Group 1 - Concerns about the dollar's loss of safe-haven appeal are increasing among forex strategists, with predictions of further declines in the global reserve currency over the next year amid rising recession fears [1] - Since Trump's return to the White House, the dollar has fallen nearly 9% against a basket of major currencies, with investor sentiment negatively impacted by his inconsistent tariff policies [1] - A survey of 83 respondents revealed that over 55% expressed concerns about the dollar's safe-haven status, a significant increase from about one-third in the previous survey [1] Group 2 - Nearly 80% of strategists expect little change in the net short positions of the dollar in the CFTC by the end of May, indicating some potential for a dollar rebound [2] - The median forecast suggests the euro will rise to 1.14 against the dollar in six months and 1.16 in twelve months, marking the largest monthly adjustment since November 2010 [2] - Despite expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, decision-makers have indicated they are not in a hurry to lower rates [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status, with alternative currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting from the current situation [3] - The yen and Swiss franc have both risen nearly 10% this year, with economists predicting further increases of 2.8% and 0.4% respectively over the next twelve months [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the temporary nature of Trump's 90-day tariff suspension, suggesting it is merely a delay rather than a strategic adjustment, as it fails to address underlying economic issues [1][12][25] - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% year-over-year and a core inflation rate soaring to 6.2%, leading to increased costs for consumers [3][5][21] - Trump's insistence on continuing the tariff battle despite economic pressures raises concerns among economists about a potential 4% GDP decline and the long-term viability of such policies [5][10][23] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation contrasts sharply with Trump's push for lower rates to stimulate the economy, creating a conflict in economic policy [10][18][23] - The looming pressure of $6 trillion in maturing U.S. debt in June exacerbates the financial situation, as the Treasury struggles to meet interest payments [10][18] - The article discusses the broader implications of the tariff policies, noting that 90% of tariff costs are borne by U.S. companies, which could lead to increased inflation and economic instability [14][23][25] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of global trade, suggesting that the U.S. economy is increasingly reliant on China, particularly in terms of supply chain integrity [16][25] - The potential for a financial crisis due to debt defaults within the next 90 days is highlighted, indicating a precarious financial environment [19][21] - The ongoing struggles of American consumers and businesses due to rising costs and supply chain disruptions are underscored, with specific examples of increased prices for gasoline and housing [21][23]

研究报告 股指月报 短期上行可期，中期压力犹存 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 电话：13519655433 邮箱：383566967@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 6 日星期二 【行情复盘】： 上周 IC2505 报收于 5590.2 点，相较前月下 跌 188.6 点，跌幅 3.26%。IM2505 报收于 5905.4 点，相较前月下跌 220.8 点，涨幅 3.6%。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 一、基本面分析： （一）根据最新经济数据，美国 2025 年第一季度实际 GDP 年 化环比增长率录得 - 0.3%，显著低于市场预期值，暴露出经济增长 动能的阶段性疲弱。尽管市场对美国消费市场的前景仍持乐观态度， 且在关税压力下美国经 ...

澳大利亚统计局4月30日发布的数据显示，2025年一季度澳大利亚整体消费者价格指数同比涨幅保持在 2.4%不变，作为基础通胀率指标的截尾均值通胀率降至2.9%，均处于澳大利亚央行设定的2%-3%这一 目标区间之内。 分析人士认为，考虑到去通胀进度符合澳央行预期，且目前全球不确定性升高拖累澳经济增长，5月20 日澳央行降息基本已成定局。 经济增长乏力 今年2月，澳大利亚央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.1%，这是澳央行在2020年11月之后首次降 息。虽然澳大利亚各大商业银行随即纷纷调整贷款利率，但市场普遍认为利率仍然相对较高，该国家庭 承受的财务压力还是较重。 同时，澳大利亚经济增长乏力，最新数据显示该国去年四季度才摆脱连续7个季度的人均GDP环比负增 长，近两年的人均经济衰退终告结束。但特朗普又挑起"关税战"，给澳大利亚经济再次蒙上厚重的阴 影，人们对澳大利亚陷入经济衰退的担忧被重新点燃。 目前，正在进行选战的澳总理阿尔巴尼斯和反对党领袖达顿均不敢表态，能在接下来的政府任期内排除 经济衰退的可能性。 降息是必然选择 在这种情况下，澳央行降息来保经济似乎已经是一个必然选择。在一些分析人士眼中，这就是无论通 ...

然而，当把目光投向未来，经济前景却不容乐观。全球经济增长放缓的大趋势下，美国经济难以独善其身。国际贸 易紧张局势持续升级，特朗普政府推行的关税政策不仅引发了贸易伙伴的反制措施，也对美国国内企业的供应链和 生产成本造成冲击。许多依赖进出口的企业面临订单减少、利润下滑的困境，这将直接影响企业未来的投资和招聘 计划。此外，科技行业的竞争加剧、地缘政治风险等因素，也在不断侵蚀美国经济的增长动力。在这种情况下，当 前稳健的劳动力市场数据似乎更像是对过去经济良好状态的一种反映，而无法完全代表未来的经济走向。随着前瞻 性经济指标，如制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）、企业盈利预期等逐渐恶化，经济陷入疲软的风险正在不断积聚。 一旦经济疲软的迹象愈发明显，美联储在今年晚些时候恢复宽松周期的可能性将显著增加。宽松货币政策，如降 息、量化宽松等，是美联储应对经济衰退、刺激经济增长的重要手段。当经济增长乏力、就业市场出现滑坡时，美 联储可能会通过降低利率，鼓励企业增加投资、消费者扩大消费，从而促进经济复苏；量化宽松政策则可以增加市 场上的货币供应量，缓解流动性紧张，稳定金融市场。尽管美联储目前拥有劳动力市场稳健这一 "缓冲垫"，但面对 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant debate, highlighting the complex political and economic dynamics at play [1][3] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell is exacerbated by Trump's criticism of Powell's cautious monetary policy, which contrasts with Trump's desire for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [3] - Trump's remarks have led to market anxiety, with concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Trump defended several controversial policies during the interview, including the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, while expressing frustration with judicial rulings that require due process [4] - Trump's belief in the effectiveness of his tariff policies is evident, as he claims that companies are gradually relocating production facilities back to the U.S., despite the negative impact on domestic businesses and consumers [4] - The discussion around Trump's potential third term candidacy has evolved, with him indicating a preference to pass the presidency to capable Republican successors after his current term [4]

国外 1. 惠誉：非农报告展示出经济弹性而不是经济衰退，美联储将继续袖手旁观 6. KCM Trade：美联储会议前，金价可能在3200-3350美元区间交易 金价周一走强，受美元走软提振，投资者等待美国与其贸易伙伴之间的贸易政策更加明朗，并期待美联 储本周晚些时候公布的政策决定。KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示，"在本周美联储议息会 议前，美元走势低迷，这令金价小幅走高。在美联储会议之前，我们可能会看到金价继续在3200-3350 美元区间交易。然而，任何有关该贸易协议的新新闻都可能导致波动性再次上升。" 惠誉评级惠誉评级Olu Sonola表示，这是一份不错的就业报告。本报告中劳动力市场展示的"R"字是弹 性（resilience），当然不是衰退（recession）。目前，鉴于贸易政策可能会拖累经济，我们应该抑制对 未来的热情。从本周的整体数据中得出的关键信息是，美国经济在4月的第一周基本面强劲，但前景仍 然非常不确定。美联储将继续袖手旁观，直到劳动力市场出现真正的疲软。 2. 高盛：稳健的非农数据为美联储提供了耐心的空间 高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay ...

KVB App发现在全球金融市场的浪潮中，黄金市场正上演着引人瞩目的行情变化。受美元走软的有力支撑，黄金价格在周一迎来强势上扬，投资者们纷纷 将目光投向这一贵金属资产，密切关注其后续走势，同时也在等待全球贸易关系的最新进展以及本周晚些时候举行的美联储政策会议，试图从中捕捉投资机 会。 KCM Trade 首席市场分析师 Tim Waterer 对当前黄金市场的走势进行了深入分析。他指出，在本周美联储会议召开前，美元表现低迷，这为黄金价格的温和 上涨创造了有利条件。基于此，在美联储会议前的这段时间内，预计金价将继续在 3200 - 3350 美元的区间内波动。不过，他也提醒投资者，任何有关新贸 易协议的消息都有可能打破当前的价格平衡，再次引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。 当下，整个金融市场的焦点都集中在本周美联储的利率决议以及几位美联储官员的讲话上，市场参与者试图通过这些信息来洞悉未来货币政策的走向。目 前，市场普遍预计美联储将继续维持利率不变。尽管如此，美国总统特朗普却加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔的施压力度。特朗普依据上周强劲的就业数据，认 为没有理由不降息。此前公布的美国 4 月就业增长数据好于市场预期，这一情况也使得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how President Trump's tariff policies may lead the Federal Reserve into a lose-lose situation, facing either an economic recession or a period of stagflation [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Challenges - The Federal Reserve is expected to face difficult communication regarding its strategies in response to economic conditions during the upcoming meeting [1] - Officials, including Powell, are likely to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, reflecting a commitment to combating inflation [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Richard Clarida, a senior advisor at Pacific Investment Management Company, emphasizes that the Federal Reserve will not preemptively cut rates based on predictions of economic slowdown; tangible data, particularly from the labor market, is necessary [1]

智通财经APP获悉，周一，美股三大指数下跌，标普500指数暂停其约20年来最长的连续上涨。美元兑 多数主要货币周一进一步走弱。OPEC+增产消息导致WTI油价创三年来新低。 【美股】道琼斯指数收盘下跌98.60点，跌幅0.24%，报41218.83点;标普500指数收盘下跌36.12点，跌幅 0.64%，报5650.55点;纳斯达克综合指数收盘下跌133.49点，跌幅0.74%，报17844.24点。特斯拉 (TSLA.US)跌2.4%，苹果(AAPL.US)跌3.1%，伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)跌5%。纳斯达克中国金龙指 数微跌，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨0.6%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数收盘上涨274.14点，涨幅1.19%，报23331.48点;法国CAC40指数收盘下跌42.55 点，跌幅0.55%，报7727.93点;欧洲斯托克50指数收盘下跌2.54点，跌幅0.05%，报5282.65点;西班牙 IBEX35指数收盘上涨86.59点，涨幅0.65%，报13508.29点;意大利富时MIB指数收盘上涨127.06点，涨幅 0.33%，报38455点。 【外汇】纽约尾盘，衡量美元对六种主 ...