（来源：宏策股） 指数2024年的转折点，是特朗普遭遇枪击事件之后，确定川王要归来了，我们这边的政策开始发力，于是引发了A股的9.24行情。 指数2025年的转折点，是4月份关税的极限施压之后，我们这边的政策又开始发力，险资，央企，国家队纷纷下场，亲自操刀。 于是，如果遮住指数的名称，这走势图甚至以为是美股三大指数的走势——太强劲了！ A500ETF在去年底的疯狂，结合上证指数（截止1月9日）的16连阳，这就是本文第三段说的险资，央企，国家队的力量，和ETF的优势显化。AI+，创新 药的表现也亮眼，消费就只是活跃过，还是不够火候啊。 指数从2024年9.24行情涨到现在，叠加期间对题材概念的过度炒作…… 于是，2026年的年策略观点更新如下： 指数上，会延续去年的风格，毕竟险资，央企，国家队还是市场的主要力量，而且去年12月，《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》更是添 了一把火：如果你想出奇制胜，跑赢了基准和同行固然爽，但是如果万一跑输了，你首先就是要绞尽脑汁想尽办法追平基准和同行，跑赢的事先不要想 了，先能追平再说 。【延伸阅读：你是排名靠后要扣绩效的基金经理，今天面对现在的大盘，你的选择是什么? ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming 44th J.P. Morgan Global Healthcare Conference, focusing on the evolving landscape of the healthcare industry and investment opportunities within various sectors [4][28]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will feature approximately 530 participating entities, categorized into six major sectors, with a focus on identifying which sectors are transitioning from theoretical discussions to practical implementations [4][6]. - The sectors include biotechnology (24.1%), biopharmaceuticals (20.0%), medical devices (7.6%), healthcare services and payments (7.6%), digital health (3.7%), and diagnostics and precision medicine (3.5%) [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - **Biotechnology**: Companies are shifting focus from technological breakthroughs to the validation of clinical and regulatory milestones. Notable companies include BridgeBio and Sarepta, which are advancing towards commercialization [13][15]. - **Biopharmaceuticals**: The sector is undergoing a repricing of its fundamentals, emphasizing cash flow stability and R&D efficiency. Companies like AbbVie and Merck are highlighted for their strong market positions [14][15]. - **Medical Devices**: The focus is on the ability of devices to integrate into clinical pathways and improve operational metrics. Companies like Intuitive Surgical and Dexcom are noted for their innovative approaches [17]. - **Healthcare Services and Payments**: This sector faces challenges due to policy impacts and utilization rates. The market is increasingly focused on the ability to clearly explain profit structures [18]. - **Digital Health**: Although smaller in representation, this sector is gaining attention for its role in enhancing hospital efficiency and cost management. Companies like Veeva and Teladoc are leading discussions on sustainable business models [19]. - **Diagnostics and Precision Medicine**: The focus is on the integration of diagnostic tools into clinical decision-making processes. Companies like Illumina and Guardant Health are key players in this space [20][21]. Group 3: China’s Role in Global Healthcare - Chinese companies are transitioning from demonstrating innovation to proving their irreplaceability in the global market. This shift is characterized by a dual approach of independent R&D and international collaborations [22][24]. - Companies like HengRui and BeiGene are highlighted for their efforts in advancing their clinical pipelines and establishing a global presence [26][27]. Group 4: Investment Focus - The article emphasizes that the market is increasingly focused on a few verifiable variables across all sectors, rather than broad narratives. This includes the ability to demonstrate clinical, payment, and commercialization effectiveness [28][30]. - The 2026 outlook suggests a reliance on structural choices and execution capabilities, with companies that can provide clear answers to these questions likely to achieve cross-cycle premium valuations [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the medical device sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in innovative drugs and medical devices [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a transition in the innovative drug sector from quantity to quality, suggesting a focus on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [11]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [11]. - The report identifies a significant growth potential in the orthopedic market due to aging demographics and increasing surgical penetration rates in China [43]. - The life sciences service sector is experiencing a demand recovery, driven by both domestic and international market needs, with a focus on the importance of mergers and acquisitions for growth [50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The medical index rose by 7.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.91 percentage points, ranking 5th among 30 sectors [7]. - The top-performing stocks included Baitai, Innovation Medical, and Sanbo Neuroscience, while the worst performers were Baihua Pharmaceutical and Jinhao Medical [7]. Overall Views and Investment Themes - Innovative drugs are expected to see a shift towards quality, with a focus on companies like BeiGene and Innovent [11]. - Medical devices are benefiting from a recovery in bidding for imaging equipment and a push for domestic substitutes in the market [11]. - The innovative chain (CXO + life sciences services) is anticipated to see a rebound in investment, with a focus on high-growth potential companies [11]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the blood products sector, with an emphasis on companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological [11]. Specific Company Insights - Neuralink is positioned as a leader in the invasive brain-computer interface sector, with significant advancements in its technology and clinical trials [21]. - Synchron is noted for its endovascular brain-computer interface, which offers a safer solution for severely paralyzed patients [25]. - Paradromics focuses on high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces, aiming to decode complex human intentions [32]. - CorTec is pioneering closed-loop brain-computer interfaces, providing real-time interaction between the brain and external devices [36]. - Precision Neuroscience is innovating minimally invasive implantation techniques for brain-computer interfaces [39]. - Blackrock Neurotech is recognized for its comprehensive solutions in the brain-computer interface field, aiding patients with sensory restoration and control [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the investment landscape is shifting towards artificial intelligence (AI) applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a strong emphasis on the potential of these sectors for future growth [3][4]. - In 2025, the A-share market performed well, largely due to increased policy support for the stock market, with the non-ferrous metals sector being one of the best-performing industries [3]. - The real estate market in Beijing is currently experiencing a downward trend, with rental yields not meeting the industry standard of 3%, suggesting that potential investors should wait before purchasing property [3]. Group 2 - The investment focus for 2026 is on AI applications, which are likened to the real estate investment opportunities of 2006, indicating a significant potential for growth in this sector [4]. - The current investment environment for AI is compared to the early days of the internet, with a strong belief that now is the time to invest in leading AI companies, similar to investing in Tencent in 2004 [4]. - The company has shifted its research focus entirely towards AI applications and AI computing power, abandoning other areas to maximize efficiency and returns [4]. Group 3 - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has been under research since 2016, with significant advancements being made in China, particularly in areas such as dual antibodies, ADC, and cell gene therapy [5]. - The growth of China's innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to follow a long-term cycle, with projections indicating that China could produce 20%-30% of innovative drugs in the next decade [5]. - Data shows a dramatic increase in the outbound business development transactions for innovative drugs, with the total transaction amount rising from $0.9 billion in 2019 to $135.655 billion by the end of 2025, marking a significant growth in both transaction volume and value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for the pharmaceutical sector have shown a strong recovery at the beginning of 2026, marked by a "five consecutive days of gains" trend, driven by supportive policies, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, the A-share innovative drug ETF (159992) closed at 0.897 CNY per share, up 1.7%, with a daily trading volume of 845 million CNY, and a year-to-date increase of 7.94% [2]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159570) closed at 0.553 HKD per share, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 572 million HKD, and a year-to-date increase of 11.04% [4]. - Notable stocks such as Weikang Pharmaceutical, Frontier Biologics-U, and Hongbo Pharmaceutical achieved daily price limits, indicating strong market sentiment [2][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - The turnaround in market sentiment is attributed to a combination of policy support, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [6]. - The new medical insurance directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory were launched simultaneously, further supporting the innovative drug sector [6]. - Local policies have also been strengthened, with the Guangzhou government announcing plans to accelerate the strategic layout of innovative drugs, focusing on monoclonal antibodies, vaccines, and blood products [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Improvements - The approval process for innovative drugs has entered a fast track, with the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) enhancing support for innovative drugs with new mechanisms and targets [8]. - The NMPA has optimized the review and approval processes for urgently needed foreign drugs, aiming to shorten the listing cycle for innovative drugs [8]. - As of early 2026, several significant drugs have been approved, setting a positive tone for the industry's development [9]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - In 2025, a record 76 innovative drugs were approved for listing, with over one-third in the oncology treatment field, indicating a strong focus on cancer research [10]. - The majority of approved drugs were domestically developed, with a domestic rate of 85.53%, highlighting the strength of local innovation [12]. Group 5: Payment Innovations - A multi-tiered payment system has been established to address the "payment difficulty" that has historically hindered the development of innovative drugs in China [14]. - The new medical insurance directory includes 114 drugs, with an 88% success rate for inclusion, and 80% of innovative drugs entering the directory within two years of listing [16]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for high-value innovative drugs enhances patient access and secures profitability for companies [16]. Group 6: International Expansion - The overseas market for Chinese innovative drugs has seen explosive growth, with total overseas authorization transaction amounts reaching 1356.55 billion USD in 2025, significantly up from 519 billion USD in 2024 [17]. - The focus on antibody drugs and ADCs has attracted attention from overseas pharmaceutical companies, with a shift towards later-stage clinical authorizations [17]. - The growth in overseas business not only provides substantial upfront payments but also benefits the entire industry chain, including contract research organizations (CROs) [17][18].

Market Overview - The A-share market rose again on January 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points, marking a continuous 16-day increase [1] - The total trading volume of the A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, the first time since October 2025 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.92% at 4120.43 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.77% [1] AI Application Sector - The AI application concept saw a significant surge, with stocks like Yidian Tianxia and Kunlun Wanwei hitting the 20% limit up, and Xinghuan Technology reaching a historical high [3][4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued an implementation opinion for the "AI + Manufacturing" initiative, aiming for significant advancements in AI technology and applications by 2027 [4][5] - The proportion of industrial enterprises in China applying large models and intelligent agents increased from 9.6% in September 2024 to 47.5% in 2025, with further rapid growth expected [5] Aerospace and Military Sector - The aerospace and military sectors showed strong performance, with stocks like Qian Zhao Guangdian and Zhenyou Technology hitting the 20% limit up [7][8] - The military industry is expected to enter a long-term prosperous phase, driven by both domestic demand and foreign trade, with significant improvements in revenue and profitability anticipated [8] Notable Stocks - Fenglong Co. continued its impressive performance with an 11-day limit up streak, reaching a historical high [10] - Lushin Investment also saw a strong performance with 9 limit up days in 11 trading sessions [10] - Zhizhi New Materials achieved a 20% limit up for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market rose again on January 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4100 points, marking a continuous 16-day increase [1] - The total trading volume of the entire A-share market exceeded 3 trillion yuan, the first time since October 2025 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.92% at 4120.43 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.15% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.77% [1] AI Application Concept - The AI application concept saw a significant surge, with stocks like Yidian Tianxia and Kunlun Wanwei hitting the 20% limit up, and Xinghuan Technology reaching a historical high [3][5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued an implementation opinion for the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative, aiming for key AI technologies to achieve reliable supply by 2027 [5] - The proportion of industrial enterprises applying large models and intelligent agents in China is expected to rise from 9.6% in September 2024 to 47.5% by 2025, driven by policy support [5] Military Industry Sector - The military sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Qian Zhao Guangdian and Zhenyou Technology hitting the 20% limit up, and companies like Zhenlei Technology and China Satellite Communications reaching historical highs [7][9] - According to a report, 2025 is expected to be a turning point for the military industry, with a rebound in revenue and profit expected [9] - The military trade market is anticipated to experience historical opportunities due to a shift from "cost-effective alternatives" to "technical benchmarks" in recent years [9] Notable Stocks - Fenglong Co. continued its upward trend, achieving an 11-day consecutive limit up, while Lushin Investment also saw a significant increase with 9 limit ups in 11 trading days [11][12] - Zhi Te New Materials experienced a 150% increase over five consecutive trading days, although it warned of potential risks due to significant price deviations from market trends [13]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced slight gains on January 9, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.32%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.1% and 0.15% respectively, ending a two-day decline [1] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 6.815 billion, with HKD 1.66 billion from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and HKD 5.155 billion from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect [22] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Kuaishou, Tencent Music, and Bilibili rising over 3%, while Alibaba and JD.com increased by over 2%. Conversely, Baidu and Meituan fell by more than 2% [3][5] - Gold and precious metals stocks were active, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% and Zhaojin Mining hitting a historical high. Other gold stocks also saw gains [6][8] - The oil sector and internet healthcare stocks experienced upward movement, while gaming stocks and the gambling sector rebounded after previous declines [3] Specific Stock Movements - MINIMAX-WP debuted with a surge of 109%, while Zhiyuan's stock rose over 20%, reaching a market capitalization of HKD 72 billion [10] - TSMC reported a revenue increase of approximately 20% in Q4, reaching NT$1.05 trillion (approximately USD 33.1 billion), exceeding market expectations [9] - Innovative drug stocks were active, with stocks like Crystal Technology and Boan Biotechnology seeing significant gains [12][11] Industry Insights - The gold market is supported by supply-demand imbalances and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as noted by Barclays Bank [7] - The photovoltaic sector faced declines due to regulatory scrutiny regarding monopoly risks, impacting major companies in the industry [13][14] - The battery sector is under pressure following a meeting by regulatory authorities addressing irrational competition and rapid industry growth [15][16] Future Outlook - Analysts from Industrial Securities predict that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bullish trend into 2026, driven by earnings and liquidity [24]

Core Insights - The QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds have shown significant performance differentiation in 2025, with some funds achieving remarkable returns while others faced substantial losses due to market volatility and sector-specific challenges [1][4][6]. Performance Highlights - The top-performing QDII fund, Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection, achieved a return of over 112%, benefiting from the global rise in innovative pharmaceuticals and biotechnology [2][9]. - Other notable funds include China Universal Global Pharmaceutical Biology and E Fund Global Growth Selection, both with returns exceeding 88%, driven by the global pharmaceutical sector's growth [2][9]. - The E Fund Gold Theme QDII also performed well, nearing a 70% return amid global risk aversion and monetary policy adjustments [2][9]. Underperformers - In contrast, several QDII funds focused on oil and real estate faced significant declines, with returns ranging from -10.78% to -13.76% for oil-themed funds like E Fund Oil and Southern Oil [4][11]. - Funds tracking the Saudi Arabian market also struggled, with returns exceeding -12% since their inception in 2024 [4][11]. - Real estate-focused funds, such as Penghua US Real Estate and Nuveen Global Real Estate, reported negative annual returns, reflecting broader market challenges [4][11]. Market Trends - The performance of QDII funds in 2025 highlights the importance of sector-specific trends, with technology and healthcare being key drivers of growth, while traditional cyclical assets like oil and real estate remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions [6][13]. - The ability to diversify across different asset classes and geographic regions is emphasized as a critical strategy for investors to mitigate risks associated with concentrated investments [6][13].

1月9日，科创创新药ETF国泰（589720）收涨近4%，政策与行业趋势支撑创新药长期发展。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 相关机构表示，2025年国家第十一次集采中标结果公示，"反内卷"等四原则推动行业良性竞争，促 进行业健康发展。"十五五"规划支持创新药发展，2025年前三季度医药企业License-Out规模已超过2024 年全年水平，创新药发展持续向好。医药制造企业在债券市场净融资保持净流入，行业存续债券1年内 到期规模较大，但整体杠杆水平较低，偿债指标处于高水平，债务压力可控。2025年前三季度医药消费 基本盘稳健，企业数量小幅增长，但行业分化程度加深。随着政策面趋稳，医药制造企业营业收入和利 润总额同比基本稳定。预计2026年医药行业经营业绩有望保持稳定，"控费"仍为政策主线，"唯低价 论"或将破除。医保目录持续调整给予创新药更多发展空间， ...