此外，外部风险因素继续强化避险需求。近期，全球贸易担忧情绪再度升温。美亚双方互征港口附加 费，增加了海运成本。市场认为，此举不仅可能推高企业成本，也会对全球经济复苏带来拖累。 在货币政策层面，日本央行（BoJ）委员田村直树在周四表示，日本经济增速有望上升，海外放缓程度 或不如预期严重，央行应逐步推动利率接近"中性区间"。 这一偏"鹰派"的表态，与美联储可能在10月与12月各降息25个基点的预期形成鲜明对比。市场数据显 示，美联储年内两次降息的概率接近100%，而日本加息预期上升，进一步强化了日元的相对优势。 周四（10月16日）亚洲时段，美元/日元一度触及逾一周低点，随后小幅回升重新站上151.00点大关， 最新美元兑日元汇率报151.0500，涨幅0.01%。日本执政联盟的意外分裂在短期内反而缓解了市场对日 本财政健康的担忧，支撑日元兑美元连续三日走强。 交易员普遍认为，执政的自由民主党（LDP）与公明党的联盟破裂，是导致日元升值的主要触发因素。 这场政治动荡使自民党新任领导人高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi）成为日本首位女性首相的道路充满不确定 性，但同时也降低了市场对财政扩张的担忧，从而提振了日元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high of over $4,200 per ounce, driven by escalating tensions in US-China relations and market expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold reached a peak of $4,218.33 per ounce, while silver saw a 3.2% increase, reflecting tight supply conditions in the London market [1]. - The US Treasury yields fell to multi-month lows as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a 0.25% rate cut this month, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid rising risk aversion [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The cumulative increase in precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, ranged from 59% to 83% this year, leading the global commodity market [3]. - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold, increased holdings in gold ETFs, and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed have contributed to the rising demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation risks [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Traders are betting on a dovish stance from the Fed, which has led to increased positions in precious metals, pushing gold prices to new highs [4]. - If gold maintains above the key resistance level of $4,170 - $4,180, it is likely to continue rising towards the $4,200 target [4]. - Silver is attempting to break through the resistance level of $53.40 - $53.60, and a successful breakout could lead to testing the psychological level of $55.00 [4]. - Platinum prices have also seen an uptick, with potential upward movement if it breaks the $1,680 resistance level [4].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, is being driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing global trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a sharp slowdown in hiring poses risks to the U.S. economy, suggesting the possibility of two more rate cuts this year [3]. - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming October meeting, followed by another cut in December, and three additional cuts next year [3]. Group 2: Trade Tensions Impact - The escalation of trade tensions is expected to increase shipping costs and disrupt logistics, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that renewed trade tensions provide investors with more reasons to hedge against stock market risks by allocating to gold [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is closely monitoring speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as hawkish signals could strengthen the dollar and exert pressure on gold prices [3]. - Despite potential pullback risks, the strong upward trend in gold prices suggests that market participants do not expect a significant drop after reaching new highs [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The current gold price chart shows a clear bullish trend, with prices consistently breaking historical highs and minor pullbacks [5]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is in an overbought state, which typically suggests a phase of consolidation or slight correction may occur [5]. - Key support levels are identified at $4,117, $4,059, $4,023, and the $4,000 round number, while upward targets are set at $4,300 and $4,400 [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Gold retains upward potential due to multiple favorable factors, but investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility risks [7]. - The market will continue to look for key signals regarding gold's next phase of movement through Federal Reserve officials' speeches and developments in trade relations [7].

Group 1: Gold Market - International gold prices continued to rise, closing above $4,200 per ounce for the first time in history, setting a new closing record [1][7] - The increase in gold prices was driven by expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade tensions [7][9] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Major U.S. banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, reported strong Q3 earnings, leading to a rise in their stock prices by 4.7% and 4.4% respectively [9] - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.04%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by 0.40% and 0.66% respectively [5][9] Group 3: European Market - In Europe, the French CAC 40 index rose nearly 2% following positive remarks from the French Prime Minister regarding public spending cuts and pension reforms [10] - The luxury brand LVMH reported a slight revenue increase in Q3, ending two consecutive quarters of decline, which contributed to the rise in the French stock market [10] Group 4: Oil Market - International oil prices fell, with Brent crude closing at $61.91 per barrel, down 0.77%, amid expectations of oversupply in the global oil market [11][12] - The International Energy Agency's report indicated that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 400,000 barrels per day next year, intensifying bearish sentiment in the oil market [11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-16 流动性与避险⽀撑延续，⾦银⾼位震荡 伦敦⾦在欧洲时段⼀度刷新纪录⾼位⾄4220美元/盎司后回落⾄4200美元 附近震荡；伦敦银站稳52美元上⽅。美联储降息预期、贸易摩擦升级与地 缘⻛险交织，共同推升避险与配置需求。短线虽处超买区间，但波动率提 升更多体现情绪扩张⽽⾮趋势反转，中期多头逻辑仍稳固。 重点资讯： 1）鲍威尔在费城发表讲话，强调"不过度降息但或将停止缩表"， 平衡就业与通胀目标。市场解读为美联储将以"小步降息+暂停缩 表"的双轨方式应对流动性紧张。 2）中东局势再度升温。以色列对黎巴嫩南部实施空袭，真主党武装 回击导弹袭击北以色列，联合国呼吁各方克制；市场避险情绪显著升 温，推动金价延续高位运行。 4）特朗普威胁中止对中国部分农产品贸易并强化稀土出口限制，IMF 上调全球增速至3.2%但警示贸易战重燃风险。 价格逻辑： 黄金： 鲍威尔讲话被视为"有限降息+流动性维护"的政策信号，美 联储在降息与缩表之间寻求平衡，短期利率下行、美元维持弱势共同 强化黄金支撑。地缘冲突扩散加速避险资金流入，黄金短线超买但 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - SSE 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Uptrend [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships. The prices of iron ore, coking coal, coke, rebar, etc. are expected to oscillate or adjust. The key lies in the demand for steel products in October and the implementation of relevant policies [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as economic data, trade policies, and central bank operations. The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite. The prices of stocks, bonds, and precious metals have different trends [4]. - The light industry and agricultural products markets are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - environment. The prices of logs, pulp, oils, and agricultural products are expected to have different trends, and attention should be paid to factors such as supply changes and demand recovery [6][7]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and oil price trends. The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are expected to follow cost fluctuations or be in a wait - and - see state [9]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Trade frictions and supply - side news affect market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the key lies in the demand for steel products in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations and supply - side policies affect the market. The supply of coking coal has eased, and the demand for coke is strong. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and policy implementation [2]. - **Rebar**: The supply pressure is relatively large, and the demand recovery in October is the key. The price needs to cooperate with rapid de - stocking to stabilize [2]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. The market expects policy implementation, but the new - start strength is difficult to recover quickly in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market sentiment has improved, but it is still recommended to reduce risk appetite and control positions [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market trend is slightly rebounding, and long - positions can be held lightly [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate strongly, affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The supply will increase after the holiday, and the demand is expected to gradually recover. The price is expected to have increased volatility, and the macro - impact may dominate [6]. - **Pulp**: The cost support for the pulp price is weakening, and the demand improvement needs to be verified. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Oils**: The high inventory of palm oil and the supply increase of soybeans put pressure on the market. The price is expected to oscillate widely [6]. - **Meal Products**: The supply of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate downward [6]. - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure has decreased, and the demand has increased. The price is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: The market is worried about future supply over - capacity, and the price follows oil price fluctuations [7]. - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, and the supply - demand relationship has marginally improved. The price follows cost fluctuations [9]. - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is affected by cost fluctuations [9]. - **PR and PF**: The market is waiting for new information, and the price is expected to be in a wait - and - see state or continue to be sorted weakly [9].

多机构上调金价预期。瑞银预测，黄金价格在未来数月内升至4200美元/盎司；摩根士丹利预测金 价将在2026年下半年达到4500美元/盎司；高盛将2026年12月的金价预测从4300美元/盎司上调至4900美 元/盎司。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中信期货分析指出，美联储降息预期、贸易摩擦升级与地缘风险交织，共同推升黄金避险与配置需 求。短线虽处超买区间，但波动率提升更多体现情绪扩张而非趋势反转，中期多头逻辑仍稳固。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，涵盖了黄金的全产业链相关股票，包 括上游矿端的开采、中游加工以及下游的消费。另外，黄金股票ETF本身是权益资产，存在高波动特 性，需根据自身的投资需求进行资产的配置。 （风险提示：提及个股仅供参考，不作为股票推荐，不构成投资建议和承诺。指数/个股短期涨跌 仅供参考，不代表未 ...

智通财经APP获悉，黄金仍未停下其上涨的步伐。截至发稿，黄金现货涨0.35%，报每盎司4223.13美元。贸易紧张局势升级以及市场对美联储将在年底前加 大货币宽松力度的押注支撑了对黄金的避险需求，并推动黄金持续创下新高。 交易员正纷纷押注美联储将在年底前至少实施一次幅度降息。而美联储主席鲍威尔本周暗示，美联储计划在本月稍晚再降息25个基点。较低的借贷成本通常 利好贵金属，因为黄金等资产不产生利息收入。 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为美国已经陷入一场贸易战之中。这一言论引发了人们对全球经济可能遭受长期损害的担忧，而这可能进一步提升黄金的避险吸 引力。与此同时，美国财长贝森特提议可以考虑延长"休战期"，但他也表示，贸易战引发的近期美股波动并未阻止联邦官员继续采取强硬谈判立场。 此外，美国联邦政府持续停摆也给黄金提供了支撑。所谓的"货币贬值交易"(debasement trade)也在升温，投资者为防范因预算赤字失控而导致的主权债务和 货币贬值，纷纷转向黄金等实物资产。各国央行的强劲购金需求亦是关键支撑因素之一，使得黄金价格今年迄今累计上涨约60%。 本周迄今，黄金已上涨近5%，自8月中旬以来的迅猛涨势持续不减，年内涨 ...

本周迄今，黄金已上涨近5%，自8月中旬以来的迅猛涨势持续不减，年内涨幅接近60%。买盘热潮也扩散至其他贵金属。白银现货周三上涨3.1%，原因是伦 敦市场供应依然紧张。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金仍未停下其上涨的步伐。截至发稿，黄金现货涨0.35%，报每盎司4223.13美元。贸易紧张局势升级以及市场对美联储将在年底前加 大货币宽松力度的押注支撑了对黄金的避险需求，并推动黄金持续创下新高。 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为美国已经陷入一场贸易战之中。这一言论引发了人们对全球经济可能遭受长期损害的担忧，而这可能进一步提升黄金的避险吸 引力。与此同时，美国财长贝森特提议可以考虑延长"休战期"，但他也表示，贸易战引发的近期美股波动并未阻止联邦官员继续采取强硬谈判立场。 此外，美国联邦政府持续停摆也给黄金提供了支撑。所谓的"货币贬值交易"(debasement trade)也在升温，投资者为防范因预算赤字失控而导致的主权债务和 货币贬值，纷纷转向黄金等实物资产。各国央行的强劲购金需求亦是关键支撑因素之一，使得黄金价格今年迄今累计上涨约60%。 托克集团(Trafigura Group)首席经济学家Saad Rahim表示："推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise due to safe-haven demand and technical buying, reaching a record high of $4235.8 per ounce for December futures, with a 1.48% increase on the day [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price increased by $61.5, closing at $4224.9 per ounce [1] - The next upward price target for gold bulls is to break through the strong resistance level of $4300, while bears aim to push below the solid technical support level of $4000 [1] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, stated that gold could easily rise to $5000 or even $10000 per ounce in the current environment, suggesting that holding gold in investment portfolios is reasonable given the opportunity cost [1] Group 2: Silver Market - December silver futures price rose by $1.903, closing at $52.525 per ounce, marking a 3.76% increase [1] - There is a severe shortage of silver supply in London, leading to prices significantly higher than those in New York, indicating a "short squeeze" in the silver market [1]