Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices is attributed to a strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields, leading to reduced demand for gold as an investment option [3][4][10]. Market Dynamics - On November 4, gold prices fell nearly $70 in a single day, dropping from around $4000 to a low of $3928 per ounce, closing at $3931.86 [1]. - The ICE US Dollar Index reached a three-month high, closing at 100.20, which made gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies [3]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.11%, making US bonds more attractive compared to gold, prompting a shift of funds from gold to the dollar [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Current gold price trends indicate a continuation of a bearish pattern, with prices breaking below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [6]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3928 and $3900, with potential further declines to $3850/3840 or even $3820-3800 [6][15]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards further downward adjustments unless gold can reclaim the $4000 level [6][15]. Central Bank Behavior - Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [7][9]. - Emerging market central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have significant potential to increase their gold reserves, which could impact future demand [9][10]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divide in market sentiment, with 50% of retail investors predicting a rise in gold prices, while institutional investors are pulling funds from gold ETFs, with a record outflow of $7.5 billion in a week [12][10]. - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to increased anxiety among investors, with many questioning their strategies in light of the rapid price changes [10][12]. Broader Market Context - The decline in gold prices is part of a larger adjustment in global financial markets, influenced by concerns over high valuations in the AI sector and a strong US dollar [12][10]. - The correlation between gold prices and inflation has been significant, with gold serving as an effective hedge against inflation over the past 20 years [13].

Core Viewpoint - The news outlines key support and resistance levels for various currency pairs, indicating potential trading strategies based on market movements. Currency Analysis - **USDJPY**: Monthly resistance at 102.10, weekly support at 98.30, daily resistance at 99.30, and a critical short-term range between 100.10-20 [1][2] - **USDCAD**: Monthly support at 1.4030, weekly support at 1.3890, daily resistance at 1.4020, with a short-term critical range at 1570-80 [5][6] - **USDCHF**: Monthly support at 1.4100-1.4110, with no reversal signal indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **EURUSD**: Weekly support at 0.8000, daily resistance at 0.8000, and a critical range at 0.8090-0.8100 [9] - **GBPUSD**: Monthly support at 1.1120, weekly resistance at 1.1670, daily resistance at 1.1575, with a critical range at 1.1485-1.1495 [11] - **AUDUSD**: Monthly support at 1.3070, weekly resistance at 1.3415, daily resistance at 1.3220, with a critical range at 1.3040-50 [13] - **NZDUSD**: Weekly resistance at 0.6540, daily resistance at 0.6520, and a critical range at 0.6490-0.6500 [15] - **General Market Sentiment**: The analysis suggests a cautious approach, waiting for reversal signals before making significant trades [2][7][9][11][13][15] Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Germany's industrial output, Switzerland's unemployment rate, Eurozone retail sales, and the Bank of England's interest rate decision [17]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY currency pair is currently trading at 153.9400, following a downward trend influenced by strong US employment data and risk appetite in the market [1] - The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting minutes from September indicate a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with policymakers weighing inflation dynamics and trade risks [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the timing of the next BoJ interest rate hike, as the new Prime Minister, Kishida Fumio, is expected to implement aggressive fiscal spending plans [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index reached its highest level since May, supported by reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its 36th day, has created a data vacuum, leading to a murky economic outlook [2] - Economists warn that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the risk of the fragile economy transitioning from bending to breaking [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY has faced strong resistance in the 154.40-154.45 range, which is now a key support level [3] - A breakthrough above this resistance could target the psychological level of 155.00, with potential follow-up buying paving the way to 155.60-155.65 [3] - Conversely, the 153.65 area may provide some support before a potential drop to the 153.00-152.95 range, with further declines targeting 152.55-152.50 and 152.00 [3]

Group 1 - The global largest gold ETF held 1,038.63 tons as of November 4, with a reduction of 3.15 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating a tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice questioning its reasonableness, leading to a decreased probability of a Trump victory [2] - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 36 days, impacting the stock market, airline industry, and food assistance programs, but Trump still anticipates new highs in the stock market [2] Group 2 - Economic data shows that U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but labor demand is slowing and wage growth is stagnant [2] - The service sector activity in October expanded at the fastest pace in eight months, surpassing economists' predictions [2] - The U.S. Treasury maintained its quarterly refinancing scale but hinted at potential increases in the future, leading to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish crossover in the KD indicator [4] - The strategy for gold trading today suggests buying on dips between 3,965.9 and 3,971.9, with a stop loss at 3,960.9 and a target range of 3,975.9 to 3,981.9 [4] - Silver prices are also below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a similar bearish crossover in the KD indicator, recommending selling on highs between 48.21 and 48.71 [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]

美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上 岗，航空公司已经炸锅。美国运输部长达菲放出狠话：如果本周五前还谈不拢，就从周五开始对40个主 要机场削减10%的计划航班！这意味着全美航空即将陷入大混乱，航班大面积延误、取消就在眼前。避 险情绪瞬间点燃黄金！市场也不乏利空消息：美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于 市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指数 强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌 至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨 1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。需要提醒的是，但好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳 动力市场发生了实质性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有 助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。短期看，美元200日均线压力、美债收益率冲高，都会给金价 制造波动；但中期看，政府停摆无 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the USD opened higher, reflecting a shift in market dynamics influenced by recent Federal Reserve actions and global economic conditions [1] Currency Exchange Rates - On November 6, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1218 against the USD, up from the previous closing of 7.1246 [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.1267 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The RMB's central parity against the USD was adjusted up by 36 basis points to 7.0865 [1] Dollar Index and Economic Context - As of 9:30 AM, the dollar index stood at 100.0394, indicating a recent increase [1] - The dollar index has strengthened due to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields following a hawkish stance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite a 25 basis point rate cut in October [1] - Weak economic fundamentals in major economies like the Eurozone and Japan have contributed to the overall poor performance of non-USD currencies, further supporting the dollar's strength [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has enhanced the dollar's safe-haven appeal [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been influenced by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market liquidity concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On November 4, international gold futures prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to a low of $3931.30/oz, while COMEX silver futures closed at $46.90/oz [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic 36 days, causing market unease and impacting liquidity, which counteracts the effects of interest rate cuts in October [3][4]. - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Strength - The dollar index has surged past the 100 mark, supported by reduced interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the euro and yen, as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their current policies [5]. - If the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity may improve as funds flow back into the market, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to encourage on-exchange trading by exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may shift interest towards investment products like gold ETFs [6][7]. - The policy may negatively impact non-investment gold consumption due to increased costs, while the overall long-term price trajectory of gold is expected to remain stable despite short-term speculative behavior [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in actual interest rates and the cooling of rate cut expectations are primary factors behind the recent decline in gold prices, with short-term weakness anticipated if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [9][10]. - Long-term drivers for gold prices, such as central bank purchases and the ongoing trend of dollar credit expansion, are expected to provide upward momentum for gold [10].

Core Viewpoint - The prolonged "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government has raised concerns among investors regarding the negative impact on the U.S. economic fundamentals, coinciding with a decline in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in international gold prices [1] Group 1 - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a record number of days, leading to heightened investor anxiety about the economic implications [1] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a decline on Wednesday, which contributed to the rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3992.9 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.82% [1]