摩根大通认为，随着黄金价格高企，中国央行6月暂停黄金购买的概率大增，这一预期叠加美中贸易紧张局势潜在缓解，可 能导致金价短期回调。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通分析师Avery Chan等在最新研报中表示，中国央行在5月的黄金购买量放缓至6万盎司，与 2024 年初暂停购买前的水平相同。如果黄金价格保持在当前水平，6月暂停购买的可能性已增加至约70%。 叠加中美贸易紧张局势可能缓和的预期，摩根大通认为黄金价格在短期内面临回调风险。然而，基于去美元化趋势以及全 球央行持续购买，摩根大通对黄金在中长期内保持乐观。 中国央行暂停购金可能性升至70% 摩根大通对2018年以来三个购买周期的分析显示，中国央行的月度黄金购买量与月度平均金价呈现恒定等弹性函数关系。 值得注意的是，央行对金价的敏感性在本轮周期中变得更加缺乏弹性——金价每上涨1%，购买量仅下降6%，而在2022年 11月至2024年4月周期中这一比例为12%。摩根大通认为，这表明，鉴于持续的贸易紧张局势 2.0 和去美元化趋势，中国对 黄金储备采取了更具战略性的立场。 至于暂停黄金购买的决定，摩根大通推断中国央行在本轮周期中有一个隐含的最低购买水平，估计约为6 ...

全球资本市场正经历深刻变革。美国银行数据显示，美国股票基金遭遇近三个月来最大规模资金流出。 加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团宣布削减投资组合中的美国资产比重。投资大师吉姆·罗杰斯已清空全部美 股持仓。美元指数今年以来下跌近10%，多家机构预警美元或进入"渐进式衰落"周期。 在这轮全球资金大迁徙中，亚洲市场成为主要受益者。5月外资在印度、韩国等亚洲市场累计买入逾百 亿美元股票。这一数字创下2024年2月以来单月净买入额最高规模。"新债王"冈拉克预计，在美元长期 贬值背景下，以新兴市场为代表的国际股票资产有望继续跑赢美国股市。 美元资产遭遇大规模撤离 在多重不确定因素影响下，全球资金正加速从美国市场撤离。美国银行5月发布的基金经理调查显示， 当前美元资产的配置比例降至近20年来最低水平。该机构最新数据显示，在截至上周三的一周内，美国 股票基金的赎回规模达到约98亿美元。这一数字创下11周以来的新高。 加拿大魁北克储蓄投资集团近期宣布，为减少风险敞口，将削减目前约占投资组合40%的美国资产。世 界著名投资大师、与索罗斯共同创立量子基金的吉姆·罗杰斯近日表示，已卖出所有美国股票。他持有 大量现金，并对美股后市表示担忧。 英国 ...

据华尔街见闻报道，韩国央行周一发布研究称，韩国得盯紧人民币汇率走势，韩元与人民币之间的汇率 联动性正不断增强，特别在全球不确定性上升、贸易摩擦加剧时表现更为明显。 研究显示，韩元和人民币之间的联动关系很强，自2018年以来二者的相关性平均约为0.6。有些时候这 种关系更明显，包括2018–2019年中美贸易摩擦升级，2022年2月至2023年4月美联储激进加息周期， 2024年特朗普再次竞选成功后政策预期的变化。 欧洲国家在这方面表现尤为突出：德国央行和法国央行已将人民币纳入外汇储备；瑞士央行将人民币作 为其外汇储备多样化的选择；比利时央行购买了价值2亿欧元的人民币；西班牙央行和斯洛伐克央行也 表示正在考虑或已经购买人民币。 另外，"一带一路"沿线及资源型经济体在贸易结算中优先使用人民币，减少对美元中介依赖。 例如，中东产油国（如沙特、阿联酋）与中国签订人民币结算石油协议，部分替代美元，推动人民币在 能源定价中的话语权； 未来若美国贸易保护主义抬头，韩元受人民币影响或进一步加剧。人民币一动，韩元也跟着抖。 这意味着，韩国的货币政策制定和企业的外汇风险管理将面临更大挑战，不仅要看美国动向，还得盯着 中国怎么动。 ...

当美国合众银行（US Bancorp）外汇销售主管Paula Comings与美国进口商交谈时，她越来越多地听到同 样的信息：他们的外国交易对手不再希望以美元支付。相反，他们要求以欧元、人民币、墨西哥比索和 加元结算，以限制美元进一步波动带来的风险敞口。"很多客户以前不愿意，因为在供应商眼中，美元 是神圣不可侵犯的，"Comings说道。"现在，海外供应商的态度似乎是，'把我们的货币给我们就行 了'。" ...

06-16 07:01 阅读 1817 2025年下半年全球、中国香港市场和主要资产类别的 预测和机遇。 在去年十一月展望今年的时候,我们旗帜鲜明地提出了几 个与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测：1）美股在未来三个 月左右将出现大级别的暴跌； 2）中国是今年最逆共识的 交易;3)美元将开启贬值的趋势,黄金、贵金属将暴 沿。 这些与当时的市场共识完全相悖的预测,在过去的几个月 都 -- 得到了验证: 1) 美股在二、三月份见顶,并开始下 跌。同时,美股四月的暴跌以及伴生的市场波动率历史性 飙升,都是历史上最暴烈的一次;2)中国香港市场是今 年以来表现最好的主要市场之一，同时上市融资总量也回 到了世界之巅;3)美元是今年表现最差的主要货币,没 有之一。从我们预测至今,美元已经贬值了逾10%,而趋 势正在逐步加强,黄金则创了人类历史的新高,其它贵金 属如银和铂金已经开始暴涨。在四月二日美股史诗级暴跌 前、三月二十九日的那个周末,我在深圳和上海两地的读 者见面会上清晰地与读者们分享了我对于接踵而至的市场 暴跌的预测,以及如何做好风险管理的策略(图一) 洪瀬: 2025下半年展望 - 周期与平 衡 (下) 图一: 上半年的 ...

美股与美元之间的关系是否存在简单线性的联系？ 美股与美元之间的关系并非简单线性。市场普遍认为，美元走弱即意味着去美 元化，但实际上，去美元化是一个更为复杂的中长期过程，涉及全球投资者抛 弃美元资产，这将对美债和美股产生压力。然而，历史数据表明，美股和美元 之间并没有必然、直接且单向的关系。例如，在广场协议后，大幅贬值 50%的 情况下，美股仍然上涨；而在科网泡沫期间，美股下跌时，美元却走强。因此， 两者的关系有时是同向，有时是反向，并不总是一致。 去美元化对市场有哪些影响？ 美元与美股的关系：Hibor 如何影响港股流动性？ 20250616 摘要 美股和美元之间不存在必然的单向关系，历史数据显示两者走势有时同 向，有时反向，受多种因素影响，不能简单地将去美元化等同于短期汇 率波动，投资决策需谨慎。 美元走弱对美股有利，因龙头公司海外收益占比高，汇兑收益增加，且 降低整体金融条件，利好国内顺周期修复。但需注意去美元化是长期问 题，美债反映国家信用，美股反映私人部门产业趋势。 港股今年表现逊于全球大部分市场，虽 3 月前表现领先，但近期新消费、 生物科技及银行板块抱团紧密，交易拥挤度高。外资视角下，港股并未 显 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "de-dollarization" trend and its impact on the U.S. economy, stock markets, and global asset allocation strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **De-dollarization vs. Dollar Weakness** - The weakening of the dollar does not equate to de-dollarization; a moderate depreciation may benefit U.S. multinational companies due to their high overseas revenue exposure [2][5][21]. 2. **Market Consensus on De-dollarization** - The current market consensus leans towards de-dollarization, but the timeline and extent of this trend remain uncertain. The correlation between dollar weakness and de-dollarization should be carefully evaluated [2][5]. 3. **U.S. vs. Hong Kong Stock Performance** - Recently, the U.S. stock market has outperformed the Hong Kong market, with historical patterns showing that the relationship between U.S. stocks and the dollar is not linear [3][4]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Economic Policies** - U.S. fiscal policy is currently balanced, alleviating concerns about fiscal health. The extension of tax reform measures aims to encourage new investments [12][14]. 5. **Credit Cycle Analysis** - The relative strength of the U.S. and Chinese economies can be assessed through their credit cycles, with the U.S. showing signs of recovery while China remains in a state of stagnation [6][8]. 6. **Inflation and Interest Rate Projections** - Current U.S. inflation is expected to rise but will remain below 3.5%. The outcome of U.S.-China negotiations could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [13][17]. 7. **Market Liquidity and Asset Scarcity** - The market is experiencing a paradox of abundant liquidity alongside asset scarcity, particularly in the Hong Kong market, which requires additional policy measures for significant improvement [39][41]. 8. **Future of Technology Investments** - The outlook for technology investments remains optimistic, with leading companies exceeding expectations, which may alleviate concerns about overcapacity in the tech sector [14][34]. 9. **Tariff Policies and Economic Impact** - Tariff policies are designed to support fiscal revenue for infrastructure projects, with current tariffs generating significant income to offset related expenditures [15][21]. 10. **Investment Strategies in Current Market Conditions** - Investors are advised against short-selling in the current environment due to potential market rebounds. A focus on dividend-paying assets is recommended to navigate volatility [25][44]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global De-dollarization Consensus** - The global consensus on de-dollarization may lead to mispricing in certain markets, particularly in the U.S. stock market, which could rebound in the fourth quarter [53]. 2. **Structural Opportunities in Hong Kong Market** - The Hong Kong market is witnessing a structural shift with a concentration of new economy companies, which may attract more investment despite the overall asset scarcity [50][51]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends** - Changes in consumer spending patterns, particularly among younger demographics, are influencing the new consumption market, presenting new investment opportunities [48][49]. 4. **Challenges in Real Estate Sector** - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, particularly in credit availability and rental yields, complicating recovery efforts [35][36]. 5. **Potential for New Trade Agreements** - In response to tariff uncertainties, there may be a shift towards new trade agreements with regions like Southeast Asia and the EU, as well as a focus on expanding overseas markets [32].

Group 1 - The U.S. military's dependence on rare earth elements has reached 97%, indicating a critical reliance that cannot be easily negotiated away [3] - The U.S. has limited domestic refining capabilities, with only 5% of global refining capacity, highlighting a significant vulnerability in the supply chain [3][5] - The Biden administration's efforts to establish a domestic rare earth supply chain have shown limited results, as reported by the Wall Street Journal [5] Group 2 - In 2023, 74% of the rare earth products imported by the U.S. came from China, underscoring the ongoing dependency on foreign sources [6] - Major U.S. companies like Apple and Tesla are facing supply chain pressures related to rare earth materials, prompting them to explore diversification strategies [8] - The shift in global market dynamics is leading to a reconfiguration of power, with countries moving towards de-dollarization and alternative currency settlements [10] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund reported that the U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 58.9% in Q1 2024, the lowest in 20 years, indicating a decline in U.S. influence [10] - The current situation reflects a broader issue for the U.S. in adjusting its stance towards China, as reliance on critical materials contradicts efforts for technological decoupling [11] - The resilience of China's industrial and policy frameworks suggests that the U.S. may face significant challenges in maintaining its position without addressing structural issues [13]

机构人士分析，逆全球化、去美元化的浪潮下，美元美债维持弱势，黄金上行的长线趋势不变，这为白银的贵 金属属性提供了强有力的支撑。4月下旬开始美国关税政策趋于缓和后，三季度全球市场可能会走经济回升的 逻辑。白银得益于其工业属性，在经济回升且金银比值高位的背景下或持续补涨。 白银基本面支撑上涨 白银的基本面确实处于比较好的状态中。白银的工业属性是下游需求的重要来源。白银具有优良的导电导热 性、延展性、较高的感光性，因此成为重要的工业金属。2020年之后，全球光伏新能源技术的发展推动了白银 需求的快速上行。2021至2023年，白银总需求上升约9540万盎司，其中工业需求上升9310万盎司，贡献增量的 约97.6%。 世界白银协会发布的《2025全球白银调查》数据显示，2024年全球白银总供应量为10.15亿盎司，其中一次矿 山生产供应量占比为81%；2024年全球白银总需求量为11.64亿盎司，其中工业需求为6.81亿盎司，占比达 58.5%，主要集中在电子电气（光伏）、钎焊合金和焊料等领域。 平安证券指出，全球白银2016—2024年供应总量CAGR达-0.5%。2024年全球矿产银总供给中伴生矿产量占比 约72 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the implications of the ongoing tariff war initiated by Trump, highlighting its unexpected developments and the volatility in capital markets, particularly in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4][5] - It notes that while some sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals are thriving, traditional economic sectors remain sluggish [1][4] - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the future of the tariff war and its impact on various assets such as US stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin [1][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the favorable and unfavorable factors affecting Trump's tariff policies, including political support and judicial constraints [4][5][6] - It mentions that the US stock market has shown resilience, with many companies reporting strong earnings despite macroeconomic uncertainties [6][7] - The discussion includes the potential for a basic tariff structure that may evolve into a more normalized state, reflecting the inherent complexities of trade negotiations [8][6] Group 3 - The article analyzes the recent "three kills" scenario in the US market, where the stock market, bond market, and dollar faced declines due to the tariff war [11][12] - It highlights the structural issues within the US economy, including rising debt levels and the challenges of maintaining dollar credibility amidst fiscal policies [11][12][13] - The article argues that while the US faces significant debt challenges, it is not necessarily worse off than other major economies, and the concept of "de-dollarization" is difficult to achieve [13][14] Group 4 - The article discusses the impact of the tariff war on the Chinese capital market, noting that the direct exposure of Chinese companies to the US market has decreased significantly [23][22] - It highlights the resilience of the Chinese economy and capital markets, suggesting that the current market dynamics are less affected by the tariff war compared to previous years [23][22] - The article emphasizes the ongoing structural changes within the Chinese economy, particularly the shift towards innovation and technology sectors [26][27] Group 5 - The article describes the current state of the Chinese stock market as a mix of high-performing sectors and struggling traditional industries, referred to as "half sea water, half fire" [26][27] - It points out that the real estate market's adjustment has been a significant factor affecting the overall economy, but there are signs of recovery and new growth opportunities in innovative sectors [27][28] - The article concludes that the market's future performance will depend on the balance between traditional and innovative sectors, with a focus on value and growth strategies [34][35]