新党"中道改革联合"主张坚持无核三原则,推行务实的外交与防卫政策。日媒披露,高市正企图在修订 《国家安全保障战略》等"安保三文件"时,修改无核三原则中的不引进核武器原则,引发日本国内强烈担 忧。"中道改革联合"的这一主张,直指高市政权引发最大争议的"爆点"。 日本首相高市早苗23日宣布解散众议院,定于2月8日举行大选。高市表示,若自民党与日本维新会组成的 执政联盟未赢得过半数议席,她将辞去首相职务。分析人士认为,高市这场"豪赌"的主要目的是想借当前 较高支持率重新成为多数派执政党,彻底摆脱在野党在国会的掣肘。表面来看,高市的胜算很大,但立宪民 主党与公明党组建新党"中道改革联合"投入选战,无疑会搅乱既有格局,为选举带来很大变数。 主笔 赵世峰 在野党针锋相对 23日原本是日本国会例会开幕的日子。按照惯例,国会例会的一项重要议程是在4月1日新财年开始前审 议并通过预算案。高市此时解散众议院,审议预算案的正常程序将被大幅拖延,给日本政治和民生带来不 确定性,引发在野党和部分媒体批评,指责其"只顾党派私利、滥用解散权"。就连极右翼的参政党干事长 安藤裕也表示,"此时解散(众议院)极为罕见,政府无视预算与经济风险的做 ...

Economic Outlook - The World Bank's latest report projects South Africa's economic growth to reach 1.3% in 2025, a significant increase from 0.6% in 2024, with growth rates of 1.4% and 1.5% expected in 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - Key drivers of this growth include improvements in electricity supply, agricultural yields, and a rebound in business confidence [1] Regional Economic Context - The overall economic growth for Sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 4% in 2025, accelerating to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, although still below historical averages [1] - Nigeria is expected to lead the region with a growth rate of 4.2%, while Ethiopia's growth is forecasted to slow from 8.1% in 2024 to 7.2% [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite a decrease in global food and energy prices easing overall inflation pressures in the region, core inflation has risen for the first time in two years, leading some central banks to pause interest rate cuts [1] - The South African Reserve Bank is anticipated to continue its accommodative monetary policy due to a further decline in fourth-quarter inflation expectations [1] Trade Risks - South Africa faces high global trade risks, particularly due to its reliance on exports to the U.S. market, making it vulnerable to trade fragmentation impacts [1] - The expiration of the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) at the end of 2025 poses a significant threat to certain economies unless extended [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill to extend AGOA until the end of 2028, but there are concerns regarding the interpretation of clauses related to South Africa's eligibility, which may lead to revisions [2] - South African export sectors, including automotive, citrus, and wine, are worried about the implications of a 30% "reciprocal" tariff imposed on key export products by the U.S. [2]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to a historic high of $100, marking a 40% increase year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold [1] - The primary driver of this price increase is the industrial demand for silver, which is expected to grow due to sectors like photovoltaics, AI, and electric vehicles [1] - The global silver market has been in a structural deficit for five consecutive years, with physical inventories rapidly depleting [1] Group 2 - Speculative trading has emerged as a major driver of the recent silver price increase, although its sustainability is questioned [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest that silver may experience high volatility and fluctuations, influenced by ongoing geopolitical issues [2] - Long-term predictions indicate that silver prices could reach $200 by 2026, with expectations of significant increases in gold prices as well [2]

中证500ETF泰康(515530)紧密跟踪中证小盘500指数，中证系列规模指数分别反映沪深市场不同市值规 模上市公司证券的整体表现。 相关产品： 中证500ETF泰康(515530)，场外联接(A类：011964；C类：011965)，相关指数基金(A类：018116；C 类：018117)。 截至2026年1月23日 13:10，中证500ETF泰康(515530)上涨1.65%，冲击3连涨。跟踪指数中证小盘500指 数(000905)强势上涨1.71%，成分股捷佳伟创上涨20.00%，迈为股份上涨20.00%，睿创微纳上涨 20.00%，信科移动，天合光能等个股跟涨。 消息面上，央行行长日前表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多 种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。要继续维护好金融市场的平稳运 行。做好预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券市场、外汇市场、货币市 场、票据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好 支持资本市场的两项货币政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。 招商证券认为，往 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-01-23 关注宽松货币政策推进 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）SpaceX计划于2027年推出其第二代星链系统，旨在提供更高速的网络服务。二代星链系统预计将提 供类似5G的连接服务，整体容量将比一代提高100多倍，吞吐量提升20倍以上。根据现有进展，美国联邦通信委员 会（FCC）本月已批准SpaceX的申请，允许其再部署7500颗第二代星链卫星，以进一步提升其全球互联网服务能 力。 服务行业：1）中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜接受记者采访时表示，2026年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适 度宽松的货币政策，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥增量政策和存量政策集 成效应。总量政策方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币 供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。2）据央行官网，为保持银 行体系流动性充裕，2026年1月23日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展9000亿元 MLF操作，期限为1年期。这意味着1月MLF续作加量7000亿，净投放规模显著加大。此外，本月两 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the release of positive signals regarding macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and enhancing domestic demand, particularly through fiscal measures and strategic planning for the years 2026 to 2030 [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, focusing on high-tech industries and urban-rural income growth [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance indicated that in 2026, there will be an increase in fiscal spending to ensure necessary expenditure levels, with a commitment to maintain overall spending intensity [1][2] Group 2 - The target GDP growth rate for 2025 is set at 5%, with an aim to reach a total economic output of 140 trillion yuan [2] - The government plans to implement a series of supportive policies for private investment and consumption, with a focus on coordinated monetary and fiscal policies [2][3] - The current economic environment shows a persistent issue of strong supply but weak demand, leading to low consumer price growth and insufficient consumer willingness [3][4] Group 3 - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with short-term focus on equity market trends and medium-term attention on the effectiveness of policies to boost economic momentum [4] - The anticipated implementation of accommodative monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures is expected to mitigate upward pressure on bond yields [3][4] - The bond market's response to macroeconomic data has been limited, influenced by the strong performance of the equity market and the lack of immediate significant easing measures [3][4]

地缘政治风险并未根本消除，包括中东局势、全球贸易体系重构等不确定性仍可能随时提振避险情绪，黄金作为非信用资产的价值依然突出。 短期内，金价走势可能受经济数据影响。投资者正密切关注即将公布的美国第三季度GDP终值、每周初请失业金人数及核心PCE物价指数。 若GDP数据表现疲软或就业市场出现松动迹象，可能加剧市场对美国经济放缓的担忧，从而施压美元，并为黄金带来上行动力。尤其核心PCE作为美联储重 视的通胀指标，若读数低于预期，可能强化市场对美联储未来维持宽松立场的预期，进一步支持金价中长期看涨逻辑。 近期黄金持续走强，主要受多重因素支撑：中美贸易关系不确定性延续、全球多地地缘政治局势紧张、以及美国与主要经济体之间的经济政策博弈，均促使 投资者将黄金视为重要的避险配置。然而，特朗普此次释放的关税缓和信号，暂时抑制了市场的避险需求，令金价出现技术性调整。若后续美欧间达成更具 体的协议，避免相互加征关税，黄金可能继续面临阶段性压力。 从中长期视角看，黄金的牛市基础并未动摇。全球主要央行陆续进入降息周期，市场对宽松货币环境的预期持续存在，实际利率下行趋势有望延续，这对黄 金构成根本性支撑。此外，各国央行持续增持黄金储备， ...

贵金属日报 2026-01-22 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | #N/A | 4769.10 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | 成交量 | | 万手 | #N/A | 40.64 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 52.75 | 48.81 | 上涨 | 8.06% | 86.79% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1124 | 1124 | 上涨 | 0.02% | 11.50% | | LBMA黄金 收盘价 | | 美元/盎司 | 4866.50 | 4747.80 | 上涨 | 2.50% | 9 ...

城堡基金CEO格里芬：特朗普试图敦促美联储推行的宽松货币政策增加了通胀风险。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported stable gold futures inventory, with increased demand for gold driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Market Data - Total gold futures inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99,990 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The opening price for gold futures was 1,063.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,101.92 CNY and a low of 1,060.10 CNY, with a current price of 1,092.30 CNY, reflecting a 3.69% increase [1]. - Trading volume was 350,273 contracts, with open interest at 207,266 contracts, and a daily increase in open interest of 21,302 contracts [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - Concerns over international trade and geopolitical risks have heightened, particularly due to the U.S. tariff policies regarding Greenland, leading to increased safe-haven demand for gold [1]. - Recent U.S. economic data has reinforced market expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, alongside concerns about the Fed's independence, which has bolstered expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [1].