经济学家Taro Kimura指出："如果日本央行迟迟不加息，市场可能会开始质疑其独立性。在政治与央行 职能的微妙平衡中，日本央行继续维持紧缩政策的可能性仍然存在。" 分析人士指出，如果日本领导人似乎推迟加息并导致日元贬值，这对美国来说可不是什么好事。美国总 统特朗普曾表示，日本正试图通过低汇率来获取优势。美国财政部长贝森特在 8 月份曾表示，日本央行 在应对通胀方面行动迟缓，这是他上任以来罕见的言论。 Nissay Asset Management高级投资经理Eiichiro Miura表示："市场正在考验自民党总裁高市早苗、财务 省以及日本央行的立场。在达到 160 之前，高市早苗很可能会被日本央行说服。而且，来自美国方面的 加息压力也可能存在。" 高市早苗所在的自民党在最近的全国选举中失去了对议会两院的控制权，民众对生活成本的不满被认为 是主要原因之一。日本的关键通胀指标已连续三年保持在或高于日本央行设定的 2%的目标水平，导致 实际工资持续下降。 智通财经APP获悉，日本首相候选人高市早苗赢得自民党总裁选举，有可能会促使日本央行在本月提高 利率。由于高市早苗主张推行宽松货币政策，在她当选自民党总裁后， ...

Group 1 - The potential new Prime Minister of Japan, Sanna Takashi, may inadvertently prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as this month due to her perceived disinterest in the central bank's actions, which has contributed to the depreciation of the yen [1][2] - The weakening yen is increasing import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures, and complicating Takashi's plans to alleviate the impact of rising living costs [1] - If the yen continues to decline towards 160, and the Bank of Japan maintains interest rates, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may need to intervene in the market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, indicated that the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October has increased under Takashi's leadership due to public dissatisfaction with the inflation caused by yen depreciation [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to expectations of continued monetary easing by the new government and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy direction, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1][2] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 152.50, with a weekly increase exceeding 3%, marking the largest rise since September 2024 [1] - Market participants are questioning the likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates in October or December, given the ongoing weakness in Japan's economy [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicate a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts, with inflation risks still a concern [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Expectations - The probability of a BOJ rate hike in late October has dropped to 27%, while December's likelihood stands at 44%, subject to changes with the new government [2] - BOJ officials express a mix of optimism and caution regarding the economic outlook, particularly concerning wage-related uncertainties [2] - Former BOJ officials suggest that the rationale for a rate hike this year is weak, advocating for a careful approach to policy normalization [2] Group 3: Potential Risks and Interventions - If the BOJ does not raise rates in October, the risk of foreign exchange intervention may increase, although decisive action is unlikely from the current government [2]

Group 1 - The unexpected election of high-ranking official Takemi Saimai as the new leader of the ruling party has led to a significant depreciation of the Japanese yen, with the exchange rate approaching the critical psychological level of 155 yen per dollar [1] - The yen's decline has prompted the Japanese Ministry of Finance to closely monitor excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, indicating potential intervention if the depreciation continues [1][2] - Market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have diminished due to Saimai's victory, with analysts suggesting that any rate increase may be postponed until December [1][3] Group 2 - The yen is nearing the intervention levels previously established by the Bank of Japan in 2024, with specific points of intervention identified around 157.99 to 161.76 yen per dollar [2] - Analysts from SBI FXTRADE have stated that there is currently no incentive to buy yen unless strong warnings are issued by the Ministry of Finance or signals of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan are provided [2] - Following the election results, Bank of America has revised its year-end forecast for the dollar-yen exchange rate from 153 to 155, while Deutsche Bank has downgraded its yen rating from "bullish" to "neutral" [3] Group 3 - The appointment of former finance ministers Shunichi Suzuki and Taro Aso to senior positions within the ruling party has provided some reassurance to market participants regarding fiscal policy stability [3] - The market's expectation for a rate hike in October has dropped significantly, from over 60% to approximately 25%, indicating a shift in sentiment following the election [3] - The future trajectory of the yen's value is heavily dependent on guidance from the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding short-term interest rate policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is drawing significant attention from financial and capital markets, with varying predictions on market impacts depending on the candidates' economic policies [2][4][5]. Group 1: Candidate Analysis - Among the candidates, Takashi Kawai is noted for his strong fiscal expansion and monetary easing stance, with predictions suggesting that if he wins, the Nikkei average could rise to around 48,000 points by year-end [2][5]. - Shunichi Suzuki, representing a continuation of the current government's fiscal tightening policies, is perceived as lacking the ability to drive overall market growth, leading to expectations of a slight market adjustment if he wins [4][7]. - Yoshihide Suga's policies are expected to maintain the status quo, with limited impact on market fluctuations if he is elected [7][8]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market has reacted positively to the prospect of Kawai's victory, with short-term foreign capital inflows boosting related stocks, indicating a strong correlation between candidate selection and market performance [5][8]. - In the foreign exchange market, there is a consensus that Kawai's election would not hinder the Bank of Japan from raising interest rates, with expectations for the yen to appreciate towards 145 yen per dollar [4][7]. - Conversely, if Suzuki wins, the yen may depreciate by approximately 2 yen against the dollar, reflecting concerns over fiscal policy direction [7]. Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Kawai's economic policies emphasize growth through advanced technologies and tax revenue increases, while also showing signs of pragmatic adjustments, such as reconsidering previous tax reduction proposals [7][8]. - Concerns about fiscal deterioration are prevalent, with predictions that the 30-year government bond yield could drop to around 3% from its current level of approximately 3.2% [4][7]. - The upcoming election is expected to be more dynamic than in 2024, with a smaller candidate pool allowing for more in-depth discussions, potentially exposing weaknesses in candidates like Suzuki [8].

Group 1 - The US dollar exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level since the end of July, influenced by various factors [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data release in the US is expected to significantly impact the dollar's performance [1] - Analysts predict that the dollar index will experience fluctuations, initially declining before rising again due to interest rate cut expectations and potential interventions [1] Group 2 - The divergence in French policies highlights the challenges of policy coordination, which may affect the dollar index in relation to the euro [1] - Internal and external pressures are contributing to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, with expectations of a potential rebound in the future [1]

日本共同社：日本自民党总务会长铃木俊一拟辞任。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#行情 日元日内持续走贬值，美元兑日元日内涨幅达1%，报148.64。共同社等日媒消息称，日本自民党2日上午召开有关参院选举大败的总结委员会会议，列举了“政治与金钱”问题等多条败因，还强调“要像解散政党一样重新出发”。石破茂政权的中流砥柱、干事长森山裕曾暗示会在总结完毕后辞职。 https://t.co/ciB0j1Xe4q ...

Core Viewpoint - The remittance amount from foreign workers in Japan has significantly increased, reaching a historical high in the first half of 2025, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yen for the year due to factors such as bonuses and long holidays [2][4]. Group 1: Remittance Trends - In the first half of 2025, remittances from foreign workers in Japan amounted to 506.8 billion yen, marking a 38% increase year-on-year and setting a new half-year record [2][4]. - The total remittance amount is projected to surpass the previous record of 847.5 billion yen set in 2024, potentially exceeding 1 trillion yen for the first time [4]. - The number of foreign workers in Japan has increased by 12% year-on-year, reaching 2.3 million, with Vietnamese nationals being the largest group [4]. Group 2: Remittance Destinations - The top remittance destinations in 2024 included Vietnam (326.2 billion yen), Indonesia (102.1 billion yen), and the Philippines (90.2 billion yen) [6]. - Global remittance flows have tripled over the past 20 years, with Japan ranking 25th in terms of outbound remittance amounts [6]. Group 3: Risks Associated with Remittances - There are two main risks associated with remittances from foreign workers: illegal activities and the impact on the yen exchange rate [8]. - A survey indicated that 2% of foreign residents in Japan used underground remittance services, primarily due to favorable exchange rates [8]. - Increased remittance amounts could lead to higher selling pressure on the yen as foreign workers convert yen to their local currencies [8]. Group 4: Domestic Remittance Trends - In the first half of 2025, remittances from Japanese residents abroad to Japan totaled 303.1 billion yen, a 10% decrease year-on-year [9]. - The net selling of yen after accounting for remittances was 203.7 billion yen, the highest half-year figure since comparable data began in 1996 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term depreciation of the Japanese yen, which began in 2022 and continues into 2025, is primarily driven by underlying issues in Japan's trade balance rather than just interest rate differentials between the US dollar and the yen [6]. Group 1: Trade Balance Analysis - Japan's trade balance statistics reveal a disconnect from actual cash flows, indicating that Japan has entered a trade deficit when considering the "digital deficit" issue [6]. - The reliance on US IT giants, high costs of overseas insurance and pension services, and stagnation in domestic R&D capabilities are significant economic problems affecting Japan's international trade [6]. Group 2: Currency and Cash Flow Dynamics - The fluctuations in exchange rates reflect the movement of cash flows, which helps to understand the complex dynamics of global trade and the competition between nations [6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided a clear hint of potential interest rate cuts, causing significant market reactions, with the dollar index dropping as much as 0.94% on August 22[3] - The Fed is facing challenges with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks skewed downwards, indicating a need to adjust policy stance[3] - The abandonment of the flexible average inflation targeting framework opens the door for quicker rate cuts if inflation shows signs of rapid decline[4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is exhibiting a "curious kind of balance," with both labor supply and demand significantly slowing, which could lead to a rise in unemployment if participation rates do not improve[4] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions ahead of the September FOMC meeting[4] - Initial jobless claims rose in the third week of August, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, but previous strong data complicates the assessment[4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - Japan's core CPI remained flat at 3.4% in July, suggesting that input inflation may be ending, with future inflation risks leaning towards a decline[26] - The U.S. imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan is expected to further impact Japan's manufacturing PMI, indicating a deteriorating external demand environment[26] - If U.S. economic data points to effective fiscal expansion and improved employment, a rebound in the already weakened dollar index may be more likely[5]