Core Insights - The French private sector employment remained stable in the second quarter of this year, with a decrease of 4,800 jobs from March to June, reflecting a 0% change quarter-on-quarter and a 0.4% decline year-on-year, equating to a loss of 93,900 jobs compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1 - The French economy achieved a growth of 0.3% in the second quarter, which contributed to the stability of employment numbers despite pressures on job demand from increased labor productivity [1] - Current private sector employment levels in France exceed pre-pandemic figures, showing a 5.2% increase compared to the end of Q4 2019, translating to an addition of 1 million jobs [1]

此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时 继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，GTC集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）表示，尽管英国 通胀回升至3.6%，远高于英国央行长期设定的2%目标，但英国央行本月降息其实并不令人意外，由于 全球因素和国内情绪，英国经济动能持续显现疲软迹象。 连投两次，是什么让MPC分裂 此次议息会议出现了"三方分歧"的投票局面，有报道称这也是英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee，MPC）史上首次被迫进行两次投票。MPC有9名委员，针对利率决议的首次投票结果 为：4名委员支持按兵不动，4名委员支持降息25个基点，1名委员支持降息50个基点。在第二次投票 中，有5名委员投票支持降息25个基点，4名委员投票支持按兵不动。 分析人士称，这种投票局面反映出当前的经济困境：一边是增长疲弱和失业上升，另一边是显著高于目 标的通胀，英国央行面临两难抉择。 官方数据显示，2025年春季英国经济活动出现萎缩，根据英国国家统计局（ONS） ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to lower the Bank Rate from 4.25% to 4% in August 2025, reflecting a significant decline in inflation over the past two years and recognizing existing idle capacity in the economy [1] - The average CPI inflation for Q2 2025 was 3.5%, up from 2.8% in Q1, with June's inflation reaching 3.6%, driven by rising energy, food, and regulated prices [2] - Short-term inflation is expected to peak at 4.0% in September, averaging around 3.75% in the second half of the year, and declining to 3.6% by year-end [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Labor Market - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 0.1%, indicating weak potential growth with idle capacity at approximately 0.5% of potential GDP [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in May 2025, projected to reach 4.9% by mid-2026, with job growth stagnating due to rising labor costs [3] - Future GDP growth is expected to fluctuate between 1.2% and 1.7% over the next four years, with household savings rates being a key driver [2] Group 3: Risks and Global Environment - There are increasing medium-term inflation risks due to potential short-term inflation rebounds, global energy price fluctuations, and trade policy changes [3] - Economic growth faces downward pressure from weak domestic demand and geopolitical factors, with ongoing geopolitical risks affecting energy prices [4] - The Bank of England maintains a restrictive monetary policy to guide inflation back to target, with future rate adjustments being data-dependent [4]

8月7日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率25个基点至4%。 货币政策委员会分歧巨大 决议公布后，英镑兑美元短线拉升约30点，现报1.3411。交易员减少对英国央行降息押注，预计今年将再降息17个基点。 为何降息？ 英国央行在声明中表示，在限制性货币政策立场的支持下，过去两年半通胀情况持续缓解，因此该央行已经多次下调利率。货币政策委员会仍专注于消除 任何现有或新出现的持续通胀压力，以在中期内可持续地使通胀率恢复到2%的目标。 数据显示，英国6月通胀水平（消费物价指数CPI）上涨3.6%，略高于5月报告和委员会6月会议时的预期。其中，食品、能源和服务价格都出现了上涨。 但英国央行强调，潜在的国内价格和工资压力的下降路径仍在继续，尽管程度不同。由于能源和食品价格的发展，2025年第二季度CPI升至3.5%。薪酬增 长速度仍然维持高位，但预计今年剩余时间仍将大幅放缓。近几个月来，服务业消费者价格通胀基本持平。委员会继续对宽松的薪酬压力将在多大程度上 影响消费者价格通胀保持警惕。 英国预计CPI通胀率将进一步小幅上升，并在9月达到4.0%的峰值，此后通胀率将回落至2%的目标。尽管如此，委员会仍然对通胀的暂时上升可能给工资 和 ...

一边是增长疲弱和失业率上升，另一边是显著高于目标的通胀，英国央行面临两难抉择。 当地时间7日（周四），英国央行宣布将基准利率下调25个基点至4.0%。这是英国央行本轮降息周期开 启以来第五次降息，英国利率已降至两年多来最低水平。 决议公布后，英镑对美元短线拉升约40点至1.3409，英国两年期国债收益率上涨5.5个基点至3.892%， 英国富时100指数维持跌势，下跌0.71%。 此次降息符合此前金融市场预期。分析人士指出，英国央行意在应对经济放缓和就业转弱的压力，同时 继续监控仍高于目标的通胀水平，在支持增长与抑制通胀之间寻求微妙平衡。 在接受第一财经记者采访时，GTC集团首席分析师贾米尔·艾哈迈德（Jameel Ahmad）表示，尽管英国 通胀回升至3.6%，远高于英国央行长期设定的2%目标，但英国央行本月降息其实并不令人意外，由于 全球因素和国内情绪，英国经济动能持续显现疲软迹象。 连投两次，是什么让MPC分裂 此次议息会议出现了"三方分歧"的投票局面，有报道称这也是英国央行货币政策委员会（Monetary Policy Committee，MPC）史上首次被迫进行两次投票。MPC有9名委员，针对利率决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasizes that the central bank should not lower interest rates too quickly or excessively, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation is not expected to rebound persistently, with different levels of price and wage pressures observed [1] - Wage growth is projected to slow to just below 4% by the end of the year, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - There is an increased focus on the risks of second-round effects from inflation, particularly concerning food and energy prices, which are significant for consumers [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting more caution than previously anticipated, which may impact overall economic activity [1] - The risks of economic activity declining are slightly elevated, suggesting potential challenges ahead for growth [1] Inflation Targeting - The central bank is committed to taking all necessary measures to achieve a 2% inflation target, indicating a strong focus on maintaining price stability [1]

【导读】英国降息25个基点 大家好，简单关注一下英国央行降息的消息。 英国降息25个基点 8月7日晚间，英国央行将基准利率从4.25%下调至4%，重启"逐步和谨慎"的降息路径。 外界普遍预期英国央行将在本次会议上降息25个基点，但交易员和经济学家更关注的是决策过程中央行内部的支持比例。 最终，货币政策委员会（MPC）中有5名成员投票支持将利率下调25个基点至4%，而另外4名成员则支持维持利率不变。此前一次三方意见分裂的投票未 能达成多数意见，因此本次是英国央行货币政策委员会28年历史上首次需要两轮投票才能作出利率决定。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利在书面声明中表示："这是一个非常微妙的决定。利率仍处于下行轨道，但未来的降息将需要逐步且谨慎地进行。" 在此次决议公布前，经济学家普遍预计支持维持不变的票数会更少。这次分裂的投票结果凸显出英国央行内部对如何应对经济增长放缓与通胀反弹并存的 复杂局面的巨大分歧。 相比之下，美国联邦储备系统今年迄今为止尚未降息，以观察未来的价格压力走势，这一策略也引来了特朗普的嘲讽。 尽管如此，英国央行继续维持其"逐步且谨慎"降息的整体指引，同时警告经济中已出现松动迹象，劳动力需求正在降温 ...

Core Insights - The threshold for entering the top 30 cities by GDP has increased to 450 billion yuan, indicating that all cities in this group are expected to surpass the trillion yuan mark for the year [1][2] - Shanghai and Beijing remain the only two cities with a GDP exceeding 20 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with respective totals of 26,222.15 billion yuan and 25,029.2 billion yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 17.3% and 14.9% [1] - Other major cities like Shenzhen, Chongqing, and Guangzhou have GDPs between 15 trillion and 20 trillion yuan, but their growth rates are considerably lower than those of Shanghai and Beijing, indicating potential areas for improvement [1] Summary by Categories Top Cities - Shanghai: 26,222.15 billion yuan, up from 22,345.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [1] - Beijing: 25,029.2 billion yuan, up from 21,791.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.9% [1] - Shenzhen: 18,322.26 billion yuan, up from 17,302.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.9% [1] - Chongqing: 15,929.58 billion yuan, up from 15,138.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.2% [1] - Guangzhou: 15,080.99 billion yuan, up from 14,297.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [1] Cities Exceeding 1 Trillion Yuan - Suzhou: 13,002.35 billion yuan, up from 12,059.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8% [2] - Chengdu: 12,108.2 billion yuan, up from 11,152.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.6% [2] - Hangzhou: 11,303 billion yuan, up from 10,137 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [2] - Wuhan: 10,592.8 billion yuan, up from 9,975.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [2] Cities Approaching 1 Trillion Yuan - Nanjing: 9,179.18 billion yuan, up from 8,607.4 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.6% [2] - Ningbo: 8,861 billion yuan, up from 8,207.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.0% [3] - Tianjin: 8,706.6 billion yuan, up from 8,191.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.3% [3] Cities with GDP Between 6,000 and 7,000 Billion Yuan - Jinan: 6,674 billion yuan, up from 6,144.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.6% [3] - Xian: 6,358.2 billion yuan, up from 5,717.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.2% [3] Cities Below 6,000 Billion Yuan - Yantai: 5,375.1 billion yuan, up from 4,987.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.8% [3] - Changzhou: 5,079.1 billion yuan, up from 4,773.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.4% [3] - Wenzhou: 4,831.9 billion yuan, up from 4,297.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.4% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the economic growth, inflation, and related price trends in multiple industries. It shows that steel inventory is accumulating faster, power plant daily consumption is rising moderately, and there are various changes in the prices of agricultural products, industrial products, and energy commodities [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory 1.1 Production: Moderate Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption increased moderately. On August 5, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 89.0 tons, up 0.9% from July 29. On August 1, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 223.1 tons, up 0.3% from July 24 [5][12]. - Blast furnace operating rate fluctuated at a high level. On August 1, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, unchanged from July 25; the capacity utilization rate was 90.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from July 25. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 93.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from July 25 [15]. - Tire operating rate declined slightly. On July 31, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 61.1%, down 3.9 percentage points from July 24; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.5%, down 1.4 percentage points from July 24. The operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weakly stable [17]. 1.2 Demand: Faster Accumulation of Steel Inventory - New home sales in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month. From August 1 - 5, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 162,000 square meters, down 20.1% from July, 21.2% from August last year, and 40.6% from August 2023 [23]. - The auto market retail was stable and relatively strong. In July, retail sales increased by 7% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [24]. - Steel prices corrected. On August 5, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 2.3%, - 2.0%, - 1.4%, and + 0.4% respectively compared with July 29 [5][31]. - Cement prices declined at a low level. On August 5, the national cement price index fell 0.6% from July 29. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River region fell 1.3% and 0.2% respectively [32]. - Glass prices fell further. On August 5, the active glass futures contract price was 1,073 yuan/ton, down 9.2% from July 29 [36]. - The container shipping freight index continued to decline. On August 1, the CCFI index decreased by 2.3% and the SCFI index decreased by 2.6% compared with July 25 [38]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index at the Second - Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past 5 Years - Pork prices remained weak. On August 5, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from July 29. In August, the average wholesale price of pork decreased month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [45]. - The agricultural product price index was at the second - lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years. On August 5, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.7% from July 29. By variety, vegetables (+2.5%) > chicken (+0.9%) > beef (+0.4%) > pork (-0.8%) > eggs (-1.0%) > mutton (-1.1%) > fruits (-2.4%) [49]. 2.2 PPI: Oil Price Decline - Oil prices declined. On August 5, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.6 and 65.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.7% and 5.9% from July 29 [54]. - Copper and aluminum prices fell. On August 5, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.4% and 1.6% respectively compared with July 29 [58]. - Most industrial product prices rose. Since August, most industrial product prices increased month - on - month, and most of them increased year - on - year. The prices of cement and glass decreased month - on - month, while other industrial products generally increased [62].

报告还指出，随着经济增长放缓，预计拉美地区的就业增长也将受限。此外，预计2025年至2026年 该地区通货膨胀率将保持在3%左右，由于国际粮食和能源价格都可能上升，通胀上行压力和风险持续 存在。 报告认为，应从提升财政支出效率、优化税收管理、改革国际金融体系、完善主权债务解决机制、 加强开发银行在资源调动中的作用等方面入手，提升拉美地区发展融资能力。 新华社圣地亚哥8月5日电（记者朱雨博）联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会（拉加经委会）5日 在智利首都圣地亚哥发布的年度经济研究报告中指出，2025年拉美和加勒比地区经济预计增长2.2%， 2026年将增长2.3%。 报告指出，2025年至2026年，受地缘政治冲突加剧、金融环境紧缩、国际贸易疲软等外部因素和消 费萎靡等内部因素影响，拉美地区经济前景面临高度不确定性，或将导致该地区国家赤字扩大，对外资 产生更多依赖。 分区域来看，报告预计南美洲经济今年将增长2.7%，高于地区平均水平，这主要得益于阿根廷、 厄瓜多尔、哥伦比亚等国的经济表现；中美洲和墨西哥经济将增长1.0%，增速同比大幅下滑，主要由 于来自美国的需求缩水；加勒比地区（不含圭亚那）经济将增长1.8%， ...