Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4600 per ounce, having faced a slight decline from a record high of $4615.73 per ounce, with a drop of approximately 0.2% [1] - The unexpected drop in initial jobless claims by 9000 to 198000, significantly lower than the expected 215000, has strengthened the US dollar, pushing the dollar index to a six-week high of 99.49 [3] - The strong employment data has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, with futures indicating a delay in the next rate cut to June, down from a previous 50% chance in March to 21.6% [3] - Rising bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 4.156%, have made holding gold less attractive due to higher opportunity costs [4] - Geopolitical factors, particularly President Trump's easing rhetoric regarding Iran, have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to decreased demand [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are showing signs of consolidation around high levels, with potential for a brief correction before continuing to strengthen, although traders should monitor the resistance at $4640 [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest attempting short positions below $4620, with a stop loss at $4634 and targets around $4560 to $4530 [7]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices are experiencing a pullback, with spot silver falling below $90 per ounce and London silver down over 1% as of the report date [2] - Analyst Kyle Rodda indicates that stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported a decrease of 9,000 in initial jobless claims, bringing the total to 198,000, which is below the expected 215,000 by Reuters economists [2] Group 2 - Despite the pullback in precious metal prices, silver demand is at an all-time high, with the U.S. Mint halting silver sales [4] - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.05% to 1,074.80 tons, marking the highest level in over three and a half years [4] - Vanda Research reports that silver has become the most crowded commodity trade, with individual investors rapidly purchasing silver [4] - Analysts from Yide Futures suggest that current investment and physical demand remain strong, with potential downside for silver prices mainly stemming from financial attributes, particularly the weakening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [4]

基本面： 周五（01月16）亚洲时段黄金价格震荡盘整，国际黄金价格延续回落态势，现货金价下探至4605美元/盎司附近。美国就业数据表现强于预期，推动美元指 数升至多周高位，成为压制贵金属的核心因素。投资者对美联储短期降息预期进一步降温，资金更多流向美元资产。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，截至1月 10日当周，首次申请失业救济人数降至19.8万，明显低于市场预期的21.5万，也较前值修正后的20.7万进一步下降。该数据表明劳动力市场韧性依旧，为美 元提供了新的上行动能。 "近期数据使市场对美联储在上半年采取行动的预期趋于观望，美元指数处于多周高位，这对黄金构成明显阻力。"除货币政策因 素外，地缘局势的阶段性缓和也削弱了黄金的传统避险属性。此前市场担忧中东局势可能升级，推动金价一度走强，但随着紧张情绪有所降温，部分避险资 金出现离场迹象。 目前黄金行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 黄金技术图表显示目前K线支撑位4560附近 2. 大周期MACD图形呈现均线相交箭头向上大趋势看涨，目前盘整为主要MACD亚盘方向。能量柱显示波峰平缓且处于能量柱0轴上方且能量减弱。市场活 跃 度减弱，交易需要 ...

有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/02-2026/01/15） 供需向好叠加宏观情绪转暖，有色金属集体上涨 2026 年 1 月 16 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 行情回顾。截至2026年1月15日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨13.03%，跑赢 沪深300指数10.40个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第3名。截至2026年1月 15日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，小金属板块上涨16.67%，贵金属板块 上涨16.53%，工业金属板块上涨12.56%，能源金属板块上涨10.97%，金属新 材料板块上涨8.10%。 周 报 有色金属行业重要新闻及观点 风险提示：宏观经济波动风险、行业下游需求不及预期风险、原材料价格波 动风险、在建项目进程不及预期、美联储再度施行紧缩性货币政策、行业内 部竞争加剧等风险。 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgz ...

Group 1 - Gold prices are under pressure, currently reported at $4595.27 per ounce, down 0.44%, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced geopolitical tensions [1] - The unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 198,000, the lowest since November, has provided upward momentum for the dollar, impacting gold negatively [1] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly regarding Iran, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - President Trump is delaying decisions on actions against Iran, allowing for more time for Israel to prepare for potential retaliation, which may affect market sentiment [2] - The Senate has passed a package of spending bills, reducing political uncertainty and slightly lowering safe-haven demand for gold [2] - Recent trading patterns in the gold market indicate a potential for upward movement, with specific price levels identified for buying opportunities [3]

今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于89.17一线上方，今日开盘于92.30美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报89.71美元/盎司，下跌2.71%，最高触及92.64美元/盎司，最低下探89.53美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 资本公司分析师Kyle Rodda在一份报告中写道："今年年初，美元走势较为坚挺。美国周度初请数据以 及一些制造业调查结果均好于预期，这降低了美联储即将降息的预期概率。" 目前据CME"美联储观察"：美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为5%，维持利率不变的概率为95%。到3月 累计降息25个基点的概率为20.8%，维持利率不变的概率为78.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.9%。 【最新comex白银行情解析】 多头占据明显图表优势，下一个上行目标是推动期货价格收于100.00美元的强劲技术阻力位上方；空头 的下一个下行目标是将期货价格跌破80.00美元的坚实支撑位。第一阻力位见于隔夜创下的历史高点 93.70美元，其次是94.00美元；下一个支撑位为隔夜低点86.125美元，其次是85.00美元。 【要闻速递】 美元周五有望实现 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot silver is around $90.68 per ounce, down 1.83% from the opening price of $92.38, with a high of $92.78 and a low of $90.21, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - Strong economic data released on Thursday, including a decrease in initial jobless claims and a 0.4% increase in import prices, led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 4.156% [2] - The market's optimistic outlook on the economy is reflected in the positive spread of 59.6 basis points between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting a cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The recent price action in silver shows a critical resistance level between $93 and $94, with a potential for significant pullback if this level is not breached [2] - Key support for silver is identified in the $86 to $87 range, with further potential declines expected if this support fails, possibly leading to prices dropping below $80 [2] - The market is advised to monitor support levels at $78 and $74-$73 for potential stabilization before any upward movement [2]

1月16日，美元指数延续震荡走强态势，截至当日亚市早盘报99.3821，较前一交易日纽约汇市收盘价上 涨0.23%，盘中最高触及99.4946，最低下探99.0384，日内波幅超45个基点，交投活跃度较高，多空博 弈情绪升温。目前美元指数已站稳99.3关键关口，连续两个交易日收涨，短期强势格局进一步巩固，不 过中长期仍受美国经济基本面、政策周期及全球资金流向等多重因素制约，上行节奏或存反复。 但美元上行空间仍存明显制约，中长期下行压力并未实质性缓解。从经济基本面看，美国能源行业受国 际油价持续低位震荡拖累，页岩油企业开采活动持续放缓，钻机数量较去年同期减少超15%，能源板块 对GDP的贡献度边际下滑，间接压制经济复苏动能。从资金流向看，新兴市场资产吸引力稳步上升，近 期巴西、印度等新兴市场央行维持利率稳定，部分经济体开启降息周期，与美联储政策差逐步收窄，推 动全球资金向高收益新兴市场资产分流，持续对美元构成边际压力。此外，机构普遍预测美联储上半年 仍将启动降息周期，累计降息50个基点的预期仍占主流，长期宽松政策基调未改，叠加美国政府债务规 模突破34万亿美元，财政可持续性引发市场担忧，均对美元长期估值形成压制 ...

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to simultaneous all-time highs in the prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin, a phenomenon not seen in the 20-year career of BMO analyst Helen Amos [1] - Concerns over regional conflicts, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, are driving investor sentiment and supporting price increases in key strategic non-ferrous metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant weakness, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs in the previous two months, indicating a potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.18%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.09%), Jiangxi Copper (up 5.56%), and Jinchuan Group (up 5.15%) [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth Group [2]

1月16日，美元周五有望实现连续第三周的上涨。此前美国公布的经济数据表现良好，降低了市场对美 联储短期内降息的预期。联邦基金期货市场将下一次降息的时间预期推迟到了6月，原因是就业数据有 所改善，同时央行决策者也对通胀问题表示了担忧。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 资本公司分析师Kyle Rodda在一份报告中写道："今年年初，美元走势较为坚挺。美国周度初请数据以 及一些制造业调查结果均好于预期，这降低了美联储即将降息的预期概率。" ...