A divided Federal Reserve meets this week to decide whether to cut interest rates, the US central bank’s last meeting before the end of a tumultuous year.The US central bank faces a number of unique challenges as it weighs its latest interest-rate decision.After the six-week government shutdown briefly shuttered the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that collects economic data on prices and employment, Fed officials have less data to make their decision.Making matters more complicated is what a ...

Group 1 - Bank of America predicts commodities will be the hottest investment choice in 2026, driven by economic "tailwinds" that will enhance performance [1] - The "run it hot" strategy suggests that tax cuts and interest rate reductions will stimulate economic growth, supporting strong performance in commodities despite some negative data [1][2] - Commodities are expected to yield significant returns in 2025, particularly metals and energy, which are key investment areas in the AI data center boom [2] Group 2 - Industrial stocks focused on commodities have risen 17% since January, while utility and energy stocks have increased by 15% and 7% respectively this year [4] - Factors supporting the sustained momentum in commodities include Trump's economic policies, which are expected to further stimulate growth [6] - The appeal of commodities has grown due to excessive fiscal spending, making them outperform traditional safe-haven assets like bonds [6] - Globalization is fracturing, with geopolitical conflicts and supply chain issues potentially boosting commodity demand as they are often transported and used as raw materials [6] - Higher inflation expectations may lead to rising prices for commodities like gold, which has increased by 60% this year, marking its best performance since the 1970s [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policy is negatively impacting domestic businesses and consumer confidence, leading to increased prices and reduced production speed [1][2] - A seafood factory in Georgia has reduced its operating days from five to four due to rising costs of essential supplies like fish, olive oil, and steel cans caused by tariffs [1] - Despite government officials denying the link between tariffs and rising prices, the effects on consumers are becoming increasingly evident, with significant price increases in durable goods reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis [1] Group 2 - A monthly survey from the University of Michigan indicates that high prices and declining incomes have further depressed consumer confidence in November [2] - 25% of American respondents believe it is a good time to make large purchases, anticipating continued price increases through 2026, leading to a rush in buying items like computer parts and coffee [2]

Group 1 - Canada's unemployment rate dropped to a 16-month low of 6.5% in November, driven primarily by a significant increase in part-time jobs, with a net addition of 53,600 jobs for the month, totaling 181,000 since September [1][10][43] - The increase in part-time labor was concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, while government immigration policies contributed to a reduced labor force size, impacting the unemployment rate [1][34] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 15-24) improved, decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November, marking the first significant improvement this year [2][34] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for formal employees remained steady at a 4% year-over-year growth in November, a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Bank of Canada [2][35] - Following the employment data release, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and market expectations for the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates at 2.25% increased to approximately 93% [2][11][35] - The strong labor market data has diminished the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026, with economists suggesting that discussions about rate hikes may be premature due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies [10][44] Group 3 - In the U.S., consumer spending growth slowed to 0.3% in September, reflecting weakened economic momentum amid high living costs and a sluggish labor market [3][36] - The PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the largest year-over-year increase since April 2024, driven by rising energy prices [4][38] - Economic forecasts indicate that consumer spending may remain robust in the third quarter, supporting overall economic growth, despite expectations of a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter [4][39] Group 4 - The Canadian real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with October home sales rebounding, indicating that lower interest rates are beginning to support the housing sector [10][44] - Analysts predict that national home prices, which fell by approximately 3.2% this year, are expected to rise by an average of 1.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10][44] - The Canadian government has committed to investing CAD 280 billion over the next five years, with CAD 25 billion allocated for housing, to alleviate supply constraints [10][44]

Group 1 - New Zealand's economy is under dual pressure from a stagnant real estate market and weaker-than-expected government fiscal conditions, with the national median residential value remaining flat at 806,561 NZD in November, down 0.73% year-on-year [1][42] - The high-end real estate markets are showing signs of weakness, particularly in Auckland, where prices fell by 0.24% in November and have decreased by 2.20% year-to-date, while Queenstown's median price, exceeding 1.56 million NZD, dropped by 0.61% in November [1][42] - The New Zealand Treasury reported that core tax revenue for the first four months of the fiscal year was 39.5 billion NZD, 600 million NZD below expectations, primarily due to weaker corporate and personal tax revenues [43] Group 2 - The total expenditure of 48.5 billion NZD was only slightly above expectations by about 200 million NZD, but the operational deficit, excluding ACC, reached 4.9 billion NZD, exceeding the May budget forecast by approximately 700 million NZD [2][43] - The only positive aspect noted was that the government's net debt as a percentage of GDP was 42.8%, slightly lower than expected [2]

Americans continue to struggle under the weight of crushing debt. Consumers owed an average of $104,755 as of mid-2025 — down slightly from $105,580 a year earlier — according to credit bureau Experian. (1) But debt burdens vary sharply by age. Here’s the average balance breakdown by generation, and the change from 2024: Must Read Gen Z: $34,328, +7.8% Millennials: $132,280, +1.6% Gen X: $158,105, -0.8% Baby boomers: $92,619, -2.1% Silent generation: $38,460, -1.1% These numbers reflect all types ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation in the euro zone is facing downside risks in the medium term, despite price growth returning to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, as stated by ECB policymaker Olli Rehn [1] Group 1 - The euro zone's inflation has returned to the ECB's target of 2% [1] - There are medium-term downside risks to inflation in the euro zone [1]

核心PCE物价指数是衡量美国民间消费通胀的关键指标，于2002年被美联储的决策机构联邦公开市场委 员会采纳为衡量通货膨胀的一个主要指标。从隔夜市场表现看，美股三大股指集体上涨，核心PCE物价 指数降温一定程度上提振了市场对美联储下周再次宣布降息的预期。CME美联储观察工具显示，市场 预计美联储在12月货币政策会议上降息25个基点的概率已升至87%。 在通胀有所降温的同时，从近期美联储官员表态来看，其普遍更加看重就业市场走弱的风险。华安证券 认为，第三方机构的高频数据均指向就业市场进一步走弱，给降息提供了一定支撑。但结合10月美联储 议息会议纪要中其官员对后续降息存在较大分歧，预计12月美联储大概率采取"鹰派"降息，并对后续降 息路径的态度更加谨慎，同时需要关注12月末美国总统特朗普可能宣布的下一任美联储主席人选。 北京时间12月5日晚，美联储最关注的通胀指标——PCE物价指数出炉，其被视为影响美联储本月利率 政策的重要变量之一。数据显示，美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上升2.8%，低于预期和前值（均为 2.9%）；环比上升0.2%，与市场预期和前值保持一致。 ...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge slowed down on an annual basis for the first time since April, BEA data for September showed. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, ran at a 2.8% annual pace in September, a deceleration from August's 2.9% rate. Monthly core inflation came in at 0.2%, in line with August's numbers. Fed officials should be able to focus on the wavering labor market and cut interest rates by another quarter percentage point at their final meeting of the year next week, thanks ...

Inflation Data Summary - The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed little change in September, with prices rising 0.3% from August, the same increase as the previous month [1] - Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in September, matching the previous month's pace, which would align inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target if sustained [2] - Overall prices increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly up from 2.7% in August, while core prices also rose 2.8%, a small decline from 2.9% the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - The data suggests muted core inflation in September, supporting the case for a potential interest rate cut by the Fed at its upcoming meeting [3] - Despite inflation being above the 2% target, weak hiring and modest economic growth are expected to gradually reduce price gains in the coming months [3] - Consumer spending grew by 0.3% in September, a decrease from 0.5% in August, indicating that Americans are still willing to spend despite high prices and stagnant hiring [6] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates an increase in consumer spending during Black Friday and the following weekend, with online spending rising by 7.7% compared to the same period last year [7] - Incomes rose by 0.4% in September for the second consecutive month, contributing to consumer spending capacity [8]