美国财政部长贝森特称，尚未看到今天的CPI数据，不会过分强调一份通胀数字，重要的是关注趋势， 通胀并未加速。 ...

黄金走势实时分析中 黄金横盘整理，今晚CPI数据会有回调风险吗？是否会出现急速下跌？实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析 中，点击马上观看！ 相关链接 ...

如何寻找金银最佳进场？ 晚间CPI数据万众瞩目，金银等待的契机来了吗？如何寻找最佳进场？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析 中，点击进入直播间 相关链接 ...

经济学家：关税对通胀的影响没那么快全部显现 需关注几类商品价格是否上涨 金十数据7月15日讯，前美国财政部金融经济学家Kevin Jacques表示，到目前为止，美国企业的囤货行 为使关税对通胀的影响部分被吸收。但有些商品难以囤积，比如食品。需密切关注进口水果和蔬菜的成 本是否在悄悄上涨。彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员Jed Kolko将更密切地关注核心商品的价格，比 如汽车、电脑、洗碗机和服装等商品，这可能是关税对价格影响表现最强烈的地方。 瑞银经济学家 Alan Detmeister表示，可能在未来一个月或者几个月内都看不到通胀显著上涨。如果到9月CPI数据公 布时（即10月份）还没有看到价格上涨，那将会是一个相当大的意外。但是，若6月CPI数据确实回 升，市场也应该对此持保留态度，不应过分关注任何宏观经济数据中单月的波动。 ...

实时黄金订单流分析 相关链接 聚焦今夜CPI数据！黄金多空如何博弈？当下行情订单流给出什么信号？阿汤哥正在实时分析，点击观 看 ...

Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

山海：黄金进入高位震荡中，关注CPI数据影响！ 上个交易日的市场表现不是很亮眼，没有什么重点消息面公布，我们可以从市场表现来看，多空双发均欲走出力度，其中，多头延续上 周五的力度多次走高至3375不破，空头则借机美盘市场走出较大调整空间，最低在3341附近，全盘上下有30多美金力度，不过整体来 看，还是多头表现，下跌力度不大，上涨空间不足，所以，整体是一个高位震荡表现。白银的表现就比较明显了，在连续上涨中走高至 39附近，美盘出现大跌至38.1，山海提示过大家周一不做白银的交易，观察为主，周二就要看这波白银是否可以做中长线空单，当然最 好是等今晚CPI数据公布后再确定。 本周行情的节奏要注意两点，第一多头是否延续，第二调整力度有多大，多头延续的话，上方就看3400得失，调整力度过大就要注意见 顶后的回落。周一黄金暂时三次不破3375，看来市场在3375这里有强压作用，所以，周二也要关注这个点位得失。周二重点行情在美 盘，亚欧盘预计有一个震荡上涨的空间，美盘公布cpi数据后再看多空的选择性，这就是上面说的看多头是否延续，或者空头开始调整。 从技术面来看，其实日线周期的上涨还没有走完，日线周期至少还要等一波上涨， ...

Economic Data - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread narrowing [1] - China's exports in June, measured in USD, grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.1% [1] - Rare earth exports reached the highest level since 2009, iron ore imports hit a year-to-date high, and steel exports in Q2 set a record [1] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index barely rose as investors awaited US inflation data [1] - Bitcoin experienced a pullback after reaching a new high [1] - Crude oil prices fell by 3% [1] Trade Relations - The EU is preparing to impose counter-tariffs on US goods worth 720 billion euros [1] - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if a peace agreement regarding Ukraine is not reached within 50 days [1] Corporate Developments - Elon Musk announced that a "monumental" demonstration of the next-generation Optimus robot is expected by the end of the year [1] - Meta is planning to invest hundreds of billions to build the world's largest data center and is considering shifting from open-source to closed-source [1] Upcoming Data Releases - China is set to release significant GDP data on Tuesday, while the US will announce June CPI data on the same day [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent short-term pullback in silver prices and how to identify entry points for short positions [1] - It highlights that the technical uptrend remains intact, emphasizing the importance of trading rhythm ahead of CPI data [1] - The article notes that ETF purchases exceeded one million ounces in a single day, indicating a resurgence of market activity reminiscent of January's price disparity crisis [1] Group 2 - A volatility warning is issued, indicating a 36% increase in prices that conceals a significant accumulation of short positions [1] - The article suggests that this level of volatility could trigger a "long-short squeeze" in the market [1]

Market Overview - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Trump's tariff policy providing safe-haven support for gold prices, while a strong dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields limit its upward potential [1] - The complex signals from the U.S. labor market and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts add further uncertainty to gold price trends [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within the current range, with a significant breakthrough above $3,400 being challenging unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical or trade tensions [1] - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI data on July 15 and the Federal Reserve's policy direction, as these factors will provide clearer guidance for future gold price movements [1] Gold Price Analysis - Gold experienced minimal fluctuations, primarily trading within the $3,310-$3,330 range, with a noted drop to $3,310 before rebounding [2] - The daily chart shows two consecutive small bullish candles, with gold still operating below the mid-band, indicating a relatively bullish trend despite the current position [2] - The hourly chart indicates that gold is currently around $3,327, with upward movement supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and bullish indicators suggesting a preference for long positions [2] Trading Recommendations - A recommendation to buy gold at $3,314-$3,317 with a stop loss at $3,309 and a take profit target of $3,330-$3,335 [3] - A recommendation to sell gold at $3,342-$3,345 with a stop loss at $3,350 and a take profit target of $3,325 [3]