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [6] - China's refined copper production is expected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [7] Section 3: Reasons for Imposing Copper Tariff - The tariff is aimed at enhancing national security and supply chain resilience, ensuring a stable supply of critical resources [8] - The U.S. aims to boost domestic copper production by making imported copper more expensive, thereby supporting local producers [9] Section 4: Effects of Tariff Implementation - The tariff is likely to exacerbate price volatility in the copper market, with potential increases in global copper prices due to U.S. market dynamics [10] - U.S. manufacturers may face squeezed profit margins due to higher copper costs, impacting their competitiveness [10] - The tariff will lead to a restructuring of global copper supply chains, as major suppliers like Chile, Canada, and Mexico will seek new markets for their exports [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, raising concerns in the automotive industry about increased costs and the potential for these costs to be passed on to consumers [1][3] - Automotive manufacturers are currently relying on inventory to avoid price increases, but the additional costs from tariffs and rising domestic prices are intensifying financial pressures on manufacturers and suppliers [3][4] - The cost of steel, aluminum, and copper accounts for approximately 5% of U.S. automotive production costs, which could rise to 9% with the new tariffs [4] Group 2 - If the 50% tariff takes effect, the price of copper in the U.S. could reach $15,000 per ton, compared to $10,000 in other regions, significantly impacting the automotive industry [4] - The average tariff cost for domestically produced vehicles in the U.S. could be at least $1,700, while imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico could incur tariffs of $3,500, and other regions could face up to $5,700 [4] - The U.S. heavily relies on imported copper, aluminum, and steel, with nearly half of its copper consumption being imported, and domestic production is insufficient for self-sufficiency [4] Group 3 - Some industry experts are skeptical about the actual implementation of the copper tariffs, citing past instances where similar threats were postponed or retracted [5] - The potential for higher inflation due to tariffs may conflict with political realities surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in November 2026, suggesting that the copper tariffs may be short-lived [5]

白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，美国对铜关税的50%旨在促进美国本土产量。 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of new tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. could potentially increase Freeport-McMoRan's annual profits by $1.6 billion, benefiting from its position as the largest copper producer in the U.S. and having more expansion options than competitors [1] - Freeport-McMoRan accounts for 60% of U.S. copper production and has been developing U.S. mining projects with decades of growth potential without needing to reapply for permits [1][2] - The U.S. currently relies on imports for about half of its copper demand, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Peru [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan estimated in April that if the copper tariffs are enacted, it could see at least $800 million in profit growth due to price increases, with the current premium over the London Metal Exchange copper price having doubled [2] - The average time to build a mine in the U.S. is nearly 29 years, making it difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in copper production within a decade [3] - The U.S. has only three copper smelters for processing metal into wire and pipe, with one being inactive since 2019, down from seven in 1995 [3] Group 3 - Freeport plans to extract copper from previously deemed waste rock at its U.S. mines, potentially increasing its annual copper output by 800 million pounds by 2027 [4] - Freeport's mines in Arizona, such as Bagdad and Los Angeles, still have room for growth, and the company may expand its U.S. smelting operations [5] - Other smaller copper producers in the U.S. include KGHM, Lundin, and Grupo Mexico [6]

Group 1 - The potential imposition of a 50% tariff on refined copper by the Trump administration could significantly increase costs for U.S. copper buyers, impacting the manufacturing sector that relies heavily on imported copper [1][2] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports, and the Chilean government is actively seeking exemptions from the proposed tariffs, emphasizing the importance of Chilean copper production to U.S. manufacturing [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the tariffs may increase domestic smelting and boost mining profits, they are unlikely to lead to substantial mining investments in the U.S. due to the long lead time required for new mining projects [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government has condemned the proposed tariffs, labeling them as "illegal" and a direct attack on Canadian workers, as Canada is the second-largest supplier of copper to the U.S. [2] - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with U.S. consumers likely to draw on existing inventories in response to the tariffs, which could affect demand for copper over the next nine months [2] - The U.S. produced 850,000 tons of refined copper from ore last year, with an additional 810,000 tons relying on imports, highlighting the country's significant dependence on foreign copper sources [2][3]