Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The US has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of tariffs from two specific executive orders set to be eliminated[2] - A 34% tariff on certain goods will see a 90-day suspension for 24% of it, while 10% will remain in effect[2] - This agreement marks a clear turning point in the US-China trade tensions, indicating a potential easing of the tariff war[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The US economy is experiencing a short-term boost in domestic demand, despite a cooling GDP growth rate of 1.7 percentage points due to increased imports[3] - The current tariff adjustments are seen as a strategy to buy time for restructuring the US domestic supply chain, rather than a permanent shift in trade policy[3] - China's exports are expected to benefit from the reduced tariff intensity, with April exports showing a strong year-on-year increase of 8.1%[3] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Following the trade talks, both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan experienced a rare simultaneous appreciation, with the dollar index rising by over 1% and the yuan strengthening by nearly 0.5% to around 7.21[3] - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to enhance the activity of China's external production chains and provide more space for key exports to the US[3] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - Despite the current easing, the long-term strategic intent of the US to reshape global supply chains remains, indicating that tariff fluctuations may continue[3] - It is recommended that China leverage the current favorable conditions to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic consumption, preparing for potential future changes in the tariff environment[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [1] - Coke: Oscillating in the short - term [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic market's risk appetite is expected to rise due to the release of goodwill signals in tariff negotiations, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is expected to be compensated [3]. - The coal - coke industry has different situations. For coking coal, the spot is under pressure, and the upstream inventory pressure is high. After the delivery game of the 05 contract ends, it will return to trading based on supply - demand expectations. For coke, the second round of spot price increase faces obstacles, but there is support for demand. In the context of the expected policy of reducing crude steel production this year, the steel industry's performance is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of the industrial chain's profits [4]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply shows a narrow - range oscillation. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.9% (- 0.8), showing a slight decline. The demand continues to rise. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.41% (+ 0.42) [1]. Inventory - Upstream mines are accumulating inventory, with the refined coal inventory of 523 mines at 333.34 million tons (- 2.17) and the raw coal inventory at 516.78 million tons (+ 12.28). The refined coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 181.33 million tons (- 11.63). Downstream, the inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.23 million tons (+ 4.6), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 829.86 million tons (+ 15.14). The port inventory is 337.38 million tons (- 11.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1040 yuan/ton (- 0), and the price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1380 yuan/ton (- 0). The September contract is reported at 956 yuan/ton (- 6.5). The basis is 104 yuan/ton (+ 6.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 63.5 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The supply increases, with the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises at 73.41% (+ 0.42). The demand reaches its peak. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.15% (- 0.04), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4012 million tons (- 0.1) [2]. Inventory - The middle - and upper - reaches are accumulating inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.96 million tons (+ 2.06), and the port inventory is 246.1 million tons (+ 13.01). The downstream is reducing inventory, with the inventory of 247 steel mills at 664.4 million tons (- 3.59) [2]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (+ 0). After the first - round price increase is implemented, there is an expectation of a second - round increase. The September contract is reported at 1590.5 yuan/ton (- 4.5). The basis is - 40.28 yuan/ton (+ 4.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 1.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [2].

具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以六福为例，今日黄金饰品价格小跌，铂金饰品报价402元/克，微跌1 元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢迎在评论区留言告知，小金将及时收集整理并为您更新。 黄金回收市场走势与金店金价走势一样，今日金店黄金回收价格下跌6.3元/克。同时，每个品牌的回收价格也不一样，小金 大致整理了几个，详见下表，数据仅供参考： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年4月27日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 780. 00 | 元/克 | | 菜直黄金 | 777.70 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 775.30 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 779.70 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 785.30 | 元/克 | 说完实物黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 4月27日国内金价快报：各大金店价格有所下跌，跌幅不是很大，在10元/克左右。周大福等金店虽有下跌，价格还是最高的 那一批，最新标价1028元/克。菜百黄金也是出现下跌，目前暂报10 ...