Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant downward revisions in U.S. non-farm employment data, indicating potential issues with data accuracy and reliability, raising concerns about the underlying economic conditions [1][4][19] Group 1: Employment Data Revisions - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000, marking the largest downward adjustment since the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 125,000 jobs for May, changing from +144,000 to +19,000, and a reduction of 133,000 jobs for June, from +147,000 to +14,000 [2][7] Group 2: Data Collection Challenges - The accuracy of employment reports is being challenged by a declining response rate from businesses and households participating in government surveys, with recent response rates dropping below 60%, compared to pre-pandemic levels of over 70% [10][12] - The Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to collect and analyze economic data is being hampered by budget cuts and resource constraints, particularly highlighted during the Trump administration [15][16] Group 3: Underlying Issues - The decline in survey participation is attributed to long-standing social and institutional factors, including public fatigue with surveys and eroding trust in government institutions [13][14] - Economic policy changes under the Trump administration may have further exacerbated the quality of data, as businesses struggle to adapt to rapid policy shifts [17]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm employment data shows a significant downward revision in previous months, indicating an overestimation of employment levels, particularly in government sectors. The overall labor market is cooling down, with rising unemployment rates and declining labor participation rates [2][3][5]. Employment Data Revision - The July non-farm employment recorded an increase of 73,000 jobs, but previous months' data were heavily revised downwards. June's employment was adjusted from 147,000 to 14,000, and May's from 144,000 to 19,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [3][2]. Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, while the U6 unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.9%. This indicates a broad cooling of the job market, with a decrease in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since the beginning of 2023 [5][6]. Sector-Specific Employment Changes - Job growth in July was concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors, with retail, education, and financial activities seeing the most significant increases. However, government employment decreased by 10,000 jobs, marking the third negative month this year, with substantial downward revisions in previous months [6][2]. Labor Market Supply and Demand - As of June, job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.44 million, with a vacancy rate of 4.4%. The labor supply-demand gap recorded 422,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [8]. Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings in July increased by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9%. However, long-term trends show a slowdown in wage growth since November 2024 [9][10]. Real Wage Growth - The real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, showed a year-over-year increase of 1% in June, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This indicates stable wage income growth [10]. Sectoral Wage Changes - In July, the highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 5.2% and 5.1%, respectively. Conversely, the slowest growth was in public utilities and construction, with declines of approximately 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points [12]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts in September have increased, with the probability rising from 40% to 80%. The anticipated number of rate cuts for the year has also increased from 1.3 to 2.2 [16].

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 8 月 1 日公布数据 ， 7 月美国就业数据显著 走低 。 7 月新增非农 7.3 万人，低于预期的 10.4 万人。 此外，前两月数据显著下修， 5 月和 6 月数据共下修 25.8 万人， 5 月数据下修 12.5 万人至 1.9 万人， 6 月数据下修 13.3 万人至 1.4 万人。 由于几天前公布的美国二季度 GDP 数据、 7 月"小非农" ADP 就业数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二， 为何 非农数据波动那么大 ？ 实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的统计方 法 vs 越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（ NBD ）的技术性失真。 NBD 模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近年的复杂宏 观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因， 在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法立即适应，从而使得 初始就业数据偏离实际情况， 带来 后续 大幅 修正 ；三是 BLS 调查 ...

解雇鲍威尔将扰乱市场。一旦鲍威尔的任期结束，就将马上任命另一位美联储主席。 特朗普：解雇劳工统计局局长是因为"我们不相信那些数据"（即非农数据）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading to a rebound in non-US currencies, with the Euro against the US Dollar rising above 1.15 [1] Group 1 - The Euro/USD has rebounded to above 1.15, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The strongest resistance level to watch is at 1.15426, with an initial focus on the resistance at 1.1537 [1] - The support level to monitor is the daily 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.14946 [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of recent non-farm payroll data on the gold market, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in the gold trading space [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The release of non-farm payroll data is a significant event that influences market dynamics, particularly in the gold sector [1] - The analysis suggests that traders are currently evaluating the implications of this data on future gold prices, indicating a critical decision-making period for market participants [1]

期货市场暗示，交易员认为美联储在9月会议上降息25个基点的可能性为75%。 美国7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，预估为增加10.4万人，前值为增加14.7万人。数据创9个月以来新 低。 非农数据公布后，美元指数DXY短线下挫约40点，现报99.79。 ...

金十数据8月1日讯，美国7月季调后非农就业人口录得7.3万人，为去年10月以来最小增幅，低于市场预 期的11万人。 非农数据低于市场预期 ...

非农数据即将公布，黄金是筑底反弹，还是空头再下一城？TTPS团队上海现场分享中，点击进入直播 间观看 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

非农数据前瞻直播中 今晚将公布非农数据，趋势是否能明朗？下方支撑能守住吗？实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中，点击 马上观看！ 相关链接 ...