Core Insights - The World Bank forecasts a faster global economic growth than previously expected, driven partly by a surge in U.S. investments in artificial intelligence [1] - Despite the positive outlook, the global economy is projected to experience its weakest decade in half a century [1] Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised upward from 1.6% to 2.2% [1] - The global economic growth rate for 2025 has been adjusted from 2.3% to 2.7%, slightly below the expected level for 2024 [1] - The growth rate for 2026 is anticipated to slow to 2.6%, still above the previous forecast of 2.4% [1] Risks and Opportunities - The World Bank warns that further tariff increases, significant stock market declines, or surging government bond yields due to debt concerns could lead to lower-than-expected growth [1] - Conversely, if the investment boom in artificial intelligence continues to expand, growth could exceed current projections [1]

Group 1 - The World Bank has raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% made in June [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been significantly increased from 1.6% to 2.2% [1] - The global growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.7%, driven by three main factors: preemptive stockpiling by businesses and households before the implementation of tariffs, the actual economic suppression effect of high tariffs being weaker than expected, and sustained spending in the information and technology sectors providing structural support for growth [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, Ayhan Kose, noted that global growth is trapped within a specific range, showing resilience but failing to accelerate [2] - Since 2023, actual GDP growth has fluctuated between 2.6% and 2.8%, contrasting sharply with the average growth rate of 3.2% during the decade before the pandemic (2010-2019) [2] - The World Bank's report indicates that global inflation is expected to slightly decrease to 2.6% in 2026, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than previous expectations [2] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 per barrel in 2026 [3] Group 4 - In the next decade, 1.2 billion young people in emerging markets will reach working age, making job creation a pressing priority [4]

Group 1 - The World Bank has raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% made in June, highlighting unexpected resilience despite escalating trade tensions [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been significantly increased from 1.6% to 2.2%, indicating a strong recovery [1] - The global growth forecast for 2025 is estimated at 2.7%, driven by three main factors: preemptive stockpiling by businesses and households before the implementation of tariffs, the actual economic suppression effect of high tariffs being weaker than expected, and sustained spending in the information and technology sectors providing structural support [1] Group 2 - The World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, Ayhan Kose, noted that global growth is trapped in a specific range, with actual GDP growth fluctuating between 2.6% and 2.8% since 2023, contrasting sharply with the pre-pandemic average growth rate of 3.2% from 2010 to 2019 [2] - The World Bank has followed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in raising its growth forecast for 2025, with the IMF also warning of potential downward pressures on future growth [2] - The report indicates that while global economic resilience is significant, risks remain tilted towards the downside, particularly due to the potential for renewed trade tensions and higher tariffs redirecting exports [2] Group 3 - China's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been raised to 4.9% and to 4.4% for 2026, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [2] - The global inflation rate is expected to slightly decrease to 2.6% in 2026, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than previous expectations [3] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to decline from an average of $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 in 2026 [4] Group 4 - In the next decade, 1.2 billion young people in emerging markets will reach working age, making job creation a pressing priority [5]

世界银行呼吁各国政府调整政策，加大对科技和教育的投资，以促进可持续发展。 （文章来源：新华社） 报告警告，随着美国关税政策影响逐渐显现，2026年全球贸易增长将显著放缓，其带来的经济下行风险 仍然存在。 新华财经纽约1月13日电（记者徐静） 世界银行13日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2026年全 球经济增长预期上调至2.6%，比2025年6月预测值高出0.2个百分点。 报告指出，尽管面临贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性加剧，过去一年全球经济在人工智能投资大增等因素 影响下仍展现出韧性。但与此同时，全球生活水平差距正在扩大，富裕国家与贫困国家之间日益扩大的 生活水平差距令人担忧。2020年至2030年"或将成为20世纪60年代以来全球经济增长最疲软的十年"。 ...

Core Insights - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the June 2025 prediction [1] - Despite facing trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty, the global economy has shown resilience over the past year, largely due to a significant increase in artificial intelligence investments [1] - The report highlights a growing disparity in living standards between wealthy and poor countries, raising concerns about the widening gap [1] - The period from 2020 to 2030 is projected to be the weakest decade for global economic growth since the 1960s [1] - The World Bank warns of a significant slowdown in global trade growth by 2026, as the effects of U.S. tariff policies become more pronounced, posing ongoing economic downside risks [1] - The World Bank urges governments to adjust policies and increase investments in technology and education to promote sustainable development [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank has raised its global economic growth forecast for the year, highlighting unexpected resilience in the global economy despite a "historic" escalation in global trade tensions [1] - The institution noted that the resilience of the world economy is "significant," but risks remain skewed to the downside, with a substantial risk of renewed trade tensions [1] Economic Predictions - The report includes forecasts for Brent crude oil prices through 2026 [1]

钛媒体App 1月9日消息，高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍 预期的2.6%。美国经济表现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减 弱、减税政策以及更为宽松的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期 4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐 观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。（广角观察） ...

来源：金融界AI电报 高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。美国经济表 现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减弱、减税政策以及更为宽松 的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消 国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期 1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 09 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 每日报告 二、贵金属市场相关图表 2025 年 12 月美国 ADP 私人就业增加 4.1 万，这为美联储再次暂停降息进程 提供依据，美元指数持续反弹至 98.8 附近；金银价格在前高附近遇阻后连续第二 天调整，因美元指数反弹、委内瑞拉局势恶化的避险需求边际减退，且市场关注 将于周五公布的非农就业报告的方向指示。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底的回调已经 充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、美联储宽松 货币政策、全球 ...

Core Insights - The UN's report on the global economic outlook for 2026 indicates resilience in the global economy amidst complex challenges, but highlights ongoing issues such as trade tensions, fiscal pressures, and rising uncertainty affecting medium to long-term growth prospects [1] - The projected global economic growth rate for 2026 is 2.7%, slightly lower than the 2.8% forecast for 2025 [1] - Despite a resilient global trade performance in 2025, the report anticipates a slowdown in global trade growth in 2026 due to rising tariffs and increased policy uncertainty [1] Economic Conditions - The global economy managed to withstand the impact of significant tariff increases by the US in 2025, supported by falling inflation and stable consumption [1] - However, persistent issues such as weak investment and limited fiscal space remain prominent, posing risks for long-term economic growth [1] Trade and Investment - Global trade maintained resilience in 2025, but is expected to slow down in 2026 due to rising tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty [1] - Investment activities continue to be constrained by geopolitical risks and fiscal pressures, contributing to a weak investment environment [1] Inflation and Policy Coordination - Global inflation levels are on a downward trend, yet high prices continue to erode real income for residents [1] - The UN emphasizes the need for countries to enhance coordination among monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies to stabilize prices while ensuring social welfare and long-term growth [1] Multilateral Cooperation - UN Secretary-General Guterres stresses the importance of strengthening multilateral cooperation and maintaining a rules-based multilateral trading system to stabilize the global economy and promote sustainable development [1]