党的十八大以来，习近平总书记三次考察调研云南都对建设面向南亚东南亚辐射中心作出重要指示。 2025年3月，习近平总书记再次强调，云南区位条件独特，要积极推进高水平对外开放，建设面向南亚 东南亚辐射中心。近年来，云南持续壮大资源经济、园区经济、口岸经济，全省经济转型 成"形"起"势"，经济社会发展取得开创性进展。今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，《金融时报》记者邀请 到中国人民银行云南省分行党委书记、行长李滔，介绍和解读金融支持云南现代化建设中的相关举措和 成效。 《金融时报》记者：东盟连续5年蝉联我国最大贸易伙伴，我国连续16年保持对东盟第一大贸易伙伴地 位。在支持云南建设我国面向南亚东南亚辐射中心方面，金融系统开展了哪些工作？ 李滔：中国人民银行历来重视云南面向南亚东南亚特殊区位优势的发挥。2013年11月，中国人民银行牵 头11部委联合印发支持云桂两省（区）建设沿边金融综合改革试验区总体方案。五年试点期间，中国人 民银行牵头指导富滇银行在老挝设立老中银行，成为全国城市商业银行在境外设立的首家经营性机构， 目前已经发展为中老跨境金融合作的重要支点，在服务中老铁路建设、促进两国经济金融交往中发挥了 广泛作用。全国 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint The global foreign exchange market has been significantly influenced by tariff expectations and fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate since 2025. The dollar index experienced a notable decline in the first half of 2025, followed by stabilization in the latter half, with expectations of further movements in 2026 driven by interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite. Group 1: 2025 Overview - The dollar index fell significantly in the first quarter of 2025 due to weaker-than-expected tariff policy advancements by the Trump administration, reversing the "Trump trade" [1] - In the second quarter, the dollar experienced a sharp decline driven by unexpected "reciprocal tariffs" and escalating US-China trade tensions, raising concerns about the US economic outlook and the stability of dollar assets [1][5] - The dollar stabilized in the third quarter as the US reached tariff agreements with major trading partners, alleviating market concerns about economic and financial stability [1][5] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The narrowing of interest rate differentials and changes in risk appetite are expected to become the main themes in currency trading for 2026 [2][19] - The Federal Reserve's potential for more aggressive rate cuts compared to other non-US central banks may lead to a further decline in the dollar's volatility center [2][19] - The performance of different non-US currencies is likely to diverge, with the euro expected to lead due to improved economic growth dynamics in the Eurozone [3][19] Group 3: Renminbi (RMB) Dynamics - The RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by the dollar's performance and changes in US-China trade relations, with a stable exchange rate policy potentially impacting the RMB's trajectory [3][41] - The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately as the Fed's rate cuts narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US [3][41] - The resilience of the Chinese economy and financial markets under tariff pressures has reduced the impact of tariff risks on the RMB [3][41][64] Group 4: Currency Performance and Strategies - High-yield currencies from Latin America and Europe have performed relatively well, supported by favorable interest rate differentials and lower volatility [12][13] - The carry trade strategy has been the most profitable forex trading strategy in 2025, indicating a return to traditional trading logic based on interest rate differentials [13] - The euro is expected to benefit from reduced need for aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank, while the yen and pound may face relative weakness due to domestic policy pressures [3][38][39] Group 5: External Factors and Risks - The US government shutdown and tariff rate fluctuations pose risks to market stability and may increase volatility in the forex market [32][33] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan, as well as geopolitical factors like the Ukraine conflict, could also impact global risk sentiment and currency performance [32][36] - The overall environment is expected to favor a gradual appreciation of the RMB, supported by the internationalization of the currency and a stable economic outlook [62][76]

在全球经济深度融合的当下，中国作为世界第二大经济体，正以坚定不移的决心和前所未有的力度，稳慎有序、步步坚实地推进人民币国际化进程，构建 全方位高水平开放新格局的核心战略支撑。 截至2024年末，中信银行跨境人民币收付汇量高达15399.8亿元，较上年同比增长24.1%，增速超出全国跨境人民币平均水平1.6个百分点，彰显出强劲的 增长势头。其中，经常项下整体收付汇量达到4898.9亿元，资本项下整体收付汇量更是突破万亿大关，达到10500.9亿元，服务跨境人民币对公客户数量超 过一万户，构建起庞大的跨境人民币服务网络。 在跨境人民币贸易结算领域，中信银行同样表现出色，收付金额达4374.1亿元，同比增速11.1%，持续保持稳健增长。同时，跨境人民币贷款余额达到 385.4亿元，同比增长194%，为上百户企业提供了全方位的跨境人民币综合融资服务，有效满足了国内企业"走出去"的融资需求，助力企业拓展国际市 场，提升国际竞争力。 这些数字的背后，彰显了中信银行在跨境金融领域的深厚积淀与卓越能力，更体现了其作为银行金融机构在人民币国际化进程中的使命担当与责任情怀。 中信银行，作为中国涉足国内外金融市场融资的商业银行的" ...

12月2日，2025年"读懂中国"国际会议的湾区对话环节在广州举行，主题为海南自贸港建设与国际贸易 新空间。不久后，海南自由贸易港将正式启动全岛封关运作。对于封关后的发展重点，中国国家创新与 发展战略研究会学术委员会常务副主席、重庆市原市长黄奇帆提出了五个应着力推进的关键方向，认为 它们将对海南及全国产生重大战略意义。 第一，海南应率先实现内外贸一体化。 第二，大力发展高附加值服务贸易。 第三，打造面向东南亚和中国经济交往的枢纽与桥梁。 第四，建设金融回流基地。 第五，成为人民币国际化的重要前沿阵地。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of infrastructure REITs, including commercial office facilities and urban renewal facilities as independent asset categories [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued guidelines to prevent illegal funding practices and ensure timely debt settlement [2] Group 2: International News - Russia will issue its first sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, starting on December 2, with a target coupon rate of 6.25%-6.5% for the 3.2-year portion and up to 7.5% for the 7.5-year portion [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 48.2, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, with new orders and employment indices also declining [4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December, leading to declines in both Japanese stocks and bonds [5] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.31% to $59.32 per barrel and Brent up by 1.26% to $63.17 per barrel [6] Group 4: Financial Market - On December 1, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 107.6 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan [7] - The funding environment remained stable, with major repo rates showing slight fluctuations [8][9] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed strong fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly decreasing to 1.8275% while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased to 1.9000% [11] - In the secondary market, several corporate bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds from Vanke dropping over 75% [14] Group 6: Credit Bond Events - Vanke's equity stake in Shenzhen Vanke Development was frozen for three years, and the company faced scrutiny over its financial practices [15] - Aoyuan Group announced it failed to pay interest on its bonds, accumulating a total of 6.44 billion yuan in unpaid principal and interest [15] Group 7: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw mixed performance, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [18] - The total trading volume in the convertible bond market was 55.329 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.851 billion yuan from the previous trading day [18] Group 8: Overseas Bond Market - US Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 3.54% and the 10-year yield rising by 7 basis points to 4.09% [20] - Major European economies also saw an increase in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield rising by 6 basis points to 2.75% [23]

俄罗斯财政部宣布将于12月8日首次发行以人民币计价的主权债券，认购登记从12月2日开始。此前，英 国、印尼等国也发行过离岸人民币主权债券，不过在莫斯科发行还是第一次。然而，这项再正常不过的 融资活动，却被部分西方舆论拉入"地缘政治对抗"的叙事框架，被形容为"中国争夺全球影响力""挑战 美元体系"的又一步骤。这种将人民币国际化进程简单等同于"秩序挑衅"的论调，本质上还是将美元霸 权视为理所当然。 人民币国际化，是一场由市场逻辑驱动、由全球贸易格局重塑、由各国理性选择共同推动的历史进程。 它并非中国单方面推动，而是由各国实际需求驱动的结果，是经济全球化下多边合作深入的必然要求。 中国已连续多年稳居全球第一货物贸易大国，与200多个国家和地区保持贸易往来，共建"一带一路"倡 议带动跨境投资与产能合作深入发展。当中国企业承建海外铁路、出口新能源设备、开展跨境电商时， 使用人民币结算不仅能规避汇率风险，更能提升交易效率。 当然，我们清醒认识到，人民币国际化仍处于进行时。中国自身对人民币国际化的态度一直冷静而稳 健，多次表示坚持以市场驱动和自主选择为基础，稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化。中国不追求货币霸权， 中国推动的是人民币 ...

本篇我们将视角转向中资公募机构。作为香港资本市场的重要参与者，中资公募基金机构近年来发展迅 速，依托母公司强大的投研能力、跨境业务协同机制以及离岸人民币市场的独特优势，逐步构建起具有 本土化深度与国际化广度兼备的竞争力。 香港处理着全球约80%的人民币支付业务，是最大的人民币离岸中心。中资公募机构凭借这一区位优 势，结合QFII、RQFII、沪深港通、债券通、跨境理财通等政策工具，形成了"境内—香港"资金、客户 与资产的高效双向流动机制，打造出低成本、高效率的跨境一体化平台。 以下，我们选取六家在香港市场具有代表性的中资公募机构，从产品体系、投资策略、业务特色、适用 场景等维度进行系统梳理，以供投资者参考。 一、中银国际资管（BOCI AM） 关键词：银行系、全币种、港股通医药冠军 生态位：香港最大银行系资管，人民币清算量市占率35%，母公司中银香港坐拥200万零售户口。 产品线：80余只公募，货—债—股—多资产"闭环"，人民币、美元、港元三币种一键切换。 年度黑马：中银港股通医药混合发起A，2025年以来收益+102%，同类第一，规模从年初4亿飙至87亿 港元。 在之前文章中，我们系统梳理了九家具有代表性的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated return of a loose monetary policy in the U.S. and its implications for the dollar index and the RMB exchange rate, highlighting the impact of employment data and government policies on currency movements [2][5][28]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the dollar index showed a trend of decline followed by stabilization, with a significant drop of over 10% in the first half of the year due to concerns over U.S. economic stability and soft employment data [2][5]. - The dollar index stabilized in the second half of 2025 after the U.S. reached tariff agreements with trade partners, reducing market concerns about economic stability [2][5]. - The article predicts that the dollar index may break below its long-term upward trend line in 2026, entering a new phase as the market adjusts to a potentially lower interest rate environment [16][28]. Group 2: Employment Market and Monetary Policy - The U.S. employment market is showing signs of weakness, with PMI employment components consistently below 50 since April 2025, indicating a reduction in hiring across various sectors [6][7]. - The article suggests that the softening employment market may trigger a return to loose monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates to support job growth [5][11]. - The influence of the U.S. government on the Federal Reserve is expected to increase, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts if a pro-Trump candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair [11][29]. Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated approximately 3.2% against the dollar as of November 28, 2025, following a period of depreciation due to tariff pressures [19][21]. - The article attributes the RMB's strength to a combination of internal and external factors, including a restructuring of the international monetary system and improved resilience in China's financial markets [21][27]. - It is anticipated that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately against the dollar in 2026, supported by a favorable external environment and the ongoing internationalization of the RMB [28][33]. Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The article identifies several risks that could affect the dollar and RMB exchange rates, including potential government shutdowns, tariff rate fluctuations, and increased volatility in risk assets [12][13]. - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections and political changes in other countries may also contribute to market volatility, impacting currency valuations [12][13]. - The article notes that the preference of the Trump administration for a weaker dollar could further support non-dollar currencies, including the RMB [29][30].

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）联委会第十一次会议近日在泰国清迈举行，全面落实今年10 月RCEP领导人会议达成的共识，其中一项关键任务是推进新成员加入进程。自2018年中美经贸摩擦出 现以来，全球产业链供应链重构，显现出局部收缩、近岸布局与区域聚拢的特征。在依托地理邻近性形 成的区域一体化基础上，区域间互联互通的动力也正在发挥作用。随着斯里兰卡和智利等相继提出加入 申请、其他一些经济体表达加入兴趣，RCEP展现出从区域安排向跨区域安排升级的预期潜力。未来， 可进一步依托RCEP，深化面向外部的区域一体化，构建以亚太大循环为主体，跨区域经济互联互通的 地区新发展格局。 RCEP的演进同时受到多股力量的共同作用。"美国-"刺激多边主义退缩。美国国内结构性调整压力持续 削弱其对外经济领导意愿，它在全球多边机构中更多体现出交易性质。无论政府如何更迭，华盛顿逐步 退出全球经济治理领导角色的趋势在短期内难以逆转。在此情况下，亚洲地区既难以依赖，也不应寄望 美国重回传统领导地位。而开放的亚洲将为非洲、北美和欧洲等其他地区带来积极效应，若RCEP推动 的改革与市场开放以多边方式拓展至成员国以外，其影响力将进一步扩大 ...

规划同时将"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"列为核心目标之一，明确提出培育壮大新兴产业与未来产业，打造新兴支柱产业，加 快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群化发展。 从中长期投资视角出发，我们将重点关注半导体自主可控、军工贸易、航空航天等领域的优质企业，将持续深耕产业链研究， 精准挖掘具备核心竞争力的投资标的，力争为基金持有人创造长期稳定的价值回报 农银 汇理投资部副总经理、 基金经理 谷超 近期国际经贸合作呈现积极信号：中美谈判取得阶段性成果，关税之外的相关反制措施基本恢复至 9 月初水平， 9 月后新增反 制举措均已暂停；关税领域，美国将对"芬太尼关税"下调 10% ，我国同步取消对应关税反制措施。更值得关注的是，全球头部 铁矿石企业必和必拓经协商同意，自今年四季度起将部分对华铁矿石贸易采用人民币结算计价，这不仅标志着我国在铁矿石领 域的定价话语权显著提升，更印证了人民币国际化进程的加速推进，人民币资产在全球市场的吸引力将持续增强。 "十五五规划"中提出了十五五时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中首要提出"高质量发展取得显著成效。经济增长保持在合理区 间，全要素生产率稳步提升，居民消费率明显提高 ...