Core Points - Germany's industrial new orders fell by 2.9% month-on-month in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1] - Domestic new orders decreased by 2.5%, while foreign orders dropped by 3.1%, with orders from the Eurozone and outside the Eurozone declining by 3.8% and 2.8% respectively [1] - The significant decline in new orders was primarily driven by a 38.6% drop in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, which includes aircraft, ships, and trains [1] - The automotive sector, however, saw a month-on-month increase in new orders of 6.5% [1] - Year-on-year, industrial new orders in Germany decreased by 3.4% after seasonal adjustment [1] - The German Minister of Economic Affairs, Katrin Göring-Eckardt, indicated that the continuous decline in industrial new orders necessitates a focus on restoring industrial competitiveness, including reducing energy and labor costs [1] - Economic forecasts from major research institutions suggest that Germany's economic growth for 2025 will only be between 0.1% and 0.2%, lower than previous summer predictions, influenced by factors such as U.S. tariff policies [1]

Core Insights - Germany's industrial new orders fell by 2.9% month-on-month in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][2] - Domestic new orders decreased by 2.5%, while foreign new orders dropped by 3.1%, with orders from the Eurozone and outside the Eurozone declining by 3.8% and 2.8% respectively [1] - The significant decline in new orders was primarily driven by a 38.6% drop in the transportation equipment manufacturing sector, which includes aircraft, ships, and trains [1] - In contrast, the automotive sector saw a month-on-month increase in new orders of 6.5% [1] Economic Outlook - Year-on-year, Germany's industrial new orders decreased by 3.4% in July [2] - The German Minister of Economic Affairs, Katrin Göring-Eckardt, indicated that the continuous decline in industrial new orders has led several major economic research institutions to revise down their growth forecasts for Germany's economy this year [2] - According to forecasts from institutions like the Munich Institute for Economic Research, Germany's economic growth is expected to be only 0.1% to 0.2% in 2025, which is lower than previous summer predictions [2]

报告均表示，美国关税政策持续对德国出口造成冲击，明显加重德国经济下行压力。尽管欧盟与美国就 关税争端达成新协议，但因协议内容含糊、税率大体不变，对德国经济的不利影响难以缓解。 新华财经柏林9月4日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）多家德国主要经济研究机构4日分别发布的秋季预测报告 显示，受美国关税政策等因素影响，2025年德国经济仅将增长0.1%至0.2%，低于夏季预测值。 德国经济在2023年和2024年连续两年萎缩后，今年第一季度环比增长0.3%。但随着4月美国对进口汽车 等商品加征关税的措施生效，二季度德国出口环比下降0.1%，国内生产总值环比下降0.3%。 年中德国政府宣布的设立大规模基础设施基金等财政措施未能带来预期刺激，是此次预期下调的原因之 一。报告普遍认为，德国经济仍然低迷，主要表现为制造业和服务业需求不足、建筑业持续疲软，以及 个人消费复苏缓慢。 （文章来源：新华社） 哈雷经济研究所副所长奥利弗·霍尔特莫勒表示，美国关税虽已被纳入预测模型，但由于相关政策仍存 高度不确定性，未来可能对德国经济构成进一步威胁。如果出口延续第二季度下降趋势，未来几个季度 德国经济复苏前景不容乐观。 报告同时认为，若联邦政府大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple German economic research institutions have revised down their growth forecasts for the German economy in 2025 to only 0.1% to 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and insufficient domestic fiscal stimulus measures [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth Forecasts - The revised growth forecast for 2025 is lower than previous summer predictions, reflecting ongoing economic stagnation in Germany [1] - The German economy is expected to experience two consecutive years of contraction in 2023 and 2024, with a slight growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of this year [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Economic Performance - The lack of expected stimulation from the large-scale infrastructure fund announced by the German government is a key reason for the downward revision of growth expectations [1] - Continued U.S. tariff policies are significantly impacting German exports, exacerbating the downward pressure on the economy [1] - Despite a new agreement between the EU and the U.S. regarding tariffs, the vague terms and unchanged tax rates are unlikely to alleviate the negative effects on the German economy [1] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The reports indicate a persistent weakness in manufacturing and services demand, ongoing fatigue in the construction sector, and a slow recovery in personal consumption [1] - If the federal government's large-scale fiscal spending plans are effectively implemented and structural reforms are promoted, there is potential for gradual improvement in the German economy [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q3 down by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% due to unexpectedly large expansion in the trade deficit in July [8] - The July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.27% month-on-month and 2.88% year-on-year, aligning with previous estimates and market expectations [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the U.S. goods trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [6] Economic Indicators - Personal income in July increased by 0.4%, supported by steady growth in employment compensation, owner income, and rental income [6] - Personal consumption expenditures showed strong performance, rising by 0.5% month-on-month, slightly above Goldman Sachs' expectations [6] - The actual personal spending, adjusted for inflation, grew by 0.3%, with notable increases in goods consumption (0.9%) and a slight rise in services spending (0.1%) [6] Trade Data Analysis - The significant increase in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $18.6 billion rise in imports, while exports saw a slight decline of $1 billion [6] - The surge in imports is believed to be a response to businesses stocking up ahead of new tariff policies set to take effect in August [6] - Notable increases in imports were seen in industrial goods and capital goods, which rose by $12.3 billion and $4.4 billion, respectively [6] Inflation and Domestic Demand - Despite the trade data being weaker than expected, core inflation and consumption expenditure data indicate that the U.S. economy is maintaining a moderate expansion [8] - The domestic final sales indicator, which measures domestic demand strength, is expected to continue showing positive growth, reflecting the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy [8]

Group 1 - The current trend of the US dollar appears to be more aligned with changes in economic growth expectations rather than fluctuations in interest rate differentials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and moderate PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in tech stocks caused a reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively. The revised Q2 GDP data exceeded expectations, driven by business investment, while analysts have raised their growth forecasts for Q3 U.S. economy [2][3][4]. Major Assets - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook raised concerns about the independence of the Fed. The July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index decreased by 0.06% to 97.77, and spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [3][4]. Overseas Economy - The Q2 GDP revision for the U.S. was +3.3%, surpassing the expected +3.1%, with fixed asset investment contributing significantly. Analysts have slightly upgraded their Q3 growth forecasts, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% and the New York Fed's Nowcast model at +2.22%. Inflation expectations have been adjusted, with analysts forecasting a CPI growth rate of 2.9% for Q3 [4][5]. Overseas Politics - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Fed's establishment in 1913, raising concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, which is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14, allowing time for an appeal [5].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data and inflation remains controlled [1][2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, challenging the legality of her dismissal, and claims that any issues with mortgage documents may be mere "clerical errors" [1] - The European Commission proposed two legislative measures to implement a joint tariff declaration with the U.S., which includes the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU cars and parts from 27.5% to 15% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, indicating a pause in easing policies until financial imbalances in real estate, credit, and foreign exchange markets are significantly alleviated [1] - The Bank of Korea raised its 2025 economic growth forecast from 0.8% to 0.9% and increased its inflation forecast from 1.9% to 2.0% [1] Group 3 - Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, indicating continued weak market confidence and unclear economic recovery prospects [2] - U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized revised growth rate increased by 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, indicating stability in the job market [2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 45,636.9 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.32% to 6,501.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.53% to 21,705.16 points, with both the Dow and S&P reaching new closing highs [3] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.27% to $39.71 per ounce [4] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.27% to $64.32 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.31% to $67.65 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.64 basis points to 3.627%, while the 5-year yield fell by 1.24 basis points to 3.687%, the 10-year yield decreased by 3.29 basis points to 4.201%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4.68 basis points to 4.872% [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.33% to 97.87, with the euro rising by 0.38% against the dollar to 1.1682 [5]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar rose to around 1.16, with a current quote of 1.1632, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous close of 1.1615 [1] - Eurozone's July CPI data remained consistent with initial estimates, showing an overall inflation rate of 2.0% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1] - Core inflation decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating no significant acceleration in inflation, alleviating market concerns about rising inflation [1] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde expressed a cautious outlook on economic growth for Q4, suggesting potential downward pressure on the Eurozone economy despite its resilience amid multiple shocks [1] - Lagarde's statements did not provide clear hawkish or dovish signals, maintaining a neutral stance in light of inflation not exceeding expectations and ongoing economic uncertainties [1] - The market is awaiting further data and policy signals to clarify direction, as the euro did not gain significant upward momentum from Lagarde's remarks [1]

Group 1 - The South Korean government has revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down to 0.9% [1] - The government anticipates that the economic growth rate will double next year to 1.8% [1] - Economic growth was weak in the first quarter (0%) and second quarter (0.5%), but a recovery is expected in the second half of the year due to policy measures such as supplementary budgets [1] Group 2 - The growth forecast takes into account various negative factors, including emergency measures, impeachment issues, and new U.S. tariff policies [1] - The forecast does not reflect the recent U.S. announcement of separate tariffs on semiconductors [1]