Group 1: Inflation Trends - The overall CPI in the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, which was below market expectations[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, also falling short of market expectations[2] - Energy inflation continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year[3] Group 2: Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remained stable, indicating that the impact of tariffs on US inflation may be less than anticipated[3] - The month-on-month growth rate of core CPI was lower than expected, which may alleviate market concerns about inflation[3] - The contribution of core goods to inflation is increasing, with core goods year-on-year growth rising to 0.28% in May[3] Group 3: Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to have a gradual impact on inflation, with evidence of businesses passing costs onto consumers[4] - Less than 30% of businesses chose not to pass on tariff costs, with most completing cost transfers within three months[4] - The potential for "stagflation" is currently low, as stable oil and food prices help anchor inflation expectations[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with the first potential cut expected in Q4 2025, possibly fewer than anticipated[5] - Ongoing monitoring of inflation trends and tariff policies is essential, especially with upcoming FOMC meetings and tax legislation[5]

报 告 正 文 能源和商品同比增速回升。 5月CPI同比增速略有回升，但核心CPI同比增速走平。从分项同比增速来看，核心服务较上月持平，而能源降幅 收窄，核心商品反弹。 能源方面 ，5月电力价格同比增速反弹，环比增速已连续4个月在1%附近，或因数据中心用电增长以及美国天然气出 口量增加。不过，油价继续回落，汽油同比降幅扩大至-12%。 核心商品方面 ， 一方面 ，受去年同期基数走低的影响，商品同比增速回 升。核心商品环比增速取得零，服装和汽车等价格环比增速录得负值，消费者信心受到政策不确定性打击。 另一方面， 部分商品分项体现 关税影响。洗衣机等大件家电价格环比增速上行，或因这类商品对中国进口依赖程度较高。 此前，企业在关税政策前抢进口、累库存，关 税影响未完全体现在通胀中，传导或仍需一定时间 。 通胀略有反弹。 5月CPI同比增速略升至2.4%，核心CPI同比较上月持平于2.8%。从分项来看，本月核心服务同比较上月持平，而能源同比 降幅收窄，核心商品同比增速反弹 。 能源项同比降幅收窄，受电价推升。 5月CPI能源项同比增速录得-3.5%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。 电价方面 ，电力价格已经连续4个月环 比 ...

能源项同比降幅收窄，受电价推升。 5月CPI能源项同比增速录得-3.5%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。 电价方面 ，电力价格已经连续4个月环 比上行，同比增速回升至4.5%，或受到数据中心用电量增加，以及美国天然气出口量上升的影响。 汽油项 同比增速降幅较上月继续下行 至-12%。5月下旬，在OPEC+宣布进一步提高产量后，布伦特原油现货均价跌至64.4美元/桶。6月以来，美国和中国在伦敦举行的贸易谈判 取得进展，布伦特原油均价回升，涨至68美元/桶。综合来看，由于全球贸易不确定导致需求预期低迷，油价或维持低位震荡，能源通胀或 维持较低水平 。 低基数下商品同比回升，关税影响局部显现。 5月核心商品同比增速上涨至0.3%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，主要受去年同期基数走低的影响。 从分项环比增速来看，新车与服装环比增速有所下行，而二手车价格环比增速不变，或受消费信心低迷影响。从二手车的领先指标来看，5月曼 海姆二手车价值指数环比增速录得-1.4%，主因消费者信心低迷，并回吐了部分4月关税政策落地后的涨价。 家具物资方面，洗衣机等大件家电 本月环比增速有所上行，这类商品对从中国进口依赖程度较高，关税影响在局部体现。 ...

各位朋友晚上好，我是帮主郑重。干了20年财经记者，现在更爱以中长线投资者的视角跟大家唠唠市场那些事儿。今儿个美股一开盘就挺热闹，高开的 背后啊，其实藏着俩关键信号——中美在日内瓦会谈的共识框架有了新进展，还有美国5月CPI数据悄悄给市场"递了个眼神"。 作为中长线投资者，我觉得这会儿更该看清楚大逻辑：中美关系往共识框架走，对市场情绪是个支撑；美国通胀压力虽有缓解，但内生动力还没完全消 退，美联储降息大概率是"慢撒气"不是"猛放水"。咱做投资啊，就像开车，得盯着前方路况，别被路边广告牌晃了眼。后续核心CPI怎么走，中美具体合 作咋落地，都是值得持续琢磨的关键点。 行，今儿就先唠到这儿。关注帮主郑重，咱下回接着拆解市场里的"明牌"和"暗牌"。 先说说这CPI。数据一出来，环比涨0.1%，比大伙儿预期的还低点儿，同比2.4%也算是温和。乍一听好像就是"通胀压力松了口气"，但细琢磨就有意思 了。你想啊，买菜买肉的价格没咋猛涨，可核心CPI（剔除食品能源的）同比还在2.8%晃悠，说明服务啊、非必需品这些价格还挺"坚挺"。华尔街那帮分 析师说得挺明白，高关税这事儿正慢慢往商品价格上传导呢，摩根士丹利和高盛都押注6月核心C ...

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation rate unexpectedly remained below market expectations in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-on-year, matching forecasts, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% [3] - Core CPI for May increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 2.9%, and a month-on-month rise of 0.1%, compared to the expected 0.3% [3] - Economists and Federal Reserve officials are divided on when the impact of tariffs on inflation will fully materialize, with Goldman Sachs predicting a temporary rise in prices due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is engaged in internal debates regarding the inflation outlook, with some officials arguing that the impact of tariffs on prices may be more persistent [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with traders anticipating two rate cuts this year, particularly in September [5] - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and impact of tariff-related price changes adds pressure to the economic outlook, with expectations of more significant price increases in June and July [6]

美国CPI数据公布后，交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次。市场预期美联储未来一年将 累计降息77个基点，到12月累计降息48个基点，此前预期未来一年降息67个基点，到12月降息42个基点 分析师Anstey表示，美国核心CPI 0.1%的增长实际上表明通胀较上月有所放缓。对于经济学家来说，这是一个很 大的意外，他们认为，到5月份，关税上调将导致更大的价格上涨。 新华财经北京6月11日电美国劳工部劳工统计局数据显示，美国5月未季调CPI年率录得2.4%，市场预期为2.5%。 美国5月未季调CPI月率录得0.1%，市场预期为0.2%。美国5月未季调核心CPI年率录得2.8%，市场预期为2.9%。 美国5月季调后核心CPI月率录得0.1%，市场预期为0.3%。 数据显示，美国2025年5月CPI显示通胀压力持续温和，住房和服务价格是主要支撑，而能源和部分商品价格下 跌缓解了整体通胀。核心通胀保持稳定，内需驱动的价格压力可控。未来需关注住房市场、能源价格波动及数 据基期调整对指数的影响。 图为：美国CPI月率环比变化来源：新华财经 分项数据显示 | 京用 | 环比变动 12个月同比变动 | 备注说明 ...

美国通胀意外低于预期 5月整体CPI同比增2.4% 金十数据6月11日讯，尽管美国总统特朗普的贸易战加剧了价格压力，但美国5月未季调CPI年率升至 2.4%，高于4月份2.3%的增幅，但不及分析师预测的2.5%。随着特朗普4月份公布的关税政策的影响转 嫁到这个世界最大经济体的消费者和企业身上，预计未来几个月通胀将进一步上升。预计美联储在下周 召开会议时，将把借款成本维持在4.25%至4.5%之间，因预计通胀将进一步上升。特朗普向美联储主席 鲍威尔施压，要求他跟随欧洲央行和英国央行的脚步，在今年削减借贷成本，推动降息整整一个百分 点，并称鲍威尔是"灾难"。美联储青睐的通胀指标PCE通胀在4月份降至2.1%，但预计未来几个月也将 上升。 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming week will focus on U.S. inflation data and its impact on the market, following the digestion of the May non-farm payroll report [1] - Key economic data releases include U.S. inflation, U.K. employment, and GDP, which will provide important market signals for investors [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Data - On Monday, the market will continue to digest the May non-farm payroll report while paying attention to U.S. wholesale sales for April and the May New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations, which may reflect tariff impacts [3] - On Wednesday, the U.S. is set to release the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), with expectations of a monthly increase of 0.2% and a core CPI annual rate potentially rising to 2.9% from 2.8% [6] - On Thursday, the U.S. will announce the May Producer Price Index (PPI), with attention on whether the annual rate will stop declining for the fourth consecutive month and reflect rising inflation pressures [8] Group 2: U.K. Economic Data - On Tuesday, the U.K. employment report will be released, showing the unemployment rate at its highest level in nearly four years, with wage growth also slowing [4] - On Thursday, the U.K. will publish April GDP, manufacturing, and industrial output reports, with economists skeptical about the sustainability of the economic rebound due to the negative impacts of tariffs [8] - The Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts is influenced by global trade policy uncertainties and the need for strong economic data to boost confidence [8] Group 3: European Economic Data - On Friday, attention will be on Germany's May CPI final value, which is expected to remain at 2.1%, the lowest level since October 2024, supporting the European Central Bank's recent rate cut decision [10] - The focus will also be on the preliminary June consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, which has seen a decline for five consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2022 [10]

智通财经APP获悉，将于北京时间周三晚间公布的美国5月CPI数据报告，可能再将支持对美联储降息步 伐的乐观预期。但投资者不应过于安心。仔细审视关键的市场信号可以发现，美国通胀很可能已经触 底，且已开始走上上行之路。根据市场定价，预计到 2025 年下半年，美国CPI同比增速将升至 3% 以 上。好消息是，这比市场最初在 4 月 2 日解放日关税宣布后预期的情况要好，当时 CPI 的定价几乎升 至 4%。但根据这种预期，市场就别指望美联储短期内会有降息了。 若市场预期准确，那么分析师预测 5 月通胀率将从 4 月的 2.3%升至 2.5%，这可能只是通胀率上升的开 端。此外，核心CPI预计从 4 月的 2.8%回升至 5 月的 2.9%，核心 CPI 环比增速将从 0.2%加快至 0.3%， 而整体 CPI 环比增速则维持在 0.2%不变。 CPI 互换合约定价则显示不同的预期，预计整体 CPI 将环比上涨 0.3%，同比上涨 2.4%，可能低于市场 预期。与此同时，美国金融交易和预测市场平台Kalshi预计 CPI 将环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 2.4%，核 心 CPI 环比上涨 0.3%，同比上涨 2.9 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down to 147,000[4] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, with a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points month-over-month[6] - Job growth in the goods sector declined, with mining, construction, and manufacturing losing 3,000, 3,000, and 13,000 jobs respectively, while the service sector added 145,000 jobs[6] Wage and Inflation Insights - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth remained at 3.9%, above the forecast of 3.7%[6] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, indicating potential inflation risks in the economy[27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve can afford to maintain its current monetary policy stance without immediate rate cuts[6] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in June 2025, with the market pricing in a 99.9% chance of no rate change[26] Economic Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and the potential for a rebound in inflation rates, which could complicate future monetary policy decisions[27]