证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 26 日 金属价格为何如此繁荣 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 3 期） 频率：每周 目前金属价格繁荣是供给逻辑的结果，新一轮技术革命的迹象越来越明显，那 么未来商品价格上涨可能会转换为需求逻辑，这意味着当前较弱的能源产品价 格也会重新进入上升通道。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 56 ——地方国资会议定调改革深 化，多元布局培育新质生产 力》2026-01-25 2、《地缘紧张此起彼伏——— 国际时政周评》2026-01-25 3、《开年投资呈现积极迹象— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 2 期）》2026-01-19 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1 月 26 日，以有色金属为代表的资源品价格继续创新高。其中，伦敦现货黄 金价格一度突破 5100 美元/盎 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transition of tech executives from large companies to startups, driven by the AI revolution and the limitations of traditional corporate structures [2][5][24] - It highlights the emergence of two waves of entrepreneurs: the "tech believers" focused on model development and the "business translators" who prioritize commercialization [17][20] Group 1: Reasons for Departure - Executives are leaving large firms due to structural conflicts between established corporate cultures and the innovative demands of AI development [5][9] - The rise of AI technologies, particularly the Transformer architecture, has prompted many to seek opportunities outside their companies, where they can pursue innovative projects without bureaucratic constraints [5][6] - The decision-making processes in large firms often hinder rapid innovation, leading talented individuals to pursue entrepreneurial ventures where they can explore new ideas more freely [11][12] Group 2: Characteristics of Departing Executives - The departing executives often possess deep technical knowledge and a strong understanding of AI, making them valuable assets in the startup ecosystem [17][25] - They have the ability to integrate resources and build teams, which is crucial for the collaborative nature of AI projects [25] - Their insights into industry needs and market demands position them well to identify and capitalize on new business opportunities [25][26] Group 3: Challenges Faced by Large Firms - Large companies struggle to retain talent due to lengthy decision-making processes and a culture that prioritizes risk minimization over opportunity maximization [10][11] - Despite offering attractive compensation packages, these firms fail to address the underlying issues related to organizational structure and innovation [10][12] - The inability to provide a conducive environment for experimentation and risk-taking further exacerbates talent retention challenges [12][13] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly favoring executives with backgrounds in major tech firms, viewing them as reliable indicators of potential success in the uncertain AI landscape [24][25] - The shift in investment focus reflects a broader trend where capital seeks to mitigate risks associated with new technologies by backing experienced leaders [24][26] - The emergence of a "hunting mechanism" among investors highlights the proactive approach to identifying and supporting promising talent from large companies [27][28]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot gold has first surpassed $5000 per ounce [4] - Silver and copper prices are expected to remain strong through 2026 due to global energy transition and AI revolution, with Silver as a key beneficiary [5][6] - Silver Company (601212) experienced a limit-up on January 26, 2023, closing at 11.41, reflecting a 2.57% increase [6] Group 2: Photovoltaics - Elon Musk announced plans to build 100GW of solar capacity over the next three years for data centers and space AI satellites [7] - JunDa Co. is positioned as the largest third-party supplier of N-type TOPCon solar cells, with a focus on overseas capacity and space photovoltaic applications [7][8] - JunDa Co. saw a price increase of up to 10.97% on January 22, 2023 [8] Group 3: Computing Power - Tencent's chairman Ma Huateng announced a cash activity of 1 billion yuan to promote AI applications, aiming to replicate the success of WeChat red envelopes [9] - QingCloud Technology is focusing on AI computing cloud services and has seen a price increase of 15.25% [10] - The outlook for computing power in 2026 suggests significant breakthroughs across various levels, with Dawei Technology experiencing a limit-up [17][18] Group 4: Natural Gas and Oil - U.S. natural gas prices surged past $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 due to winter storms [19] - International oil prices rose nearly 3%, benefiting companies like Intercontinental Oil and Gas, which saw a limit-up on January 26, 2023 [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - Intel is facing significant operational challenges despite initial optimism from government support and rising product demand, leading to a sharp decline in stock price after disappointing quarterly results [1][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - Intel's stock price surged by 120% over five months following President Trump's promise of nearly $9 billion in funding, but dropped 17% after revealing operational failures in meeting AI CPU demand [1][2]. - The company reported a loss exceeding $10 billion in its manufacturing business last year, exacerbated by the inability to capitalize on the AI data center CPU demand surge [7][11]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Intel has not secured customers for its next-generation 14A chip manufacturing technology, creating a "chicken or egg" dilemma where customer demand is needed to justify investment in new factories [4][11]. - The company has been unable to meet the sudden surge in orders for older CPU models due to prior capacity reductions, resulting in missed opportunities [5][9]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - CEO Lip-Bu Tan expressed disappointment over the company's failure to meet market demand, indicating a struggle to maintain production levels [6][12]. - Intel is attempting to cut costs by limiting spending on older technologies and delaying new factory investments, while also planning to increase capital expenditures for the 14A technology [8][11].

内蒙古 库布齐。图片来源：视觉中国 【编者按】 2026年冬季达沃斯论坛，马斯克提出，瓦特将取代货币成为未来财富的衡量单位，而中国凭借太阳能等可再生能源的海量产出，已占据先机。大洋另一侧， 现实却是，中国光伏业仍在一场产能过剩导致的全行业亏损中苦苦挣扎。 这个产业长期行走于光影之间——前方是能源与算力革命预示的光明前景，身后是过剩与内卷投下的漫长阴影。行业龙头之一——隆基绿能就是一个缩影。《财富》通 过连续数月对隆基、它的伙伴与对手、行业人士的深度采访，试图以它的故事为切片，讲述中国光伏业在这场能源终局降临之际的集体自救。 正午，内蒙古库布齐沙漠，太阳把沙子晒得发烫。 一大片深蓝色、离地数米高的光伏板矗立在大漠间，列队整齐，延绵数十公里不绝。从高处远眺，荒漠的粗糙质地被这些人造物近乎完美的镜面反射所取 代。视线下探，在光伏板投下的大片阴影中，青草在金属支架间摇摆。 这里是位于黄河"几"字弯南岸的中国第七大沙漠，它曾因风沙肆虐被称为 " 死亡之海 " 。 很难想象植物能在这里扎下根系，更违背直觉的是，这场生态 修复的发起者是一排排兀自扎于沙砾之间、与生命毫无关联的工业品。 十多年前，中国的光伏公司开始进入大漠深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 5% GDP growth in 2025 indicates a significant wealth reshuffling in 2026, driven primarily by the manufacturing and service sectors, despite a decline in real estate investment [2][7]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Structure - The growth in 2025 is supported by substantial increases in specific industries: New energy vehicles (+25.1%), industrial robots (+28.0%), and 3D printing equipment (+52.5%) [4]. - The contribution of the three industries to GDP growth is as follows: primary industry (3.9%), secondary industry (4.5%), and tertiary industry (5.4%) [5]. - The industrial value added for large-scale industries increased by 5.9%, with manufacturing value added at 6.4%, and high-tech manufacturing at 9.4% [6]. Group 2: Export Performance - In 2025, trade surplus reached a record high of $1.19 trillion, indicating strong demand for "Made in China" products despite global concerns about demand [8][9]. - The export growth is not limited to basic assembly products but includes high-end technology products such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, industrial robots, and AI hardware [12][13]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment - The GDP deflator index is -1.1%, indicating a deflationary environment, which aligns with consumer sentiment of stagnant income and job stability [16][19][21]. - The growth is characterized as structural rather than uniform, with some industries declining while others rise, leading to a mixed economic experience for individuals [23][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for economic transition, with 2026 likely marking a year of wealth structural differentiation [27][29]. - The upcoming AI revolution is expected to drive the next wave of growth, necessitating strategic participation in emerging sectors [43][45]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and avoid traditional asset reliance, as the market will not experience uniform growth [66][80].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tariff dispute surrounding Greenland is expected to weaken the market but simultaneously presents a good opportunity for investors to position themselves in leading tech stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The market is experiencing weakness due to widespread concerns over the tariff debate between the US and Europe, leading to a sluggish pre-market performance for US stocks [1]. - Analysts believe that the current political tensions will ultimately ease, similar to past situations, and the tariff threats will diminish as negotiations progress [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The rise in risk aversion has particularly impacted AI concept stocks, putting pressure on the tech sector, but this is viewed as an excellent time for investors to acquire leading tech stocks for 2026 and beyond [1]. - The upcoming strong Q4 earnings season for tech giants is anticipated, with capital expenditures for US tech companies reaching $550 billion this year, driving a new growth cycle in the AI revolution [1]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The US has reportedly surpassed China in the tech race for the first time in 30 years, with major US tech firms like Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, Google, AMD, and Amazon becoming key drivers of the current AI revolution [2]. - Analysts recommend increasing positions in several AI stocks, including Nvidia, Microsoft, Palantir, and Tesla, as the political drama surrounding tariffs offers another opportunity to invest in leading tech companies [2]. Group 4: Political Context - President Trump is scheduled to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, where discussions on the tariff issue and its implications for global trade are expected to be a central topic [2]. - The US Treasury Secretary has urged European nations not to retaliate against the US tariffs related to the Greenland issue [3].

Market Analysis - On January 19, the market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering to 4100 points, ending a four-day decline, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.7%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. Investment in Power Grid - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period amounts to 4 trillion yuan, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, indicating a new phase of rapid growth in China's power grid construction. This investment aims to enhance energy transition, build a new power system, and ensure energy security [6][10]. - The investment structure focuses on smart upgrades of distribution networks, with significant allocations for ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects, which are expected to reach 800 billion yuan, more than doubling from the previous plan [7]. - The distribution network is projected to receive 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 63% of total investments, driven by the need for large-scale integration of renewable energy and urban-rural network upgrades [9]. Company Insights - Dalian Electric Porcelain, a leader in high-voltage porcelain insulators, holds a market share of approximately 50% in the domestic ultra-high voltage projects. The company is expected to see significant growth in overseas markets, with a projected increase in overseas sales to 35%-40% of total revenue by 2026 [12][14]. - Zhongdian Port, a top electronic component distributor, reported a revenue of 50.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 33.29% year-on-year increase. The company is focusing on AI and computing sectors, with a notable growth in its AI-related revenue [17][20]. Liquid Methane Technology - Shudao Equipment is a leader in deep cooling technology, focusing on the liquefaction and storage of gases at extreme low temperatures. The company has secured substantial orders in the field of rocket-grade liquid methane, which is becoming a preferred fuel for next-generation reusable rockets due to its clean combustion and cost-effectiveness [23][25]. - Liquid methane offers advantages such as low maintenance costs and ease of sourcing, making it a competitive alternative to traditional rocket fuels [26].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 近日，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷在一场线上对话中阐述了对当前宏观趋势、AI革命、后续市场机 会的核心观点，并给出了普通投资者如何进行资产配置的建议。 他认为，当前正处于以AI为代表的"第四次工业革命"这一长周期的初期， AI的级别，比互联网级别要高得多， 这一轮AI革命，才刚刚开始，好戏还在后面。 对于AI"泡沫论"， 他认为现在的AI公司，市盈率也不高，也就是四五十倍， 这么低的市盈率来描述这么一个伟大的时代，大家还是太谨慎了。 "当市场都在谈论AI泡沫的时候，可能离泡沫还比较远， 大家都不谈这个事情的时候，倒是要小心一些。" 当然同时，他也提醒，即便非常看好AI时代，但是大波动也是难以避免的， 不过如果扛过去的话，问题也不大， 只要你找到的公司是好公司，是能够经得起时间考验的。 针对房地产市场，李迅雷指出，其下行周期或非短期可结束，需敬畏趋势力量。 在资产配置上，他持续看好黄金， 原因在于两个，一是货币贬值，另外一方面是避险。 从30年前到现在，货币规模增加了30多倍。 但是各国央行持有黄金的规模，现在大概是11. ...

2026年开年，A股"春季躁动"行情启动，商业航天、脑机接口、半导体等板块轮番演绎，人形机器人、创新药概念股持续活跃。市场活跃 背景下，全市场寻找"最锋利的矛"，弹性较高的投资工具吸引短期资金竞相追逐。 在市场躁动行情中，银华智享混合型基金拟任基金经理方建表示，投资中既要打造"锋利的矛"，也要搭配控制回撤、降低波动的"盾"，收 益稳健、回撤较小、可以持续给客户赚钱的产品，以及集成电路等细分行业专家管理的主题基金，或是比较符合投资者需求的两类产品， 这也是他在产品线关注的重要方向。 落实到投资方法上，他会在全市场精选成长股，重点寻找未来3至5年业绩增长突出、确定性强的优质行业或赛道，从中选出已经走出来 的"从1到N"且距离天花板还有足够空间的核心龙头公司并长期持有，力争获取优质成长股业绩增长带来的长期回报。 在他看来， 学习 查理• 芒格"买入好行业里面的好公司并长期持有"，这个投资框架大道至简，但由于过往A股市场情绪波动较大，在坚持 正确的投资理念背景下，还需要兼顾投资者体验，才能长期陪伴投资者，力争让投资者能够享受到成长股投资的长期较好回报。 充分发挥成长股进攻性优势 兼顾绝对收益运作 方建，清华大学材料学 ...