Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The progress of Sino-US trade is better than expected, boosting market demand. The European route is starting to return to the mid-year peak season price increase logic. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The short - term market may continue to game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. - From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", and the freight rates of most long - haul routes increased. However, the future economic recovery prospects in Europe and the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects still face uncertainties [9]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, which is an important step in resolving differences through dialogue and lays the foundation for further cooperation. Both sides agreed on multiple positive consensuses and measures such as tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: Sino - US trade progress boosts market demand. Airlines are raising freight rates for the end of May and June. The price in late May has a small increase, and the price in early June has a significant increase of up to 100%, but the actual implementation needs to be observed. The short - term market may game on the price increase expectation, and attention should be paid to Maersk's later pricing for June quotes [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From May 12th to 16th, the China Export Container Transport Market was supported by positive news of the "tariff war", the transport demand recovered, and the comprehensive index increased [9]. - **European Route**: The ZEW economic sentiment index in the eurozone in May was better than expected, but the US - Europe trade negotiation prospects are unclear, and the freight rate decreased slightly [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation is similar to the European route, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly [9]. - **North American Route**: After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the transport demand recovered significantly, the cabin supply was tight, and the spot market booking price increased significantly [9][10]. - **Sino - US Talks**: The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a joint statement, with both sides agreeing on tariff adjustments and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [10]. 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **SCFIS**: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.9% from May 12th to May 19th, and the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 0.6% [13]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as the trends of the main and sub - main contracts of container shipping European route futures are presented [18]. 3.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - No specific text summary information provided, but relevant charts such as global container capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates are presented [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc. has experienced a significant recovery in its stock price, closing just above $205, marking a nearly 30% increase since its April low, driven by improving U.S.-China trade relations which directly impact its business model [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - The stock is trading near its highest levels since February, regaining its leadership position in the market, with analysts suggesting that May may be the last opportunity to purchase shares around the $200 level [2]. - The recent rebound was largely triggered by the U.S. and China agreeing to temporarily revise certain tariffs, benefiting Amazon significantly, which saw a nearly 10% jump in a single session [2][3]. - Analysts have issued bullish reports on Amazon, with a 12-month stock price forecast averaging $244.09, indicating a potential upside of 19.13% from the current price [6]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policy - Amazon is highly exposed to trade policy, with tariffs on Chinese imports raising costs across its e-commerce platform, affecting both its retail operations and third-party sellers, who account for approximately 60% of sales [3]. - The easing of trade tensions provides Amazon with a near-term margin boost and longer-term stability, alleviating one of the major concerns affecting the stock [5]. Group 3: Analyst Sentiment and Forecasts - Analysts are optimistic about Amazon's potential, citing improving macro conditions, its leadership in cloud and advertising, and ongoing cost discipline as key drivers of this sentiment [7]. - Recent earnings reports have confirmed margin expansion in critical areas, with consumer demand remaining strong, making the investment setup increasingly attractive [8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, Amazon's stock chart appears strong, with bullish indicators such as the MACD configuration and an RSI around 60, suggesting further gains are possible [9]. - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with increased volume on up days, indicating positive momentum [9]. Group 5: Market Trends - Broader market trends are supportive of Amazon's recovery, with the S&P 500 steadily recovering and a renewed risk appetite for growth stocks, particularly those with proven earnings power [10]. - The current market environment, combined with the lifting of trade overhangs, presents a strong upside case for Amazon, with price targets clustering around $300 [12].

Group 1 - The US and UK have reached a tariff agreement covering automobiles, steel, and agricultural products, allowing the UK to reduce tariffs on exports to the US [1] - UK tariffs on car exports to the US will decrease from 27.5% to 10%, and steel and aluminum tariffs will drop from 25% to zero, applicable to 100,000 UK cars, nearly covering last year's total exports [1] - In exchange, the UK will open its markets further for US products, providing $5 billion in export opportunities for the US and planning to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [1] Group 2 - South Korea is studying the US-UK trade agreement to find negotiation breakthroughs, particularly focusing on the automotive sector, which accounted for $34.2 billion in exports to the US in 2024, making up 26.8% of total exports [2] - Experts suggest South Korea could adopt a "conditional reciprocity" approach to achieve tariff reductions, leveraging US cooperation needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects [2] - The Korean government is exploring the possibility of a low tariff quota mechanism to secure a 10% preferential tariff for its automobiles [2] Group 3 - South Korea faces significant negotiation challenges, with projected car exports to the US reaching 1.43 million units in 2024, compared to the UK's 100,000 units [3] - The US may demand more concessions from South Korea in agricultural imports, digital trade, and other non-tariff barriers, aiming to maintain a 10% basic tariff while reducing trade deficits [3] - The Korean government aims to balance interests across multiple areas to maximize national benefits in negotiations, with plans to monitor US negotiation strategies and finalize their approach after the new government takes office [3]

导 语 ：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。但90天结束后会发生什么？ 巴罗卡斯（Barrocas）立即指示中国的工厂释放运往美国的货物，包括咖啡机和"Ninja Slushie"冰沙 机（一种冷饮制作机）。巴罗卡斯表示："在关税生效时，我们有数百个集装箱准备离开中国。现 在，我们终于可以把它们装上船。" SharkNinja首席执行官马克·巴罗卡斯（Mark Barrocas）在周日晚上执着地刷着新闻动态，寻找中美 两国是否会达成关税协议的任何迹象。 周一清晨，消息传来：美国将在90天内将关税从145%降至30%。 美国各地依赖中国进口的企业已经陷入困境数周，试图摸索如何应对特朗普总统（President Trump）在四月份对中国商品施加的高额关税。各家公司纷纷通过涨价、削减开支和裁员等方式努 力应对关税带来的额外成本。 如今，这场停战可能打破两国间事实上的贸易禁运。周一，美国股市大涨，美元攀升，投资者削减 了对美联储降息的押注。 许多公司表示，他们将迅速把货物装上前往美国港口的船只。 詹妮弗·伯奇（Jennifer Burch），Hightail Hair的联合创始人，从她的丈夫兼联合创始人乔 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 05 13 年 月 日 宏观点评 "东升"再强化—中美经贸会谈大超预期的 4 点理解 事件：5 月 12 日 15：00，中美发布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，大幅降 低双边关税水平，并建立机制、继续就经贸关系进行协商。 核心观点：中美首轮经贸会谈取得实质性进展、大超市场预期，这将为 世界经济注入更多确定性和稳定性，进一步凸显了中国制造的不可替 代性，也将进一步提升中国资产的投资价值。测算发现，最新美国对中 国的综合关税税率下降至 42.5%（2018 年以来 10.9%基础关税+20% 芬太尼关税+带豁免的 10%全球对等关税+25%的特定行业关税），预 计拖累我国出口 4.0-5.2 个百分点，拖累我国 GDP 0.5-0.7 个百分点， 指向我国经济下行压力仍大，预示不会改变我国扩张性政策的大方向， 尤其是全力扩内需、大力中央加杠杆，我们也继续提示"不宜等到花儿 枯萎了再浇水"。往后看，中美关税不确定性仍大，重点关注 3 大方面： 1）中美谈判进展，不排除出现关税反复的可能性；2）中美谈判议题， 可能主要针对关税和非关税壁垒、贸易再平衡、经济安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a calm and patient attitude in the face of ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, advocating for a pragmatic approach to negotiations and mutual understanding [2][28]. Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs imposed on Chinese goods and modifying a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [5]. - China reciprocates by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs on U.S. goods and suspending 24% of the 34% counter-tariff for 90 days, keeping 10% intact [5][9]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, A-shares surged, recovering losses from the previous month, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98% [31][36]. - U.S. markets also reacted positively, with the Nasdaq rising by 4.11% and companies like Amazon and Apple seeing significant stock price increases [34]. Economic Implications - The trade agreement is expected to create a busy export-import window for both countries in the next 90 days, coinciding with major U.S. shopping seasons [47]. - Concerns remain about the long-term implications of tariffs, particularly the potential for a 20% tariff on fentanyl-related products, which may require further negotiations [42]. Strategic Insights - The article suggests that the current negotiation phase presents an opportunity for China to strengthen trade ties with other economies, such as the EU and Japan, to enhance economic interdependence [54][55]. - Companies are encouraged to build resilience in their operations, focusing on global supply chain management and digital strategies to adapt to future uncertainties [58][60].

Core Viewpoint - The recent 90-day tariff reduction agreement between the US and China has prompted American companies to quickly restart their supply chains with Chinese manufacturers, potentially leading to increased shipping congestion and rising costs [1]. Group 1: Impact on Shipping and Supply Chains - American companies are attempting to stockpile products during the 90-day window to prepare for potential tariff increases afterward [2]. - The previous tariffs had significantly reduced shipping demand, with reports indicating a decrease in shipping frequency from once a week to twice a month for certain routes [2]. - There is an expectation of increased shipping activity as companies rush to ship products that were previously held up in Chinese warehouses [2][3]. Group 2: Company Responses - Health product manufacturer Therabody has resumed production in China and is accelerating output, with its CEO expressing satisfaction despite a 30% increase in costs [2]. - Bogg Bag has reversed its earlier price increase decision and is resuming production, while also planning to cut its product line by 45 items to avoid rushed production [3]. - Net Health Shops LLC is considering shipping previously paused containers from China, anticipating that the tariff reduction will help alleviate supply shortages [3].

Group 1 - Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) stock is experiencing a significant rally, up 7.6% to $74.09, following the U.S. and China agreement to suspend most tariffs, providing relief for retailers reliant on Chinese imports [1] - The surge in Best Buy's stock has led to a notable increase in call options trading, with over 12,000 bullish bets placed, which is seven times the average intraday volume, particularly in the May 75 call options [2] - Despite the recent surge, Best Buy's stock remains down 13.4% year-to-date in 2025, although it has regained levels above $72, which previously acted as support before the tariff rollout in April [3]

Group 1: Trade and Export - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have provided positive signals regarding tariff adjustments, which could lower export costs for Chinese manufacturing, enhancing price competitiveness in the US market [1] - If tariffs are reduced, Chinese manufacturing products may see a significant increase in order volumes, benefiting small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises by improving profit margins and overall business environment [1] - Despite the positive developments, foreign trade enterprises should remain cautious due to the historical tendency of the US to engage in "talk and hit" tactics, indicating potential policy reversals in the future [1] Group 2: Cross-Border E-commerce - The easing of tariffs is expected to lower operational costs for cross-border e-commerce companies, thereby increasing the competitiveness of their products in the US market and attracting more American consumers [3] - Enhanced cooperation in supply chain frameworks, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and digital economy, will provide cross-border e-commerce firms with better access to quality sources and a wider variety of products [3] - Challenges remain for cross-border e-commerce, including ongoing technology restrictions from the US, which may hinder innovation and product upgrades, necessitating a focus on brand building and customer service [3] Group 3: International Logistics - The improvement in US-China trade relations is anticipated to significantly boost demand for international logistics services, reversing the decline in cargo transport volumes caused by previous trade frictions [5] - Increased container shipping volumes on US-China routes and higher port throughput are expected to create more business opportunities for international logistics companies [5] - International logistics firms must remain vigilant regarding potential execution challenges, such as complex customs processes and delays in policy implementation, while also adapting to changes in global supply chain dynamics [6]

日经225指数收盘上涨0.38%，至37644.26点，而覆盖面更广的东证指数上涨0.31%，至2,742.08点；当天，韩国综合 股价指数上升1.17%，以2607.33收盘，Kosdaq指数上升0.4%，以725.40收盘；在澳大利亚，标准普尔／ASX 200指 数收窄涨幅，持平于8,233.50点。 与此同时，ICE美元指数也大幅上涨。衡量美元兑一篮子全球货币的该指数最后上涨1.3%，至101.63。此外，泛欧 斯托克600指数早盘上涨0.7%。油价也大幅上涨。7月到期的国际基准布伦特原油期货上涨2.3%，至每桶65.38美 元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨2.4%，报每桶62.49美元。 债券方面，欧债全线下跌，中期债券遭投资者抛售，其中2年期德债收益率飙升11.6BPs至1.906%，2年期意债收益 率升7.8BPs至2.147%，2年期法债收益率大涨10.9BPs至2.058%；长债方面，10年期德债收益率上行7.8BPs至 2.631%，10年期意债收益率升6.6BPs至3.678%，10年期法债收益率升6.5BPs至3.321%。 | SYMBOL # | YIELD $ | CHANGE ...