Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [12][2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the end, closing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [15][4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding a potential increase in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) led to market turbulence, particularly affecting Tencent Holdings, which saw its stock drop over 6% intraday and close down 2.92% [14][3] - A brokerage firm clarified that the claim of aligning game tax rates with the 32% rate for liquor is misleading, as the two tax types differ significantly in nature and application [18][6] Market Sentiment and Reactions - The brokerage noted that the rumor is typical market noise, likely stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, and suggested that the actual future tax regulations would focus on reviewing tax incentives for certain companies rather than increasing statutory rates [18][6] - The firm emphasized that the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability, indicating that short-term emotional disturbances do not alter long-term fundamentals [18][6] Precious Metals Market - Following a sharp decline, the precious metals market showed signs of stabilization, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [20][8] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations that the de-dollarization process will continue, and the recent price adjustments do not signify the end of the bull market [20][8] Fund Flows - Southbound funds continued to show small-scale net buying of Hong Kong stocks, with a net purchase exceeding 900 million HKD by the end of the trading day [21][9] Future Outlook - Analysts from Guoyuan International expressed concerns that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market apprehension regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, impacting risk appetite in the Hong Kong market [23][11] - CITIC Securities indicated that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have already undergone significant adjustments, and the spring market trend observed since late December 2025 is likely to continue, with large-cap stocks expected to yield relative returns [23][11]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility today, with the Hang Seng Index dropping over 1% at one point before closing with a slight rebound, ending at 26,834.77 points, up 59.20 points, or 0.22% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day but narrowed its losses by the close, finishing at 5,467.26 points, down 59.05 points, or 1.07% [4] Tax Rumor Impact - A rumor regarding potential increases in value-added tax rates for the financial and internet value-added services (such as in-game purchases and advertising) sparked the market's volatility, leading to Tencent Holdings (HK00700) dropping over 6% at one point and closing down 2.92% [3] - A brokerage firm refuted the rumor, clarifying that the comparison of game tax rates to the 32% tax rate on liquor is misleading, as they are different tax types with distinct legal bases [6] Market Sentiment and Sector Performance - The brokerage indicated that the rumor is likely a market noise stemming from an over-interpretation of a single policy document, suggesting that the actual impact on tax regulations will be limited and manageable [6] - Despite the short-term emotional disturbances, the core drivers for internet leading companies remain their business growth, AI commercialization, and profitability improvements [6] - In contrast, gold stocks saw a rebound, with Zijin Mining International (HK02259) rising over 7% and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum (HK03993) and Jiangxi Copper gaining over 6% and 4% respectively [6] Commodity Market Insights - The precious metals market showed signs of stabilization after a sharp decline, with spot gold recovering above $4,900 and silver returning above $86 [8] - Long-term views suggest that the process of de-dollarization will continue, and the recent adjustments do not signify the end of the precious metals bull market [8] Future Market Outlook - Guoyuan International noted that the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair could lead to market concerns regarding adjustments in Fed policy, impacting commodity prices, particularly silver, which saw a 26% drop in a single day [10] - CITIC Securities observed that earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have significantly adjusted, and the market may continue its spring rally, with large-cap stocks expected to perform relatively well before the Spring Festival [10]

最近这段时间，美国的盟友们纷纷前来中国访问，讨论对华合作。这在一定程度上说明了越来越多的国 家正在试图摆脱对美依赖，从而寻找新的利益增长点。 不过，在这些国家排队来华访问的背后，也有一些国家开始加快侵吞中企在海外的资产。关于澳大利亚 被中企租借的达尔文港，澳方明确表示要将其收回。 关于巴拿马运河港口经营权，该国家最高法院裁决书已经下发，宣布中企关于该港口的合同"违反宪 法"。 预判成真？ 早在两年前的亚洲安全峰会期间，李显龙就曾在演讲中提到，全球经济一体化遭遇逆流，大国之间的竞 争可能会延伸到资产、技术、市场等多个维度， 尤其需要警惕部分国家以 "规则" 为借口，对他国海外资产采取非常规手段。当时这番言论并未引发广 泛热议，不少人将其视为常规性风险提示。 他当时特别强调，"当经济竞争上升到战略层面，资产安全将不再单纯依赖市场规则，地缘政治因素会 成为关键变量"，并提醒包括中国在内的新兴经济体，要提前做好海外资产的风险对冲。 如今回头看，这一判断恰好击中了当前局势的核心 —— 美国近期的一系列动作，正是以 "合规审 查""公平竞争" 为外衣，实质却在推动资产领域的定向博弈。 更值得注意的是，李显龙在后续的访谈中 ...

但短期资金把行情透支了。高盛的判断是，短期投机资金和散户实物需求把交易挤得太满，波动率一飙升就触发止损和强平，现在交易员普遍在减仓、降杠 杆，更多在玩波动率而不是单边方向。 华尔街对黄金最近这轮暴涨暴跌的看法基本一致：支撑金价的底层逻辑还在——央行在买，去美元化/通胀预期没消失，宏观政策的不确定性。 分歧在于这轮调整会跌多深、跌多久：高盛大宗商品研究那边还是看2026年底到5400美元，而且觉得往上走的概率更大；Infrastructure Capital的Jay Hatfield 直接说这行情早就脱离基本面，就是动量交易。 研究端同时强调，上行风险还是偏多，因为私人部门继续配置黄金"非常可能"。理由是全球宏观政策不确定性在2026年很难完全解决，而且黄金在私人投资 组合中的占比还是偏低。 高盛大宗商品研究部的STRUYVEN：基于央行购金、美联储降息、私人部门不再增配这三个假设，维持2026年12月金价5400美元。 "我们仍维持2026年12月金价5400美元的预测。该预测基于：1）央行购金维持过去12个月高位（每月60吨）；2）美联储2026年降息两次各25基 点；3）私营部门未进一步多元化配置黄金（即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold and silver prices is viewed as a healthy correction within a long-term bull market, rather than a collapse of faith in the intrinsic value of hard assets [2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The chief investment officer of Lianhua Asset Management, Hong Hao, believes that the recent price drop is similar to the "cash squeeze" event in March 2020, rather than structural bear markets seen in 1980 or 2013 [1]. - The drop in prices is attributed to liquidity traps in market trading and margin increases, rather than a sudden loss of confidence in hard assets [2]. - Hong Hao maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold and silver, suggesting that the story of these precious metals is just beginning [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article references the infamous "Silver Thursday" on March 27, 1980, when silver prices plummeted by over 50% due to market manipulation by the Hunt brothers, who attempted to monopolize the silver market [1]. - The Hunt brothers' inability to meet margin calls led to forced liquidations, causing a market crash from approximately $21 to $10.8 per ounce [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Hong Hao has set a target price of $150 for silver, indicating a strong belief in the future demand for gold as the myth of the dollar fades due to high U.S. debt levels [2].

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a sudden surge, with spot gold reaching $4,890 per ounce and New York futures surpassing $4,900 per ounce [1] - Silver also saw significant gains, with spot silver increasing by 8% to $85 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The A-share precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with notable stock performances: Xiaocheng Technology up 17%, Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, and Zijin Mining rising over 6% [3] - Other companies like Shandong Gold and Hengbang Shares saw their declines narrow to within 2% [3] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities predicts that gold may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term but is expected to return to an upward trend within the year, supported by long-term demand from global central banks [5] - New Lake Futures also believes that medium to long-term support for gold prices remains, citing geopolitical risks and uncertainties in U.S. government policies as key factors [5]

新湖期货亦认为黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期扰动，中期市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温 与特朗普政府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全球债务可持续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前， 上述中长期逻辑并未发生根本性逆转。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 4892.284 | 昨结 | | 4659.278 | 总量 | | 0 | | +233.006 | +5.00% 开盘 | | 4669.080 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4893.590 持 仓 | | 0 | 4 물 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4666.083 壇 | | 0 | 内 | | | | 分时 | 王日 日K | 周Ｋ | | 目K | 重家 | | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4893.590 | | | | 5.03% 卖一 | 4892.670 | ...

2月3日，有色板块持续回暖，湖南黄金冲击涨停，盛和资源、云南锗业、北方稀土、中国稀土等涨超 4%，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）涨超2%。 上周，贵金属出现历史性行情，受交易拥挤、新任美联储主席和美股科技股下跌压制，贵金属整体出现 暴跌，尤其是前期涨幅过高的白银，单日最大跌幅超过30%，黄金最大跌幅超过10%。今日盘中，金银 现货价格反弹，截至发稿，伦敦银现涨超5%，伦敦金现涨超3%。 中邮证券指出，短期来看，由于获利盘出清导致价格可能会出现剧烈震荡，不排除进一步下跌可能性， 但伦敦金可以在4800-4900盎司之间寻找低位筹码。长期来看，去美元化的进程不会转向，此次调整不 是贵金属行情的结束，耐心等待价格转向的时点。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）所跟踪的有色矿业指数是一只高度聚焦于有色金属产业链最上游——矿产 资源开采环节的指数，当有色金属价格（如铜价、金价、锂价）上涨时，上游矿产公司的利润会直接、 快速地提升，因此有色矿业指数表现出更强的价格弹性，贝塔值更高，在商品牛市或通胀环境中进攻性 十足。 数据来源:Wind_截至2026.1.30。 了 指数介绍 主流有色主题指数历史行情 388%- 3 ...

【黄金强势拉升！金饰克价涨58元，有色金属股集体反弹！分析师：做多黄金仍是正确策略】2月3日， 国际金价强势反弹，现货黄金拉升涨超4%，再度站上4800美元/盎司上方。在#A股#市场上，有色金属 股集体反弹，石英股份涨超6%，湖南黄金、国城矿业涨超5%，中稀有色、紫金矿业涨超3%。消息方 面，现货金银亚盘回暖，其中国际金价涨超4%，报4852.81美元/盎司。国内品牌足金饰品价格跟涨。周 生生足金饰品标价涨至1542元/克，较前一日涨58元/克；老凤祥足金饰品报1518元/克，较前一日涨20 元。金砖汇通资深策略师赵相宾认为，此次黄金价格走高是其避险属性回归的表现，虽然在极度投机影 响下近期多次突破历史纪录直至暴跌，但其避险属性并未受影响；此外，目前全球贸易去美元化趋势以 及央行等购金需求仍在支撑金价。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves明确表示，做多黄金仍是当前的正确策 略，支撑黄金战略性配置的逻辑依旧充足，相关指标也显示，从平均水平来看，投资者仍有进一步加仓 的空间，但同时需警惕短期调整风险升温。你最近抄底黄金了吗？对于这次反弹，你怎么看？（注：本 文不构成任何投资建议）#金银价格又反转##周生生情况通报 ...

与此同时，机构投资者对黄金的配置依然偏低，若养老基金、家族办公室等长期资本逐步加码，将为金 价带来巨大上行潜力。尽管部分投行预测黄金有望升至6000甚至8000美元，但Piggott认为，推动金价上 涨的根本因素——如债务失衡、去美元化趋势和地缘政治紧张——是缓慢发酵的过程，而非一蹴而就。 在他看来，此次回调不仅未削弱市场信心，反而起到了情绪重置的作用，吸引了更多理性买家，夯实了 上涨基础。只要全球不确定性居高不下，财政纪律松弛的问题依旧存在，黄金的长期牛市格局就不会改 变。"波动令人不安，但它不是危险信号，而是市场为风险重新定价所付出的必要成本。"他总结道。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 从技术面来看，2月3日黄金呈现高开高走态势，价格较昨日显著反弹，正逐步逼近下行趋势线的关键压 力位4950美元。更为上方的强阻力区间则位于5010至5110美元之间，预计在今日美盘前触及该区域的难 度较大。从1小时级别分析，KDJ与RSI指标仍处于偏弱状态，MACD也尚未回升至零轴上方，这表明当 前的反弹更多是技术性修复行为，而非趋势的根本性反转。因此，在操作策略上，仍建议以压力位附近 逢高做空或谨慎对待为主，下方短期支撑可关 ...