持仓格局生变 中英日上演三国杀 美国财政部最新TIC报告揭开全球资本流动暗涌：2025年3月，中国单月减持189亿美元美债至7654亿美 元，让出"美国第二大债主"席位；日本则增持49亿美元至1.13万亿美元稳居榜首，英国趁机补位第二。 值得注意的是，此次调仓正值美债收益率突破4.5%关键点位前夕，折射出全球投资者对美元资产的重 估。 高盛集团最新预测加剧市场焦虑——该行将10年期美债收益率预期上调50个基点至4.5%，2年期收益率 预期调高至3.9%。东吴证券芦哲指出，当前美国债务/GDP比率已达97.8%，"这个全球最大灰犀牛正加 速冲向107.2%的历史峰值"。 "这不是简单的头寸调整，而是全球货币体系重构的前兆。"某中资大行交易主管透露，部分央行正将减 持美债获得的流动性转化为黄金储备，3月全球官方黄金购买量同比激增63%。 三重绞索勒紧美债市场 1. 货币预期逆转：美联储降息时点推迟至12月，4.9%的30年期美债收益率创年内新高 2. 供需严重失衡：6月偿债高峰叠加美联储缩表，特朗普减税法案或新增3.7万亿赤字 3. 信任危机发酵：36.21万亿美元联邦债务压顶，海外持有占比持续下滑至26.8% ...

美元是全球化的受益者 美元和美国国债都属于美国政府的债务，背后都是靠美国政府的信用做背书，美元能够成为国际货币是基于其他经济体对美国政 府的信任。我们在《全球货币变局》系列专题一中就介绍过货币的本质，美元纸币的本质就是一张纸，其它经济体之所以接受美 国人拿着一张纸来买自己的商品，其实是基于对美国政府的信任，相信美国政府可以保证美元纸币的购买能力。在这个过程中， 美国人拿着一张纸换走了别的经济体的劳动成果，美元纸币就相当于美国政府发行的债券。所以从这个角度来看，美元和美国国 债都是属于美国政府的债务，而债务是建立在信任或信用的基础上的。在过去几十年，美元之所以能成为国际货币，是基于其他 经济体对美国政府的信任，尤其是相信美国政府能够保证美国经济长期稳定的能力，因为如果经济不稳定，美国政府也会超发美 元来稳经济，美元汇率就会贬值。 在各国之间信任度偏低的时代，大家很难接受别的国家印刷的纸币来购买自己的商品。例如在二战之前的人类历史上，各国之间 没有那么强的信任的情况下，国际贸易的支付结算、官方储备配置更多依赖的是贵金属。虽然在美元之前也有英镑、荷兰盾、西 班牙的银元，但这些所谓的国际货币，其实国际化程度并没有那么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in gold prices driven by rising global market panic and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold reaching historical highs. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On April 11, spot gold prices surpassed $3,200 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while COMEX gold futures touched $3,240 per ounce [2] - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with multiple ETFs rising over 3%, and gold stock ETFs increasing by more than 9% [3][4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices are approaching 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases in prices over a short period [8][11] Group 2: Institutional Predictions - Institutions have raised their gold price forecasts significantly, with Citigroup predicting prices could reach $3,500 per ounce by year-end due to increased demand amid fears of U.S. economic downturns [15] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2025 gold price forecast from $3,100 to $3,300 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and ongoing central bank demand [15] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also revised their predictions, with Bank of America suggesting a potential target of $3,500 per ounce if investment demand increases by 10% [15][16] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7,370 million ounces as of the end of March, marking the fifth consecutive month of gold accumulation [17] - This trend indicates a significant signal regarding the global monetary system's restructuring amid U.S.-China tensions, with gold remaining a critical asset for central banks [17] Group 4: Market Risks - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a warning regarding market risks due to the volatility in precious metal prices, urging investors to manage their positions carefully [20][21]

Core Insights - The surge in international gold prices since March 2025 reflects deeper shifts in the global economic order rather than just traditional safe-haven logic [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions, and recession expectations, but these short-term factors do not fully explain the sustained increase in gold prices [1] Group 1: Structural Changes in the Global Monetary System - The structural collapse of dollar credit is highlighted by the U.S. national debt exceeding $40 trillion, raising concerns about the stability of dollar assets [3] - Major Asian central banks are planning to increase their gold reserves from 8% to 20%-30%, indicating a decline in trust towards the dollar [3] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, with expectations to reach 1,300 tons in 2025 [4] - This shift in strategy from "risk diversification" to "actively building a non-dollar reserve system" signifies a return of gold's monetary attributes [4] Group 3: Transformation of Gold's Financial Attributes - Gold is regaining its function as a "non-sovereign credit medium," with its ability to hedge against inflation and economic contraction being emphasized [5] - The World Gold Council reports a 35% year-on-year increase in individual investors' allocation to gold ETFs in 2025, showcasing gold's potential as a "digital asset safe haven" [5] Group 4: Challenges to Gold's Monetary Anchor Status - The expansion of gold ETFs has increased trading convenience but also led to greater price volatility, undermining its stability as a store of value [7] - Central banks may intervene in the market by selling gold, creating a policy-market dynamic that could affect gold prices [7] Group 5: Future Outlook for Gold - Predictions suggest that gold's monetization process may evolve in three phases: short-term price stabilization between $3,300 and $3,800, mid-term increases in central bank gold reserves, and long-term potential for gold to serve as a common currency in a multipolar monetary system [8] - The rise in gold prices is seen as part of a silent monetary revolution, with gold transitioning from a "last resort" to a commanding role in global value storage [10]