Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the fragmentation of global trade has a negative impact on global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation of global trade is identified as a significant issue affecting economic performance [1] - Bailey emphasized the importance of cohesive trade relationships for sustaining economic growth [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding the implications of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions on the economy [1]

报告说，最新预测是基于截至今年5月中旬的关税水平将维持的技术假设。增长放缓较为显著的包括美 国、加拿大和墨西哥等经济体。2025年和2026年，美国经济预计将增长1.6%和1.5%，较今年3月预测值 分别下调0.6和0.1个百分点；欧元区经济预计将增长1.0%和1.2%，与3月预测值相同。 经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）3日发布最新一期经济展望报告，预计2025年和2026年全球经济增速 均为2.9%，较今年3月预测值分别下调0.2和0.1个百分点。 经合组织今年3月发布中期经济展望报告，当时预计2025年和2026年全球经济将增长3.1%和3.0%，较 2024年12月预测值分别下调0.2和0.3个百分点。 报告指出，过去几个月，贸易壁垒以及经济和贸易政策的不确定性显著增加，对商业和消费者信心产生 负面影响并阻碍贸易和投资。这种充满挑战性和不确定性的国际经贸环境促使经合组织再次下调今明两 年全球经济增长预期。 报告预计，二十国集团国家总体通胀率将从2024年的6.2%降至2025年的3.6%和2026年的3.2%。但美国 是一个"例外"，其2025年和2026年总体通胀率预计为3.2%和2.8%，较今年3月 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the contradictory nature of U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. extends tariff exemptions for certain Chinese products while simultaneously discussing tax increases [1][2] - This behavior is not new and has been observed across multiple U.S. administrations, indicating a need to balance domestic political pressures with economic realities [2] - The article suggests that the decline of dollar hegemony is a symptom of these contradictions in trade policy [2] Group 2 - A new global economic landscape is emerging, characterized by a significant slowdown in GDP growth, with global GDP growth dropping below 2% and developed European countries around 1% [2] - The focus on domestic demand and consumption in economic reports reflects a necessary shift in the global growth model, emphasizing that investment can also drive demand [3] Group 3 - Current market conditions are described as a "slow bull market," where funds are taking time to find opportunities, leading to a cautious approach among investors [3] - Retail investors are warned against two common mistakes: losing patience and making erratic trades or holding onto poorly performing stocks [3] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding trading behavior data, as it reveals the true market dynamics beyond mere price movements [5][7] - It points out that having institutional ownership does not guarantee safety; the key is whether institutions are actively trading [7][11] Group 5 - The changing global economic landscape is reshaping the logic of A-shares, necessitating that ordinary investors utilize professional tools to discern market realities [11] - The article concludes that opportunities exist in the market, but the ability to identify them is crucial [11]

金十数据5月29日讯，油价上涨，但回吐了盘中早些时候的部分涨幅。周三美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗 普总统的全面"解放日"关税不合法后，布伦特原油早盘一度攀升至65.50美元的高位。这一裁决提振了 市场的风险偏好情绪，缓解了对全球经济增长放缓的担忧。白宫表示将对该裁决提出上诉。此外，美国 可能对俄罗斯实施新制裁，威胁减少石油出口，这也推动油价小幅走高。不过，欧佩克+可能在7月增 产的预期在一定程度上抵消了这一影响。 美法院裁定关税非法推升油价后回落 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 孙迟悦 香港报道 在近期经济数据方面，汪涛指出，4月份中国的出口数据仍显示出较强的韧性，关税对出口的负面影响 尚未明显显现。尽管制造业采购经理指数（PMI）中的新出口订单指数有所下降，但出口数据尚未显示 出明显下滑。此外，中国对美国的出口下降了20%，但对东盟国家的出口则增长了20%。 根据国家统计局官方数据，4月，中国制造业采购经理指数为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，受前期 制造业较快增长形成较高基数、外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，制造业PMI回落至临界点以下；非制造 业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。 5月21日，在瑞银"关税到政策工具"分享会上，瑞银亚洲经济研究主管及首席中国经济学家汪涛表示， 目前美国对中国的关税仍将保持在较高水平，并将持续一段时间。 汪涛进一步表示，中国政府将持续推出额外的政策和措施，以支持国内消费、地方政府财政和基础设施 融资；预计这些政策措施的规模将相当于GDP的0.5%到1%。 上调全球经济增长预测至2.7% 瑞银投资银行全球首席经济及策略研究主管Arend Kapteyn指出，过去六至八周美国的关税 ...

欧洲央行管委艾斯克里瓦：地缘政治、贸易紧张局势和美国政府政策的不可预测性决定了全球环境。所 有这些因素都对全球经济增长前景产生决定性影响，对金融体系的稳定构成风险。一些情况表明，更高 的关税将主要影响美国，欧元区和西班牙的影响较小。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The comments from European Central Bank Governing Council member Escrivá highlight that various factors are critically influencing the global economic growth outlook and pose risks to the stability of the financial system [1] Group 1 - The global economic growth outlook is significantly affected by multiple factors [1] - Financial system stability is at risk due to these influencing factors [1]

澳洲联储：全球贸易战对经济构成重大下行风险 金十数据5月20日讯，澳洲联储周二表示，由于受全球贸易紧张局势的连带影响，通胀率将下降，而失 业率将上升，即使假设降息幅度达到市场预期。澳洲联储在周二发布的季度货币政策声明中称，核心通 胀的降温速度略快于预期，服务业明显放缓。该央行还警告称，美国总统特朗普关税政策将拖低全球经 济增长率，并且总体上有助降低澳洲通胀率。 ...

澳洲联储：若贸易紧张局势迅速缓解，全球经济增长可能加快，国内降息幅度或将减少。 ...