Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to profit-taking ahead of the Christmas holiday, but the overall bullish trend remains supported by central bank gold purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][5] - The U.S. economy and employment performance have delayed the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations to April and September, which may impact gold prices [2] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will rebalance gold and silver weights in early January, potentially leading to technical selling in these metals [2] Group 2 - The recent strong upward movement in gold prices is driven by a deep restructuring of the global monetary credit system, with central banks increasing gold reserves and geopolitical uncertainties raising safe-haven premiums [5] - The Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts are lowering the cost of holding gold, contributing to a structural bull market led by central banks [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook for gold, with potential price targets between $4550 and $4600, while support levels are identified around $4445 to $4455 [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is the significant rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, driven by multiple factors including concerns over the US dollar's credibility and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4][5]. - On October 24, 2023, London spot gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange reported gold prices reaching 1,017 yuan per gram [1][4]. - The surge in gold prices has led to increased interest in alternative investment options, with silver, platinum, and palladium prices rising significantly, with silver prices increasing nearly 50% in Q4 2023 alone [1][4]. Group 2 - Analysts attribute the substantial price increases in precious metals to a combination of factors, including the expansion of US debt, which has made gold and other precious metals appear as safer assets [2][5]. - The industrial demand for silver and platinum has been a key driver of their price increases, with silver being recognized as essential for global economic transformation due to its excellent conductivity and thermal properties [2][5]. - The rapid growth of industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence has further supported the demand for silver, contributing to its price surge [2][5].

Group 1: Labor Market Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000 [1][6] - Continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million, seasonally adjusted [1][6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years, partly due to technical factors related to government shutdowns [1][6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3%, allowing the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates [2][7] - The economic growth is attributed to deregulation and capital spending, leading to a "no-inflation boom" [2][7] - If the economy maintains a 3% growth rate, it could result in lower inflation, with the Fed able to adjust rates based on neutral rate estimates [2][7] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index showed slight gains, trading around 97.90, supported by positive jobless claims data [3][8] - The euro experienced a slight decline, trading around 1.1780, influenced by profit-taking and the strength of the dollar [4][9] - The British pound also saw minor losses, trading around 1.3500, affected by the dollar's performance and expectations regarding interest rates [5][10]

摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，国际黄金市场休市，昨日在亚盘将历史新高刷新至4520美元上 方，随后持续回落，盘中一度大跌超70美元，但美盘收复部分失地，最终收跌0.12%。近期美国与委内 瑞拉的地缘关系调整、伊朗与以色列的潜在冲突、俄乌... 早在11月7日，美国"乔治.华盛顿"号核动力航母战斗群进入韩国。美国此举严重加剧朝鲜半岛和地区的 军事紧张和形势不稳定。谈话称，朝鲜将大力提升防卫力量来保障国家利益，并将考虑针对美国核武力 示威采取应对措施，而且将以对称和非对称原则选择其实行方式和时间点。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市，国际黄金市场休市，昨日在亚盘将历史新高刷新至4520美元上方， 随后持续回落，盘中一度大跌超70美元，但美盘收复部分失地，最终收跌0.12%。近期美国与委内瑞拉 的地缘关系调整、伊朗与以色列的潜在冲突、俄乌冲突的不确定性，以及美元疲软和美联储降息预期升 温等多重因素，合力为金价提供上涨动能。 日图上看，昨日日图收线，收取一根具有长下等长的影线，虽然多头依然保持着良好的上升趋势，但上 升的力度已经有一定的减弱，可能会重新进入短暂的震荡蓄力，随后直 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have experienced a decline after several days of increase, with most brands dropping between 8 to 16 yuan per gram, while some prices remained stable [1] - The highest gold price in the market today is 1398 yuan per gram, while the lowest is 1300 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 98 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have also seen a significant drop, with a specific example being Chow Sang Sang's platinum price falling by 44 yuan per gram to 888 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling prices have also decreased, with notable differences among brands; for instance, the recycling price for gold is 991 yuan per gram [2] - The international gold market saw fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a high of 4525.19 USD per ounce before closing at 4480.09 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.07% [4] - The market is currently experiencing reduced liquidity due to the Christmas holiday, which has amplified price volatility, while expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have provided some support for gold prices [4]

周三，在宏观经济信号、政策预期以及全球市场供应面不确定性加剧的综合支撑下，黄金和白银在欧洲交易中延续了势头。 【华通白银网12月25日】•美国GDP 4.3%的强劲增长缓和了上行空间，但消费者信心疲软令风险情绪保持谨慎。 •市场已消化对2026年美联储多次降息的预期，从而降低了收益率前景，进而强化了黄金和白银的看涨基础。 •供应方面的不确定性和贸易中断加剧了假日交易清淡期间黄金和白银的防御性资金流入。 市场概述 这种支撑被美国经济数据的弹性部分抵消。美国经济分析局报告称，美国经济第三季度的年化增长率为4.3%，远高于普遍预期。强劲的 经济增长通常会支撑美元，这可能会限制贵金属的上涨势头。 与此同时，消费者信心数据走软，世界大型企业联合会12月消费者信心指数下滑至89.1，表明美国家庭存在潜在的谨慎情绪。 随着年末流动性趋于稀薄，投资者重新展现出将贵金属作为投资组合对冲工具的偏好，而非短期交易。 供应风险和市场谨慎提振贵金属 贵金属持续受益于因全球贸易中断和能源相关供应问题而抬升的风险意识。近期关键生产地区影响航运和大宗商品流动的立法举措，为 全球市场增添了一层不确定性，促使投资者转向配置黄金、白银等传统上被视 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, driven by a declining USD index and increased demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The offshore RMB reached a high of 6.9965 against the USD, while the onshore RMB was reported at 7.0062, marking a new high since September 27, 2024 [2]. - The People's Bank of China set the RMB/USD central parity rate at 7.0392, an increase of 79 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.0471, indicating a strengthening trend [2]. - Analysts attribute the RMB's appreciation to two main factors: the USD index falling below 100 due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased corporate demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [2]. Group 2: Implications for Individuals and Investments - The appreciation of the RMB will lower costs for individuals needing to exchange currency for studying abroad or traveling, and it will enhance the cost-effectiveness of imported goods [4]. - Investment strategies should consider adjusting foreign exchange asset allocations to capitalize on current exchange rates, while maintaining caution towards USD-related financial products [4]. - Sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation, such as technology, should be prioritized for investment, while avoiding export-oriented assets sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations [4][3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, both platinum and palladium have entered the adjustment phase. For the long - term, a long - position view is maintained for platinum, while palladium's long - term supply - demand tends to loosen but the price bottom has some support [3][4][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium futures prices dropped significantly. The platinum main contract opened 4.07% lower at 630.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract opened 8.54% lower at 523.95 yuan/gram. The sharp rise in platinum and palladium futures was due to market speculation, leading to the widening of spreads and the formation of risk - free arbitrage opportunities. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented trading measures on December 23 to manage price risks. Also, some funds started taking profits before the Christmas and New Year holidays [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: In 2026, with the rise in prices and profit recovery, major mining companies are expected to maintain stable production, but overall output is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 17.8 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and global palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 298.4 tons respectively. However, short - term supply risks from extreme weather, labor disputes, and power shortages should be watched [4] - **Demand**: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum's industrial demand and the growth of jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may also be stimulated. Global platinum demand is expected to grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure and is expected to decline 2.7% to 282.4 tons [4] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage of global platinum supply and a 16.9 - ton surplus of global palladium supply [4] Summary and Strategy - **Platinum**: In the long - term, the Fed's policies and supply concentration give an upward drive to platinum prices, and demand will expand steadily. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity, so a long - position view is maintained. In the short - term, the NYMEX platinum is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 2400 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX platinum between 510 - 700 yuan/gram. It is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for price rebounds. Also, when the platinum - palladium spread is low, it is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and continue to pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Palladium**: Long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term geopolitical issues in Russia keep the spot market tight. With the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle, the palladium price bottom has some support. The NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 2000 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 yuan/gram. Palladium is also in the short - term adjustment phase, and long - position reduction has been previously suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities can still be monitored [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the offshore RMB against the USD, highlighting its significance as it broke the psychological barrier of 7.0, reaching a low of 6.99853 for the first time in 2024, with the onshore rate also rising to a new high of 7.0392 [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a "first decline, then rise, and fluctuating increase" pattern, starting the year around 7.27 and hitting a low of 7.42879 on April 8 due to the Fed's hawkish stance [2][3]. - A turning point occurred in the second half of the year as expectations of Fed rate cuts grew, leading to a decline in the USD index and a subsequent strengthening of the RMB, which broke the 7.1 mark on September 17 and accelerated its appreciation in December [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The primary driver of the RMB's recent strength is the weakening trend of the USD index, influenced by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, which caused the USD index to fall below 100, benefiting non-USD currencies including the RMB [5]. - Seasonal demand for corporate currency settlement has also played a crucial role, as companies typically increase their settlement activities towards year-end, particularly when the RMB is appreciating, creating a cycle of "appreciation-settlement-further appreciation" [6]. - The central bank's liquidity management and expectations guidance have been significant, as it has not suppressed the RMB's appreciation and has adjusted counter-cyclical factors positively, indicating support for the current appreciation trend [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Market institutions express cautious optimism regarding the RMB's ability to maintain and effectively break the 7.0 barrier, with many predicting a continued appreciation in 2026 due to the structural weakness of the USD index and favorable economic conditions [8][9]. - Forecasts suggest that the RMB could reach levels between 6.7 and 6.8 by the end of 2026, with some analysts predicting the appreciation trend could extend into 2027, potentially reaching 6.20 to 6.30 [8][9].

当地时间周三，美国股市因传统节假日临近提前结束交易，市场整体交投清淡。反映市场对标普500指 数未来波动预期的"恐慌指数"VIX跌至一年来新低，表明投资者对未来短期出现风险事件的担忧情绪得 到缓解。同时，市场仍预计美联储明年至少降息两次，降息预期拉动房地产、金融等周期股普遍上涨， 美国三大股指周三集体上涨。截至收盘，道指涨0.60%，标普500指数涨0.32%，纳指涨0.22%。其中， 道指与标普500指数均创收盘历史新高。 24日国际金价微跌 白银期价再创新高 贵金属方面，国际金价在周二站稳每盎司4500美元关口并创下历史新高后，部分投资者选择获利了结， 周三金价微跌。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4502.8美元，跌幅为 0.06%。 国际金价在周二站稳每盎司4500美元关口并创下历史新高后，部分投资者选择获利了结，周三金价微 跌。白银期价周三延续强劲涨势，连续第四个交易日创下历史新高。有分析人士指出，银价快速攀升过 程中包含大量投机头寸，投资者需警惕银价短线大幅回调的风险。 24日美国三大股指集体收涨 道指与标普500指数创收盘历史新高 为拓展推理芯片业务 英伟达挖走一AI初创 ...