面对这样一个放量突破的格局，明天我们该如何操作？ 帮主我给大家几点策略参考： 第一，珍视趋势，将"成交量"作为核心观察指标。明天市场的首要任务，是巩固今天的成果。重点观察 成交额能否稳定在2万亿级别，甚至温和放大。如果能，那么这波春季行情的基础就更为扎实；如果快 速缩量，则可能重回震荡。因此，量能是决定我们仓位进攻性的首要风向标。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。收盘了，不知道大家今天心情如何？我猜，如果手里握着科技股的朋友，感觉 应该不错。今天市场最大的看点，不是一个指数涨了多少，而是沉寂了半个多月的成交量，终于回来 了！两市成交额一口气冲上了2.05万亿元，这是时隔16个交易日后的首次突破，增量资金进场的脚步 声，这次听得是真真切切。 为什么说这个量能如此关键？它就像一场比赛里的发令枪。前期市场一直缺量，好比运动员都在起跑线 前蹲着，光摆姿势不发力。今天这超过3000亿的放量，就是那一声枪响。它表明，上周末那些鼓励"耐 心资本"入市、给券商"松绑"的政策暖风，开始实实在在地转化为一些机构的行动了。有真金白银进场 托底，市场的情绪和稳定性就会上一个台阶。 那么，钱流向了哪里？市场的选择极度分明，可以说是一场 "新与旧 ...

慎重声明：每一篇文章都是本人的分析日志，绝不构成投资操作建议，本文所有观点仅代表个人立场，仅供参考，切勿跟 从！ 今日行情不幸被老伍昨日言中，老伍在这里先抱歉一声。股指早盘一度高开让人惊喜，但很快便冲高回落，一路下杀。不 过对比看来，其中又有一些微妙不同的玄机。 上证指数下跌的幅度只有昨天阳线的一半，接近3850点，而3850点不过是此轮区间震荡的中轴线，深成指则与昨日低开的 开盘价近似平行，前途未卜。创业板则阴包阳，科创50也跌破过昨日最低的开盘价，明显表现出了继续下探之势。唯一一 个比较坚挺的要算是北证50了，图形虽不好看，下跌的空间却比较有限。 | | | | | | | 007 43 41 26 100 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 50.80 | | | | 本版 | -100.00% 李芳 | -121万 | | | | | | | | 37.69 | 662 | | | | | 46.38 | 47.50 | | 37.68 | 256 | | | | | | | | 37.67 | 341 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Shenzhen Composite Index, driven by the robust growth of technology stocks, particularly in the AI sector and other emerging industries [4]. Market Performance - The Shenzhen Composite Index reached a new high, outperforming the Shanghai market, with the ChiNext Index leading the three major indices due to strong performance in technology growth stocks [4]. - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.9% increase, indicating high overall market activity and participation enthusiasm [7]. Sector Analysis - Key sectors showing strength include CPO (light modules), liquid-cooled servers, AI applications, gaming and media, certain renewable energy stocks, and non-ferrous metals [5]. - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals, port shipping, oil and gas extraction, textiles, agriculture, home appliances, banking, liquor (baijiu), and real estate exhibited weak performance [5]. Capital Flow - There was a net outflow of funds from major players, while retail investors showed a net inflow, indicating a shift in investment strategies [8]. - Institutional investors are favoring technology and high-end manufacturing sectors driven by policy support and high economic activity, with significant capital flowing into power equipment, computer devices, and digital economy sectors [8]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment is at 75.85%, with a notable portion of investors increasing their positions (30.74%) while others are reducing their holdings (21.34%) [9][12]. - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism among retail investors, with many actively participating in the market despite the mixed performance of various sectors [9].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing volatility around the 3700-point level, which is considered a "no man's land" where profit-taking can lead to significant declines [1][4] - Historical comparisons show that previous bull markets have seen substantial pullbacks after reaching similar index levels, indicating potential for further fluctuations [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly from previous peaks, with current expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the tightening seen in 2021 [7][9] Group 2 - Domestic savings have increased significantly, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization rising from 1.18 in January 2021 to 1.73 in July 2025, suggesting that there is still room for market growth [9] - Sector performance varies, with some industries like telecommunications and transportation showing strong gains, while others like food and beverage have underperformed compared to previous bull markets [12][13][15] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.78, which is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting caution for investors [16][19] - The performance of major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext shows that while some sectors have seen growth, overall earnings have not kept pace with rising valuations, raising concerns about sustainability [22][24] Group 4 - Recent trading activity indicates a strong preference for technology and renewable energy sectors, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and solar energy, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods lag behind [43][50] - The market is characterized by a high degree of differentiation, making stock selection more challenging than in previous bull markets, with a recommendation for investors to consider broad-based indices for exposure [34][39]

01 应该说还是可能的，最大的底气是场外资金入市。 就是下面这张图，"居民储蓄存款 / 股票总市值"，历次熊市底部，这个指标在"2"附近，牛市顶部在"1"附 近。去年9月，这个指标曾超过2，现在是1.8。 还有这张图，2022-2023年的很多高息存款将在今年下半年到明年陆续到期。 现在的利率大家都知道，太低了，很多人可能看不上，那就要想办法找更好的投资方式。考虑到风险偏好， 这部分资金直接入市的可能性不高，但通过"固收+"等间接入市的可能性还是有的，会带来不少增量资金。 最近也看了一些研报，总结几个大家关心的点，系统说下~ （1）行情有没有可能走牛？ 总的来说， 我也统计了下， 要求：1）最新一期股票仓位超过5%；2）过去3年最大回撤不超过3%；3）过去3年收益率超过10%。 一共30只基金符合条件，这30只"低波固收+"基金过去4个季度的总份额分别是421、513、535、564亿份。虽 然验证不严谨，但高息存款到期后，借道"固收+"入市的逻辑是说得通的。 另外就是美联储降息+经济基本面触底。 2015年牛市中经济基本面也不行，但中美联手大放水，股市还是走牛了。2019-2020年的核心资产牛市，也 伴随 ...