Group 1 - The core task for China's economic development post-pandemic is to expand domestic consumption, especially in light of rising protectionism from the U.S. under Trump, which necessitates a focus on increasing domestic demand [1] - Distinguishing between consumer desire and consumer ability is essential for formulating targeted policies to expand domestic demand, requiring an understanding of the saturation point of consumer desire [1][2] - Consumer desire is characterized by its "non-satiation" nature, meaning consumers always prefer more to less, while consumer ability is influenced by income, wealth, and access to credit [2][7] Group 2 - Different categories of consumer goods, such as food, durable goods, and services, exhibit varying saturation points, with food consumption stability indicated by the Engel coefficient remaining between 28% and 30% from 2015 to 2024 [3] - The average annual per capita grain consumption in urban areas has stabilized between 109 kg and 125 kg from 2013 to 2024, with a decline starting in 2021 [3] - Durable goods like washing machines and computers reached saturation points in 2012, while the ownership of refrigerators and air conditioners saw a decline followed by growth due to factors like real estate development [4] Group 3 - The saturation of certain consumer goods indicates a need for high-quality development and product upgrades, while sectors like air conditioning and automotive still have significant growth potential [5] - The overall consumption saturation point in China is expected to decline due to accelerating population aging and decreasing natural growth rates [5] - Consumer ability in China shows significant disparities, with low-income households relying on credit or wealth smoothing for consumption beyond basic needs [7] Group 4 - To activate consumer desire, it is crucial to recognize the non-satiation of consumer quantity and the diminishing marginal utility, while also providing high-quality and innovative products [8] - A differentiated sales strategy is recommended to cater to varying consumer abilities, with high-quality products targeting high-income groups and cost-effective options for low-income consumers [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the urgent needs of the public through fiscal investment should be viewed not merely as a cost but as an investment aimed at high-quality development, aligning with the 2025 Government Work Report's focus on "investing in people" [1][5]. Summary by Sections - The Opinions issued by the Central Committee and the State Council on June 9 aim to enhance social security fairness, improve the balance of basic public services, expand the inclusiveness of basic livelihood services, and increase the accessibility of diverse social services [2]. - The Opinions address the challenges of insufficient domestic demand in the Chinese economy, particularly through measures to support low-income populations, which can stimulate consumption and inject new vitality into economic growth [3]. - The long-term goals of the Opinions include enhancing the accessibility of diverse social services, which will not only enrich social services but also create significant market opportunities and employment in sectors like elderly care and community services [4]. - The Opinions highlight the need for fiscal investment to address public concerns, advocating for an increased proportion of budgetary investment in social undertakings, reinforcing the idea that solving livelihood issues is crucial for economic stability and sustainable development [5].

Group 1: Consumption Growth and Policies - In May 2025, retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 4.85%[1] - The government has prioritized "restoring and expanding consumption" as a key task for 2025, with over 20 specific measures introduced to stimulate consumption[1] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy for consumer goods has been expanded, with the subsidy amount increasing from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025[2] Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Policies - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales of five major categories of consumer goods to reach 1.1 trillion yuan, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers by the end of May 2025[2] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a year-on-year increase of over 30%, indicating strong demand driven by the subsidy policies[5] - The tourism sector experienced a record high during the Dragon Boat Festival, with 119 million domestic trips and total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% increase year-on-year[10] Group 3: Long-term Consumer Confidence Challenges - Despite short-term stimulus effects, consumer willingness remains low, with only 24.9% of residents inclined to spend more, while 61.4% prefer to save[15] - Structural issues such as housing, education, and healthcare costs continue to suppress consumer spending, necessitating deeper policy interventions[15] - To enhance long-term consumption capacity, policies must focus on stabilizing income expectations and reducing rigid expenditure pressures[19] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government aims to improve income distribution and social security systems to stabilize residents' income expectations and strengthen consumption capacity[23] - Enhancements to vacation policies are essential for activating long-term service consumption potential, with new regulations increasing holiday days starting January 1, 2025[20] - Coordinated policy measures are necessary to create a sustainable consumption environment, moving beyond short-term incentives to long-term structural improvements[23]

□大河财立方 记者 徐兵 入夏以来，从龙虾节到露营节，从啤酒节到美食节，各地消费活动热度持续攀升，不只是夏夜烟火气的 回归，更是中国消费市场持续恢复、升级提速的鲜明写照。在此背景下，河南、福建、广东等地相继出 台提振消费专项行动方案，围绕稳就业、促增收、扩内需，释放出强烈的政策信号：消费不仅是经济增 长的重要引擎，更是畅通国内大循环的关键环节。 当前消费结构正在发生深刻变化，从吃穿用到托育养老、从商品购买到服务体验，消费升级趋势日益明 显。广东发放托育券、福建鼓励发放结婚消费券，河南打造"跟着赛事去旅行""跟着微短剧去旅游"的文 旅新场景，这些举措都集中指向服务消费的培育与壮大。服务消费的快速扩容，不仅关乎经济数字的增 长，更映射出城镇化进程中居民日常生活方式的深层变迁。 面对新的消费趋势，政策工具也在持续创新与升级。从直接补贴到结构性减税，从消费券发放到社保补 贴，从贷款贴息到带薪休假，各地政府正在通过多重路径激活消费动力。广东对符合条件的消费贷款给 予财政贴息，上海、贵州推动文旅、养老等项目通过基础设施REITs获得融资支持，海南鼓励探索春秋 假弹性休假机制……这些举措共同构建起更加系统、更有协同性的促消 ...

Economic Stability - In May, the national economy demonstrated resilience and vitality, with stable production demand and overall employment situation [2][3] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the equipment manufacturing sector saw a growth of 9% [3] Employment and Consumer Trends - The urban survey unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a gradual strengthening of domestic demand [10] Consumption Growth - Social retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, with a growth acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [11] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies and promotional activities contributed to the acceleration in market sales [11] Industrial Upgrades - The manufacturing of digital products grew by 9.1%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [17] - The production of lithium-ion batteries, shipbuilding, and boiler manufacturing saw year-on-year increases of 28.6%, 12.8%, and 11.8%, respectively [16] Foreign Trade Resilience - In May, China's total goods import and export value increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports rising by 6.3% [24] - Despite global economic challenges, China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, particularly in diversifying markets beyond the U.S. [24]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability, with positive growth in industrial production, service sectors, and fixed asset investments, supported by proactive macro policies [1][6]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [2]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5, suggesting positive future expectations [3]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93% [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with home appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment saw a robust increase of 8.5% [5]. - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced significant investment growth rates of 41.4% and 24.2%, respectively [5]. Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of policy effects has led to a stable economic environment, showcasing China's economic resilience and vitality [6]. - However, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and the need to strengthen domestic demand [6].

Group 1: Economic Performance - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with online retail sales growing at 8.5%, outpacing offline consumption [1] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances (up 53%), communication equipment (up 33%), cultural and office supplies (up 30.5%), and furniture (up 25.6%) [1] - Real estate market transactions remain sluggish, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May, indicating weakened investment attributes [2] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - New consumption formats are emerging as key drivers, with companies like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Pang Donglai successfully capturing young consumer demand and promoting domestic brands globally [2] - Pop Mart's stock price surged over 11 times in 2024, highlighting the market potential for innovative consumer products [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment - In May, exports grew by 6.3% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.5%, demonstrating resilience in trade [2] - China is diversifying its export markets, reducing reliance on the U.S. from 18% to 14%, and increasing the share of high-value-added products [2] - The export performance of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries is strong, with automotive exports surpassing Japan, making China the global leader [2] Group 4: Inflation and Policy Outlook - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, marking three consecutive months of negative growth, indicating a need for policies to enhance consumer capacity [3] - There are expectations for increased domestic demand stimulus policies in the second half of the year, including expanding the trade-in program and possibly issuing consumption vouchers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance and impact of China's five-year plans, particularly focusing on the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and its preparation process, emphasizing the importance of public participation and the integration of long-term and short-term goals [1][3][5]. Group 1: Importance of Five-Year Plans - Five-year plans are crucial for China's economic and social development, reflecting a long-term strategic thinking that is a political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics [3][4]. - The global interest in China's five-year plans has increased as the country continues to achieve economic breakthroughs, showcasing the plans' significant role in this success [3]. Group 2: Planning Cycle and Methodology - The five-year cycle is chosen to balance short-term adjustments and long-term visions, allowing for continuous policy updates and alignment with major national goals [4][7]. - Market participants should focus on long-term opportunities within the plans rather than just new terminologies, as continuity in development goals is essential for identifying sustainable investment opportunities [4][8]. Group 3: Changes in Internal and External Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" faces a more complex internal and external environment compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," including intensified great power competition and a rapidly changing global economic landscape [8][9]. - The domestic economic challenges, such as population issues and external risks, require a more nuanced approach in the upcoming plan [8][10]. Group 4: Focus Areas in the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The plan will emphasize expanding domestic demand, particularly through boosting consumption and addressing long-term challenges in areas like population and employment [10][14]. - Major engineering projects will be prioritized, focusing on traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure while also enhancing "soft construction" related to human capital development [16][17]. Group 5: Reform and Policy Alignment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will align with the broader reform agenda set by the 20th National Congress, focusing on implementing over 300 reform measures to enhance market economy foundations [19][20]. - Key areas for reform include improving macroeconomic governance and managing market expectations, which are critical for maintaining economic stability [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need to further coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms to promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - In May, the consumer price index (CPI) for residents decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and fell by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a shift from an increase to a decrease in prices [1] - The decline in prices is primarily influenced by international input factors and a decrease in food prices [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The current price situation requires a comprehensive and dialectical view, recognizing both the effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and the low overall price levels that affect corporate profitability and employment growth [1] - The core CPI growth rate is steadily expanding, and positive price changes are accumulating [1] Group 3: Future Directions - Moving forward, there is a need to further coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms [1] - The goal is to leverage the combined effects of macroeconomic policies, regulate market price order, improve supply-demand relationships, and promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable growth of China's economy in May, driven by industrial production, service sector expansion, and consumer spending, while emphasizing the need for continued efforts to enhance domestic demand and economic resilience [1][10]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 21,170 billion yuan from January to April, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services [3] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2%, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5% [3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [4] - Online retail sales reached 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 191,947 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 8.5% [5] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 10.7% [5] Trade Performance - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports growing by 6.3% and imports declining by 2.1% [6][7] - From January to May, the total trade value was 179,449 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [6] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [8] - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, with core CPI rising by 0.6% [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [10]