其他热点还有：外卖平台迎来反垄断调查，一周之内三家AI企业港交所上市。 光伏产品增值税出口退税取消 继2024年底中国将光伏、电池出口退税率由13%下调至9%后，1月9日财政部、税务总局发布公告，决 定自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税；自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池 产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 当前，光伏产业存在供需错配和无序低价竞争等问题。去年7月初，工业和信息化部召开光伏行业制造 业企业座谈会，提出依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产 能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。 根据中国光伏行业协会数据，光伏主产业链31家企业2025年前三季度营业收入同比下降16.9%，合计亏 损310.39亿元。受全球光伏产业链价格整体下行影响，我国光伏产品出口额已连续两年同比下降。 【点评】经过多年出口退税支持，我国光伏和电池产业在国际上已经具备竞争优势，但也出现了无序低 价竞争以及其他一些国家反补贴调查等问题。业内人士认为，取消出口退税可看作"反内卷"的另一举 措，意在逼迫企业放弃 ...

（来源：经济日报） 按新车销售价格（价税合计）定比例补贴并设定上限。此前定额补贴存在缺乏价格弹性，无法根据车辆实际价值调整补贴力度，可能导致高价位车型补 贴相对不足，或低价车型补贴相对过剩。同时，定额补贴激励作用有限，对消费者选择车辆价格的引导作用较弱，难以精准匹配政策目标，无法促进中 高端车型更新。将补贴金额与车价挂钩，消费者可根据自身购车预算和需求选择更适合的方式购买相应车型，既提升政策公平性与精准度，又通过新能 源汽车更高补贴比例，强化绿色消费导向，有利于推动中高端车型消费和产业升级。 全国统一置换更新补贴标准。为规范汽车置换更新政策实施，2026年汽车置换更新按新车销售价格（价税合计）定比例补贴，并设定上限。个人消费者 换购符合条件新能源乘用车的，补贴比例为8％，最高1.5万元；换购符合条件燃油乘用车的，补贴比例为6％，最高1.3万元。补贴标准略低于报废更 新，体现出消费品以旧换新优先支持报废更新，加快经济社会绿色转型的政策导向。 优化置换更新新车车型范围。此次置换更新优化了对新车的范围要求，着力引导汽车市场向绿色低碳方向转型。消费者购买的新车须在《减免车辆购置 税的新能源汽车车型目录》的新能源乘用车 ...

Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2026, focusing on precision and coordination to support economic growth and structural transformation[10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has launched an action plan for the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence, marking a new phase in industrial intelligence development[12] - A green consumption promotion plan was issued, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and support the transition to a circular economy[9] International Developments - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, marking the largest contraction since 2024, with inventory reduction being a major drag[18] - The Eurozone's harmonized CPI fell to 2% in December, indicating a return to target levels, while core inflation remains resilient[20] - The U.S. has initiated a global sale of Venezuelan oil, which may disrupt global energy trade and escalate geopolitical tensions[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.94% week-on-week, while iron ore and copper prices rose by 1.88% and 3.60%, respectively[24] - Domestic real estate sales saw a significant decline of 62% week-on-week, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[24] - The DXI index for storage DRAM prices rose by 7.45% week-on-week, reflecting positive trends in emerging industries[33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negative factors, and sentiment is easing. In Q1, the issuance scale of government bonds is expected to be roughly the same as in the same period of 2025, but the specific proportion of ultra - long bonds remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year has increased short - term profit - taking needs, and the market may enter a consolidation phase, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, as the manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations and the economic data of that month may improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue their weak and volatile trend in the short term [103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TS2603, TF2603, T2603, TL2603) fell by 0.12%, 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.48% respectively. The trading volumes of the TS, TF, and TL main contracts increased, while that of the T main contract decreased. The open interests of the TF, T, and TS main contracts decreased, and that of the TL main contract increased [14][29]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On January 6, the People's Bank of China planned to use various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently in 2026, and strengthen financial market supervision. The same day, China banned the export of dual - use items to Japanese military users. On January 7, eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". On January 8, the central bank conducted a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The US initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, and the US President Trump expected to "manage" Venezuela for many years and increase the military budget [35][36]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year yields, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields widened. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contract yields narrowed. The spreads between the current and next quarters of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts widened, while those of the 2 - year and 5 - year contracts narrowed [44][50][56]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [67]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - Shibor rates for overnight and 1 - week terms increased, while those for 2 - week and 1 - month terms decreased. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47%. Most Treasury bond spot yields increased, with the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rising by about 3.75bp and 5.45bp to 1.88% and 2.31% respectively [71]. - The spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields fluctuated [76]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.3236 trillion yuan due. The 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase was rolled over, and the treasury cash fixed - term deposit of 6 billion yuan matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2449 trillion yuan. The weighted - average DR007 rate fell to around 1.47% [81]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 976.86 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 412.35 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 564.51 billion yuan [86]. - **Market Sentiment** - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0128, up 160 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB narrowed. - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated, and the VIX index increased. - The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In December, macro - policies continued to take effect, inflation moderately rebounded, the CPI year - on - year increase continued to expand, and the PPI decline narrowed to 1.9%. For the whole year, the CPI was flat compared with the previous year, and the PPI was still in the negative range. In December, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both improved and returned above the boom - bust line. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [102]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US job market continued to cool down. The ADP employment in December increased to 41,000 but was still lower than expected. The number of job openings in November dropped to a 14 - month low. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly fell to 47.9, the lowest since 2024, while the non - manufacturing PMI rebounded, indicating the resilience of the service industry. The US raid on Venezuela caused geopolitical shocks [102].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 碳酸锂市场周报 刚需采买降库放缓，锂价或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+17.69%，振幅21.15%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价143420元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色产品供给、提升绿色服务消费、 创新绿色消费模式等7方面20条具体举措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。基本面原料端，锂矿报价随着碳酸锂价格不 断走高，由于碳酸锂盘面价格较优，或存在一定套保空间，令原料成交情况有所转好。供给端，由于盘面套保空间存 在，冶炼厂参与后或将保持较为积极的生产状态，国内供给量保持小幅提升态势。需求端，下游电池正极材料厂对当 下高价锂心里接受度普遍较低，采购策略多以刚需采买为主，故市场观望情绪仍较浓，相对谨慎。整体来看，碳酸锂 基本面或处于供给小增、需求谨慎的阶段，产业库存较上周基本持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 consumer market will be led by green consumption, supported by new policies that optimize subsidies for energy-efficient products and promote the transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy sources [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - Nine government departments have jointly issued a document outlining 20 measures to promote green consumption, establishing a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives, constraints, and guarantees [2]. - The new policies include a subsidy of 15% of the sales price for energy-efficient home appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per item, and prioritize the replacement of old operational vehicles with electric ones [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand Trends - Consumer demand is shifting from basic availability to quality and sustainability, with a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances, which grew over 10% during the New Year holiday [2]. - The latest data indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 18.3 million vehicles will be replaced under the old-for-new program, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of home appliances replaced will meet first-level energy or water efficiency standards [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in sustainable practices, including the development of green supply chains and the use of energy-efficient facilities [3]. - The transition to a circular economy is being facilitated by the establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models, shifting business models from linear to circular [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Corporate Perspectives - Green consumption should be perceived as a cost-effective choice rather than a premium option, with energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles offering long-term savings and better experiences [4]. - Companies are encouraged to view green transformation as a source of competitive advantage through technological innovation and resource optimization, which can lead to cost savings and new revenue streams [4].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) turning from decline to increase during midday trading on January 9. Notable gainers included Lao Pu Gold, Mao Ge Ping, Kang Shi Fu Holdings, Bosideng, and Shenzhou International, while major decliners were Mixue Group, Pop Mart, Smoore International, Mengniu Dairy, and WH Group [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) has seen a net inflow of funds for two consecutive trading days, accumulating a total of 36.63 million yuan [1] - On January 5, the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments released a notice on implementing green consumption promotion actions, outlining 20 specific measures across seven areas to accelerate the green transformation of consumption patterns and support high-quality economic development [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities believes that the notice on green consumption aligns with the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan, embedding green consumption into the overall development strategy and providing core support for green transformation from the consumption end [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading companies across various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Yum China, Anta Sports, Nongfu Spring, and WH Group [2]

联合新闻网近日发文称，为刺激内需，中国内地2025年安排人民币3000亿元超长期特别国债资金，用于支持消费 品"以旧换新"政策，也就是民众口中的"国补"。据官方公布数据显示，"国补"政策全年带动相关商品销售额超过人民 币2.6兆元，惠及超过3.6亿人次。 【环球网财经综合报道】日前，商务部等九部门联合发文实施绿色消费推进行动，从丰富绿色产品供给、提升绿色服 务消费、创新绿色消费模式等7方面20条具体举措。支持消费者购买新能源汽车。鼓励购买获得绿色产品认证的绿色 智能家电产品、无氟空调等。 报道还提到，"以旧换新"政策自2024年9月全面实施以来，已累计发放直达消费者的补贴超过4.8亿份。2025年每卖出2 辆家用新车，就有1辆享受了汽车以旧换新补贴。该政策也让更多消费者选择到店体验购物并享受补贴，家电以旧换 新线下实体门店较为集聚的商圈，周边1公里范围内相关商户消费额增长超30%。 此外，2026年将继续推动消费品"以旧换新"政策，首批625亿元人民币超长期特别国债已在2025年12月30日公告下 达。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption, outlining 20 specific measures across seven areas, including home appliances and home decoration [1] - The notice encourages the purchase of green certified products, such as energy-efficient home appliances and fluorine-free air conditioners, and aims to enhance the certification system for green smart appliances [1][3] - Recent data shows a significant increase in sales of green energy-saving products, with a 36.2% year-on-year growth in large-screen TV sales during the New Year period, and substantial growth in sales of smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches [1] Group 2 - Local policies promoting green consumption have been implemented, such as the "National Subsidy Service Station" in Taiyuan, which has led to a 137% year-on-year increase in sales for a major home appliance company [2] - Shanghai plans to continue its old-for-new subsidy program for home appliances and digital smart products until 2026, covering various energy-efficient appliances and smart devices [2] - The Chinese home appliance market is projected to reach a retail scale of 751 billion yuan from January to September 2025, with a 10.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a shift in consumer focus towards quality and sustainability [2] Group 3 - The continuous rollout of policies aimed at promoting green consumption is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with unified certification standards enhancing market demand for green smart appliances [3] - Experts emphasize that green consumption encompasses the entire lifecycle of products, from production to recycling, and the recent notice aims to cover this full chain [4] - Companies are encouraged to develop high-efficiency, low-water products and integrate them into smart home ecosystems, with a growing demand for green building materials and prefabricated renovations driven by policy support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the green consumption market in 2026 will be led by policies and initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable consumption practices across various sectors, including appliances, transportation, and agriculture [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A joint announcement by nine government departments outlines 20 measures to promote green consumption, establishing a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives, constraints, and guarantees [2]. - The new policies include subsidies for replacing old appliances with energy-efficient models, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and a focus on transitioning old commercial vehicles to electric ones [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand Trends - Consumer demand is shifting from basic availability to quality and sustainability, with a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [2]. - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 18.3 million vehicles will be replaced under the old-for-new policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of replaced appliances will meet first-level energy or water efficiency standards [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in sustainable practices, leading to a transformation in the manufacturing sector towards greener supply chains and production methods [3]. - The establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models are expected to shift business models from linear to circular economies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Business Perspectives - For consumers, green products should not be perceived as expensive but rather as cost-effective choices that provide long-term savings and health benefits [4]. - Companies are encouraged to view green transformation as an opportunity for innovation and growth rather than merely a compliance requirement, which can lead to cost savings and enhanced product value [4]. Group 5: Environmental Impact - The widespread adoption of green consumption is anticipated to result in significant environmental benefits, contributing to cleaner air, water, and overall improved ecological conditions [5].