Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in international gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3,470 per ounce, is attributed to expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining U.S. economic data, and pressure from the Trump administration on the Fed [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 1, spot gold reached $3,475.25 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose to $3,543.7 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang seeing price rises of 0.59% and 0.89% respectively [1]. - The gold jewelry index in the A-share market surged by 4.77%, with companies like Western Gold and Yuguang Gold rising over 9% [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analyst Song Jiangzhen predicts that gold prices could reach between $3,600 and $3,800 per ounce, with a potential increase of $150 to $200 after surpassing $3,500 [2]. - Factors supporting the upward trend in gold prices include a declining U.S. dollar index, concerns over U.S. political stability, and preferences for gold reserves in certain U.S. states [2]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicated a 2.9% year-over-year increase in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [3].

跟踪精度方面，截至2025年8月29日，黄金ETF基金近1月跟踪误差为0.002%，在可比基金中跟踪精度较高。 流动性方面，黄金ETF基金盘中换手3.56%，成交10.28亿元。拉长时间看，截至8月29日，黄金ETF基金近1月日均成交5.19亿元，排名可比基金前2。 消息面上，美联储降息预期大幅升温。据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率仅为12.6%，降息25个基点的概率高达87.4%。美 国7月核心个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨2.9%，符合市场预期，进一步强化了美联储降息的预期。 避险需求增加是另一重要因素。美国总统与美联储官员的争端，特别是试图解雇美联储理事库克的行为，引发市场对美联储独立性的质疑。这或影响避险资 金从美元资产转向黄金，进一步推升金价。 中信建投证券认为，美联储青睐的通胀指标核心PCE温和上涨，稳定了市场对美联储在9月议息会议降息的预期，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的事件持续发 酵，严重威胁着美联储独立性，美元走弱，激发黄金货币属性与铜的金融属性，商品价格突破前高在即，打开权益标的上行空间。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金最新融资买入额达1379.77 ...

9月1日，截至发稿前，COMEX黄金价格涨超1%，突破3550美元/盎司，达到3552.2美元/盎司，创历史新高。 国际金价再创历史新高，A股多个黄金股大涨。 美国商务部上周五发布的报告显示，7月个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数中，剔除食品和能源成本的核心通胀率按季节调整后的年化增速为2.9%，较6月上升0.1 个百分点，创下自2月以来的最高水平。 美联储的通胀目标为2%，因此上周五的报告显示，当前美国经济通胀水平仍未达到美联储认为的 "适宜区间"。 市场普遍预计，美联储今年内可能会降息一次甚至两次，这对包括黄金和白银在内的大宗商品价格构成整体支撑。 此外，多家国际金融机构看涨黄金，也在一定程度上支撑了金价。瑞士银行目前已将2026年上半年国际金价目标价上调至每盎司3700美元。美国银行的分析 师预计，到2026年上半年国际金价将触及每盎司4000美元高位。 瑞达期货日前发布的研究报告称，尽管美国通胀数据延续韧性，但美元走势并未得到支撑。通胀粘性与就业通胀放缓走势的"不对称"对美债长端收益率构成 双向拉扯，导致实际利率缺乏趋势性上行动力，美元难以获得实际利差优势，提振黄金货币属性。本周五公布的非农就业报告将成为 ...

Group 1 - The recent U.S. inflation data for July indicates rising prices and slow inflation, posing risks to the market, leading to a collective decline in U.S. stocks last week, with the Dow down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.10%, and Nasdaq down 0.19% [1] - International gold prices rose nearly 3% last week and increased over 5% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have heightened investor risk aversion, contributing to a 2.86% increase in international gold prices last week [3] Group 2 - International oil prices saw a slight increase last week, with WTI crude up approximately 0.55% and Brent crude up about 0.58%, driven by a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and ongoing tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to be a key indicator of economic health and will test market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs suggests that the August non-farm payroll data will be crucial in determining the extent and pace of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, especially if job growth remains weak [7][9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released this week, with the previous report indicating slight economic activity growth and a record low mention of inflation [9] - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump has raised questions about the Fed's independence, impacting market confidence in dollar assets [9]

9月1日，国内商品期货早盘开盘，沪银涨超2%，烧碱涨超1%，沪镍、沪金、生猪、鸡蛋、豆粕等小幅上涨。 国际现货黄金高开，一度向上触及3450美元/盎司。 过去几天，金价持续上涨，国际现货黄金价格在一周内涨超80美元/盎司，创下近4个月新高，日线录得四连阳。 8月30日，COMEX黄金期货涨1.2%，报3516.1美元/盎司，当周累涨2.86%，8月累涨5.2%；COMEX白银期货涨2.64%，报40.75美元/盎司，当周累涨超 4%，8月累涨10.76%。 高盛预计到2025年年底，金价将升至每盎司3700美元；到2026年中期，金价将进一步攀升至每盎司4000美元。 多家国际金融机构同样看涨金价，瑞士银行目前已将2026年上半年国际金价目标价上调至每盎司3700美元。美国银行分析师预计，金价的涨势将继续，到 2026年上半年，金价将触及每盎司4000美元。分析师称："在通胀加剧之际，潜在的降息为美元贬值创造了肥沃的土壤。在通胀持续走高的环境下降息， 极有可能推高金价。" 本周，美国就业数据将是金价能否突破历史高点的重要参考。周二的8月ISM制造业PMI、周三的JOLTS职位空缺、周四的ADP就业数据、每周失 ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

早盘沪金快速上涨，早盘再次突破800元/克，涨幅2%，沪银涨幅超过3.5%，再次破历史新高，接近9800元/千 克。 | 沪银主力 | | | | | | 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9719.00 334.00 3.56% | | | | | | 1 交易中 2025-09-01 11:11:10 | | | 今开:9394.00 | | 昨结:9385.00 | | | 最高: 9771.00 | 最低: 9385.00 | | | 均价:9569.30 | | 今结: -- | | | 涨停:10511.00 | 跌停: 8258.00 | | | 昨收:9386.00 | | 日增仓:34488.00 | | | 成交量: 745887.00 | 持仓: 297358.00 | | | 5日 分时 | 日K | 圈K 月K | રસ્ત્રે | 15分 | 30分 60分 | LT === | 打开曲合APP | | 2025/09/01/-11:11 价 9733.00 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 1 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 4 月下旬至今伦敦黄金整体上处于 3100-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡，国际 贸易形势缓和与金融市场走好削弱黄金的避险需求，但国际贸易货币体系重组以 及美联储降息预期继续支撑金价。我们判断国际贸易货币体系重组带来的避险需 求和储备分散化需求将继续支撑黄金长周期牛市，特朗普同时推进国内外多项重 磅改革导致经济增长疲软与央行降息预期将继续支撑黄金中周期牛市；但金价持 续偏强运行以及极高的市盈率水平也意味着金价波动性显著增强，美国就业市场 疲软为美联储重启降息进程提供必要条件但通 ...

八月的国际金融市场，上演了一场惊心动魄的黄金突围战。 当纽约商品交易所的金价定格在每盎司3516.1美元时，整个华尔街为之震动。单日暴涨1.2%，周涨幅达2.86%，月度累计飙升5%——这是自今年4月以来黄 金最辉煌的战绩。而在大洋彼岸的中国市场，黄金零售价应声突破700元/克大关，各大金柜前再度排起长队。 这波突如其来的黄金牛市，背后隐藏着怎样不为人知的逻辑？ 第二条则牵扯白宫与美联储的微妙关系。特朗普突然免去美联储理事库克的职务，这场人事地震引发连锁反应。投资者突然意识到，美联储的独立性可能受 到政治干预，美元资产的可靠性被打上问号。当信心出现裂缝，黄金就成为最好的避风港。 美国银行首席分析师迈克尔·哈特内特在最新报告中指出："这两大事件共同造就了黄金的完美风暴。一方面降息预期降低持有黄金的机会成本，另一方面政 治风险提振避险需求，形成罕见的双重利好。" 更值得关注的是，市场对美联储的降息预期正在自我实现。期货市场数据显示，交易员预计9月降息概率已升至75%，年内可能迎来两次降息。这种预期正 在重塑全球资产配置格局——美债收益率曲线趋平，美元指数承压，大量资金正从美元资产转向黄金市场。 金融机构的动向印证 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in September is expected to exhibit structural characteristics, with investors needing to closely monitor policy developments, economic data releases, and changes in trading volume [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Investors should flexibly adjust their investment strategies based on market conditions [1] - Focus areas for investment include technology growth sectors (AI, semiconductors, innovative pharmaceuticals), cyclical sectors (resources, manufacturing overseas), and certain defensive sectors (finance, consumer) [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Changes in the expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are a significant variable affecting global asset pricing, particularly impacting resource commodities and global capital flows [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - A "cautiously optimistic" mindset is recommended, with an emphasis on balanced allocation, buying on dips, and avoiding chasing high prices [1]