Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing optimization of housing provident fund policies across various regions in China, highlighting the potential for systemic reform and expanded functionality of the provident fund to support the real estate market and improve residents' living conditions [2][12]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Trends - Recent policy changes include an increase in the rental withdrawal limit in Shijiazhuang to a maximum of 24,000 yuan per person annually, and the introduction of new projects for property fee withdrawals [2]. - As of December 22, 2025, approximately 270 optimization policies have been implemented nationwide, with expectations for continued trends in 2026 [2][12]. - The central economic work conference has prioritized the reform of the housing provident fund system as a key task for the real estate sector in the coming year [2]. Group 2: Expanded Usage and Support - Various regions have increased support for housing loans, with Tianjin raising the maximum loan limits for first and second homes to 1.2 million yuan and 1 million yuan, respectively [4]. - The article notes that cities like Shijiazhuang and Xuzhou are allowing provident fund withdrawals for property fees and heating costs, indicating a broadening of the fund's usage beyond housing [6]. - There is a notable trend towards allowing withdrawals for various purposes, including home repairs and property taxes, with cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou leading these initiatives [5][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Structural challenges remain, such as the tension between fund surpluses in smaller cities and the demand in larger cities, which complicates cross-regional fund allocation [9]. - The article emphasizes the need for improved data sharing and system integration to streamline the loan approval process and reduce fraud risks [9]. - Experts predict that by 2026, the "one fund for multiple uses" model may be promoted, allowing the provident fund to cover expenses like home renovations and elder care, transforming it into a comprehensive family support account [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 11 月推盘未售去化周期较 10 月上升 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 18 日） 挂牌价调涨占比：2025 年 11 月，12 个样本城市挂牌价调涨房源占比从 10 月 的 5.5%下降 0.1 PCT 至 5.4%，同比降幅较 10 月收窄 7.0 PCT 至-48.6%。 周观点：（一）2025 年中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调从过去的"更大 力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场"。"高质量推进 城市更新"、"深化住房公积金制度改革"、"有序推动'好房子'建设"等 表述值得关注，后续或可关注专项债和专项借款等金融工具进一步支持城市更 新，以及住房公积金贷款利率进一步调降、额度进一步提高和住房公积金用途 拓宽等可能性。行业基本面下政策的边际变化可能以及针对未来的压力测试或 依然是资本市场关注的要点。（二）判断净租金回报率与按揭利率之差收窄是 推动新房及二手房的合计总需求筑底的关键观察点；重视在供应缩量预期、供 给品质优化以及购房者画像 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄，二手房网签面积同比降幅扩大 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +5 PCT | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -19 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | 一线城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （4 城） ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Directions - The meeting proposed five new "musts," which are an iteration of last year's five "musts," reflecting a deeper understanding of economic work[16] - Fiscal policy continues to be described as "more proactive," focusing on improving fiscal revenue, maintaining debt intensity, and optimizing expenditure structure[18] - Monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on policy effectiveness, balancing between broad money supply and credit[22] Group 2: Key Economic Tasks - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, with expectations for a "rural and urban resident income increase plan" and efforts to stabilize investment[24] - Risk prevention in key areas, particularly in real estate, focuses on stabilizing housing prices and improving supply-demand dynamics, with "deepening housing fund system reform" as a major highlight for next year[28]

继中央经济工作会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"后，山东省率先出手。 12月12日，山东省发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》，其中提出，丰富"换新"模式，拓宽旧房 处置途径，多措并举降低换房成本等。 对于出台新政的原因，山东省住建厅相关负责人表示，旨在通过机制创新、政策支持和服务优化，打通 新房与二手房市场壁垒，缩短交易周期，降低置换成本，激发住房消费活力。 中指研究院预计，各地去库存政策将继续落位，如收购存量商品房、加大购房补贴力度促需求、推动住 房"以旧换新"等，增加改善性住房供给、优化住房供给空间和产品结构等或是优化供给的重要方向。 山东发布"以旧换新"指导意见 12月12日，山东省住建厅等10个部门联合发布了《关于住房"以旧换新"的指导意见》。《指导意见》共 包含6部分、15条具体措施，系统构建了支持住房"以旧换新"的政策框架。 一是丰富"换新"模式，提升置换效率。明确提出"卖旧换新""收旧换新""拆旧换新"三种模式。支持房地 产经纪机构提供"帮卖"服务并引入"兜底收购"机制；鼓励各类主体市场化收购二手房；在符合规划和安 全要求前提下，探索城镇老旧住房原拆原建更新路径，新增公共设施不计容积率。 二是 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures, including controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply [1] - The inventory clearance pressure remains significant, with the national inventory cycle for new residential properties reaching 27.4 months as of November 2025, indicating a slowdown in clearance speed [1] - First and second-tier cities face relatively lower inventory clearance pressure, while third and fourth-tier cities should expand home purchase subsidies and restrict new land supply to control new supply [1] Group 2 - The encouragement of acquiring existing residential properties for affordable housing is a key strategy for inventory clearance, indicating a shift towards linking existing property acquisition with affordable housing development [2] - The reform of the housing provident fund system is crucial, with over 260 optimization policies introduced since 2025, aimed at supporting real estate development [2] - The construction of "good houses" is seen as a focus for high-quality real estate development, promoting a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with an emphasis on green, smart, and elderly-friendly designs [3] Group 3 - The core of promoting "good houses" is to guide demand through quality supply, with positive market reception expected to support the housing market in 2026 [3] - The conference called for accelerating the establishment of a new real estate development model, focusing on improving sales and inventory clearance while promoting high-quality development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" as a targeted deployment based on the assessment of market trends [1][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of the end of October, the total unsold commercial housing area in China has decreased for eight consecutive months, yet still stands at 75,606 million square meters, indicating that inventory reduction remains crucial for stabilizing the market [4][14]. - The current urban development landscape in China has shifted from building on a "blank slate" to updating the "existing map," marking 2025 as a critical phase for deep adjustment and structural reshaping in the real estate market [3][13]. Group 2: Inventory Management Strategies - Future inventory reduction strategies will focus on "optimizing existing stock and controlling new supply." Encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing is expected to be a key measure to activate inventory, improve supply-demand relationships, and address housing difficulties for certain groups [5][15]. - Local governments, such as Guangzhou, are actively promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing purposes and are increasing their acquisition efforts [5][15]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Reforms - The conference highlights the need to deepen the reform of the housing provident fund system to enhance its role and release market potential. Since 2025, over 260 policies related to the provident fund have been introduced nationwide, with expectations for further deepening of measures in 2026 to inject more "vitality" into housing consumption [7][17]. - The approach to controlling new supply is not merely about reducing land supply but involves optimizing the structure under total control, closely aligning with the construction of "good houses" [8][18]. Group 4: Quality Housing Development - The conference calls for the orderly promotion of "good house" construction, which has emerged as a key focus for high-quality development in the real estate sector. This involves not only product upgrades but also a reshaping of the industry value chain [9][19]. - The standard for "good houses" is expected to shift real estate companies from scale expansion to quality cultivation, emphasizing green low-carbon, smart home, and age-friendly design, thereby accelerating transformation and upgrading [10][20]. - The transition in the real estate sector is clear: moving away from high turnover and high leverage models towards a new phase focused on inventory operations and quality-first approaches, which is essential for fostering healthy industry development [10][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, indicating that the task of "stabilizing the market" is ongoing and requires sustained efforts [2][3]. - Policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply will be further implemented in 2026, potentially supported by interest rate cuts [1][3]. - The report highlights the importance of product strength as a core competitive advantage for real estate companies to navigate through market cycles [1]. Summary by Sections Market Stability - The conference reiterates the importance of addressing issues in the real estate market as a key focus for risk mitigation in critical areas [2]. - The transition period for the real estate market is acknowledged, suggesting that stabilization will take time and require ongoing policy support [2]. Inventory Reduction - The conference introduces measures such as city-specific policies to control new supply and reduce inventory, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [3]. - The concept of "inventory reduction" is highlighted as a significant focus, marking its first mention since 2016, and aligns with previous discussions on optimizing housing policies [3]. Housing Fund Reform - The report discusses the deepening of housing provident fund reforms, which aim to enhance the efficiency of fund utilization and lower housing costs [4]. - Over 260 policies related to housing provident funds have been introduced since 2025, focusing on expanding coverage and easing usage conditions [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends real estate stocks with strong credit, location, and product quality, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5]. - Companies with robust operational capabilities that manage cash flow effectively during market adjustments are also highlighted, including Longfor Group and New Town Holdings [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties, are recommended [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages, like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life, are also suggested [5]. Key Company Recommendations - The report lists specific companies with target prices and investment ratings, including: - Wanwu Cloud (Buy, target price 32.29 HKD) [9] - Longfor Group (Buy, target price 15.21 HKD) [9] - Greentown China (Buy, target price 13.69 HKD) [9] - China Overseas Development (Buy, target price 19.08 HKD) [9] - Greentown Service (Buy, target price 6.56 HKD) [9] - Link REIT (Buy, target price 50.59 HKD) [9] - China Resources Land (Buy, target price 36.45 HKD) [9] - New Town Holdings (Buy, target price 18.90 HKD) [9] - China Jinmao (Increase, target price 1.81 HKD) [9]

2026年房地产市场走向备受关注。 其中"制定实施城乡居民增收计划""扩大优质商品和服务供给""清理消费领域不合理限制措施""推动投资止跌回稳""优化地方政府专项债券用途管理""高质 量推进城市更新"等，将从不同维度积极影响房地产市场的发展。 出处：央视新闻 特别是城市更新领域，对比2024年和2025年的工作任务可见，城市更新工作从"大力实施"升维至"高质量推进"。 上海易居房地产研究院（下称易居研究院）认为，此次会议明确高质量推进城市更新，一方面，城市作为经济活动的重要载体和枢纽，其功能完善对促进 生产、分配、流通、消费各环节畅通循环意义重大，能为内需主导的发展格局提供有力支撑；另一方面，基于城市发展的新阶段，要把城市更新作为城市 高质量发展的重要抓手，并将其和社会经济发展、稳楼市等工作进行有力结合。 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议对明年的房地产工作作出明确部署，要求"着力稳定房地产市场"。 2026年房地产工作怎么做？会议提出提振消费、城乡居民增收、高质量推进城市更新、积极稳妥化解风险、深化住房公积金制度改革、构建房地产发展新 模式等重要工作任务，从不同维度为房地产市场健康发展保驾护航 ...

——中央经济工作会议点评 周期/房地产 本次中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调从过去的"更大力度推动房地产市 场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场"。"高质量推进城市更新"、"深化 住房公积金制度改革"、"有序推动'好房子'建设"等表述值得关注，后续或 可关注专项债和专项借款等金融工具进一步支持城市更新，以及住房公积金贷 款利率进一步调降、额度进一步提高和住房公积金用途拓宽等可能性。 住房公积金贷款利率方面，今年 5 月 7 日，《中国人民银行关于下调个人 住房公积金贷款利率的通知》发布。根据《通知》，自 2025 年 5 月 8 日 起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年以下（含 5 年）和 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 li 推荐（维持） 关注城市更新和住房公积金制度改革等的进一步变化 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 257 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2943.0 | 2.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2800.2 | 2.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m ...