美国银行基金经理调查：积极的中美贸易降级防止了经济衰退/信贷事件。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - **Trade Policies**: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - **Central Bank Statements**: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].

作 者丨高江虹 周蕊 向秀芳 编 辑丨和佳 刘雪莹 视 频丨许婷婷 柳润瑛 美国政府挑起的关税战，究竟对美国经济带来怎样的冲击？ 2 1世纪经济报道在美国一线港口观察到的情况，可以侧面印证。 作为美国第一大和第二大集装箱港口， 洛杉矶港和长滩港的装卸量占全美总量的 4 0%。 也 就 是 说 ， 美 国 有 四 成 的 进 出 口 货 物 是 在 洛 杉 矶 这 两 大 港 口 装 卸 的 ， 每 天 的 繁 忙 程 度 可 想 而 知。贯穿洛杉矶市的南北大通道7 1 0号公路，其中一头连接着这两大港口，原本每天早晚被无 数的大货车堵得满满当当，但如今，7 1 0公路上跑的多是小轿车，鲜有大货车出现。为什么？ 因为港口没有那么多货物要运送了。 他提醒，市场当前所面临的不仅是数据分化，更是政策逻辑与资本流动趋势的系统重构。在 此背景下，美元指数在1 0 0附近寻求企稳，而黄金价格则在避险需求与收益率调整之间震荡上 行，反映出市场对中长期不确定性的持续定价。 Ca r d ill o还认为， 联储继续观望或将持续至9月。 Ca r d ill o强调，在关税、利率和经济预期之 间寻找平衡，将成为未来数月全球资产定 ...

图片来源：DaniloAndjus / Getty Images 从摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）到美国资管公司阿波罗（Apollo）的经济学家均发出预警：美国或将出现经 济衰退。鉴于此，美国民众正将资金托付给更加稳健的政府——瑞士，并在那里大规模开设投资账户、 抢购黄金。 瑞士咨询公司Alpen Partners International首席执行官皮埃尔·加布里斯在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC） 新闻采访时表示："可谓是接踵而至"。 自特朗普对国际贸易挥舞关税大棒以来，美国经济陷入混乱。在4月2日这个其自称的"解放日"，特朗普 宣布对所有美国进口商品征收10%的基准关税。受惊的投资者迅速抛售股票和美债，导致全球股市市值 蒸发10万亿美元。随后在4月9日，特朗普宣布"暂缓"征收部分关税。 不同于在低谷抛售或试图进行波段操作的策略，美国富豪们正在多元化其投资组合，并押注全球最安全 稳定的经济体：瑞士。 瑞士缘何吸引美国富豪 瑞士百达银行（Pictet）向美国全国广播公司透露，其在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）注册的瑞士实体 机构迎来了客户咨询量的"显著增长"。 受益于客户"去美国化"的投资策略，Alpen ...

此外，高盛还指出，资本支出趋势也呈现出分化。尽管像谷歌这样的公司重申了其支出计划，Meta Platforms也上调了其资本支出指引，但整体资本支出修正幅度有所减弱，反映了市场的日益谨慎。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管一季度财报季表现超预期且贸易谈判显露积极信号，但高盛首席策略师戴维· 科斯汀仍呼吁投资者保持警惕。他在5月9日发布的报告中指出，虽然标普500指数成份股公司首季盈利 同比大增12%(是财报季前预期6%增幅的两倍)，但经济潜在挑战与关税政策的不确定性仍可能对市场构 成压力。 财报数据显示，标普500指数成份股公司首季利润率同比提升111个基点至12.1%，创2022年年中以来新 高。科斯汀认为，这一强劲表现虽暗示短期上行空间，但高盛经济学家对下半年GDP增速趋缓的预测 (接近停滞状态)，使其维持对2025年标普500指数每股收益仅增长3%的预测(达253美元)，低于市场策略 师共识预期的257美元及分析师自下而上汇总的264美元。 他特别强调，多数企业在财报中维持业绩指引时，尚未充分计入关税政策可能带来的冲击，"未来数月 供应链波动风险不容忽视"。 大型科技股(即"七巨头")再次成为盈利增长核心引擎。 ...

Group 1 - Trump announced plans to significantly increase trade with India and Pakistan, although no discussions have taken place yet [2] - Following a trade agreement with the UK, the US Commerce Secretary indicated that India is making efforts to reach a trade deal and could be one of the next countries to do so [3] - On May 10, Trump claimed that India and Pakistan agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire, although Indian officials stated that the ceasefire was reached through direct negotiations between the two countries [3][4] Group 2 - A US federal judge ruled that the Trump administration cannot proceed with a large-scale layoff plan for federal agencies, which was initiated by an executive order in February [5][6] - The temporary restraining order, effective for two weeks, prohibits the government from approving or executing plans aimed at large-scale layoffs or significant restructuring of agencies [6] Group 3 - The US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed to the impact of increased tariffs [7] - Economists believe that ongoing uncertainty in trade policy may pose challenges to economic growth in the coming quarters, with potential for recession [8]

4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。 刚过去的4月是美股近5年来最动荡的月份。华尔街股谚有"卖在五月"(Sell In May)的说法，历史统计也 显示本月是美股全年表现最差的三大月份之一。在4月初对等关税引发资本市场巨震后不久，美国总统 特朗普决定推迟实施90天，缓和了市场担忧情绪。 近一周，美国和英国宣布达成协议的消息获得认可，特朗普也再次发声建议民众买入股票。不过接下来 的谈判进程依然并不明朗，而美联储在货币政策上的谨慎和潜在的经济数据波动风险，可能成为市场风 险偏好动荡的压力。 考虑到关税政策的影响，外界担忧经济将受到严重冲击。短期内经济指标暂未出现大幅恶化，随着订单 的增加，美国服务业的增长在4月份有所回升，美国供应管理协会（ISM）非制造业采购经理人指数 （PMI）从3月份的50.8升至上月的51.6。服务业占经济的三分之二以上，这显示支柱依然稳固。不过企 业为材料和服务支付的价格提高到两年多来的最高水平，这表明关税带来的通胀压力正在加剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在议息会议后的新闻发布会上表示，"虽然特朗普征收的高额关税可能会增加通货膨 胀和失业率，但到目前为止，经济几乎没有显示出这两种情况的迹象，这让我也 ...

新华社记者熊茂伶 新华社华盛顿5月10日电 题：滥征关税政策加剧美国经济不确定性 美国商务部日前发布的数据显示，2025年第一季度，美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比出现萎缩。观 察人士认为，受美国政府加征关税影响，企业大幅增加进口提前囤货，拖累了一季度经济增长。长期来 看，美关税政策持续将加剧不确定性，可能导致通胀和失业率上升，关税对美国经济的冲击效应未来可 能进一步显现。 数据显示，今年一季度美国GDP环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。这是2022年以来美国经济的最差季度 表现。 美国商务部表示，一季度GDP萎缩主要受进口大幅增加和政府支出减少拖累。具体来看，当季净出 口对GDP的拖累达4.83个百分点。这表明企业对未来进口关税可能上升感到担忧，从而大规模囤积库 存。当季，联邦政府支出减少5.1%，拖累经济增长0.33个百分点。 富国银行经济学家在一份报告中指出，美国一季度GDP萎缩反映了贸易政策的"突然变化"。这一变 化导致净出口对经济造成显著拖累，拖累程度创下超过半个世纪以来的最高水平。 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔7日在一场新闻发布会上也表示，今年一季度GDP下降，主要反映 出净出口的波动。这可能是由于企业在 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming meeting between Chinese Vice Premier and U.S. Treasury Secretary, which is seen as a step towards de-escalating trade tensions between the two countries [1][3][5] - The meeting is a response to the pressure from U.S. businesses and consumers, indicating that China is willing to engage in dialogue after careful consideration of the U.S. stance [1][3] - The Chinese government has maintained a firm position on tariffs but has shown flexibility by agreeing to talks, suggesting a potential shift from confrontation to a more balanced competition and cooperation with the U.S. [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has been influenced by the significant impact of tariffs on the economy, with concerns about inflation and unemployment rising [5][6] - The stock market experienced volatility following the Fed's announcement, with major indices initially dropping before recovering to close higher, indicating investor uncertainty amid trade tensions [5][8] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the current trajectory of government debt growth is unsustainable, highlighting potential risks to economic stability [6][8]

高盛最新警告称，美国股市面临近20%的下跌风险，经济衰退对股市来说是一个巨大的风险。 自4月7日盘中低点以来，标普500指数已上涨约18%。如果接下来几天继续上涨，市场有望再次进入技 术性牛市区间。美股大幅反弹的背后，是交易员们认为，一个月前对特朗普贸易战潜在破坏的反应过于 激烈。特朗普对等关税计划的90天暂停显著缓解了市场担忧。 然而，高盛的经济学家们仍然持谨慎态度： 高盛为何谨慎？ Hatzius重申， 他预计未来12个月美国经济衰退的可能性为45%。他强调，"衰退风险非常显著"。 Hatzius承认，近期数据好坏参半，情绪调查等软数据疲软，而硬数据如最新的非农就业数据表现较 好。他解释称，这种差异可以理解，因为历史上硬数据通常有60天左右的滞后期。而这一次，滞后可能 更长，因为很多贸易活动被提前进行以避免关税。 Hatzius还指出，如果美联储在观察通胀是暂时冲击还是持续压力的过程中被动等待，等到劳动力市场 开始恶化时才采取行动， 衰退一旦发生，可能会迫使美联储从当前水平下调利率多达200个基点。 Oppenheimer则表示，近期美国股市强劲反弹主要是因为投资者对特朗普暂缓实施关税感到宽慰，企业 财报 ...