Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving the 2035 long-term goals, serving as a transitional phase between the previous and upcoming plans [3][4] - The capital market is expected to experience opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan," characterized by three main aspects: the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, the rise of AI trends, and the advantages of Chinese manufacturing [4][5] Group 1: Historical Context and Strategic Importance - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a key phase for realizing the 2035 vision of achieving basic socialist modernization, bridging the "14th" and "16th" plans [3] - It is also crucial for completing the reform tasks set out in the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session by 2029, which includes over 300 significant reform measures across various sectors [3] Group 2: Capital Market Opportunities - The capital market during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is characterized by three main opportunities: 1. The ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, which may still be in its early stages due to the restructuring of the international monetary order [4] 2. The AI wave, where China is positioned favorably in global AI competition, leveraging its market size, industrial ecosystem, and policy support [4] 3. The advantages of Chinese manufacturing, which holds nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added and leads in the production of most major industrial products [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Characteristics - The capital market is anticipated to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by several factors: 1. Increased government focus on capital market development, which is expected to play a significant role in achieving the 2035 goals [6] 2. The current A-share market is underpinned by solid fundamentals, benefiting from a large market environment and policy incentives [6] 3. Historical data indicates that A-share valuations remain reasonable, suggesting no overvaluation at present [6] Group 4: Historical Market Performance - Since the "15th" plan in 2001, the A-share market has exhibited three notable characteristics: 1. The index has shown more gains than losses, with increasing resilience over time, as evidenced by varying performance across different five-year plans [6][7] 2. Market performance tends to be stronger in the initial and final years of each five-year plan, indicating a correlation with planning expectations and goal achievements [7] 3. Short-term event-driven effects are significant, with positive market performance observed in the lead-up to and following the release of five-year planning documents [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading producer of high-purity quartz sand, with applications in both photovoltaic and semiconductor sectors. It has a comprehensive product range and a well-established supply chain [1][15]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing sustained demand driven by the AI wave, with significant potential for domestic substitution. The company is one of the few that has received TEL certification for its semiconductor products, positioning it well to benefit from this trend [2][64]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing strong growth, with the company maintaining a leading position in the market for quartz crucibles, which are essential for silicon wafer production [3][67]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co., Ltd. was established in 1992 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2014. The company offers a wide range of products including high-purity quartz sand, quartz tubes, and crucibles, serving various applications in semiconductors, photovoltaics, and optical fibers [1][15][16]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted market size of $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the domestic substitution trend due to its certifications and product quality [2][41]. - The domestic semiconductor industry has a high dependency on imports, with a trade deficit of $226.1 billion in 2024, indicating a substantial opportunity for local manufacturers [2][58]. Photovoltaic Sector - The global photovoltaic market is expected to maintain growth, with new installations projected between 466-549 GW in 2025. The company is a key player in the quartz crucible market, which is crucial for the production of silicon wafers [3][67]. - The market for photovoltaic-grade quartz crucibles is anticipated to grow, with a projected CAGR of 21.5% from 2024 to 2029, further driving demand for high-purity quartz sand [3][72]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a rebound in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with estimates of 2.2 billion yuan, 5.6 billion yuan, and 9.1 billion yuan respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be 0.41 yuan, 1.03 yuan, and 1.68 yuan [7][8]. - The report highlights the sensitivity of the company's net profit to changes in quartz sand prices, indicating significant potential for profit growth if prices recover [7][88].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing factors such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policy, stable corporate earnings, and valuation advantages in certain markets [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to see a rebound due to its low valuation and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while the A-share market is supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Gold - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold's strength remains intact, driven by demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against sovereign debt risks and inflation [5][6]. - Short-term technical pressures may affect gold prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global uncertainties that bolster safe-haven demand [6][7]. - The gold sector is viewed as a strong investment choice due to multiple converging factors, including concerns over global trade policies and a weakening dollar, which enhances gold's investment appeal [6][7]. Group 3: Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to economic growth during the inflation cycle [7]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is expected to support coal prices, making it a sector worth monitoring [7]. Group 4: Balanced Strategy - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining stocks, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities [8]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of diversifying across global markets to reduce single-market risks while focusing on structural opportunities in equity markets [8][9]. - The proposed allocation includes a core focus on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, with satellite investments in industrial metals like copper and aluminum [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the September CPI data, which is now expected on October 24. The CPI for September shows a year-on-year increase of 3%, which is below expectations, and the core inflation has risen by only 0.2% month-on-month, marking the slowest growth in three months [2] - The weak CPI data, combined with the government shutdown, may further stimulate the Federal Reserve's willingness to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. The market has already priced in two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for the remainder of the year [2][3] - Service sector inflation has begun to cool, which is significant as it indicates a slowdown in economic growth and demand, contributing to the decline in CPI [2][3] Group 2 - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September, the lowest level since June. The significant decline in core service costs is a key driver of the softening core inflation [3] - The impact of tariffs and immigration policies on prices has been minimal, with the CPI for goods rising only 0.2% month-on-month in September. Some companies have absorbed tariff costs, while others have fully passed on price increases [3][4] - Concerns about U.S. inflation are primarily held by the Federal Reserve, which has been cautious due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and immigration policies. However, recent data suggests these concerns may be overstated [4][5] Group 3 - Global inflation is on a downward trend, with the average global CPI year-on-year inflation rate at 3.3%, down from 4.5% a year ago. This decline has been consistent, with 80% of the time in the past 35 months showing decreasing rates [4] - The main drivers of this global deflation are emerging markets and developing economies, where core inflation has reached multi-decade lows. This global context may further lower prices for U.S. imports and service sector costs [4] - The theoretical impact of tariffs may not reflect in final consumer prices, as companies might absorb costs to maintain profit margins, which could increase the downward risk for labor markets and CPI inflation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The CITIC Machinery Industry experienced a decline of 5.21% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 24th among all primary industries in terms of performance [1][2]. Group 1: Machinery Industry Performance - The engineering machinery sector fell by 1.43%, general equipment by 7.20%, specialized equipment by 6.22%, instruments and meters by 4.45%, metal products by 6.04%, and transportation equipment by 1.66% during the same period [1][2]. Group 2: Engineering Machinery Insights - In September, excavator sales reached 19,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with domestic sales at 9,200 units (up 21.5%) and exports at 10,600 units (up 29%) [3]. - Loader sales were 10,500 units, reflecting a 30.5% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 5,100 units (up 25.6%) and exports at 5,500 units (up 35.3%) [3]. - The domestic market for engineering machinery is expected to continue recovering due to equipment renewal cycles and economic stabilization policies, supported by large-scale projects [3]. Group 3: Robotics and Semiconductor Equipment - Zhiyuan Robotics launched the new industrial-grade interactive robot, Zhiyuan Spirit G2, with over 100 million yuan in orders for its first batch delivery [4]. - The U.S. is considering tightening semiconductor export restrictions to China, which may accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's innovation and provide opportunities for local manufacturers [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies in engineering machinery include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic [6]. - In the general equipment sector, recommended companies include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and others in machine tools and cutting tools [6]. - For humanoid robots, focus on high-tech components with low domestic production rates, such as assemblies and sensors [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating competition and cooperation in advanced manufacturing between China and the US, particularly in the semiconductor, general aviation, and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors [6][11][18]. Semiconductor Industry - China is rapidly catching up in the semiconductor sector, focusing on self-sufficiency in AI chip production amidst a global supply chain heavily dominated by the US [2][19]. - The semiconductor industry has a complex global supply chain with multiple stages, where the US leads in high-value design and equipment, while China excels in manufacturing and testing [19][24]. - In terms of market share, China and the US together account for nearly 60% of global semiconductor sales, with the US holding a significant supply share of over 50% compared to China's less than 10% [22][24]. - China's semiconductor trade has been in a long-term deficit, with a projected deficit of $226.67 billion in 2024, while the US maintains a trade surplus of $10.25 billion [27][28]. - US semiconductor companies exhibit stronger fundamentals, with revenue and net profit significantly higher than their Chinese counterparts, and a return on equity (ROE) median approximately four times that of A-share companies [31][32]. General Aviation Industry - The US holds a first-mover advantage in the general aviation sector, while China is leveraging low-altitude economic policies to drive innovation and transformation [3][12]. - The global demand for general aviation aircraft is evenly distributed, with China and North America each accounting for about 20% of the market, but the US dominates supply with Boeing and Airbus [3][12]. - China's aerospace sector has a long-term trade deficit, while it is a leading exporter of drones [3][14]. - Current market performance shows that US aviation equipment companies outperform their Chinese counterparts in terms of scale and ROE [3][14]. Innovative Pharmaceuticals Industry - The US leads in the innovative pharmaceuticals sector, but Chinese companies are making significant strides in original innovation and international expansion [4][17]. - The pharmaceutical market share remains stable, with the US holding about 40% and China around 10%, primarily focusing on generic drugs [4][17]. - Both countries face trade deficits in pharmaceuticals, but Chinese innovative drug companies have accelerated their international presence, with increasing license-out revenues [4][19]. - US innovative pharmaceutical companies show better fundamentals, with many Chinese companies' valuations hovering around historical averages [4][20]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continuation of the mid-to-long-term technology market trends, with advanced manufacturing sectors like semiconductors, general aviation, and innovative pharmaceuticals presenting significant investment opportunities [7][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 69.60% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 40.26 billion yuan. However, the net profit growth of 13.04% is slower compared to revenue growth, primarily due to a substantial increase in minority shareholder losses [5][8]. - The company is positioned as a key player in the domestic computing chip market, with strong competitiveness in CPU and DCU series products. The performance is expected to remain stable due to the AI wave and domestic innovation initiatives [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a total profit of 12.00 billion yuan, a 31.00% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.60 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.04% increase [5][8]. - R&D expenses reached 10.88 billion yuan, up 59.35% year-on-year, while sales expenses surged by 159.98% to 1.28 billion yuan, indicating strong investment in product development and market expansion [8]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 14.21 billion yuan, 20.06 billion yuan, and 27.11 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.07 billion yuan, 4.51 billion yuan, and 6.21 billion yuan [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth rates projected at 55.1% for 2025 and 41.2% for 2026 [11]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 20, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 172.9X for 2025, 117.9X for 2026, and 85.6X for 2027, indicating a strong growth outlook despite high valuation multiples [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor and computing power industries are experiencing a positive trend, with strong market demand and ongoing institutional research into over 20 companies in the sector since the National Day holiday [1] Semiconductor Industry - The storage industry is benefiting from a structural shift in supply and demand driven by the AI wave, leading to high market prosperity [2] - Companies like Shanghai Beiling and Demingli reported advancements in storage products, with Demingli noting an overall price increase in the storage market and a focus on enhancing production capacity to meet demand [2] - Hengshuo Co. is optimistic about the NOR Flash market, expecting price increases in Q4 and actively developing advanced NOR Flash products [3] - Huicheng Co. plans to invest strategically in DRAM packaging through partnerships to expand its capabilities in the storage chip packaging sector [3] Computing Power Market - The demand for computing power remains strong, with companies reporting robust order books and business expansion [4] - Haiguang Information achieved a revenue of 4.026 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.60%, with a contract liability of 2.8 billion yuan indicating sustained customer demand [4] - Chip Origin Co. expects new orders of 1.593 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 145.80%, with AI-related orders making up about 65% [4][5] - Shunwang Technology has developed a stable computing power service capability, successfully launching innovative products to meet diverse computing needs [6] - Guangmai Technology is collaborating on a domestic computing power cluster project, achieving significant results and positive feedback from internet companies [6]

Core Insights - The current market downturn in A-shares, particularly in the technology sector, is viewed as a potential opportunity rather than a disaster, suggesting that panic selling may lead to missed investment chances [1] Group 1: Market Signals - Signal One: Despite significant declines in technology stocks, the trading volume has shrunk, indicating that this is not a sign of institutional selling but rather a period of observation ahead of quarterly earnings reports [3] - Signal Two: Many quality technology stocks have adjusted to their 20-day and 30-day moving averages, which are classic rebound support levels, suggesting a favorable entry point for both short-term and long-term investors [5] - Signal Three: The long-term trend remains strong, with the current asset securitization rate at approximately 75%, indicating that discussions about the end of the bull market may be premature [7] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For investors who have already positioned themselves, it is advisable to maintain a calm approach and consider taking some profits as a risk buffer while holding onto quality stocks [9] - New entrants should manage their positions carefully, keeping cash reserves to gradually increase their stakes after further market adjustments, focusing on "hard technology" sectors aligned with national strategies [9] - Investors lacking confidence may consider technology index funds to diversify risks, while those who prefer stock selection should conduct thorough valuation comparisons to identify potential growth stocks [9]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China is entering a critical phase of deepening reform and enhancing quality, with a focus on achieving high-quality development that aligns with national strategies and public expectations [3]. Industry Summary - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued an action plan for promoting high-quality development in public funds, which includes optimizing fee structures for actively managed equity funds, strengthening the alignment of interests between fund companies and investors, and enhancing the industry's ability to serve investors [3]. - The public fund industry is responding to the challenges of fee reforms by emphasizing performance-driven growth rather than relying on high fees for sustainability [4]. Company Summary - Huashang Fund has been deeply involved in the public fund industry for 20 years, focusing on enhancing its active management capabilities and prioritizing performance as a key driver for growth [3][4]. - The company is one of the first to participate in the pilot program for floating fee rate products, which aligns its interests with those of its investors [4]. - Huashang Fund emphasizes investor engagement, especially during market downturns, by promoting rational investment concepts and guiding investors to recognize value opportunities [4]. - The company aims to continue its active management strategy, leveraging research and performance to create sustainable returns for investors while contributing to the high-quality development of the Chinese economy [4].