Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant liquidity injection of 1.2 trillion yuan through a reverse repurchase operation during the May Day holiday, aimed at ensuring ample funds in the banking system, which is expected to have a profound impact on the financial market [1] Group 1: Impact on Financial Market - The direct beneficiaries of this operation are banks, as the liquidity will enhance their lending capacity and potentially increase profit margins [2] - Financial stocks, including securities and insurance, are expected to benefit indirectly from the increased liquidity [2] - The injection of funds may also stimulate consumer demand, particularly in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, and furniture, which are likely to attract more investment [2] Group 2: Reasons Supporting A-share Market Performance Post-Holiday - Incremental funds entering the market: Although the 1.2 trillion yuan primarily targets the real economy, some of this liquidity may indirectly flow into the stock market, enhancing market activity [3] - Weight of key sectors: Financial and consumer stocks hold a significant weight in the A-share market; a strong performance in these sectors could substantially increase the likelihood of index gains [4] - Approaching turning point: The A-share market has been consolidating before the holiday, and the PBOC's liquidity injection may act as a catalyst for a market shift [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that large-scale liquidity injections by the central bank, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or reverse repos, often lead to an upward trend in the A-share market within 1-3 months, especially during the early stages of economic recovery [5]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed a significant rebound with the Nasdaq index rising by 2.71% and the Dow Jones index increasing by 2.66%, indicating a reduction in market panic [1] - Conversely, gold prices fell sharply from $3509.9/oz to around $3316.0/oz, a decline of approximately 4.3%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] A-share Market Performance - Despite positive signals from the US market, A-shares experienced a high open but low close, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to maintain the 3300-point level, closing down by 0.10% at 3296.36 points [1] - The trading volume in the two markets reached 12.625 billion yuan, an increase of 1.413 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a phase of consolidation [1] Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Following a significant drop on April 7, the market saw a rebound due to the intervention of stabilizing institutions like the China Securities Finance Corporation, which contributed to multiple days of upward movement [2] - As the index rose, investor caution increased, leading to a decrease in trading volume, which fell below 1 trillion yuan, suggesting that previous bottom-fishing funds are now in profit [4] Sector Analysis - The banking sector, which had previously supported the market's rise, is now showing signs of weakness after reaching historical highs, contributing to a broader market pullback [4] - Other sectors such as insurance, securities, and real estate are also experiencing weakness, indicating a potential shift in market leadership [4] Future Market Outlook - The banking sector is expected to maintain a stabilizing role without significant declines, as market sentiment has improved, allowing for a pause in aggressive upward movements [4] - The index is near the 3300-point mark, facing challenges due to a large number of trapped investors, making further upward movement difficult [5] - A rotation is occurring where funds from weakening large-cap stocks are flowing into underperforming small-cap stocks, suggesting a continuation of the rebound rather than its end [6] - The market is anticipated to undergo a phase of independent movement, leading to a potential major upward trend after sufficient adjustments [6]

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后续的行情无非是两种情况，比较理想的是在补缺的过程中出了一些重大消息，缺口补到一半被突然拉起，这样起码能拖到春节前夕。比较悲观的 向下彻底补缺后，又到了群众们喜闻乐见的3000点攻防战，这种可能性估计在60%以上。 很多人一看行情萎靡了，就想着趁现在还有3100多就先卖了，回头等跌到3000点以下再买回来。这个想法听着不错，但实操中总是有各种各样的 意外，比如万一行情出现拉升要不要认错回补，以及拉升多少才确定认错， 这些都是要事先做好预案的。 我以前总是鼓励大家降低交易频率，耐心持仓做时间的队友，现在想法发生了改变，真要在a股长线捂仓收益预期很差，还要搭进去大量的时间和心 力，还不如去买点债券放那里，起码省心省力。 今天a股有一个连续纪录被打破了，全天成交额只有9663亿，结束了连续72天成交上万亿的记录。 成交量体现了一个市场的生命力，之前熊市的时候日成交在5000亿左右，9月底行情起来的时候迅速攀升至2万-2.5万亿的水平，之后逐渐冷却，现在跌破 万亿，意味着又回到了昔日半死不活的区间。 今天上证指数向下回补缺口，补了一部分后遇到了反弹抵抗，昨天缺口区间是3087-3152，今天已经更新为3087-314 ...

截止我写文章这会，新加坡a50期货相较9月30日15点的位置上涨了13.7%，恒生科技指数相较节前上涨13.36%，恒生国企指数上涨10.93%，恒生指数上 涨9.3%。 这几个都是和a股关联度最高的指数，比如9月24日至9月30日，a50指数上涨22%，咱们a股的上证50指数同区间也涨了22%，参考性很高。所以明天开盘 几乎可以肯定在3500点以上，大盘整体+7%、+8%都很有可能，部分热门板块和个股我猜上来就涨停了。 这个国庆长假的信息很多，但今晚的情况很特殊，我决定做减法，筛掉一些信息，只讲我认为对明天最有价值的部分。 首先要总结性了解一下7天长假期间，一些境外标的的波动情况。 这个时候涨幅限制就很关键，st只能涨5%太耽误事了，主板个股10%现在大家都嫌慢，创业板和科创板的20%才是把时间窗口和情绪价值都利用到位的 典范。还有很多人讨论北交所，因为那里个股的涨幅是30%，但这个我劝诸位冷静，因为北证开户的门槛没有下降，在吸纳韭菜方面有天然短板。 支撑这波行情起飞的重要因素就是财富效应出圈后，大量新增资金踩踏涌入a股，这也是今晚要说的第二件事情。 这个长假的新增开户确实爆了，之前网友说单日600万那不可 ...