Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S., which is expected to increase inflationary pressures due to the impact on imports [6][10] - It highlights the need to understand how much of the current inflation has already accounted for tariffs and what secondary risks may arise post-implementation [6] - The article also mentions the divergence between PMI and EPMI, indicating a potential disconnect in economic indicators [7] Group 2 - The U.S. will impose a baseline tariff of 10% on global imports starting April 5, with additional tariffs on 60 countries, including specific rates for China (34%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), and others [10] - The article notes that market risk appetite has deteriorated, leading to a rise in gold prices, which reflects investor concerns amid the tariff announcements [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the industry, indicating that the expected investment returns will be in line with market benchmarks within the next 6-12 months [27]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the second consecutive meeting, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while lowering economic growth predictions, which aligns with market expectations [3][5]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell indicated that inflation caused by tariffs is considered temporary, which has significantly eased market concerns, leading to a rise in U.S. stock markets and a decline in bond yields [3][5][11]. - The report anticipates 2-3 potential interest rate cuts within the year, driven by economic pressures and the expected implementation of tax cuts later in the year [3][24]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC meeting on March 20 resulted in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, with the next meeting scheduled for May 7 [2]. - The Fed's statement showed minor changes, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7]. Economic and Inflation Forecasts - The Fed has raised its inflation forecasts while lowering GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with GDP growth rates adjusted down by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1 percentage points respectively [8][9]. - The median PCE inflation rate for 2025 is now projected at 2.7%, up from 2.5% in December [9]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, major U.S. stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.9%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.4% [4]. - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4 basis points to 4.25%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.99% [4]. Economic Health Assessment - Powell described the U.S. economy as "healthy," despite acknowledging an increased risk of recession, attributing recent economic data fluctuations to the initial turbulence of the Trump administration [11][21]. - The report highlights that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with significant inflation pressures anticipated to manifest in the upcoming months [11][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the industry, indicating a cautious outlook on future performance [53]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% while reducing the monthly limit for Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, maintaining a $35 billion reduction for MBS [3][19]. - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the GDP growth rate for 2025 revised down to 1.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while inflation predictions for PCE and core PCE have been raised to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively [23][30]. - The market's risk appetite has shown signs of recovery following the Fed's announcement, with significant increases in major stock indices and a decline in 10-year Treasury yields [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Fed's statement reflects a stable labor market and acknowledges slight inflation increases, with internal dissent indicating differing views on economic conditions [19][20]. - The Fed's flexibility in lowering interest rates is expected to increase, with potential cuts of 2-3 times in 2025, contingent on economic performance [6][33]. 2. Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025-2027 and raised its inflation expectations, suggesting that the impact of Trump's policies on inflation may be temporary [23][30]. - The median federal funds rate forecast for 2025 remains at 3.4%, with a potential for a 50 basis point cut [23][30]. 3. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.92% and 1.41% respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% [42]. - The dollar index has seen a slight decline, and gold prices have increased, indicating a shift in market sentiment [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and indicates a slowdown in the balance sheet reduction process [7][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the second consecutive time since the rate cut in September 2024, while also reducing the monthly limit for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to $5 billion starting in April 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's economic outlook shows a weakening economy, with an upward revision of the unemployment rate to 4.4% for 2025, while inflation expectations have been adjusted upward to 2.7% for the same year [15][20]. - The dot plot indicates that nearly 80% of members expect at least a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with close to 60% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [13][15]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, with the total assets decreasing from a peak of $8.96 trillion in March 2022 to $6.8 trillion as of March 12, 2025 [7][10]. - The Fed's statement removed the phrase "risk balance" and emphasized economic stability, noting that recent indicators show steady economic expansion [10][20]. Economic Projections - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, while maintaining long-term growth expectations at 1.8% [15][17]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2025, with core inflation expectations adjusted to 2.8% for the same year [15][17]. Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a rate cut in June 2025, with a potential 50 basis point reduction anticipated [20][21]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell stated that there is no rush to cut rates, emphasizing the need for clearer market signals before making policy adjustments [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Forever 21 has filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years, indicating ongoing struggles in the fast fashion industry and a significant reduction in its U.S. operations [1][2]. Group 1: Bankruptcy Filing - On October 16, Forever 21's operator submitted a bankruptcy protection application to a Delaware court, with total debts amounting to $1.58 billion [2]. - The company plans to terminate all operations in the U.S., with over 350 stores already beginning clearance sales [2]. - Stores operated by other franchisees outside the U.S. are not included in the bankruptcy plan [2]. Group 2: Previous Bankruptcy and Acquisition - Forever 21 previously filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019 and was acquired by a consortium led by American Brand Management Group (ABG) [2]. - The financial situation improved in the fiscal year 2021, but the positive trend was short-lived [2]. - ABG's CEO stated that acquiring Forever 21 was a mistake, highlighting the brand's unclear positioning and lackluster product marketing [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The brand has been increasingly abandoned by younger customers due to its lack of clear identity and product variety [2]. - The rise of e-commerce, persistent high inflation in the U.S., and supply chain challenges have contributed to Forever 21's uncertain future [2].

Core Insights - Inflation has successfully retreated, with February CPI year-on-year growth falling to 2.8% and core CPI dropping to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2021 [1] - Energy prices have turned from rising to falling, with February CPI energy item year-on-year growth recorded at -0.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - There is a risk of rebound in commodity prices, as core commodity year-on-year growth remained flat at -0.1%, but certain categories like furniture and clothing have shown an increase [3] Inflation Trends - Core service inflation continues to ease, with February core service year-on-year growth at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with the one-year expectation increasing to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, driven by concerns over economic policies [5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts have briefly increased following the inflation data release, but concerns over potential re-inflation due to tariffs have tempered these expectations [6]

文 ｜ 韦昕澄 崔嵘 李翀 贾天楚 美国2月CPI增速全面低于预期和前值，呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，反映了美国通胀继续降温的 趋势。然而，2月CPI并未反映美国加征2 5%钢铝产品关税和第二轮对华加征1 0%关税的通胀影 响，难以打消市场对于美国通胀前景的隐忧，在对等关税详情揭晓前更给人以"暴风雨前的宁静"之 感。我们预计美国总体CPI同比在4月前仍能因基数效应而继续下降、但下半年存在反弹隐忧，美 股不必急于"抄底"，短期在通胀反弹前不妨留意美债的交易机会。 美国2月通胀增速全面低于预期和前值，总体CPI环比升0 . 2%（前值0 . 5%），核心CPI环比升 0 . 2%（前值0 . 4%），总体CPI同比升2 . 8%（前值3 . 0%），核心CPI同比升3 . 1%（前值3 . 3%）， 四个读数都各低于预期0 . 1 p p t。 ▍ 本份CPI报告呈现"表里如一"的温和特征，显示美国通胀继续降温之势。 总体CPI同比重回" 2 "字头，核心CPI同比是2 0 2 1年4月以来最低值，商品CPI环比和服务CPI环比 都较前值回落，除住宅外核心服务CPI同比涨幅亦缩窄至3 . 9%，这些读数都反映了美 ...

编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并成为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两 家报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。作为 其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ，作者吴金铎 FT中文网 . 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站，旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 文丨吴金铎 特朗普再次就任总统后基本兑现了他竞选时期的关税措施，但也推出了意料之外的关税。关 税扰动不仅直接影响了全球进出口贸易和金融市场，也间接影响了美国的通胀预期，进而影 响美联储的货币政策路径。关税如何影响美国的通胀？怎样评估美国对华加征关税的通胀效 应及可持续性？ 关税的通胀传导路径 通胀数据（CPI和PPI）是一个百分比统计值，同比或环比的计算均基于基期或前值，因而若 美国对进口商品一次性全面加征关税，则关税对进口价格的影响是一次性的。若美国对进口 商品加征的关税是滚动式，比如逐月或者逐季加征，那么关税对进口商品和通胀的影响就是 多次叠加。例如，美国对外国进口商品一次 ...