在美联储货币政策转向宽松、全球地缘政治风险加剧以及央行持续购金的多重驱动下，摩根士丹利大幅上调金价预期，预计这一传统避险资产将 在2026年继续刷新历史高点，直至冲刺每盎司4800美元大关。 摩根士丹利在1月5日发布的研究报告中指出，黄金价格正受到宏观经济和政策转变的强力支撑。这些因素包括美联储预期的宽松周期、美联储领 导层的变动，以及各国央行和投资基金持续买入。此前，现货黄金已在2025年创下历史性涨幅，年终收涨64%，创下自1979年以来的最强年度表 现。 但在1月7日，贵金属市场遭遇重挫，现货黄金一度失守4450美元/盎司关口。据华尔街见闻，彭博商品指数（BCOM）即将于1月8日至14日启动年 度权重再平衡，市场正面临被动基金"技术性抛售"带来的流动性冲击压力，黄金面临短期看跌反转风险。 长期方面，地缘政治的不确定性进一步点燃了市场对避险资产的需求。据央视新闻报道，当地时间1月3日中午（北京时间1月4日凌晨），美国总 统特朗普、国防部长赫格塞思在佛罗里达州海湖庄园就美军对委内瑞拉动武、将委内瑞拉总统马杜罗控制并移送出境举行记者会。 随着委内瑞拉局势升级，包括美国军事力量介入及该国领导人被捕的消息传出，不 ...

1月7日，昨日黄金市场上演了一场精彩的探底回升行情，多空博弈后多头强势掌控局面，日线收出的长 下影中阳线，为今日走势奠定了明确的多头基调。在全球避险情绪暗流涌动、技术面突破信号显现的背 景下，今日行情大概率延续强势，回踩布局多单成为核心交易逻辑。回顾昨日盘面走势，黄金早盘以 4450.6点位开盘后，短暂承压回落，空头试图发起冲击，将行情下探至4426.5的日线低点。但这一回落 并未引发恐慌性抛售，反而快速激活市场买盘力量，多头开始组织强势反攻，推动行情震荡拉升。随着 买盘资金的持续涌入，金价一路攀升，最高触及4497点位，尾盘虽有小幅整理，但最终收线于4495.5点 位，形成一根下影线极长的中阳线。这一形态的出现，绝非偶然，而是多空力量彻底转换的明确信号。 从技术面解析，这根长下影中阳线蕴含多重关键信息。首先，下影线部分反映出4426.5附近存在坚实的 支撑力量，空头打压未能突破下方承接盘，说明市场对当前价位的认可度较高，下方空间已被大幅压 缩。其次，中阳线实体饱满，且收盘价贴近日内高点，彰显了多头的绝对主导地位，意味着经过早盘的 洗盘后，多头已完成蓄力，成功扭转短期博弈格局。这种"探底回升"的走势，往往出现 ...

Market Analysis - On January 7, amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, gold has shown exceptional performance as a traditional safe-haven asset, with spot gold prices rising approximately 1% to close at $4,494 per ounce [1][5] - In early Asian trading on January 7, spot gold fluctuated at high levels, reaching $4,500.27 per ounce, nearing the historical high of $4,549.71 per ounce set on December 24 of the previous year [1][5] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened investor concerns over global uncertainties, particularly following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment and significant capital inflows into the precious metals market [1][5] Technical Analysis of Gold - The long-term upward trend in gold has not fundamentally changed, with the previous high of $4,550 not yet effectively tested, and there has been no significant corrective movement since the price began rising from lower levels [6] - The 4-hour chart indicates a strong bullish alignment of moving averages, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages providing robust support, limiting the potential for short-term pullbacks [7] - The key support level is identified at $4,460, which is crucial for determining market strength; if this level holds, it is recommended to establish long positions targeting $4,520 and $4,550 [7] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver has reached a high of $82.7, with strong bullish momentum, and the long-term upward trend remains intact [8] - However, due to short-term price increases and divergence in technical indicators, a phase of adjustment is likely, which is considered a healthy correction within the overall upward trend [8] - The critical support level is at $77.5, which serves as both a previous consolidation point and an important defense level for short-term pullbacks; it is advisable to focus on long positions near this support level [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Chow Sang Sang has raised the prices of certain gold jewelry items, reflecting the rapid transmission of international gold price fluctuations to the consumer market [1][3] - The price increase ranges from 10% to 13%, with specific items like the "one-price" transport beads increasing by approximately 200 yuan, and other items seeing price hikes between 200 to 1500 yuan [1][3] - This price adjustment marks the first public price change by a major gold jewelry brand in China since the beginning of 2026 [3] Group 2 - On January 6, the price of Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was reported at 1387 yuan per gram, an increase of 11 yuan from the previous day [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, which have heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to a significant increase in international gold prices, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2.7% to reach 4459.7 USD per ounce [5] - UBS has revised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from 4500 USD to 5000 USD per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6] Group 3 - The article notes that several brands, including Chow Sang Sang, have previously raised their gold jewelry prices in response to rising gold prices, with a notable price increase occurring in September 2025 [7] - Chow Sang Sang's mid-year results for 2025 showed a revenue of 11.036 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 2.45%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 71.44% to 900 million HKD [7] - As of January 6, Chow Sang Sang's stock price rose by 0.50% to 12.13 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 8.148 billion HKD [8]

Group 1 - The core event involves the U.S. military action against Venezuela, leading to the capture of President Maduro and his wife, with the U.S. stating it will "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition occurs [1] - Venezuela, despite having the largest proven oil reserves globally (approximately 300 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the world's total), currently produces only about 1 million barrels per day, which is roughly 1% of international supply [1][2] - The impact of Venezuela's situation on global oil prices is expected to be limited due to its small share in the global market and the nature of its oil, which requires extensive processing to be marketable [2] Group 2 - The core factors influencing international oil prices remain supply and demand dynamics, with predictions indicating a continued oversupply situation through 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and a shift towards renewable energy sources [2] - In contrast, the gold market is experiencing increased demand as investors seek safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching new highs recently [3] - Central banks are projected to increase their gold purchases, with an expected net buying of 950 tons in 2026, which supports the bullish outlook for gold prices [3]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com （责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） 21Shares策略师Matt Mena表示，比特币近期反弹表明，地缘政治紧张局势加剧正推动投资者转向 加密货币。他称，比特币正日益被视为一种"中立"储备资产，与黄金、白银等传统避险资产并驾齐驱。 比特币去年跌幅超6%，但从历史来看，其从未出现过连续两年下跌的情况，这为今年比特币上涨提供 了依据。 ...

近期，委内瑞拉局势风云突变，全世界都在关注，那么到底在委内瑞拉发生了什么？这次事件的影响还 会持续多久？对国际市场有哪些影响？今天我们来讲一讲。 说完原油，我们接下来就来说说投资者关心的另一个问题，就是黄金价格，这里的故事可能更加波折。 近日，投资者纷纷涌入避险资产，黄金价格近期又创下新高。展望2026年，多家机构预测，实际利率将 继续下行，全球经济和世界贸易的不确定还是很高，美国中期选举等政治变数还将增加资本市场的波 动。这些因素都会持续吸引投资者增加对黄金配置。根据国际货币基金组织的最新预测，2026年全球央 行的黄金净购买量将达到950吨，高于此前预期的900吨，各国央行在2026年对黄金的热情可是"丝毫不 减"，各国央行的买买买可是实实在在的需求，这还会继续成为金价走高的重要力量。 最后我们总结一下——委内瑞拉局势，虽然引发高度关注，但对国际原油市场的实质冲击实际上是比较 有限的；而与之相伴的避险情绪，或许在更长的时间维度上为黄金市场提供了坚实支撑。所以，大家一 定要看清局势背后的结构性因素。 首先，尽管委内瑞拉尽管储油量丰富，但在国际供应中的占比却很小。委内瑞拉是石油输出国组织—— 欧佩克的创始成员 ...

2026年开年以来，全球金融市场似乎与2025年的整体格局相比，并未发生太多变化。除了节节攀升的全球股市外，黄金、白银开年也持续大涨，继续延续 着历史性的牛市之旅。 行情数据显示，现货黄金价格在新年首个完整交易周可谓强势开局，周一大幅上涨2.7%，至每盎司4444.52美元，盘中曾触及去年12月29日以来最高，距 离12月26日创下的4550美元的纪录高位并不遥远。 而白银价格自隔夜迄今更是堪称疯狂：现货白银价格在周一一天内就又跳涨了5.1%，周二亚洲时段又飙升逾3%，再度逼近80美元关口。沪银主力合约日 内更是一度暴涨8.00%，现报19452.00元/千克。 许多业内人士目前正将委内瑞拉新年伊始飞出的"黑天鹅"，视为金银价格上涨的主要原因，因这再度激发了人们对贵金属等避险资产的需求。 美国上周六突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，这是美国自1989年入侵巴拿马以来对拉丁美洲进行的最直接干预。美国总统特朗普还警告称，如 果委内瑞拉方面抵制美国开放其石油行业和阻止毒品贩运的努力，将再次发动打击，并暗示可能就非法毒品流动问题对哥伦比亚和墨西哥采取行动。 Heraeus Metals贵金属交易员Alexand ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions, particularly the unexpected U.S. military actions in Venezuela, have significantly driven up gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 6, gold futures for February surged by $129.50, closing at $4,459.00, while March silver futures rose by $5.975, ending at $77.01 [1][5]. - Despite the global stock markets reacting relatively calmly to the Venezuelan situation, with some indices reaching historical highs, the precious metals market showed a more strategic response from investors [5][6]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has issued warnings to several countries in Central and South America to cut off illegal drug trafficking routes, indicating a renewed intention to dominate affairs in the Western Hemisphere [1][5]. - The interest shown by the U.S. in acquiring Greenland and the geopolitical instability following significant military actions against Iran last summer contribute to the overall uncertainty in international relations [1][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current geopolitical landscape, including Russia's economic challenges and its nuclear arsenal, has led to a stronger focus on precious metals as a means of asset protection [6]. - The interplay of various global factors is fundamentally altering the supply-demand dynamics for gold and silver, resulting in a continuous influx of safe-haven investments into the precious metals market [6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including the December non-farm payroll report and other key indicators, will be crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [6]. - The U.S. dollar index is currently under slight pressure, trading lower, while crude oil is supported by geopolitical tensions, trading around $58.25 [6]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The core target for gold bulls is to break and hold above the historical high of $4,584.00, with solid support around $4,200.00 [7]. - For silver, bulls are aiming to overcome the record resistance at $82.67, with short-term support identified at $69.225 [7]. - The overall upward trend for gold and silver remains strong, with significant potential for safe-haven premiums to be released amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7].

2026年开年以来，全球金融市场似乎与2025年的整体格局相比，并未发生太多变化。除了节节攀升的全球股市外，黄金、白银开年也持续 大涨，继续延续着历史性的牛市之旅。 行情数据显示，现货黄金价格在新年首个完整交易周可谓强势开局，周一大幅上涨2.7%，至每盎司4444.52美元，盘中曾触及去年12月29 日以来最高，距离12月26日创下的4550美元的纪录高位并不遥远。 而白银价格自隔夜迄今更是堪称疯狂：现货白银价格在周一一天内就又跳涨了5.1%，周二亚洲时段又飙升逾3%，再度逼近80美元关口。 沪银主力合约日内更是一度暴涨8.00%，现报19452.00元/千克。 许多业内人士目前正将委内瑞拉新年伊始飞出的"黑天鹅"，视为金银价格上涨的主要原因，因这再度激发了人们对贵金属等避险资产的需 求。 美国上周六突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，这是美国自1989年入侵巴拿马以来对拉丁美洲进行的最直接干预。美国总统特朗 普还警告称，如果委内瑞拉方面抵制美国开放其石油行业和阻止毒品贩运的努力，将再次发动打击，并暗示可能就非法毒品流动问题对哥伦 比亚和墨西哥采取行动。 Heraeus Metals贵金属交易员Alexa ...