第一金杨生，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 今日伦敦金在剧烈震荡后重新站上5000美元/盎司大关，市场正处在重大宏观数据公布前、地缘局势不明与节前资金流动共同作用的高波动震荡 期，方向尚不明朗。 综合分析 金价在收复5000美元心理关口后，短期结构有所转强，但技术指标显示上涨动能减弱，存在回踩确认需求。 1.多空交织的因素 近期美国ADP就业、JOLTS职位空缺等数据显现劳动力市场降温迹象，叠加美联储鸽派官员的降息言论，巩固了市场宽松预期，为金价提供支 撑。 被提名的下任美联储主席沃什的潜在政策倾向仍是市场心头的疑虑，尽管其实际影响可能有限，但不确定性仍会扰动市场。此外，芝商所 （CME）近期再度上调期货保证金，旨在为市场降温，可能抑制短期投机。 2. 反复不定的地缘政治风险 海湾地区局势持续紧张，美伊在阿曼的谈判并未达成有效共识，未来冲突可能性仍然存在。这种"担忧缓解但未消除"的状态，为黄金提供了脉 冲式的避险支撑，也增加了行情预判的难度。 3. 关键数据与节日流动性影响 本周市场将迎来美国CPI与非农就业数据的发布，预计将引发显著波动。同时，恰逢中国春节长假前最后交易周，部分资金或有退潮迹 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, suggesting stable and multi - allocation [1] - Silver: Bearish, not recommended for participation [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, suggesting long - term holding and short - term profit - taking [1][7] - Zinc: Neutral in the short - term, suggesting waiting for more macro guidance; bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [1][11] - Lead: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral, wide - range oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, price under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral, waiting for stabilization [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: With the decline of US inflation expectations, the market sentiment has recovered after adjustment. In the long - term, due to the reshaping of the geopolitical order and central banks' continuous gold purchases, the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1][3] - **Silver**: Although there are long - term supply - demand gaps and favorable factors from global fiscal policies, short - term market adjustments continue, and the risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - term participation [1] - **Copper**: In the short - term, approaching the Spring Festival, market risk - aversion sentiment rises, demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and high global copper inventories suppress the upside space. In the long - term, it is still optimistic due to copper's strategic position and green demand [1][6][7] - **Zinc**: In the short - term, speculation enthusiasm cools down, demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival, and inventories are accumulating. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips due to potential supply challenges [1][10][11] - **Aluminum**: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, alumina costs are low, domestic inventories are accumulating, and downstream开工 rates are declining, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][12][14] - **Nickel**: The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has been digested, domestic high inventories and weak consumption continue, and stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly, so the price rebound is under pressure in the short - term [1][16][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total inventories have been decreasing for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined. Market sentiment has been affected, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before layout [1][20][21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: After a significant adjustment, the prices of gold and silver rebounded on Friday, but market confidence has not been fully restored. Positions and narratives are in an unstable state [2] - **Influencing Factors**: US inflation expectations have declined, and the Chinese central bank has been continuously buying gold. The three pillars supporting the gold price (central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and global policy uncertainty) remain stable, but the market needs time to digest volatility [3] - **Strategy**: Domestic gold should be observed around 1060, and silver around 19000. Gold VIX and silver VIX are still at relatively high levels, and attention should be paid to volatility reduction [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded. Global copper inventories are at a high level, and downstream demand is weak approaching the Spring Festival [5][6] - **Influencing Factors**: Global copper mines are in short supply, and the growth of copper smelting capacity has been curbed. The output in January increased slightly year - on - year, and is expected to decline slightly in February [6] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash and be empty during the holiday. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term Shanghai copper should focus on the range of 99500 - 104000 yuan/ton, and LME copper on 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc is in a range - bound consolidation [9][10] - **Influencing Factors**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026. Domestic zinc ingot output increased in January, and inventories are accumulating approaching the Spring Festival. Traditional demand is weak, but emerging demand may make up for part of the gap [10] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce positions and control risks, waiting for more macro guidance. In the long - term, it is advisable to buy on dips. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton, and LME zinc on 3250 - 3300 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina prices declined [12][13] - **Influencing Factors**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum industry is profitable, but inventories are increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, and alumina inventories are still under pressure [14][15] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short - term, paying attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is 22000 - 24500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices rebounded under pressure [16][17] - **Influencing Factors**: Indonesia may reduce nickel ore production quotas in 2026. Domestic pure nickel inventories are accumulating, and downstream stainless steel inventories have rebounded slightly. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season [18] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits and wait and see, paying attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is 120000 - 140000 yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went low, and recovered the 130,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [20] - **Influencing Factors**: The external atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals is weak, and the market liquidity is insufficient. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors, and the inventory is decreasing in the off - season. The market is worried about inventory accumulation in the peak season in March [21] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty - position mainly, with the range of 130000 - 145000 yuan/ton [22]

Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's economic growth target is set between 4.5% and 5.5%, with a median forecast of 4.8%, indicating a stable economic outlook [2][4] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with a median forecast for fixed asset investment growth at 3%, which is 6.8 percentage points higher than the actual value for 2025 [6][2] - Consumer retail sales are projected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, slightly above the 2025 actual growth [6][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to increase by 0.8%, matching the growth rate of 2025 [6][2] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will maintain a loose stance, with a median forecast for the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 2.9%, indicating a potential interest rate cut in 2026 [3][14] - The exchange rate of the RMB is expected to appreciate by 2.6% against the USD by the end of 2026, with a median forecast of 6.85 for the USD/RMB exchange rate [3][28] Export Performance - The median forecast for export growth (in USD) in 2026 is 5%, reflecting China's resilient export performance despite reduced reliance on the US market [7][2] Price Trends - The CPI growth forecast for 2026 is 0.8%, indicating a continued moderate recovery in price levels [15][18] - Factors contributing to price recovery include increased consumer demand and ongoing capacity management in key domestic industries [18][19] Structural Adjustments in Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has introduced structural monetary policy tools to support targeted sectors, including agriculture, small enterprises, and technological innovation [9][10] - The focus on structural adjustments aims to enhance the efficiency of financial resource allocation to key areas and weak links in the economy [10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy needs strengthening. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up significantly, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. With the Spring Festival approaching, risk control should be emphasized, and positions can be appropriately reduced [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, precious metals have risen significantly recently, and speculative sentiment has increased significantly. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the medium term, the price of finished steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and rebar demand is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, the market has entered the off - season of demand, and the progress of winter storage needs to be monitored. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, rebar weekly output has increased, and supply pressure has increased. Currently, rebar inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation process around the Spring Festival has begun. Overall, rebar prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are not significantly different from those of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue the weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Iron Ore**: From an industrial perspective, the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore demand is at a low level. On the supply side, in 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, current major coal - producing areas maintain normal production rhythms, and domestic coking coal production is stable. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, future supply will decline, and coal mine shipment pressure is small. On the demand side, downstream coking enterprises purchase on demand, and intermediate - link purchasing attitudes have become more cautious. For coke, the first - round increase in the spot purchase price has been officially implemented. Coke supply remains stable; the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and coke demand is weak, putting pressure on coke prices. Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Since 2026, ferroalloy production has remained at a low level, demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. Currently, the downward space for costs at a low level is limited, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening, and manganese ore inventory is at a low level. In the short term, supply may continue to shrink. Under the conditions of low and rigid costs, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range after a pullback [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran has encountered difficulties, and geopolitical contradictions are beneficial to crude oil prices. CFTC data shows that funds are still bullish on crude oil prices. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue [23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, which is beneficial to fuel oil prices. The rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the rebound of fuel oil prices. There is still room for fuel oil to rise [26]. - **Polyolefins**: In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually entering the holiday stage, and market demand will be significantly reduced. On the supply side, some suppliers who have not yet taken holidays still maintain active shipment operations [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [31]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to show an oscillation trend. Due to macro black - swan events this week, gold and silver have plummeted, and the sentiment has spread to the rubber sector, causing prices to follow the overall correction of commodities. It is mainly necessary to control positions before the festival [32]. - **PVC**: The key to price trends and inventory reduction speed lies in the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival. If the downstream resumes work quickly and the demand for infrastructure and other projects can be effectively activated, the inventory pressure is expected to be gradually relieved. On the supply side, the PVC industry operating rate remains at a high level. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of downstream pipe and profile enterprises have significantly declined, and the willingness to stock up has weakened. At the cost - profit end, external - purchased calcium - carbide - method enterprises are still in deep losses, and the profits of chlor - alkali integration are also not good, and the cost end supports the price. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [34]. - **Urea**: It is expected to show an oscillation - and - upward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of Indian tenders, domestic policy news, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [36]. - **PX**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. In the short term, PX may mainly oscillate and adjust. It is necessary to participate cautiously, be vigilant against the risk of external - market crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [37]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, and the room for further upward movement may be limited. PTA inventory remains at a low level. Recently, there have been few changes on the supply side, the demand side has entered the holiday mode for the Spring Festival, and the cost - end support is limited. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from January to February. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil changes, it is mainly necessary to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The content is the same as that of PTA, with the same analysis and suggestions [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: As the Spring Festival approaches, short - fiber supply shrinks, terminal - factory stocking decreases, and loom load drops to a low point. However, the low inventory of short - fiber may provide bottom support. In the short term, short - fiber still trades based on the cost - end logic. The cost support weakens, and it may follow the raw - material price. It is mainly necessary to observe cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [42]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but its main logic still lies in the cost end. It is expected that bottle - chips will mainly follow the cost - end operation in the future. It is necessary to participate cautiously before the festival, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals continue to be loose. The output has decreased slightly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream glass manufacturers still mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The device operation is stable, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals show off - season characteristics, are occasionally affected by the intraday sentiment of the energy sector, lack substantial support, and should still be treated with caution [44]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. The number of production lines in operation has decreased, factory - and trader - inventories have increased. The market is mainly in a loose tone. The inventory of manufacturers is concentrated and transferred to trader inventory, and it is expected that there will still be pressure for the release of market goods after the festival. In the short term, it is driven by the energy sector, showing a slight oscillation - and - upward trend, but the sustainability is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply remains at a high level. Inventory has decreased slightly due to the shipment of delivery warrants, but the absolute value is still at a high level in the same period of history. Before the festival, downstream purchases on demand, and the willingness to accept high - price caustic soda is small. The 02 contract is about to end trading, and the other contracts return to the fundamental logic. It has significant seasonal characteristics - high output, low demand, and high inventory. Recently, the energy sector has oscillated a lot, the cost expectation has increased, and the disk game has intensified. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not significantly improved, it should be treated with caution [48]. - **Pulp**: Inventory continues to accumulate. Domestic supply has also slightly increased. Downstream performance is divided. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption of household paper is slightly better, while other cultural and packaging paper categories are sluggish. The overall market operation is inactive, and the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market is general. The continuous accumulation of port inventory intensifies the expectation of supply relaxation; the terminal demand is temporarily stagnant, and the market lacks a trading basis; the demand for capital repatriation before the festival causes some holders to sell at a discount. The overall support is weak, and it is expected that the pre - festival disk will have limited fluctuations [50]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fallen back, and the fundamentals show that the resumption time of mines in Jiangxi, China, is still uncertain, and the mine end may be in a tight - balance state. From the perspective of lithium - salt supply, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continues to decline. On the consumption side, as the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is almost over. The energy - storage sector performs prominently, the production schedules of leading energy - storage battery enterprises remain high, and the demand for power batteries has also improved. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually being reduced, and the current inventory has left the absolute high level. The short - term supply - demand mismatch provides short - term support for the price. Coupled with the frequent external geopolitical conflicts, the importance of strategic minerals is highlighted, and the market is constantly worried about the external stable supply and liquidity of lithium resources. The support for lithium carbonate is still strong, but the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control should be noted [52]. - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the nomination of the Fed chairman has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the re - evaluation of global capital; the risk preference in the capital market has cooled, weakening the enthusiasm for commodity allocation; the US ADP data is lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week is higher than expected and the previous value. Attention should be paid to the non - farm data. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, terminal and processing enterprises have mostly completed pre - festival stocking, and the spot - market trading has become dull. The smelting end has few maintenance plans, and with the supplement of scrap for production, the output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the global visible inventory of electrolytic copper continues to rise, but the actual available quantity is relatively limited. Market sentiment has declined, and coupled with the weakening of fundamentals, copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival [53]. - **Aluminum**: The cost support of alumina is not strong, the operating capacity has decreased month - on - month, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and production enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival. The inventory - accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. Although the global visible inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the absolute value is still low. Alumina is still regarded as bearish. If the output decline is significant in the near future, the price may be temporarily strong. This month, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are bearish, so as speculative funds leave the market, aluminum prices may be under pressure [56]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply (domestic zinc + imported zinc) has tightened month - on - month, and the demand - side operating rate will also reach the annual low. The traditional seasonal inventory - accumulation period is late, indicating that there is a certain resilience on the demand side. As market sentiment cools and zinc - ingot inventory accumulates, zinc prices will enter an adjustment period [58]. - **Lead**: Although the supply side is structurally tightened, most primary - lead enterprises and some secondary - lead enterprises will maintain production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the supply will be loose after the festival. The demand side shows a dull performance. Even if the lead price drops, the spot - market trading remains weak. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of primary lead steadily accumulates. Secondary lead still has cost support, but under the influence of the supply - demand structural contradiction, the support may gradually weaken [60]. - **Tin**: The military conflict in the DRC continues, and there are still concerns about the stable production of the mine end. However, the recent repair of the weak US dollar has led to a decline in asset - equity prices. Fundamentally, the explosive approval in Wa State has been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent output will increase. Currently, the domestic processing fee has recovered, and the refined - tin output has stabilized. In terms of imports, the refined - tin imports from Indonesia have resumed, and the tight supply pattern has been alleviated. On the demand side, the tin downstream consumption market presents a complex picture of "pressure in traditional fields and support from emerging fields". Although the overall demand has not shown a strong rebound, it still shows a certain resilience under the structural support of artificial intelligence and new - energy fields. Under the tight supply - demand situation, the visible inventory of refined tin is further reduced, and there is support for the tin price. However, the uncertainty of US policies is relatively large, which affects trading sentiment, and the short - term volatility may increase. Risk control should be noted [62]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's nickel - ore quota plan for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2.6 billion tons, still lower than last year's quota. The nickel production - cost center is expected to rise, and the policy risk in Indonesia has increased. Fundamentally, the nickel - ore price has stabilized. Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mines, and coupled with the rainy season in the Philippines, subsequent nickel - ore production and mining activities may be affected, and there is support for the ore price. In addition, the pressure from stainless steel is transmitted upwards, the losses of downstream nickel - iron plants have increased, and some high - cost nickel - iron plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. Stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off - season, and is still restricted by the weak terminal real - estate consumption. Coupled with the still - sluggish nickel - iron trading, steel mills have a strong psychology of pressing prices, and the real - world consumption is still hard to be optimistic about. There is relatively large upward pressure. The spot trading of refined nickel has weakened, and the domestic inventory is generally stable but still at a relatively high level. Overall, primary nickel is still in an over - supply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies in the future [63]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The Malaysian palm oil has recorded a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks, affected by the weak prices of edible oils in the competing Chicago and Dalian markets. The market expects that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decline. Domestically, China's palm - oil imports in December decreased. Palm - oil inventory is in the middle level of the same period in the past seven years. The catering industry shows certain growth. It may be possible to consider long positions after a pullback [65]. - **Palm Oil**: Canadian rapeseed has stopped rising for three days. Canada's rapeseed inventory has increased year - on - year. The US has issued relevant guidance on clean - fuel production tax credits. China has agreed to reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. China's rapeseed, rapeseed - oil, and rapeseed - meal imports have shown certain changes. China's rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in a relatively high or middle level of the same period in the past seven years. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean meal has risen slightly, and the price of soybean oil has fallen. The overnight US soybean has risen slightly. The soybean - crushing volume of major oil mills has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has increased slightly

2 200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/6 | 4840. 01 | 72. 06 | 4859. 70 | 71.77 | 1092. 72 | | 17944. 00 | 1086. 04 | 17890.00 | | (本表数 | | | ...

Core Insights - The global payment market appears stable on the surface, but significant changes are occurring beneath, with the US dollar still dominant but showing signs of decline [1][3] - The euro has regained some ground, increasing its share to 25.6%, while the Chinese yuan has seen a drop below 3% in the SWIFT system, raising concerns about its internationalization [1][3][12] Group 1: Dollar Dominance - The US dollar remains the uncontested leading currency in the global payment system, holding a 46.94% share, but has decreased from nearly 50% in recent months, reflecting deeper changes [3][5] - The dollar's strength is supported by the petrodollar system, global trade settlement habits, and the attractiveness of US financial markets, but this foundation is being eroded due to the weaponization of the SWIFT system by the US [5][6] - The global economic landscape is shifting from unipolar to multipolar, with emerging markets rising and countries exploring local currency settlements or regional currency cooperation [8][24] Group 2: Euro Resilience - The euro's journey has been tumultuous, experiencing a peak of 39% in payment share in May 2021, only to drop to 21% due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [10][12] - The euro has rebounded to 25.6% by August 2025, indicating that despite geopolitical challenges, economic size and effective policy responses can lead to recovery [12][26] - The euro's resurgence is attributed to the EU's efforts in energy supply chain restructuring and enhancing financial cooperation [12][26] Group 3: Yuan's Alternative Path - The yuan's share in the SWIFT system has been below 3% for several months, but this does not indicate a slowdown in its internationalization, as it is developing its own payment channels [14][19] - China's independent cross-border payment system, CIPS, has expanded significantly, processing over 90 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 and covering 189 countries and regions [16][19] - The establishment of currency swap agreements with over 30 countries, totaling 4.5 trillion yuan, enhances the yuan's liquidity and creates pathways to bypass the dollar [19][26] Group 4: Evolving Payment Landscape - The current global payment market ranks the dollar, euro, and pound as the top three currencies, with the yuan in sixth place, but the real change lies in the diversification of settlement paths [21][24] - The US's use of SWIFT as a tool has prompted other countries to seek independent payment systems, with regions like India and ASEAN exploring local currency settlement mechanisms [23][24] - The emergence of multiple payment systems enhances resilience and provides new opportunities for emerging currencies, indicating that future currency status will depend on convenience, stability, and openness of settlement channels [24][30]

国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-09 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌抛售风险缓解，金银或企稳震荡 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格延续剧烈波动，白银遭遇二次抛售。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）在经历 外盘1月30日的暴跌后，上周一沪金触及跌停，沪银周一、周二连续两日跌停；后在杠杆显 著去化后，市场情绪短期修复，金银略有反弹。但由于美元走强和美国科技股持续遭到抛 售，叠加比特币等加密货币暴跌，市场流动性紧缩风险卷土重来，并再度蔓延至贵金属市 场，金银上周四、周五双双遭到二次抛售，尤其是白银，伴随着CME第6次提保，伦敦现货 白银上周五早盘暴跌至64美元/盎司附近，再创阶段性新低并抹去年内涨幅。（2）直至上 周五，美伊谈判不确定性扰动市场，加上市场流动性恢复，科技股抛压暂缓、美股三大指 数和比特币集体上涨，市场流动性恢复，金银逐步企稳回升。同时，美国2月消费者信心意 外上升至5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper futures, along with corresponding core logics. For gold, the short - term view is to wait and see; for copper, the long - term view is positive. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Last week, the gold market was in a sharp shock and adjustment phase. The London gold spot price fluctuated greatly, closing at about $4960/ounce, and Shanghai gold closed above 1100 yuan/gram on Friday night. [3] - **Market Core Contradiction**: The core contradiction has shifted from pure emotional drive to a re - game of expectations for Fed policies, the rebound of the US dollar, and the long - term credit hedging logic. [3] - **Influencing Factors**: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman was initially seen as a hawkish signal, but due to high US government debt, the long - term tendency of a relatively loose monetary environment in the US may remain. International situation turmoil promotes the safe - haven demand for gold. The US - Iran talks have made the safe - haven demand more stable. Technically, the $5000/ounce level for long - short competition can be focused on. Near the Chinese Spring Festival, overseas volatility is uncertain and capital drive may decline. [3] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: strong; Reference view: wait and see. The core logic is that short - term panic selling has eased, and the long - term trend of de - dollarization remains unchanged. [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, copper prices bottomed out and rebounded, showing an overall shock. The Shanghai copper open interest continued to decline, and the price fluctuated between 100,000 - 105,000 yuan. [4] - **Influencing Factors**: The recent strength of copper prices after the correction is due to the repair of panic in the silver market and the re - pricing of the long - term structural contradiction in the global copper market and major shifts in China's industrial policies. China has stopped over 2 million tons of new copper smelting capacity and signaled to include copper concentrates in the national strategic reserve system, providing long - term industrial support for copper prices. In the short term, the near - term weakness and long - term strength pattern remains, and near the Spring Festival, capital is more willing to settle, resulting in insufficient price drive. [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: strong; Reference view: long - term positive. The core logic is that domestic supply contraction supports copper prices. [1][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish tone on platinum and palladium [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic persists, though risks such as the nomination process and foreign market corrections need to be watched [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 506.00, 498.55, and 491.60 respectively, with price drops of -42.85, -47.45, and -42.25, and percentage drops of -7.81%, -8.69%, and -7.91% respectively. The trading volumes are 27928, 1414, and 623 respectively. The open interest for all three contracts is 12001 [1]. - **Palladium Futures**: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 410.50, 408.45, and 405.55 respectively, with price drops of -26.75, -26.25, and -17.60, and percentage drops of -6.12%, -6.04%, and -4.16% respectively. The trading volumes are 12296, 392, and 177 respectively. The open interest for all three contracts is 4172 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price dropped by -18.48 to 527.99 yuan per gram, a -0.034% change. The London platinum price rose by 279.00 to 2303.00 dollars per ounce, a 0.138% change. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 805.00 and 960.00 yuan per gram respectively, with changes of -89.00 and 0.00 [1]. - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price dropped by -20.00 to 410.00 yuan per gram, a -0.047% change. The Russian palladium price dropped by -351.93 to 4161.93 rubles per gram, a -0.078% change [1]. 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 533.3 ounces to 662,618.73 ounces, while the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 326,637.95 ounces. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum trading volume decreased by 116.0 kilograms to 108.00 kilograms, and the trading value decreased by 6562.1 ten - thousand yuan to 5,635.35 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory decreased by 17582.4 ounces to 190,873.50 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 148,317.64 ounces [1]. 3.4 Related Fluctuations - **Macro - indicators**: The US dollar index decreased by -0.35 to 97.61, the S&P 500 index increased by 133.90 to 6,932.30, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.01 to 4.22, the Nasdaq index increased by 490.62 to 23,031.21, the Dow Jones index increased by 1206.95 to 50,115.67, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate remained unchanged at 6.96 [1]. - **Related Derivatives**: The prices of Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 decreased by -15.64, -16.38, and -16.32 respectively. The prices of Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608 decreased by -1456, -1546, and -1594 respectively [1]. 3.5 Macro News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, in line with Trump - appointed director Milan [2]. - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2]. - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, indicating stable and positive development [2]. - **Payment System Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, with requirements including promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system, accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, and strengthening regulatory measures [3]. 3.6 Comments and Strategies - The long - term bullish logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged. Short - term fluctuations are caused by technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair has affected the prices. Macro factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and the global central bank's gold - buying trend support the long - term value of platinum and palladium. On the industrial side, platinum has a clear supply - demand gap, and palladium has a rigid supply and strong demand [4].