Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 32,000 JPY, corresponding to approximately 25 times FY26E PE [5][17][21]. Core Views - Tokyo Electron is Japan's largest and the world's fourth-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer, with leading positions in various sectors such as coating and developing, etching, deposition, cleaning, and probe stations. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing global semiconductor investment expansion, particularly in emerging fields driven by generative AI and advanced logic chips [5][17][21]. - The company has a strong market presence, with a 92% market share in the coating and developing sector, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the structural growth in demand for advanced processes in the semiconductor industry [5][17][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic 1: Benefiting from Structural Expansion in China's Advanced Process Demand - Tokyo Electron has significantly benefited from high capital expenditure in China's semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced processes like DRAM and logic chips. The company's revenue from mainland China is expected to grow by 24.8% year-on-year in FY25, maintaining its position as the largest market [6][18]. - Despite a projected 7% decline in the overall scale of the Chinese semiconductor market in CY25, demand for advanced process equipment is expected to structurally increase, allowing the company to maintain stable revenue growth in China [6][18]. Investment Logic 2: Benefiting from the Growth of High-End Equipment Demand Driven by Generative AI in the U.S. - In FY25, Tokyo Electron's revenue outside mainland China is projected to grow by 39.3%, with North America experiencing a significant 44.5% year-on-year increase. This growth is attributed to the ongoing investments in advanced semiconductor processes driven by U.S. semiconductor policies [7][19]. - The company holds a competitive edge in low-temperature etching and HBM wafer bonding technology, positioning it well to benefit from the expansion of advanced manufacturing in the U.S. [7][19]. Differentiated Market Perspective - While there are concerns about potential long-term declines in market share in China due to domestic semiconductor equipment initiatives, the report argues that Tokyo Electron has established a global supply chain capable of meeting regulatory and customer requirements, which will help maintain its market share in China [8][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Tokyo Electron's revenue will reach 2,431.6 billion JPY in FY25, marking a 32.8% year-on-year increase, with net profit expected to grow by 49.5% to 544.1 billion JPY. The company is projected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with revenue growth rates of 8%/11%/11% and net profit growth rates of 9.8%/10.8%/11.6% for FY26/27/28 [9][27]. - The SPE new equipment business is anticipated to be the main revenue driver, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue in FY25, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.6% [9][27].

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO applications of domestic GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit, have reignited discussions about the challenges and potential of the domestic GPU industry, particularly regarding the high costs and the need for substantial investment to achieve profitability [1][3][4][5]. Group 1: IPO Developments - Both Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit have had their IPO applications accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant step for the domestic GPU sector [1][3]. - Muxi plans to raise 3.9 billion yuan, while Moore Threads aims to raise 8 billion yuan through their IPOs [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Muxi's projected net losses from 2022 to 2024 are 777 million yuan, 871 million yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan, with R&D expenditures of 647.8 million yuan, 699 million yuan, and 900 million yuan respectively [4]. - Moore Threads anticipates net losses of 1.84 billion yuan, 1.673 billion yuan, and 1.492 billion yuan over the same period, with R&D costs of 1.116 billion yuan, 1.334 billion yuan, and 1.359 billion yuan [5]. - Despite the losses, both companies are seeing revenue growth, with Muxi's revenue projected to reach 743 million yuan by 2024, and Moore Threads expecting 438 million yuan in the same year [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic GPU market is characterized by high competition, with various players adopting different strategies, including those aligned with NVIDIA and AMD technologies [12][14]. - The GPU industry is heavily reliant on R&D investments, with companies needing to continue funding their development efforts to remain competitive [21][22]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The AI sector is identified as a significant growth area for GPUs, with the market for AI chips in China projected to grow substantially, indicating a promising future for domestic GPU manufacturers [25][26]. - The competitive landscape is expected to undergo consolidation, as many players vie for market share, suggesting that mergers and acquisitions may become more common [26][27].

Core Insights - The article highlights that MediaTek has once again topped the average salary rankings for non-managerial full-time employees in Taiwan for 2024, with an average salary of 4.31 million TWD, marking a 14.8% increase from the previous year [1][2] Salary Rankings - MediaTek leads the salary rankings among all listed companies, being the only company with an average salary exceeding 4 million TWD [1] - Among all listed companies, there are 9 companies with average salaries over 3 million TWD for non-managerial employees, with 8 of them being in the semiconductor industry [1][2] - The top 10 salary list includes companies from various sectors, but the semiconductor industry dominates, with 7 out of 10 being IC design companies [1] Salary Growth - The highest salary growth in the top ten is seen in Ruiding, with a 33.53% increase, followed by Dafa at 27.35% and Realtek at 24.33% [1][2] - TSMC also reported a significant salary increase of 19.32% [1][2] Median Salary Insights - In terms of median salary, MediaTek again ranks first with a median of 3.438 million TWD, followed by Realtek at 3.246 million TWD and Dafa at 3.049 million TWD [4][5] - Only three companies have a median salary exceeding 3 million TWD, indicating a concentration of high salaries within these firms [4] Notable Trends - The only non-semiconductor company in the median salary top 10 is Evergreen Marine, which ranks tenth with a median salary of 2.415 million TWD [5] - Evergreen Marine also recorded the highest growth in median salary at 71.28%, followed by Dafa at 29.91% and Realtek at 25.18% [5]

Summary of Rambus Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Rambus - **Industry**: Semiconductors, specifically focusing on memory technologies and silicon IP Key Points Demand Environment - Rambus experienced strong demand in the server market, particularly for AI servers, leading to a 52% growth in product revenue compared to the same quarter last year [3][4] - The silicon IP business is also seeing increased demand as companies develop custom chips for AI applications [3] Market Size and Growth - The market for RCD (Register Clock Driver) chips is estimated at $750 million, with an additional $600 million from new companionship chips introduced in DDR5 memory modules [6][7] - The overall market is expanding due to increased bandwidth and capacity requirements driven by AI and traditional servers [9][10] Competitive Dynamics - Rambus holds a market share of over 40% in RCD chips, with a goal to reach 50% [12][14] - The company has invested early in product development, which has helped secure its position in the market [14] Product Development and Innovations - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has necessitated the development of new chips, including power management and temperature sensors, which Rambus is actively pursuing [37][39] - Rambus is also developing MRDIMM chipsets, which will double memory capacity and bandwidth, with a ramp expected in 2026 [42][44] Silicon IP Business - The silicon IP business is projected to grow at 10% to 15% annually, driven by demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) controllers [54] - Rambus is engaged with customers 18 months to 2 years ahead of product launches, ensuring they meet market needs [51][53] Financial Outlook - Rambus aims for a long-term gross margin target of 60% to 65%, with recent performance in the range of 61% to 63% [56] - The company is focused on maintaining margins through disciplined pricing and cost savings [57] Tariffs and Market Risks - Rambus's patent licensing business is unaffected by tariffs, providing a solid revenue base of $210 million with 100% margin [29][30] - The company is monitoring potential indirect impacts from supply chain shifts due to tariffs but currently reports no direct effects [32][34] Future Opportunities - The company anticipates growth in the client market as high-end PCs increasingly require advanced signal integrity solutions [46][48] - Rambus is prepared to adapt to market changes, including potential developments in LPDDR solutions for servers [20][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape includes two main competitors, Montage and Renaissance, with Rambus focusing on securing supply chain stability [15] - The company is actively involved in industry standards discussions through JEDEC, ensuring alignment with market needs [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Rambus conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and future growth opportunities.

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas to focus on in June include safety regulation policies, supply chain changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [1][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of June 1, the average price tracking 100 chemical products showed that 23 products increased in price, 45 decreased, and 32 remained stable. The month-on-month average price changes were 26.73% up, 63.00% down, and 10.27% stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included hydrochloric acid (up 31% in the Yangtze River Delta) and TDI, while those with the largest decreases included soft foam polyether and liquid chlorine [9][32] Oil and Gas Market - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude futures closing at $60.79 per barrel (down 1.20%) and Brent crude at $63.90 per barrel (down 1.36%). The U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.47 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. Gasoline and distillate demand in the U.S. has increased, with total refined oil demand averaging 19.89 million barrels per day, down 0.2% year-on-year [9][10] Chlorantraniliprole Industry - The chlorantraniliprole industry has experienced capacity damage, with the largest producer, Youdao Chemical, having a production capacity of 11,000 tons. The market supply has significantly reduced, and current inventory levels are low due to previous market conditions. The price for chlorantraniliprole is expected to rise to 250,000-280,000 yuan per ton in the short term [9][10] Acrylic Acid Market - The price of acrylic acid has decreased, with the average market price at 7,050 yuan per ton, down 8.44% from the previous week. Supply has increased due to the resumption of production in Shandong, while downstream demand remains cautious [9][10] Investment Recommendations - As of June 1, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 21.66, at the 58.33% historical percentile. The oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 10.81, at the 13.47% historical percentile. Key investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, rapid development in downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand due to policy support [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% in value added from January to April 2025, outperforming the overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing sectors by 4.9 and 1.5 percentage points respectively [1] - In April, the electronic information manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in value added [1] - Key product outputs from January to April include 105 million microcomputer devices (up 4.7% year-on-year), 454 million mobile phones (down 6.8% year-on-year), and 150.9 billion integrated circuits (up 5.4% year-on-year) [1] Group 2 - Export statistics for January to April show that 43.84 million notebook computers were exported (down 0.4% year-on-year), 22.4 million mobile phones (down 7.1% year-on-year), and 106.3 billion integrated circuits (up 20% year-on-year) [1]

Group 1 - Samsung Electronics' foundry division has secured orders for 7nm and 8nm processes from AI chip design companies, including Nintendo, improving capacity utilization [1] - Samsung's 3nm process is facing challenges, with a yield rate around 50%, while TSMC has achieved over 90% yield, raising concerns about Samsung's competitiveness in advanced processes [1][2] - Major clients like Google are shifting from Samsung's 3nm process to TSMC, indicating a loss of trust in Samsung's foundry capabilities due to yield issues [2] Group 2 - Apple, Qualcomm, NVIDIA, and MediaTek are adopting TSMC's third-generation 3nm process, with plans to transition to 2nm starting in 2026 [2] - The semiconductor industry emphasizes the importance of trust between foundries and clients, and Samsung's yield problems have led to skepticism about its foundry business [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on current valuations and expected demand recovery [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry showed a year-on-year recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit increasing by 5.58% and 13.33%, respectively [4][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's performance remains stable despite short-term fluctuations in oil prices, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit [27][33]. - The report highlights that the construction projects in the basic chemical sector experienced a negative growth for the first time in five years, indicating potential challenges ahead [20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 534.57 billion yuan and a net profit of 34.26 billion yuan, marking the first year-on-year growth in nearly three years [4][5]. - The oil and petrochemical sector reported total revenue of 1,931.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.78% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 6.35% [27][30]. Profitability Metrics - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin improved to 16.91% and 6.63%, respectively, with a return on equity (ROE) of 1.85% [11][45]. - The oil and petrochemical sector maintained a gross margin of 19.19% and a net margin of 5.74%, with a slight decrease in ROE to 2.82% [33][38]. Sub-industry Performance - Among 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector, 22 reported revenue growth, with significant increases in other chemical raw materials (+29.08%) and compound fertilizers (+25.84%) [4][10]. - The oilfield services segment within the oil and petrochemical sector saw a robust net profit growth of 29.82% [27][31]. Construction and Investment Trends - The basic chemical sector's construction projects totaled 363.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.04% year-on-year decrease, the first negative growth in five years [20][23]. - The oil and petrochemical sector's construction projects increased by 8.23% to 582.72 billion yuan, indicating ongoing investment despite revenue declines [40][41]. Market Valuation - As of May 11, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the basic chemical sector was 21.92, and for the oil and petrochemical sector, it was 10.58, both indicating low historical valuations [1][23].

以下文章来源于傅里叶的猫 ，作者小小 傅里叶的猫 . 芯片EDA大厂资深工程师，半导体AI行业解读及研报分享 申请入围"中国IC独角兽" 是说芯语，欢迎关注分享 美国或设 GPU 内存带宽上限 1.7-1.8TB/s，若如此英伟达 H20 可能弃用 HBM 内存改用 GDDR6，降级 版 H20 性能仍可能强于使用 GDDR6 的游戏 GPU，如RTX5090D。 今天又看到另一篇研报，是广发海外的一个分析，认为该 GPU可能命名为 6000D，即 B40，极有可能 在 7 月初发布，其搭载的 GDDR7 速率约为 1.7TB/s（对比 H20 的 4TB/s）。在 NVLink 单向速度约 550GB/s 及 CUDA 的支持下，广发预计到 2025 年底出货量将达约 100 万片。 对于很多没有公布的数据，我们都要结合多家的报告来看，因为每家的分析可能多多少少有些不同的地 方。就像我们上篇文章中提到的华为昇腾系列2025年出货量调研的文章，几家机构给出的数据都是在 70w~85w之间，而在IDC的一个分析中，提到2024年华为昇腾的出货量已经达到了64万，那按正常的增 长速度，加上H20被禁，今年绝对不会 ...