Group 1 - The market is currently in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut environment, which is the primary factor driving gold prices up, leading to a significant surge on Monday, reaching around 3490 [2] - Following the strong performance on Monday, gold is expected to maintain its upward trend on Tuesday, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing highs [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance at 3502 and support at 3465, suggesting a wait for adjustments before entering long positions [4] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have surged in line with international market trends, with the Shanghai gold contract reaching a high of 812, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [4] - International silver prices have also shown strength, currently around 40.8, with a key support level at 40, suggesting potential for further upside [4] - The Shanghai silver contract has reached a new high of 9940, with a clear bullish trend, but caution is advised against entering short positions until a peak is confirmed [5] Group 3 - International crude oil prices are expected to continue rising, with support at 62.5 and a target of 68 to 70 if the price breaks above 65 [5] - Domestic fuel oil has also seen an increase, currently at 2860, with expectations of reaching 3000 if the upward trend continues [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have been on an upward trend, with a significant increase observed, reaching a peak of $3453 before closing at $3447, marking four consecutive days of gains [1][3] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have created an upward cycle for gold [3] - Technical indicators suggest that the gold market may be overbought, and potential uncertainties over the weekend could lead to price fluctuations [1][3] Group 2 - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at $3439, with strong support at $3432-$3423, while resistance levels are noted at $3454-$3458 and strong resistance at $3466-$3470 [3] - The market is expected to react to upcoming economic reports, including the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and non-farm payroll data, which could push prices towards $3500 [3] - The trading strategy recommended is to focus on buying on dips, with a suggested entry point around $3440 and a target of $3455, while maintaining a stop-loss at $3330 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD index remains stable but is highly sensitive to economic data and Federal Reserve policies, reflecting a tug-of-war between policy expectations and economic indicators [1][3]. Economic Data Impact - Employment data significantly influences the USD; recent revisions showed a decrease of 258,000 in non-farm payrolls for May and June, impacting market sentiment [3]. - If September's non-farm data indicates continued employment weakness, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may increase, potentially pressuring the USD [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest that rate cuts remain a possibility amid slowing economic growth [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting, with some officials suggesting a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if dovish sentiments prevail [3]. Technical Analysis - The short-term resistance for the USD index is identified at 98.45–98.50, with a key resistance zone at 98.80–98.85; a breakthrough could expand upward potential [4]. - Support levels are noted at 98.00–98.05 and more critically at 97.80–97.85; breaking these levels may trigger a technical correction [4]. - The USD is currently exhibiting a range-bound pattern between 98.00 and 98.80, with market volatility expected around key support and resistance levels [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that gold prices are expected to continue rising, but the likelihood of breaking out of the current range in the short term is low due to market expectations already being priced in regarding a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Outlook - Gold is anticipated to maintain an upward trend, with a significant breakout requiring stronger momentum [1] - The performance of August's non-farm payrolls will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions in September [1] Price Levels - Key resistance levels to watch are 3400 and 3430; breaking these levels could lead to substantial upward movement [1] - If these levels are not breached, the market may revert to a consolidation phase, awaiting next week's non-farm data [1] Trading Strategy - The current strategy suggests looking for buying opportunities on dips, particularly around the ideal entry points of 3359 and 3350 [1] - A strong bullish trend is expected to continue, with the primary focus on buying during pullbacks today [1]

Core Insights - The latest non-farm payroll data significantly impacts the U.S. economy, influencing stock markets, gold, and silver prices [1][3][4] - Strong non-farm data may lead to accelerated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing borrowing costs for companies and potentially pressuring the stock market [1][4] - Conversely, weak non-farm data could ease rate hike pressures, providing support for the stock market [1][4] Impact on Financial Markets - Non-farm data directly affects the U.S. dollar's exchange rate, which in turn influences gold and silver prices [3][4] - Strong non-farm data typically reduces demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to price declines, while weak data increases demand and drives prices up [3][4] - Silver prices are influenced by both safe-haven demand and industrial usage, making them sensitive to economic conditions reflected in non-farm data [3][4] Investment Strategy Considerations - Investors should analyze non-farm data in conjunction with economic outlook, monetary policy, and market sentiment to formulate effective investment strategies [4] - In the current economic landscape, both gold and silver markets present opportunities and risks, necessitating cautious monitoring of market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data has significant implications for the gold and silver markets, influencing both the U.S. dollar exchange rate and market sentiment [1][3]. Impact on Gold and Silver Markets - Non-farm payroll data affects gold and silver prices primarily through its impact on the U.S. dollar; strong data typically strengthens the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, while weak data may weaken the dollar, providing support for these precious metals [1][3]. - The current trend of a slowing recovery in the U.S. job market may signal increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets amid rising global economic uncertainty [3][4]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to observe market reactions to non-farm data releases to adjust their investment strategies accordingly; if the data leads to a weaker dollar, gold prices may rise, suggesting an opportunity to increase gold holdings [3][4]. - Silver, while also a safe-haven asset, is influenced by industrial demand, making its price sensitive to economic activity; thus, non-farm data can impact silver demand and pricing [3][4]. Market Reactions - The release of non-farm payroll data can also lead to volatility in the stock market; strong employment data may boost market confidence, while disappointing data could raise concerns about economic slowdown, affecting stock performance [3][4]. Conclusion - Monitoring changes in non-farm payroll data, alongside factors like market sentiment, dollar exchange rates, and inflation expectations, is crucial for formulating effective investment strategies in the precious metals market [4].

Group 1 - The recent firing of the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics raises concerns about the politicization of data collection, particularly regarding the July CPI data [1] - There have been significant revisions to non-farm payroll data, with over 800,000 jobs being revised downward last year, indicating a pattern of over-reporting by approximately 60,000 jobs each month [1] - The non-farm payroll figures for June were revised from 147,000 to 14,000, and for May from 144,000 to 19,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [1]

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - The total silver futures warehouse receipts reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 11 amounted to 1,151,962 kilograms, with a decrease of 6,425 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][4] - The main silver futures contract opened at 9,260 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 9,293 yuan, a low of 9,192 yuan, and closed at 9,210 yuan, reflecting a decline of 0.72% [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Following the Federal Reserve's July meeting, the labor market has shown significant changes, with July non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, well below the market expectation of 104,000 [2] - The downward revision of the previous two months' employment data by a total of 258,000 marks the largest adjustment since 1979, leading to a three-month moving average employment increase of only 35,000 [2] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, which remains low and aligns with expectations [2] - The upcoming Jackson Hole conference (August 21-23) is anticipated to be a critical window for Fed Chair Powell to adjust forward guidance based on the labor market data [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Movements - Following the non-farm data release, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by over 20 basis points and 10 basis points, respectively, indicating a market re-evaluation of policy expectations after the recent hawkish FOMC meeting [3] - The ability of U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, to maintain an upward trend will depend on the upcoming CPI data on August 12 [3]

Market Overview - US stock market rebounded with the Dow Jones up 585.06 points (1.34%) to 44,173.64, Nasdaq up 403.45 points (1.95%) to 21,053.58, and S&P 500 up 91.93 points (1.47%) to 6,329.94 [1] - The rebound followed a significant drop in the previous trading session, where the Dow fell over 500 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw their worst single-day performances since May and April respectively [1] Economic Data Impact - The market is reacting to disappointing non-farm payroll data, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 104,000, and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The downward revision of employment data for May and June by nearly 260,000 jobs has raised concerns about the labor market's strength [3] - Investors are assessing the implications of weak labor market data on future market performance, especially in light of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates [2][3] Federal Reserve and Political Influence - President Trump announced plans to appoint new members to the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may influence economic policy [4][5] - The recent firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head due to dissatisfaction with employment data has raised concerns about the politicization of economic data [3][5] Company-Specific News - Tesla approved a stock award of 96 million shares to CEO Elon Musk, valued at approximately $29 billion, contingent on Musk paying an exercise price of $23.34 per share [6] - Spotify plans to increase subscription fees in certain regions from €10.99 to €11.99 starting in September [6] - Amphenol is set to acquire CommScope's broadband business, which is expected to enhance Amphenol's earnings per share [6] - Citigroup raised its price target for Advanced Micro Devices from $37 to $52 [6] - UBS reached a $300 million settlement with the US Department of Justice regarding a mortgage bond case [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, the U.S. July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, effective August 7. The dollar index rose weekly. Globally, stocks fell, and the bond and commodity markets were generally weak, with bonds > commodities > stocks in dollar - terms. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market rose, with commodities > stocks > bonds [3][6]. - The July non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about the uncertainty of subsequent policies. It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of major foreign policies on the market and keep an eye on the changes in the prices of major asset classes [3][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market Overview**: From July 28 to August 1, due to concerns triggered by non - farm payrolls data, major global stock markets generally declined. European stocks led the decline, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For example, MSCI Europe fell 4.12%, while emerging market stock indices fell 2.51% [8][13]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: During the same period, the Fed's July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. After the non - farm payrolls data was released, the expectation of a rate cut increased. The yields of medium - and long - term U.S. Treasuries declined, with the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield falling 17BP to 4.23%. Globally, credit bonds > government bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The preliminary value of the U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate exceeded expectations, causing the dollar index to rise 1.04% weekly. Most major non - dollar currencies depreciated against the dollar, and the RMB exchange rate declined slightly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Due to the risk of U.S. energy sanctions on Russia and Iran and the expectation of peak - season demand, international oil prices rose weekly, while most agricultural products and non - ferrous metals prices fell [17]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: From July 28 to August 1, after policy expectations were realized, major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The communication and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while non - ferrous metals and coal underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94% [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: During this period, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan, and the liquidity was generally stable. The bond market rose weekly, with government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oilseeds and oils rose, while the black - metal sector underperformed. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 2.46% [24][25]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook - The July non - farm payrolls data has led to market concerns about the uncertainty of subsequent policies. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in major asset prices [27].