Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, consider phased profit - taking or defensive operations, and consider shorting small - and medium - cap indexes on rallies [11]. - For treasury bond futures, adopt a volatile mindset and mainly wait and see [12]. - For the European container shipping route, the market has released its previous trading momentum, and now focuses on the implementation of freight rate increases. The 08 contract may be more volatile in the short - term and needs to pay attention to multiple factors in the long - term [13]. - For cotton, the cotton price is under pressure to fluctuate due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion [15]. - For sugar, domestic sugar prices decline slowly following international sugar prices, with uncertainties in supply and demand [18]. - For eggs, it is recommended to short the 07 contract on rallies, as egg prices are expected to face pressure in June [21]. - For apples, it is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads [22]. - For red dates, reduce short positions appropriately and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 09 - 01/11 - 01 reverse spread strategy [24]. - For crude oil, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile operation [26]. - For fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price and is stronger than crude oil [27]. - For plastics, consider short - selling after a rebound and long - position the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [27]. - For rubber, consider selling out - of - the - money call options and take profit when the price drops [29]. - For methanol, do not chase short positions in the short - term, and short after a rebound [30]. - For caustic soda, maintain a long - biased mindset while respecting the futures technical chart [31]. - For soda ash and glass, prices are expected to remain weak [32]. - For asphalt, the futures price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400 [33]. - For the polyester industry chain, it is recommended to short on rallies [33]. - For pulp, pay attention to macro - sentiment, and sell call options on rallies [33]. - For logs, pay attention to capital and macro - sentiment, and consider selling covered calls [33]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34]. - For aluminum and alumina, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend [34]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a short - biased view [34]. - For steel and iron ore, the short - term is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, and the medium - term is expected to remain weak [35]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [35]. - For ferroalloys, go long on ferrosilicon at low prices, hold short positions in silicomanganese, and long ferrosilicon while shorting silicomanganese [35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The May Fed meeting minutes show that policymakers believe the economy faces higher uncertainty and should be cautious about interest rate cuts [9]. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng welcomes more US financial institutions to cooperate with China [9]. - US President Trump warns Israel not to attack Iran and hopes to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran [9]. - Tesla CEO Musk questions Trump's tax and spending bill [9]. - NATO plans to increase the number of combat brigades and defense spending targets [9]. - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction is cold, and market concerns spread [10]. - In April, China's local governments issued new and refinancing bonds [10]. - OPEC + agrees to maintain the current oil production quota plan and will discuss a July production increase [10]. Stock Index Futures - The year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits from January to April was 1.4%, basically in line with expectations. Small - and medium - cap indexes are highly crowded, and the market may take a short - term rest [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and loose, but the bond market is still weak due to banks' balance - sheet contraction and bond selling [12]. European Container Shipping Route - The previous trading momentum has been released, and the focus is on the implementation of freight rate increases. The 08 contract may be more volatile in the short - term, and multiple factors need attention in the long - term [13]. Cotton - During the Sino - US tariff observation period, the cotton price is under pressure due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The US cotton output is expected to decline, while Brazil's output is expected to increase [15][16]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices decline slowly following international sugar prices. Globally, sugar supply is expected to increase, while domestic supply is currently abundant but inventory is low [18][19]. Eggs - Before the Dragon Boat Festival, egg prices are weak, and there is still great pressure in June. It is recommended to short the 07 contract on rallies [21]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is waiting for more clarity on the apple's fruit - setting situation after bagging [22]. Red Dates - Reduce short positions appropriately. After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking, the market enters the off - season, and the supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak [23]. Live Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 09 - 01/11 - 01 reverse spread strategy. The supply is under double pressure, and the demand may weaken seasonally [24][25]. Crude Oil - OPEC + plans to increase production in July. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken. The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile [26]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price follows the oil price, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by refined oil cracking profits [27]. Plastics - L and PP are currently weak, but the downward space is limited. Consider short - selling after a rebound and long - position the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [27]. Rubber - The overall trend is weakly volatile. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options. NR is relatively stronger than RU in the short - term [29]. Methanol - Do not chase short positions in the short - term, and short after a rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is weak [30]. Caustic Soda - The futures market shows a signal of turning from short to long. The spot price is stable, and it is recommended to maintain a long - biased mindset [31]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply increases, and downstream demand is stable. Glass demand is pessimistic, and the price is expected to be weak [32]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to follow the oil price and approach 3400. The northern asphalt is relatively strong, and the production is lower than expected [33]. Polyester Industry Chain - Operate by short - selling on rallies. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to increase, and the terminal textile market recovers weakly [33]. Pulp - The demand is rigid, and the inventory is high. The market is weakly volatile in the short - term. Consider selling call options on rallies [33]. Logs - The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to downstream construction and port inventory. Consider selling covered calls [33]. Urea - The urea futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term. The inventory has increased, and the market is affected by multiple factors [34]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, and alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. The supply of alumina is expected to be balanced in June [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - biased view before the effective supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in June, and the price is under pressure [34]. Steel and Iron Ore - The demand for steel is seasonally weak, and the supply is at a relatively high level. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile consolidation, and the medium - term is expected to remain weak [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and they are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [35]. Ferroalloys - Ferrosilicon has a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Silicomanganese supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions [35].

Core Viewpoint - The significant gap between the current Brent crude oil price of around $65 and the $96 needed by Saudi Arabia to balance its budget is leading to a decline in the Saudi stock market, making it the worst-performing globally [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Tadawul All Share Index in Saudi Arabia has dropped 6.4% since May, marking the worst performance among 92 indices tracked by Bloomberg and experiencing its longest four-month losing streak since 2014 [1][3]. - The weak oil prices are primarily responsible for the negative sentiment in the Saudi stock market, with crude oil prices hitting a four-year low in early April due to trade tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ members [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Pressure - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit in the first quarter reached its highest level since the end of 2021, raising concerns about the impact of declining oil revenues on the government's transformation plans [3]. - According to Bloomberg economist Ziad Daoud, the Saudi government requires a crude oil price of $96 to balance its budget, which rises to $113 when including domestic spending from the sovereign wealth fund, both figures being the highest since the launch of the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs warned that Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could swell to $67 billion this year, potentially forcing the government to increase borrowing and cut back on economic transformation plans [3]. - Fiera Capital's fund manager Dominic Bokor-Ingram noted that ambitious mega-projects may face delays due to fiscal constraints, with Saudi Arabia's oil breakeven level being higher than that of regional peers [3]. - Compounding the situation, OPEC+ may discuss increasing production, which could further exacerbate concerns about oversupply and put additional pressure on oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of the US dollar may remain limited due to ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth and budget deficits in the US [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The rebound in the US consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board in May has contributed to a stronger dollar [1] - More positive data is needed to rebuild market confidence in US economic growth [1] Group 2: Risks and Outlook - Concerns regarding the budget deficit are expected to persist in the short term [1] - The dollar continues to face "downside risks" in the near term [1] - The unexpected rise in consumer confidence has somewhat mitigated these risks, but caution remains regarding the pursuit of a dollar index breakthrough above the 100 mark [1]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk expressed disappointment with President Trump's large spending bill, criticizing it for increasing the budget deficit and undermining the work of the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) team [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Context - The U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed Trump's spending bill, which is seen as a significant legislative success for his second term, and it will now move to the Senate for a vote [2]. - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. national debt by over $3.3 trillion over the next decade, despite some cuts to social spending [2]. Group 2: Musk's Criticism - Musk has long claimed that without reducing the deficit, the U.S. could face bankruptcy, and he reiterated this sentiment during the CBS interview, questioning the feasibility of the bill being both grand and effective [2]. - This marks Musk's strongest criticism of the Trump administration to date, following previous comments on trade policies and conflicts with Trump officials regarding DOGE staffing [2]. Group 3: DOGE and Musk's Focus - Musk resigned from his position at DOGE to focus more on Tesla, indicating a commitment to work extensively on his company [3]. - He plans to significantly reduce his political campaign contributions after investing nearly $300 million in support of Trump and other Republicans last year [3]. - Musk expressed frustration with the cost-saving efforts of DOGE, suggesting that legislative obstacles hindered progress, with claimed savings of $175 billion being largely unverifiable [3].

（特朗普）关税带来"可观的（财政）收入"，一年就有好几千亿美元。 我觉得，未来数周将出现几个大的贸易协议。 美国财长贝森特：共和党提出的税收草案提供永久性的（低水平）税率，这将带来确定性。 目标是，预算赤字占GDP比重到2028年为3%。 对赤字前景"非常乐观"。 ...

土耳其财长：我们将保持预算纪律，但预算赤字可能略高于我们的预期。 ...

罗马尼亚当选总统达恩：2025年预算赤字的实际目标是占GDP的7.5%。 ...

在全球最大的债券市场，投资者正在抵制美国总统特朗普的减税计划。5月21日，由于政府官员与共和 党议员会面，敲定一项减税协议，基准30年期美国国债收益率当天飙升至5.1%，，并引发股市和美元 下跌。令人担忧的是，这项减税法案将在未来几年使本已膨胀的预算赤字再增加数万亿美元，而目前全 球投资者对美国资产的兴趣正在减弱。 ...

美国前财长努钦：比起贸易逆差，美国预算赤字其实更令人担忧。 ...

据路透调查：预计南非的预算赤字在2025/26年度占GDP比重为4.70%；2026/27年为4.40%（3月份政府 估计分别为4.60%和3.80%）。 ...