Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and move upward [2][4]. - The good US economic data supports the copper price [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to operate within a range [2][13]. - The downside of lead may be limited [2][15]. - The price of tin is weakening [2][18]. - For aluminum, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in inventory; alumina is expected to be volatile and bullish; cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel is affected by news - related sentiment, and its fundamentals are under pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to move in a volatile manner due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of沪金2510 was 776.28 with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the closing price of沪银2510 was 9166 with a daily increase of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's government is expected to visit the Fed regarding decoration issues. The next - likely Fed chairman, Waller, suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1 [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铜主力合约 was 77,850 with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and the inventory of沪铜 decreased by 8,103 tons [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US retail sales data was strong, and the number of initial jobless claims last week decreased. China's imports of copper concentrates and unwrought copper and copper products in June showed different trends [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锌主力 was 22120 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [13]. - **News**: Potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪铅主力 was 16845 with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [15]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, potential Fed chairman candidates have different views on Fed policies, and Waller suggests a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪锡主力合约 was 261,920 with a daily decline of 0.77%. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar macro - level news as other metals, such as Fed - related news and US economic data [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the沪铝主力合约 was 20415. For alumina, the closing price of the沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3089. The trading volume, positions, and inventory of relevant contracts changed [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's independence is a "myth", and the US and India are close to reaching a trade agreement [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the沪镍主力 was 119,880, and the closing price of the不锈钢主力 was 12,730. The trading volume, positions, and relevant prices in the industrial chain changed [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada, the start of trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, and the resumption of production of a nickel smelter in Indonesia [26][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - Canada is committed to intensifying efforts to secure the most favorable trade agreements [1] Group 1 - The Canadian Finance Minister emphasized the importance of achieving beneficial trade deals for the country [1] - The government aims to enhance its negotiation strategies to improve trade outcomes [1] - There is a focus on collaboration with international partners to strengthen trade relations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It provides market conditions, news, capital flows, and operational suggestions for each sector, aiming to offer investors insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed a decline with volume contraction, and structural themes were active. Four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. Amid new US trade policy negotiation windows, it's advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market was in a narrow - range oscillation. With the central bank's increased open - market operations, the bond market sentiment improved. A range - bound operation strategy is recommended, and one can consider a curve - steepening strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Rumors of Trump dismissing the Fed chairman affected market sentiment, causing precious metals to rise. Gold has a long - term upward trend, but currently lacks a clear driver. Silver may have further upward potential, and it's recommended to buy on dips [8][10][11]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Container Shipping Futures**: The futures market oscillated downward. The 08 contract is expected to be strong, and it's advisable to be bullish on it [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US tariffs will change the supply pattern, and the market will focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term view is a weakening oscillation [15][16][19]. - **Alumina**: Spot supply is temporarily tight, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to short on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: High - level prices are under pressure. The short - term view is a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state during the off - season, with a weakening oscillation expected [24][25]. - **Zinc**: Inventories are increasing, and demand is expected to be weak. The short - term view is an oscillation [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to recover, and it's recommended to hold short positions [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The market oscillates strongly, but industrial overcapacity restricts upward movement. The short - term view is an interval adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market oscillates, with the short - term view being an interval operation [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is strong due to news, but fundamental pressure remains. The short - term view is a strong - range oscillation [39][40][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Valuation is being repaired, and the market may enter an oscillating phase [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is oscillating strongly. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are strong, and it's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread operation [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to rebound. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coke spread operation [52][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: US soybeans have strong bottom support, and domestic meal prices are supported by rising import costs. It's advisable to be cautiously bullish [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: There is potential supply pressure, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [61][62]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating and correcting [63].

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：达成了几项贸易协议，但其中许多是单方面的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of General Electric Aviation expresses optimism about the company's ability to adhere to trade agreements similar to the US-UK model with the EU or other countries [1] Group 1 - The company is optimistic about reaching trade agreements with the EU or other nations [1]

Core Points - The agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia involves Indonesia paying a 19% tariff while the U.S. pays no tariffs [1] - Indonesia commits to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, including many 777 models [3] - The tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Indonesia has been reduced from 32% to 19% through negotiations [5] Group 1 - Indonesia is the largest copper exporter, yet it has not received an exemption from the U.S. 50% tariff on all imported copper [3] - The agreement marks a significant achievement for Indonesia, as it is the first Southeast Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., with Vietnam facing a higher tariff of 20% [5][8] - The deal is seen as a strategic move for Indonesia to access the U.S. market while maintaining its export trade, despite the seemingly unfavorable tariff conditions [8] Group 2 - The U.S. is expected to generate significant tariff revenue, with a potential $300 billion from a minimum 10% tariff on $3 trillion in imports annually [8] - The U.S. government recently reported a rare fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first since 2017, indicating a positive impact from tariff policies [8] - There has been no significant inflation resulting from the tariffs, suggesting that the U.S. may continue to implement tariffs as a regular practice without adverse economic effects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The nominee for South Korea's foreign minister believes a trade agreement may be reached before the implementation of the 25% tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in August [1] Trade Agreement Details - The nominee did not specify what concessions South Korea is willing to make to reach the agreement [1] - U.S. concerns include the opening of South Korea's agricultural market, particularly in sensitive areas such as beef and rice, as well as easing digital regulations [1]

Core Points - India is nearing a trade agreement with the Trump administration, seeking more favorable tariff rates than Indonesia [1] - The negotiations aim to reduce proposed tariffs to below 20% [1][2] - India is striving for a competitive advantage in tariffs compared to regional peers [2] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - Trump announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian imports, which is lower than the previously threatened 32% [1] - The U.S. is expected to gain access to the Indian market as part of the negotiations [1] - Indian officials are pushing for a tariff rate below 20% during discussions in Washington [1] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - India aims to secure a tariff rate that is more advantageous than those of Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam [2] - The Indian negotiation team hopes to lower tariffs to below 10% in exchange for significant concessions from the U.S. [2] - India is reluctant to open its agricultural and dairy sectors but may offer concessions in non-agricultural areas [2] Group 3: Tariff Trends - Recent developments indicate that tariff rates are trending towards a range of 15%-20% [3] - The U.S. is using tariff announcements as a negotiation strategy to secure better terms from trade partners [3] - Malaysia is also in negotiations with the U.S. regarding its own tariffs, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements [3]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's analysis indicates that the trade agreement will have a limited impact on improving Japan's economic outlook, highlighting the severe effects of U.S. tariffs on Japanese exports [1] Economic Outlook - Japan's economic prospects are described as extremely bleak, with export data revealing the harsh impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - Even if Japan reaches an agreement to alleviate some of the stricter tariffs, a full return to pre-Trump conditions seems unlikely [1] Trade Relations - Efforts to increase imports of U.S. goods or relax restrictions on U.S. manufactured products have not resulted in tariff relief [1] - Japan, as the largest foreign investor in the U.S., has not received any special treatment in trade negotiations [1] Government Response - The Japanese government has stated it cannot afford to support the economy, further darkening the economic outlook [1] - Although the government has promised assistance to households, there is a lack of strategy to find domestic sources of growth, leading to a weakening of the export-driven growth model [1]

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. rebounded in June, indicating strong bilateral trade amid ongoing tariff negotiations between the two countries [1] Trade Performance - Swiss exports to the U.S. increased by 26.9% in June compared to May, after seasonal adjustments [1] - Imports from the U.S. saw a slight growth of 0.2% [1] Trade Agreement Negotiations - Switzerland is in negotiations with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement, with Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter stating that the two countries are "very close" to an agreement [1] - Reports suggest that the draft agreement includes guarantees to avoid tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports [1] Political Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated to Switzerland that an agreement is imminent, but President Trump mentioned that global pharmaceutical tariffs could be implemented as early as August 1 [1] - Swiss left-wing lawmakers are calling for joint countermeasures with the EU in response to U.S. tariffs [1]