Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, issued a strong warning regarding the rapid depreciation of the yen, indicating the possibility of intervention in the foreign exchange market due to the alarming trend [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation Concerns - The yen has been depreciating rapidly against the US dollar, recently falling to around 157 yen per dollar, which is causing economic pressure in Japan, particularly affecting the costs for importers and impacting households and small businesses [3]. - Kato expressed deep concern over the "one-sided and rapid" movement of the yen against the dollar, marking this statement as the strongest warning since the depreciation began [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The depreciation of the yen is expected to increase costs for imported goods, which could further strain the Japanese economy [3]. - There are concerns that potential travel or export restrictions from China could exacerbate the situation, leading to increased downward pressure on the yen [5]. - Factors such as weakened inbound demand and a slowing economy may prevent the Bank of Japan from considering interest rate hikes, adding to the depreciation pressure on the yen [5].

新华财经北京11月21日电（崔凯）日本总务省21日公布的数据显示，10月剔除生鲜食品价格后的核心消 费者物价指数（CPI）同比上涨3.0%，较9月的2.9%进一步加速，连续第35个月高于日本央行设定的2% 通胀目标。 食品价格持续走高是推动通胀上行的主要因素。作为高度依赖进口资源的经济体，日本在日元急剧贬值 背景下，进口成本显著上升，并进一步传导至国内物价，尤以食品和能源领域表现突出。总务省指出， 自2022年4月以来，该核心通胀指标始终处于或高于2%的目标水平。 这一数据进一步强化了市场对日本央行短期内推进货币政策正常化的预期。日本央行此前已多次强调， 为确保物价稳定，有必要逐步退出超宽松政策框架。 同日，在国会听证会上，日本央行行长植田和男明确表示，日元持续疲软可能进一步推高国内通胀。他 指出，由于日元贬值抬升进口成本，企业当前更倾向于同步上调工资与产品价格，从而强化了汇率波动 向物价的传导效应。植田强调，相较以往，汇率对通胀的影响正变得"更为显著"，央行必须对此保持高 度警惕。 （文章来源：新华财经） 值得注意的是，审议委员小枝淳子近日亦发表偏鹰派言论，凸显日本央行内部对通胀风险的担忧正在上 升。尽管副 ...

Core Insights - Japan's exports to the United States have been declining for seven consecutive months since April 2023, primarily due to U.S. tariff policies [1] - In October, Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 3.1% year-on-year to 1.75 trillion yen (approximately 15.7 billion USD), with significant declines in automotive, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and pharmaceuticals [1] - The trade deficit has persisted for four months, with October's trade deficit reaching 231.8 billion yen, despite an overall export increase of 3.6% to 9.7663 trillion yen [1] Export Performance - The decline in exports to the U.S. is largely attributed to a 7.5% decrease in automotive exports, a 49.6% drop in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and a 30.8% reduction in pharmaceuticals [1] - Automotive exports remain the largest factor contributing to the ongoing decline in Japan's exports to the U.S. [1] Trade Deficit Context - The continuous decline in exports to the U.S. has led to a trade deficit, which is a significant factor in the depreciation of the yen [1] - Exports to Asia and the European Union have increased, helping to offset some of the losses from U.S. exports [1]

Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, marking the 50th consecutive month of increase, indicating a continued expansion in price levels [1] - The October CPI increase surpassed the previous month's rate of 2.9%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices [1] - Key contributors to the price increase include higher costs for household durable goods, hotel accommodation, and automobile insurance [1] Detailed Summary - The core CPI reached 112.1 in October, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - The rise in prices was driven by significant increases in specific categories: - Ordinary japonica rice prices saw a year-on-year increase of 39.6% - Chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 36.9% and 53.4% respectively - Hotel accommodation costs increased by 8.5% year-on-year [1] - Concerns are growing among media and experts regarding the impact of active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies on the depreciation of the yen, which may further exacerbate inflation in Japan [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katayama, expressed concerns about the recent depreciation of the yen, describing it as "very one-sided and rapid," which raises worries [2][4] - Katayama indicated that appropriate measures will be considered based on the situation, emphasizing that currency intervention is certainly an option to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market [2][4] - The joint statement from September highlighted that currency intervention is regarded as an appropriate response to excessive fluctuations or disorderly depreciation/appreciation [4] Group 2 - Katayama stressed the importance of exchange rates reflecting economic fundamentals and maintaining stable fluctuations [4]

但片山皋月后来告诉记者，双方没有就汇率问题进行具体讨论。 她的言论让投资者对日本政府和日本央行干预汇市的担忧有所缓解。纽约市场的日元抛售继续加剧，令 日元汇率跌至10个月低点，报157日元区间。 新华财经北京11月20日电据日媒周四（20日）晚间报道，日本财务省和日本央行一致同意，在日元贬值 和利率上升的情况下，两家机构将对金融市场的发展保持警惕。 该媒体称，日本财务省大臣片山皋月和日本央行行长植田和男周三举行会谈，讨论经济和货币政策。负 责成长战略的大臣城内实也出席了会议。 双方重申，政府和央行将密切配合，实施政策，实现持续稳定的物价上涨和经济增长。他们还同意有必 要与金融市场谨慎沟通。 抛售日元的另一个原因是，人们一直担心高市政府出台的新经济措施可能会扩大债务规模，导致财政状 况恶化。 此外，市场消息人士称，对美联储将不会在12月会议上实施降息的猜测，也促使投资者抛售日元，买入 美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation against the US dollar, influenced by various factors including government fiscal expansion policies, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization, and widening interest rate differentials between the US and Japan [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached 157.48, the highest level since January 2025, reflecting a 5% appreciation since October 4, 2023 [1] - The nominal effective exchange rate of the yen fell to 71.4, nearing the low point observed during the intervention in July 2024 [1] - The depreciation of the yen is coupled with rising Japanese government bond yields, with the 10-year yield hitting 1.825%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The Japanese government is pushing for a comprehensive economic strategy exceeding 20 trillion yen, which includes child subsidies and energy assistance, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the current debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 260% [2] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, marking the end of six consecutive quarters of growth, indicating weak domestic and external demand [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The market's expectation for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December is only at 57%, as the central bank maintains a policy rate of 0.5% despite core CPI exceeding the 2% target for 36 consecutive months [2][3] - The Japanese government opposes interest rate hikes, arguing that inflation has not yet reached a sustainable level, which conflicts with the Bank of Japan's logic of a wage-price positive cycle [2][3] Group 4: Market Reactions and Predictions - Financial institutions have lowered their forecasts for the yen, with JPMorgan adjusting its prediction for the USD/JPY exchange rate to 156 by the end of 2025 [4] - Key upcoming events include the announcement of the stimulus plan on November 21 and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in December, which could significantly influence the yen's trajectory [4] Group 5: Policy Indicators and Potential Outcomes - A potential increase in the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% could lead to a 1-2% appreciation of the yen [5] - Continuous inflation above 3% for six months may force the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy, leading to a medium-term strengthening of the yen [5] - The government's focus on monitoring exchange rate fluctuations may signal a prelude to verbal interventions, potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must continue to normalize its monetary policy by raising real interest rates to avoid unexpected market distortions, as stated by BOJ member Junko Koeda [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Junko Koeda indicated that if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda proposes a rate hike in the coming months, she would support it, emphasizing the need for policy rate adjustments based on economic activity and price improvements [1]. - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% despite core consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate changes [1]. - A survey revealed that 53% of economists expect the BOJ to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% in the upcoming December meeting, with a median forecast of 1.00% by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Koeda noted that corporate profits remain high, the economy shows resilience, and recent food price increases may affect inflation expectations [1]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, leading to concerns about imported inflation and price pressures, prompting expectations of early rate hikes by the BOJ [4]. - Economists believe that if wage growth momentum is confirmed and aligns with government coordination, the likelihood of a December rate hike is very high [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Wage Growth - Koeda is monitoring Japan's minimum wage standards and the impact of increased employment mobility on wages, indicating that wage negotiations will be crucial for achieving inflation targets [2]. - A majority of economists (81%) expect that wage increases in the upcoming year will not exceed the previous year's 5.25%, suggesting a potential slowdown in wage growth [4]. - Despite a slight expected decline in overall corporate profits, strong corporate earnings are anticipated to support high wage growth rates through 2026 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the challenges faced by Japan's Prime Minister, Kishi Sanae, in balancing aggressive fiscal policies with a loose monetary environment, which may exacerbate inflation risks due to the continuous depreciation of the yen since her election [2][4] - Kishi has expressed concerns about the current inflation being cost-push and has shown caution towards hasty interest rate hikes, indicating a respect for the independence of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) [4][6] - The upcoming cabinet meeting on November 21 is expected to finalize Kishi's first comprehensive economic measures, focusing on expanding support for food purchases and local delivery funds [4][6] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate moving from 147 yen per dollar before Kishi's election to around 155 yen currently, raising concerns about rising import prices [2][4] - The market has reacted to the potential for delayed interest rate hikes due to fiscal expansion, leading to a sell-off of the yen and an increase in bond yields, with the 20-year government bond yield reaching 2.810%, the highest in 26 years [6] - There is a growing consensus within the government and the BOJ that if inflation accelerates further, interest rate hikes may become unavoidable, with market expectations for rate increases in December and January reaching 70% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been weakening due to market expectations that the newly elected Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, will pressure the Bank of Japan to slow down interest rate hikes, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 5% since October 4, reaching 155.00 [1] Group 1: Government Response to Yen Depreciation - Upgrading verbal intervention is highly likely, as the Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the yen's "one-sided and severe" fluctuations, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressing heightened vigilance against the yen's volatility [2] - There is a possibility of signaling recent interest rate hikes, as concerns over the yen's depreciation may prompt Prime Minister Takashi to support raising the policy rate to 0.75% [3] - The Bank of Japan may implement interest rate hikes, with indications from Governor Kazuo Ueda suggesting a gradual adjustment of monetary easing, potentially leading to a rate increase in December or January [4] Group 2: Market Intervention Considerations - The likelihood of direct market intervention is low, as the last intervention occurred in July 2024 when the yen hit a 38-year low against the dollar, and current government members do not show significant concern over yen depreciation [5]