固定收益 | 固定收益点评 跨月后，本周资金面维持均衡偏松，资金利率中枢有所下移，央行打破月 末公告买断式逆回购操作惯例，宣布 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放 流动性呵护信号，资金分层现象仍不明显。 央行前置买断式逆回购操作，如何理解？ 固收周度点评 20250608 证券研究报告 暖风再起，静待下行 政策暖风再起，短端表现较强，收益率曲线走陡 本周（6/3-6/6）债市有所回暖，短端明显强势，曲线走陡，背后有几点 驱动因素：一是月初资金面维持均衡宽松，央行超预期前置买断式逆回购 操作，释放重要信号，以及市场开始预期国债买卖适时重启，对短端品种 形成利好，机构抢跑；二是中美元首通话落地，中美贸易局势的演绎、以 及后续中美关税贸易谈判存在的不确定性，基本面逻辑整体或仍有利于债 市。 全周收益率走势来看，债市收益率普遍下行，短端表现好于长端。截至 6/6， 1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率较上周分别下行 4.5BP、3.6BP、1.7BP、2.0BP 至 1.41%、1.43%、1.65%、1.88%。 流动性呵护之下，资金面均衡宽松 6 月 5 日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，此 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and stabilize market expectations [1] - The operation is aimed at preventing fluctuations in the funding environment, as the banking system has shown a slight marginal contraction in liquidity recently [1] - The PBOC's decision to disclose the scale of the reverse repurchase operation earlier in the month enhances the transparency of monetary policy and helps guide market expectations [1] Group 2 - There is speculation that the PBOC may conduct additional reverse repurchase operations within June, as there is no restriction on the frequency of these operations [2] - The reverse repurchase operations are expected to work alongside Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to maintain liquidity in the banking system [2] - The use of various liquidity management tools, including MLF and reverse repos, is crucial for increasing credit availability for enterprises and households, thereby reducing financing costs in the real economy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a significant operation of 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repos starting from June 6, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a shift in its usual announcement timing from the end of the month to the beginning [1][4][6] Group 1: Operation Details - The buyout reverse repo operation will be conducted with a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - This tool, introduced in October 2024, aims to enhance liquidity management and cross-period adjustment capabilities within one year [1][5] - The PBOC has conducted multiple buyout reverse repo operations up to early June 2025, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1] Group 2: Reasons for the Operation - The operation is primarily aimed at countering liquidity pressure, as 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos will mature in June [3][4] - It also serves to strengthen expectation management and policy transparency, with the PBOC breaking the convention of announcing operations at the end of the month [4][6] - The move is seen as a response to the high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing in June, which is expected to reach 4.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly record [4][9] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The announcement is expected to stabilize market expectations and maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the banking system [4][6] - Analysts suggest that the buyout reverse repo will complement the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) as a channel for medium to long-term liquidity [5][9] - The PBOC's actions are viewed as part of a broader strategy to support credit growth to the real economy and manage liquidity effectively [5][9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a large-scale reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan for a 3-month term, breaking the usual practice of announcing such operations at the end of the month [1] - The operation aims to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system and stabilize market expectations, particularly in light of the high volume of bank interbank certificates maturing in recent months [1][2] - In May, the PBOC conducted a total of 700 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan due to maturing operations [2] Group 2 - Analysts expect the PBOC to continue using various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to support credit growth and government bond issuance [3] - The current focus is on encouraging banks to increase lending to the real economy, which is essential for reducing financing costs for businesses and households [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase is conducive to stabilizing the capital expectation, and the cross - half - year liquidity pressure is controllable. Attention should be paid to short - end allocation opportunities [3][5] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, and the liquidity tools for each term are relatively complete [4][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Outright Reverse Repurchase Operation Pre - operation - On June 6, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [2][11] - From April to June 2025, the outright reverse repurchase continued to have a small - scale net withdrawal, and the current balance is around 4.2 trillion. The pre - operation in June is mainly to consider the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit and the concentrated issuance of government bonds [3][11] - The operation time is advanced, and the arrival rhythm of funds may be accelerated. In the future, the announcement may be released one day in advance, which is consistent with the MLF operation mode, facilitating institutions to arrange liquidity in advance [3][11] - The operation frequency is theoretically once a month. Whether there will be an additional operation in June remains to be seen, or the MLF may be flexibly increased at the end of the month [3][12] 3.2 Take Stock of the Central Bank's Toolbox - The central bank adjusted the "Monetary Policy Tools" section and disclosed the monthly investment of various tools for the first time, increasing a market communication channel [16] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, including short - term (7 - day reverse repurchase, overnight reverse repurchase), medium - term (MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and various structural tools), and long - term (reserve requirement ratio cut, treasury bond trading) tools [4][17] - The reverse repurchase tool fluctuates in the range of 0 - 3 trillion; the balance of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF is flexibly adjusted between 4 - 5 trillion; the PSL balance has declined to below 2 trillion; other structural monetary policy tools total about 3.9 trillion, accounting for about 22% of the relevant subject, and there is still about 1 trillion of the subject without a clear corresponding tool [4][21][22] 3.3 Cross - Half - Year Liquidity Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Short - End Allocation Opportunities - After the double cuts, the central bank's investment thinking is relatively positive. In May, after the reserve requirement ratio cut, the MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and 7D reverse repurchase maintained positive investment. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June is conducive to stabilizing capital expectations [5][25] - Historically, the central bank has mostly protected the market during the cross - half - year period. It is expected that the risk of a significant tightening of funds is relatively controllable. The DR007 is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [5][31][33] - For short - end varieties, when the yield of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is above 1.7%, their allocation value can be considered. The cost - performance of short - term treasury bonds is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading on the short - end market [6][36][37]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan through a buyout reverse repurchase operation, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system and enhancing policy transparency [1][3]. Group 1: Liquidity Injection Details - The PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a term of 3 months (91 days) on June 6 [1]. - This operation is distinct from the usual monthly announcements, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][4]. - In May, the PBOC's liquidity tools showed a net injection of 10,000 million yuan from reserve requirement adjustments and 3,750 million yuan from medium-term lending facilities (MLF) [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analysis - Analysts believe this operation is crucial for addressing liquidity concerns as the mid-year approaches, especially with a high volume of interbank certificates of deposit maturing [5][6]. - The decision to announce the operation earlier in the month is seen as a strategy to stabilize market expectations and ensure banks can manage their liquidity needs effectively [6][7]. - The PBOC's commitment to maintaining liquidity stability is evident through various tools, including MLF and reserve requirement adjustments, which have collectively injected substantial liquidity into the market [6][8]. Group 3: Policy Transparency and Future Outlook - The PBOC has improved transparency by establishing a new section on its website to disclose operational data related to liquidity tools, enhancing market confidence [7][8]. - The buyout reverse repurchase operation is expected to be part of a broader strategy, with potential for additional operations throughout the month to ensure liquidity remains sufficient [8][9]. - The pricing mechanism for the buyout reverse repurchase is anticipated to be more market-oriented, aligning with current interbank rates, while maintaining the status of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant operation of 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos to enhance market liquidity and stabilize financial markets, breaking the traditional end-of-month announcement pattern [1][2]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a 500 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, following the maturity of 500 billion yuan in 3-month and 700 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos in June [1]. - The early announcement of the reverse repo operation is intended to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, especially as the demand for funds typically increases in June [2][3]. - The PBOC's move to implement reverse repos is seen as a response to the high volume of bank interbank certificates maturing, aiming to control fluctuations in the money market [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The current high level of the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) interest rate has led to a decrease in financial institutions' demand for MLF, prompting the PBOC to use reverse repos as a substitute to lower funding costs [3]. - It is anticipated that the PBOC will continue to reduce the scale of MLF operations, with a consistent decline in its balance [4]. - The PBOC is expected to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to ensure sustained liquidity in the banking system, which is crucial for enhancing credit availability for enterprises and households [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, but Trump's administration has a changeable style, and tariff policies still face significant uncertainties. Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, and the policy level is in a relative vacuum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for futures index operations and be cautious about chasing rising prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.41 with a - 0.03bp change; DR007 at 1.55 with a 0.53bp change; GC001 at 1.49 with a - 1.00bp change; GC007 at 1.59 with a - 0.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.65 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds decreased by 1.28bp, 1.80bp, and 0.81bp respectively, while the 10 - year US treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.46 [4] - The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2155 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. This week, 16026 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. After the monthly bank assessment, the money market has become looser, and the central bank uses various tools to maintain reasonable liquidity [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.43% to 3868.7, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.13% to 2690.8, the CSI 500 rose 0.78% to 5739, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.88% to 6123.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 116 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, while aviation, logistics, and aerospace sectors declined [5] - Rumors of Sino - US trade negotiations have affected the market. Stock indices have rebounded for two days but have not broken through key resistance levels, and trading volume has not significantly increased. Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, and the policy level is in a vacuum. It is recommended to wait and see for futures index operations [6] 3.3 Futures Contract Market - For IF, the trading volume was 69824 with a - 7.1% change, and the open interest was 229448 with a - 2.9% change. For IH, the trading volume was 31907 with a - 20.4% change, and the open interest was 78806 with a - 3.8% change. For IC, the trading volume was 58090 with a - 16.3% change, and the open interest was 206376 with a - 3.4% change. For IM, the trading volume was 151505 with a - 7.9% change, and the open interest was 315489 with a - 1.8% change [5] - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts was 15.53%, 14.05%, 0.02%, and 6.60% respectively. The IH basis was 14.60%, 14.62%, 6.77%, and 3.65% respectively. The IC basis was 19.96%, 17.35%, 14.18%, and 11.80% respectively. The IM basis was 25.77%, 21.73%, 18.19%, and 15.27% respectively [7]

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 214.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 4, with the bid and awarded amounts being equal [1] - On the same day, 215.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan, indicating a relatively small scale of operation [1] - This operation reflects the central bank's flexible and precise liquidity management, helping to maintain balance in market liquidity and avoid excessive accumulation or shortage of funds [1] Group 2: European Central Bank Approval - The European Central Bank officially approved Bulgaria's application to adopt the euro, making it the 21st member of the Eurozone, with plans to start using the euro on January 1, 2026 [2] - The European Commission highlighted that joining the Eurozone will benefit Bulgaria by stabilizing prices, reducing transaction costs, protecting savings, increasing investment, and promoting trade [2] - To successfully integrate into the Eurozone, Bulgaria needs to implement strong policies to enhance economic competitiveness and resilience [2] Group 3: Trust Industry Growth - The China Trust Industry Association reported that the total trust assets reached 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, an increase of 5.64 trillion yuan from the end of 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [3] - This growth is attributed to the trust industry's transition towards a more diversified and professional asset service model, moving away from traditional non-standard financing [3] - The significant change in asset scale reflects the industry's proactive adjustment to market demand under the "three classifications" business transformation [3] Group 4: U.S. Economic Pressure - Following disappointing ADP employment data for May, which showed an increase of only 37,000 jobs compared to an expected 110,000, President Trump urged Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates [4] - The employment growth rate in May was the lowest since March 2023, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding its monetary policy [4] - Trump argues that not lowering interest rates puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage, while the Federal Reserve maintains its policy independence based on economic data and analysis [4] Group 5: Corporate Name Change - Recently, the company formerly known as Jiexin Consumer Finance officially changed its name to Tianjin JD Consumer Finance Co., Ltd., indicating a significant corporate restructuring [5] - The registered capital was reduced from 7 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan, and new shareholders were added, including JD's subsidiaries [5] - This name change signifies the completion of the equity restructuring and is expected to enhance JD's customer service capabilities and promote healthy development in the platform economy [5]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan, marking a shift from net liquidity injection to neutral adjustment, indicating precise liquidity management by the central bank [2] - The net liquidity withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan aligns with market expectations, as the market liquidity has naturally eased with the end of the month-end assessment factors [2] - The central bank is expected to continue using various tools such as reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to ensure reasonable liquidity in the banking system [2][3] Group 2 - The PBOC has established a multi-dimensional liquidity management system, relying on reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions for stable support, while using MLF and reverse repos for maintaining reasonable liquidity [2] - Market expectations suggest that the central bank may release long-term liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts if necessary, with predictions that the DR007 will remain around 1.5% [3] - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the commitment to a prudent monetary policy, adjusting policy strength and rhythm flexibly according to changing circumstances to create a suitable monetary environment for economic recovery [3]